Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a notable increase in overseas contracts despite domestic challenges [3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 489.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.2% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.7 billion yuan, down 10.1% [3]. - For Q2 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 232.4 billion yuan, a decline of 3.6% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 5.5 billion yuan, down 5.6% [3]. - The company's gross margin and net margin for H1 2025 were 8.8% and 2.6%, respectively, both down by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [5][7]. Group 2: Contract and Revenue Breakdown - The total new contracts signed in H1 2025 amounted to 1,056.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.0% year-on-year, with a slight recovery in Q2 where new contracts increased by 2.4% [4]. - Domestic new contracts were 942.08 billion yuan, down 8.4%, while overseas contracts surged by 57.4% to 114.09 billion yuan [4]. - The engineering contracting segment saw a significant decline in urban rail contracts, down 64.8% year-on-year, while railway engineering contracts grew by 39.3% [4]. Group 3: Segment Performance - Revenue from domestic and overseas operations in H1 2025 was 452.11 billion yuan and 37.09 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.8% and an increase of 20.3% [5]. - The engineering contracting, planning and design consulting, and real estate development segments experienced revenue declines of 3.8%, 15.7%, and 34.2%, respectively [5]. - The green and emerging industries showed strong growth, with new contracts increasing by 15.1% and 44.5% year-on-year [4].

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Core Viewpoint - Both China Railway and China Railway Construction reported declines in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, attributed to macroeconomic conditions and intensified industry competition [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - China Railway's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 511.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.93%, with a net profit of 10.27 billion yuan, down 21.59% [1]. - China Railway Construction's revenue was 489.20 billion yuan, with a net profit of 9.88 billion yuan, reflecting declines of 5.22% and 11.40% respectively [1]. - Both companies experienced a drop in gross margins across their main business segments, with China Railway's real estate development gross margin at 9.15%, down 3.42 percentage points from the previous year [1][2]. Group 2: New Contracts - China Railway signed new contracts worth 1,108.69 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a 2.8% increase year-on-year, with domestic and overseas contract growth rates of -1.2% and 51.6% respectively [2]. - China Railway Construction's new contract total was 1,056.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.04%, with domestic and overseas contract growth rates of -8.37% and 57.43% respectively [2]. Group 3: Strategic Outlook - The companies plan to enhance their operational capabilities and innovate business models in the second half of 2025, focusing on key markets, projects, and clients to improve performance [3]. - China Railway aims for a total revenue target of approximately 1,132 billion yuan for 2025, having completed 45.15% of this target in the first half [1].

Core Viewpoint - The revenue and profit of China Railway decreased in the first half of 2025 due to macroeconomic conditions and intensified industry competition [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Railway reported a revenue of 511.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.93%, and a net profit of 10.27 billion yuan, down 21.59% [2]. - China Railway Construction also experienced declines, with revenues of 489.20 billion yuan and a net profit of 9.88 billion yuan, representing decreases of 5.22% and 11.40% respectively [2]. Business Strategy and Goals - For the second half of 2025, the company plans to focus on high-quality growth, accelerate reform and innovation, and strengthen risk management [3]. - The target for total revenue in 2025 is approximately 1,132.0 billion yuan, indicating that the company has completed 45.15% of its annual target in the first half [3]. Margin Analysis - The gross margins across major business segments, including infrastructure construction, design consulting, equipment manufacturing, and real estate development, have all declined, with the real estate development margin at 9.15%, down 3.42 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - China Railway Construction noted a similar trend in its five business segments, with declines in engineering contracting, planning and design consulting, and real estate development, while industrial manufacturing and logistics saw margin increases [3]. Contracting Activity - In the first half of 2025, China Railway signed new contracts worth 1,108.