Core Viewpoint - The domestic excavator demand is expected to grow at an average annual rate of over 30% from 2025 to 2028, with peak sales projected to reach 250,000 units by 2028, although actual sales in 2025 may fall short due to funding availability issues [1][2] Domestic Market Summary - In the first ten months of 2025, domestic excavator sales increased by 19.6% year-on-year, indicating a significant improvement compared to 2024, marking a comprehensive recovery in the domestic construction machinery sector [1] - The sales of small excavators are expected to dominate in 2025, driven by ample central special government bonds, while the performance of medium and large excavators is hindered by poor local bond funding [1][2] - The overall trend indicates a mild recovery phase characterized by a lower slope but a longer cycle due to funding disruptions [2] Export Market Summary - Overseas excavator sales have been in decline since peaking in 2021, with a continuous drop expected from 2022 to 2025, primarily influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cycle [1][2] - A new upward cycle in overseas demand is anticipated to begin in 2026 as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting phase, potentially creating a resonance effect with domestic demand [2] Profitability and Cost Efficiency - The construction machinery sector is experiencing improved profitability due to increased capacity utilization and ongoing cost reduction efforts, with notable increases in net profit margins for major companies like Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG [2] - For instance, in the first three quarters of 2025, Sany Heavy Industry's net profit margin increased by 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] Investment Recommendations - The construction machinery sector is identified as being at the beginning of an upward cycle, with projected profit growth of over 20% in the next 2-3 years, and core stocks are currently valued at only 10-16 times their projected profits for 2026, suggesting a strong investment opportunity [3]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced significant volatility and downward pressure in 2023, leading to net value declines for bond funds and increased redemption pressures for investors [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since the beginning of the year, the bond market has shown frequent fluctuations, with the 30-year treasury futures price retreating over 8% from its peak in February [2][3]. - As of December 5, nearly 800 bond funds reported negative annual returns, with 215 funds yielding less than -1% [7][8]. Group 2: Causes of Market Decline - The recent decline in the bond market is attributed to year-end profit-taking by institutions, a lack of clear positive catalysts, and selling pressure from the stock market affecting bond prices [5][6]. - The bond market has not exhibited the typical "stock-bond seesaw" behavior, particularly in the long-duration bonds, which have shown significant interest rate increases [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the bond market may face continued downward pressure due to a lack of willingness among major institutional investors to take a bullish stance [9]. - Despite the current challenges, there is potential for a rebound in the bond market after year-end adjustments, as institutions may still have a demand for increased allocations [9][10].

为确保压力测试全流程高效推进、精准落地，证券公司需构建"组织—制度—数据—模型—信息技术"五位 一体的保障体系，协同发力、全方位支撑测试工作的实效性。其中，组织保障聚焦压实责任、强化协同， 制度保障侧重规范流程、明确标准，数据保障着力夯实基础、确保质量，模型保障注重优化方法、准确计 量，信息技术保障旨在科技赋能、提升效率。 二、系统推进压力测试机制建设 （一）建立场景全覆盖机制 2023年10月召开的中央金融工作会议明确要求，"对风险早识别、早预警、早暴露、早处置"。近年来，监 管和自律部门高度重视，不断细化和完善压力测试的各项规范要求。同时，在金融市场日益复杂多变和证 券行业高速发展的背景下，证券公司自身面临着多方面的风险挑战。压力测试作为前瞻性和情景性的风险 管理方法，通过模拟可能发生的极端压力情景，能够有效帮助证券公司提前识别潜在风险、准确评估风险 承受能力、妥善应对各类风险，为科学高效的开展经营决策提供有力依据，对维护金融市场稳定、防范化 解系统性风险具有重要意义。 一、构建压力测试管理体系 压力测试基础工作在于构建并持续完善风险因子库、压力情景库以及传导模型库，实现模型与参数的统一 管理，同时建立定 ...

每经AI快讯，12月8日，苏州银行（002966）(002966.SZ)公告称，公司股东国发集团及其一致行动人东 吴证券于2025年7月1日至12月5日期间通过集中竞价交易增持公司股份4470.6654万股，占总股本的 1.00%，权益变动触及1%整数倍。增持后，国发集团及其一致行动人合计持有苏州银行71,530.5978万 股，占总股本的16.00%。本次增持为履行已作出的承诺，不会导致公司控制权变化。 ...

北京商报讯（记者 孟凡霞 周义力）12月8日，苏州银行发布公告，该行于2025年12月8日收到大股东苏 州国际发展集团有限公司（以下简称"国发集团"）出具的《关于权益变动的告知函》。国发集团及其一 致行动人东吴证券股份有限公司于2025年7月1日至2025年12月5日期间通过深圳证券交易所交易系统集 中竞价交易合计增持苏州银行股份4470.6654万股，占总股本的1.00%。本次增持后，大股东国发集团及 其一致行动人东吴证券合计持有苏州银行股份7.15亿股，占苏州银行总股本的16.00%，权益变动触及 1%整数倍。 ...

