Core Viewpoint - Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is currently the only viable solution for aviation decarbonization, with the HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) route using Used Cooking Oil (UCO) being the first to commercialize [2] Group 1: SAF Supply and Demand - The demand for SAF is expected to rise significantly, with the EU's ReFuel EU Aviation and the UK's SAF directive set to take effect in 2025, mandating SAF blending ratios of at least 2% by 2025, increasing to 70% by 2050 [2] - The EU's SAF demand is projected to reach 105 million tons in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 15% from 2025 to 2050 [2] - In China, the SAF pilot program is set to begin in 2024, with a potential demand of 786 million tons per year if a 20% blending ratio is achieved [3] Group 2: UCO Supply and Demand - China is the largest supplier of waste cooking oil, with a theoretical annual production of 12 million tons, but only 4 million tons are currently utilized [3] - The demand for UCO is expected to increase significantly due to the transition to SAF, with projections indicating that by 2030, UCO demand could reach approximately 233 million tons in the EU alone [3] - In China, the demand for UCO is expected to exceed the current utilization capacity, driven by the transition to SAF production [3] Group 3: UCO Value Enhancement - The price of UCO in China is currently around 7,150 RMB per ton, while bio-jet fuel prices range from 15,000 to 20,000 RMB per ton [4] - The potential price elasticity for UCO could increase by 19% to 63% based on the conversion rates to SAF and processing costs [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing anti-involution in the domestic polyester chain, with the Egyptian filament project opening new growth opportunities for the company in the long term [1] - By the end of December 2025, major domestic polyester filament manufacturers plan to implement self-discipline production cuts to maintain prices, with a planned reduction of 10% for POY and 15% for FDY, and further reductions expected around the Chinese New Year [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders faced pressure in the third quarter, primarily due to PTA profitability impacts [1] Group 2 - The large refining industry continues to push for anti-involution, which is expected to lead to an upward trend in the polyester chain's prosperity [1] - The Egyptian filament project plans to add 360 acres of land for the construction of manufacturing plants for POY, FDY, and DTY, aiming for an annual production capacity of 360,000 tons of functional polyester fibers [1] - The project will also involve leasing a terminal at a nearby port for tank area construction, which will help the company avoid trade barriers and respond to tariffs and trade wars, enhancing its international influence and market competitiveness [1] Group 3 - With the ongoing anti-involution in the polyester chain, the company's profitability is expected to improve in the future [1] - The company is viewed positively for its future growth potential, with an initial coverage rating of "Buy" assigned [1]

Core Insights - The release of the "Industrial Internet and Artificial Intelligence Integration Empowerment Action Plan" is expected to significantly benefit Dongtu Technology [1] Group 1: Policy Alignment - The action plan emphasizes accelerating the intelligent upgrade of industrial networks and promoting the transformation of key industries, which aligns with the company's core products such as TSN chips and AUTBUS bus chips [1] - The policy highlights the need to enhance the intelligence level of industrial internet platforms, which matches the company's self-developed industrial operating system and control systems, providing foundational technical support for the integration of industrial internet and artificial intelligence [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Growth Potential - The action plan sets clear development goals and quantitative indicators for 2026-2028, likely leading to a surge in market demand for industrial networks and control systems, thus providing a certain growth space for the company's core business [1] - The company has been dedicated to researching foundational technologies for the industrial internet and is focused on building an industrial intelligent neural network platform, positioning it well to benefit from the action plan [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 86 million, 152 million, and 202 million yuan respectively, and continues to hold a "buy" rating [1]

东吴证券研报指出，《工业互联网和人工智能融合赋能行动方案》发布，东土科技有望充分受益。此次 《行动方案》的核心要求与公司业务布局契合，具体体现在两大维度：其一，政策明确提出"加快工业 网络开放智能升级，推进重点行业开展新型工业网络改造"，要求构建"满足人工智能工业应用高通量、 低时延、高可靠、低抖动通信需求的新型工业网络"，这与公司TSN芯片、AUTBUS总线芯片等核心产 品的技术定位匹配；其二，政策强调"提高工业互联网平台智能化水平，强化要素连接、智能分析能 力""推动工业控制系统等智能化升级"，公司自主工业操作系统与工业控制体系恰好承接这一政策需 求，为工业互联网与人工智能的融合提供底层技术支撑。《行动方案》明确了2026-2028年的核心发展 目标与量化指标，有望直接带动工业网络、工业控制等核心赛道的市场需求爆发，为公司核心业务带来 确定性增长空间。公司长期致力于工业互联网底层根技术的研究，专注于构建工业智能神经网络平台技 术，此次《行动方案》的发布，预计公司有望充分受益。维持2025-2027年归母净利润预测为 0.86/1.52/2.02亿元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities report indicates that Cangge Mining's three main product prices are on the rise, suggesting potential earnings elasticity [1] Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate is projected at 150,000 yuan per ton, with an expected profit contribution of 1.3 billion yuan in 2026, indicating significant growth potential [1] Potassium - The company guides for a stable sales volume of 1.04 million tons of potassium chloride in 2026, while accelerating the progress of the 1 million ton capacity in Laos [1] - Price expectations for 2026 are maintained at over 3,000 yuan per ton, with production costs at 970 yuan per ton, leading to an anticipated profit contribution of 1.5 billion yuan [1] Copper - Copper prices are expected to rise in Q4, with new capacity being released, resulting in significant earnings elasticity for 2026 [1] Profit Forecast - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards from 3.82 billion/5.73 billion/8.64 billion yuan to 3.88 billion/7.46 billion/9 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 50%/92%/21% [1] - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 35x/18x/15x, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