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with domestic and international contracts growing at rates of -1.2% and 51.6% respectively [3][4]. - China Railway Construction's new contracts totaled 1,056.17 billion yuan, down 4.04%, with domestic and international contracts decreasing by 8.37% and increasing by 57.43% respectively [3]. International Business Development - The growth in new contracts for China Railway was significantly driven by overseas business, which achieved a contract value of 124.87 billion yuan, up 51.6%, accounting for 11.3% of total new contracts [4]. - The company plans to continue focusing on key markets and projects, enhancing operational capabilities and exploring new business models to mitigate market fluctuations [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of China Railway Construction Corporation (601186.SH/1186.HK) [1] Core Views - The company has shown signs of operational recovery in Q2, with significant growth in overseas business. The new contracts signed in Q2 have increased by 2.4% year-on-year, despite a decline in total new contracts for the first half of the year [6][7] - The company's revenue for H1 2025 was 489.2 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.2% and 10.1% respectively [5][6] - The overseas new contract signing has surged by 57.4% year-on-year, indicating strong international demand [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 489.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 10.7 billion yuan, down 10.1% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, the revenue was 232.4 billion yuan, with a net profit of 5.6 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 3.6% and 5.6% respectively [5][6] - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 8.8%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin also decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 2.6% [7][8] Contract and Revenue Breakdown - The total new contracts signed in H1 2025 amounted to 1,056.17 billion yuan, a decline of 4.0% year-on-year. However, the overseas contracts grew significantly, with domestic contracts at 942.08 billion yuan (down 8.4%) and international contracts at 114.09 billion yuan (up 57.4%) [6] - The engineering contracting segment saw a notable decline in urban rail projects, which dropped by 64.8% year-on-year, while railway engineering, power engineering, and highway engineering experienced growth of 39.3%, 10.9%, and 10.7% respectively [6] Profitability and Cash Flow - The company’s operating cash flow for H1 2025 was -79.46 billion yuan, an improvement of 2.22 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [8] - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 22.3 billion, 22.9 billion, and 23.5 billion yuan respectively, maintaining the "Buy" rating for both A and H shares [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the construction and decoration industry, highlighting specific companies as key investment targets [4][7]. Core Insights - The construction sector has experienced significant fluctuations over the past sixteen years, with eight winning phases (40% of the time) and seven losing phases (60% of the time) [1][12]. - The current market environment is characterized by a gradual easing of policies since late 2021, which has historically correlated with better performance in the construction sector [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of thematic influences, such as the "Belt and Road Initiative" and "PPP" projects, which have driven substantial short-term excess returns in the sector [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Historical Review of the Construction Sector - The report divides the historical performance of the construction sector from June 2008 to December 2024 into fifteen phases based on excess returns relative to the CSI 300 index [11]. - Winning phases include significant periods of policy easing and economic recovery, while losing phases often coincide with tighter monetary policies [1][12]. 2. Policy Cycle and Market Trends - The report identifies four major policy cycles since 2008, with the current phase being a gradual easing that began in late 2021 [1][3]. - The correlation between excess returns and macroeconomic indicators is noted to be weak, with expectations of policy changes being more influential [1][3]. 3. Thematic Characteristics and Valuation - The construction sector's valuation is currently low, with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 0.8, which is below historical averages and indicates potential for rebound [2][3]. - The report highlights that the sector's performance is sensitive to thematic catalysts, suggesting that upcoming regional initiatives could provide investment opportunities [3][4]. 4. Comparison with Banking Sector - The construction sector is compared to the banking sector, noting similarities in business models and sensitivity to credit environment changes [3]. - The current price-to-book ratio of the construction sector relative to banks is at a critical point, suggesting potential for significant excess returns if historical patterns hold [3]. 5. Investment Recommendations - Key investment targets include leading companies benefiting from strategic infrastructure projects, such as Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Metallurgical Group, and China Communications Construction [4][7]. - The report also suggests monitoring local leaders in Xinjiang and companies involved in coal chemical projects as potential high-return investments [4].