格隆汇12月8日丨苏州银行(002966.SZ)公布，收到大股东苏州国际发展集团有限公司（简称"国发集 团"）出具的《关于权益变动的告知函》。国发集团及其一致行动人东吴证券股份有限公司（简称"东吴 证券"）于2025年7月1日至2025年12月5日期间通过深圳证券交易所交易系统集中竞价交易合计增持本行 股份4,470.6654万股，占总股本的1.00%。本次增持后，大股东国发集团及其一致行动人东吴证券合计 持有本行股份71,530.5978万股，占本行总股本的16.00%，权益变动触及1%整数倍。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities (Hong Kong) initiates coverage on Junsheng Electronics (00699) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting its transition from the "Takata integration shadow" to a new phase of "global safety cash cow + smart automotive Tier 1 + robotics second curve" [1] Group 1: Automotive Safety Business - Junsheng Electronics has become one of the few suppliers capable of providing a complete passive safety system to multinational automakers, following the acquisition of KSS and Takata assets, with stable safety business revenue in the hundreds of billions [2] - The company is expected to achieve mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth in the safety business over the next three years, with steadily improving gross margins contributing to stable cash flow [2] Group 2: Smart Automotive Tier 1 - The automotive electronics segment focuses on smart cockpits, connected vehicles, ADAS/domain control, and new energy management systems, establishing a comprehensive product line and platform-based R&D system [3] - The company is continuously securing mid-to-high-end model projects due to its local responsiveness and global project experience, with breakthroughs in key domain control products like the Central Computing Unit (CCU) [3] Group 3: Robotics Business Development - Junsheng Electronics is extending its automotive safety and electronic technology capabilities into robotics, launching integrated solutions for robotic control and collaborating with leading robotics players [4] - Although the robotics business is currently in an early investment phase, it is expected to generate meaningful revenue within 3-5 years, providing valuation premiums [4] Group 4: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 62.6 billion, 67 billion, and 71.9 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 7%, and 7% respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.6 billion, 1.8 billion, and 2 billion yuan for the same period, with year-on-year growth rates of 67%, 12%, and 11% respectively [5]

从资金流向上来看，当日江苏国企改革板块主力资金净流出1.11亿元，游资资金净流出6038.8万元，散户 资金净流入1.71亿元。江苏国企改革板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600250 南京商旅 | | 1.04 Z | 35.21% | -4145.79万 | -14.07% | -6233.04万 | -21.15% | | 601555 | 东吴证券 | 4879.07万 | 6.69% | -3536.22万 | -4.85% | -1342.85万 | -1.84% | | 601688 华泰证券 | | 3750.00万 | 1.04% | -1.56 Z | -4.34% | 1.19 Z | 3.30% | | 002077 | 大港股份 | 2131.41万 | 6.45% | -833.37万 | -2.52% | -1298.03万 | -3.93% | ...

东吴证券研报指出，高能环境持续积极推进H股发行上市，深化国际化战略布局。融资就位，进军矿业 与海外拓展值得持续期待。董事、高管增持股份彰显信心。公司公告，公司董事、副总裁、财务总监孙 敏先生基于对公司未来发展的信心及公司长期投资价值的认可，以集中竞价的方式增持公司股份10万 股，累计增持金额70.2万元（不含交易费用）。董事、高管增持彰显信心。公司战略进军矿业，协同资 源化打开第二成长曲线；持续拓展海外业务，海外空间可期。维持"买入"评级。 ...

该行测算2025Q4至2026Q4潜在新增有效产能约为246.1万吨，在扣除因电力合同困境或电气设备故障预 计减产20-70万吨后，全球2026年实际贡献新增产量仅86-125万吨，较经该行预测的2025年全球产量增 长仅1.2%至1.7%;在逆全球化背景下，该行认为区域性的供需错配将进一步加快全球铝产业链重塑，海 外铝锭库存或在近几年或稳步走高，这将成为"新的需求"，而当下(2025.11)的铜铝比价(3.8)意味着铝价 更多受到铜价上涨的牵引，铝行业有望享受"铝代铜"带来的需求增量，以及自身电力成本刚性所形成的 利润壁垒这双重红利。 观点四：我国电解铝企业正在经历从周期股向红利资产转变的关键节点 电解铝板块自2021年以来进入去杠杆周期，行业从"增量竞争"转向"存量优化"。企业无法再通过扩张规 模来竞争，资本开支逐年回落。供需格局在产能受限和需求(如新能源汽车、光伏)支撑下趋于紧平衡， 行业利润维持在较高水平，为企业改善资产负债表提供了充足的现金流，随着企业资本开支率 (CAPEX/EBITA)的下行，财务结构更为健康，持续分红具备了有利条件，整体电解铝行业股息率有望 进一步提升。 观点二：我国电解铝供给 ...