东吴证券研报指出，潮宏基是我国年轻时尚的黄金珠宝品牌，公司战略清晰，在持续扩展门店网络、优 化渠道结构的同时，正加快国际化布局步伐。作为以时尚设计见长的珠宝品牌，其"国潮"产品系列精准 契合年轻消费群体对个性化、文化内涵首饰的需求，品牌差异化优势明确。考虑到公司渠道结构持续改 善，该行上调公司2025-2027年归母净利润预测从4.3/6.6/7.9亿元至4.8/6.7/8.1亿元，同比分别 +147%/+41%/+20%，2025-2027年PE对应最新收盘价分别为23/17/14倍，维持"买入"评级。 ...

2026年1月6日，复旦大学经济学院举办了"南土国际金融政策圆桌会第9期"，同时也是"如何看待当前宏 观金融形势系列"的第二场活动。本次圆桌会聚焦"当前贸易顺差问题"，与会学者围绕贸易结构转型、 全球价值链把控以及国内外需失衡等多重因素，系统分析了中国贸易顺差创历史新高的深层原因，并深 入探讨了中国在应对外部保护主义挑战、化解国内内卷式竞争及提升外汇与金融安全稳定性等方面面临 的现实制约及可行战略选择。 东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲指出，2025年前11个月，中国贸易顺差规模创历史新高，首次突破万亿美元 大关。虽然贸易顺差总量创历史新高，但其占GDP比重在全世界仍属中等水平。同时，顺差增长背后也 伴随着市场结构的深刻调整。芦哲认为，与2018年相比，中国贸易顺差的市场结构已发生深刻变化：美 欧市场占比明显下降，而"一带一路"沿线国家和新兴市场的重要性显著提升。这种多元化的市场布局， 为中国应对外部经贸摩擦提供了更稳健的战略回旋空间。 探究其中的原因，芦哲进一步分析认为，顺差结构的改善根植于国内产业与产品体系的深度升级。随着 加工贸易占比显著下降，技术密集型且具备较强定价权的产品已成为出口支柱。这不仅提升了中国在全 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Dongwu Securities has given a "buy" rating to Xinfengming (603225.SH) based on several positive indicators for the company and the industry [1] - The company's profitability is expected to improve significantly year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - The refining and chemical industry is experiencing a reduction in internal competition, which is likely to lead to an upward trend in the polyester chain's market conditions [1] - The company plans to invest $280 million in a long filament project in Egypt [1] Group 2 - There are challenges faced by the solar energy industry, including rising costs of raw materials like silver, leading to difficult decision-making for companies [1]

格隆汇1月13日｜东吴证券研报指出，仙乐健康为保健品CDMO龙头企业，主营保健食品及功能性食品 的研发制造，2012-2024年收入/归母净利润CAGR均为18%，经营稳健，领跑行业。公司具备多地研发 中心，研发创新及洞察能力领先，能够第一时间"捕捉"市场热点，通过完备的产线、灵活的供应体系， 尽快实现产品落地并反哺重要客户；同时创新剂型（爆珠、萃优酪®等）、延展品类（六大高潜赛道如 抗衰、益生菌、美丽健康、心脑代谢、免疫提升、运动营养）。考虑到公司海外市场空间较大，且研发 及供应链端具备明显竞争力，认为当下估值具备性价比，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities initiates coverage on RiboBio (06938) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 128.3, highlighting its leadership in the domestic small RNA field and the potential of its core product targeting FXI to become a billion-dollar FIC drug [1] Group 1: Company Overview - RiboBio, established in 2007, focuses on siRNA drug development for chronic diseases and possesses globally competitive proprietary GalNac delivery technology [1] - The company has a strategic partnership with Boehringer Ingelheim, potentially earning up to €2.36 billion in milestone payments, enhancing its growth ceiling [1] - RiboBio's RiboGalSTAR technology platform is complemented by RiboOncoSTAR and RiboPepSTAR platforms, positioning the company at the forefront of global small RNA drug development [1] Group 2: Market Potential - The global small RNA drug market is projected to grow from USD 5.7 billion in 2024 to USD 54.9 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 21%-29% from 2024 to 2034, indicating a rapid growth trajectory [2] - RiboBio, as a leading player in the domestic small RNA sector, is expected to translate its technological barriers into commercial value [2] Group 3: Product Pipeline and Clinical Progress - The FXI siRNA product has the potential to tap into a market space worth billions, addressing the clinical pain points of existing anticoagulant drugs while demonstrating long-lasting effects and safety [3] - The company is advancing its FXI siRNA into Phase 2b clinical trials, following promising Phase 1 results showing strong anticoagulant effects without severe adverse events [3] - RiboBio's pipeline includes several promising candidates targeting various chronic diseases, with significant patient populations and market opportunities [4] - The APOC3 siRNA has entered Phase 2 clinical trials in the EU, while the PCSK9 siRNA has exclusive rights in Greater China, maximizing global value [4] - The HBV siRNA is in Phase 2 global MRCT clinical trials, aiming for functional cure in a market with approximately 280 million infected individuals [4]