Core Viewpoint - The National Enterprise Win ETF (159719) has shown a positive performance with a recent increase of 0.63%, reflecting a broader trend of rising profits and dividends among Chinese listed companies, particularly state-owned enterprises [3][4]. Performance Summary - As of September 1, 2025, the National Enterprise Win ETF has achieved a net value increase of 51.31% over the past three years, ranking 215 out of 1860 index equity funds, placing it in the top 11.56% [4]. - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 14.61% since its inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gains reaching 7 months and a total increase of 24.70% [4]. - The average monthly return during rising months is 4.14%, with a total annual profit percentage of 100.00% and a historical three-year holding profit probability of 100.00% [4]. - Over the past three months, the ETF has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized return of 11.82% [4]. Liquidity and Scale - The ETF experienced a turnover rate of 6.84% with a trading volume of 4.9045 million yuan on September 1, 2025, and an average daily trading volume of 16.6744 million yuan over the past year [3]. - In the past week, the ETF's scale increased by 2.187 million yuan, ranking it in the top third among comparable funds [3]. - The number of shares increased by 2 million in the past week, also placing it in the top third among comparable funds [3]. Fee Structure and Tracking Precision - The management fee for the National Enterprise Win ETF is 0.25%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [5]. - The tracking error for the ETF over the past month is 0.060%, indicating high tracking precision compared to similar funds [5]. Index Composition - The ETF closely tracks the FTSE China National Enterprises Open Win Index, which reflects the performance of Chinese state-owned enterprises listed in mainland China and Hong Kong, focusing on globalization and sustainable development [5]. - The index consists of 100 constituent stocks, including 80 A-share companies and 20 companies listed in Hong Kong [5]. Top Holdings - The top holdings in the National Enterprise Win ETF include: - China Petroleum (601857) with a weight of 15.94% and a price increase of 2.18% - China Petrochemical (600028) with a weight of 11.93% and a price increase of 1.40% - China State Construction (601668) with a weight of 9.59% and a price increase of 0.18% [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the construction industry [2][4]. Core Insights - The construction industry faced pressure on revenue and profit in H1 2025, with total revenue of 3.75 trillion, down 5.7% year-on-year, and net profit of 87.5 billion, down 6.5% year-on-year [2][7]. - The industry experienced a relative stability in gross margin and net margin, with a gross margin of 9.9% and a net margin of 2.33% in H1 2025 [8][19]. - Operating cash flow showed improvement, with a net cash flow of -477.4 billion, a reduction in outflow by 15.1 billion year-on-year [3][12]. - The industry’s return on equity (ROE) decreased by 0.31 percentage points to 2.50% in H1 2025, indicating pressure on profitability [16][27]. Summary by Sections Financial Overview - In H1 2025, major listed companies in the construction industry reported revenues of 3.75 trillion, a decrease of 5.7% year-on-year, and net profits of 87.5 billion, down 6.5% year-on-year [2][7]. - Quarterly revenues for Q1 and Q2 were 1.84 trillion and 1.91 trillion, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 6.2% and 5.2% [2][7]. Profitability Analysis - The industry maintained a gross margin of 9.9%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 2.33%, down 0.02 percentage points [8][19]. - The ROE for the industry decreased to 2.50%, reflecting the impact of reduced investment and increased costs [16][27]. Cash Flow Improvement - The operating cash flow net amount was -477.4 billion, showing an improvement with a reduction in cash outflow by 15.1 billion year-on-year [3][12]. - The cash collection ratio improved to 103% in Q1 and 87% in Q2, with year-on-year changes of +0.85 percentage points and +11.65 percentage points, respectively [3][12]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a shift in focus from growth to quality improvement among state-owned enterprises, with an emphasis on cash flow management and cost control [4][19]. - The construction industry is expected to see a recovery in revenue and cash flow in the second half of 2025, driven by anticipated government investment stimulus [4][19].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in net profit and revenue for the first half of 2025, aligning with expectations, while maintaining a "buy" rating for future profitability forecasts [1][3]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue was 489.199 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.22%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.701 billion, down 10.09% year-on-year, which met expectations [1]. - The gross margin and net profit margin for H1 2025 were 8.84% and 2.19%, respectively, showing a decrease of 0.28 percentage points and 0.12 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The total expense ratio was 4.85%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points year-on-year, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing mixed changes [1]. - Asset and credit impairment losses amounted to 2.406 billion, accounting for 0.49% of revenue, an increase of 0.05 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1]. - Quarterly breakdown for Q1 and Q2 2025 showed revenues of 256.762 billion and 232.437 billion, with year-on-year declines of 6.61% and 3.63%, and net profits of 5.151 billion and 5.551 billion, with declines of 14.51% and 5.55% respectively [1]. Business Segments - The engineering contracting business saw a slight decline in revenue, totaling 434.6 billion, down 3.77% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 7.43%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points [2]. - The real estate segment generated revenue of 20.755 billion, a significant drop of 34.21%, with a gross margin of 9.68%, down 1.76 percentage points [2]. - Domestic revenue was 452.11 billion, down 6.84% year-on-year, while overseas revenue increased by 20.29% to 37.089 billion, with a gross margin of 6.53%, up 0.29 percentage points [2]. Cash Flow and Receivables - The net cash flow from operating activities for H1 2025 was -79.457 billion, a decrease in outflow by 2.219 billion year-on-year [2]. - The cash collection ratio was 97.7%, an increase of 1.62 percentage points compared to the previous year, while accounts receivable increased by 62.191 billion and inventory decreased by 21.07 billion [2]. - The cash payment ratio was 112.9%, up 2.06 percentage points year-on-year, with accounts payable increasing by 63.545 billion and prepayments rising by 2.32 billion [2]. Investment Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 21.4 billion, 21.7 billion, and 22.2 billion, with growth rates of -3.6%, +1.3%, and +2.5% respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 5X for each year [3].

Industry Overview - Self-adhesive membranes are a new type of waterproof material characterized by low-temperature flexibility, self-healing properties, and strong adhesion, allowing for quick construction at room temperature and compliance with environmental standards [1][2] - The production of self-adhesive membranes in China is projected to grow from 402 million square meters in 2015 to 1.477 billion square meters by 2024, driven by advancements in technology and expanding applications [1][8] Industry Development History - The self-adhesive membrane industry in China began in the 1990s with the introduction of products from international brands, followed by local production efforts [4] - By 2000, advancements in technology led to mass production of self-adhesive waterproof membranes, and industry standards were established in 2002 to ensure product quality [4][5] Industry Supply Chain - The supply chain consists of upstream raw material suppliers (asphalt, polymer resins, polyethylene films), midstream manufacturers who produce various self-adhesive membrane products, and downstream applications in construction and infrastructure [6] - The production of petroleum asphalt, a key component, has seen fluctuations, with a projected output of 34.508 million tons in 2024, down from 62.88 million tons in 2020 [6][7] Market Demand and Trends - The self-adhesive membrane industry is closely linked to the real estate sector, which is currently experiencing a downturn, impacting demand [7] - However, infrastructure investment remains robust, with a 3.2% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2025, providing some demand for self-adhesive membranes [7][8] Competitive Landscape - Major players in the self-adhesive membrane industry include Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co., Ltd. and Keshun Waterproof Technology Co., Ltd., which leverage technology and brand strength to maintain market leadership [9][11] - Smaller companies focus on niche products and regional markets due to limited resources compared to larger firms [9] Future Industry Trends - The industry is expected to see increased concentration as stricter environmental regulations and rising production costs lead to the elimination of less competitive firms [14] - Companies are expanding internationally to seek new growth opportunities, with notable efforts from leading firms to establish overseas operations [15] - Government policies are increasingly supportive of high-performance waterproof materials, enhancing the growth prospects for self-adhesive membranes [16]