Core Viewpoint - The A-share market for coal stocks is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by geopolitical conflicts that may increase international energy prices and coal substitution demand [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Coal stocks such as Lanhua Ketech reached a 10% limit up, while Yanzhou Coal, Jinkong Coal, and China Coal Energy rose over 8% [1] - Other notable performers include Lu'an Environmental Energy up over 7%, Shaanxi Coal and Kailuan Shares up over 6%, and several companies including Meijin Energy and China Shenhua up over 5% [1] Group 2: Company Specifics - Lanhua Ketech has a market capitalization of 10.8 billion with a year-to-date increase of 23.86% [2] - Yanzhou Coal has a market capitalization of 210 billion with a year-to-date increase of 59.09% [2] - Jinkong Coal has a market capitalization of 30.8 billion with a year-to-date increase of 39.77% [2] - China Coal Energy has a market capitalization of 248.7 billion with a year-to-date increase of 50.80% [2] - Lu'an Environmental Energy has a market capitalization of 45.1 billion with a year-to-date increase of 27.63% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector in the A-share market is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by geopolitical conflicts that are expected to raise international energy prices and increase demand for coal as a substitute, particularly in the domestic coal chemical industry due to high oil prices [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Coal stocks are rising, with Lanhua Sci-Tech hitting a 10% limit up, while Yanzhou Coal, Jinkong Coal, and China Coal Energy have increased by over 8% [1]. - Other notable performers include Lu'an Environmental Energy up over 7%, Shaanxi Coal and Open Pit Mining up over 6%, and several companies including Meijin Energy and China Shenhua up over 5% [1]. Group 2: Company Specifics - Lanhua Sci-Tech has a market capitalization of 10.8 billion and a year-to-date increase of 23.86% [2]. - Yanzhou Coal has a market capitalization of 210 billion with a year-to-date increase of 59.09% [2]. - Jinkong Coal has a market capitalization of 30.8 billion and a year-to-date increase of 39.77% [2]. - China Shenhua has a market capitalization of 958.5 billion and a year-to-date increase of 48.24% [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [5] Core Views - The coal price is expected to challenge the 1000 yuan mark as the market digests recent price increases and enters a replenishment cycle [2][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas markets, particularly Indonesia, in influencing global coal prices, with potential supply cuts leading to significant price increases [2][3] - The report highlights the cost advantages of coal chemical products due to rising oil prices, which are expected to boost demand for coal [8] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index rose to 4311.35 points, an increase of 3.50%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.57 percentage points [6][76] - The report notes that geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing US-Iran conflict, have led to soaring prices for oil and LNG, further supporting the case for rising coal prices [2][8] Price Trends - As of March 6, 2026, the price of thermal coal at North Port was reported at 751 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 3 yuan/ton week-on-week [9][34] - The report indicates that while coal prices may experience short-term adjustments, the overall downward space is limited due to low inventory levels in major production areas [19][34] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights that coal production in Indonesia has reached its lowest monthly level since January 2022, with a nearly 30% year-on-year decline [2] - Domestic coal supply is recovering, with major coal mines returning to normal production levels, but demand from downstream industries remains cautious [11][39] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on coal companies with overseas operations, such as China Qinfa (Indonesia), Power Development (South Africa), and Yancoal Australia (Australia) [3][12] - It also suggests monitoring companies with significant coal chemical operations, such as Yanzhou Coal Energy, Guanghui Energy, and China Coal Energy [3][12] Key Stocks - The report lists several stocks with "Buy" ratings, including China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH), and China Coal Energy (601998.SH), highlighting their expected earnings per share and price-to-earnings ratios [15]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran is driving oil prices towards a potential $100 per barrel, with significant implications for various industries and investment opportunities arising from the energy crisis [1][2]. Oil Price Surge and Its Impact - International oil prices have surged dramatically, with U.S. oil and Brent crude both surpassing $90 per barrel, marking the largest weekly increases since 1983 and 1991, respectively [1]. - The conflict has severely affected the shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily vessel traffic plummeting by 94%, leading to a significant loss in global oil supply estimated between 7 million to 11 million barrels per day [1][5]. Beneficiary Sectors in A-Share Market - The oil and gas extraction sector is expected to benefit directly from rising oil prices, with companies like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation showing strong performance [3]. - Other sectors such as coal chemical and energy-related companies are also positioned to gain from the current high oil price environment, with companies like Baofeng Energy and China Coal Energy showing promising growth [4][5]. Energy Sector Valuation Reassessment - The surge in oil prices is reshaping the internal valuation system of the energy sector, with upstream oil and gas extraction companies experiencing the most direct benefits [5]. - Analysts suggest that the geopolitical tensions may sustain high oil prices, benefiting major state-owned enterprises in the oil and gas sector [5]. Coal Chemical Industry Dynamics - The rising oil prices are expected to enhance the competitiveness of coal chemical products, as companies in this sector can leverage stable raw material costs while benefiting from rising product prices [6]. - The coal chemical sector is seen as having clear upward momentum in the current high oil price environment, making it a focal point for investment [6]. Chemical Supply Chain Disruptions - The conflict is causing significant disruptions in the global chemical supply chain, particularly affecting methanol production, with Iran being a major supplier [8][9]. - The rising costs of raw materials, including natural gas and shipping, are expected to push up prices for various chemical products, including bromine and methanol [10][11]. Agricultural Sector Implications - The energy crisis is impacting agricultural production costs, particularly through rising fertilizer prices, which could lead to reduced fertilizer usage and potential declines in crop yields [12][13]. - The geopolitical tensions are also expected to affect the supply of key agricultural inputs like urea and potash, with potential price increases anticipated [14].

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - Historical review indicates that geopolitical conflicts may stabilize seasonal price declines and elevate average prices [3] - The geopolitical tensions involving the US, Israel, and Iran have intensified, exceeding market expectations, leading to high oil and natural gas prices, which are expected to continue influencing energy prices upward [4] - The report emphasizes a strategic bullish outlook for the energy cycle over the next 5-10 years, recommending investments in global markets such as Yancoal Australia and leading A-share companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining, China Shenhua Energy, and others [4] Summary by Sections Market Tracking - As of February 27, 2026, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 749 CNY/ton, up 27 CNY/ton (3.7%) from the previous week [4] - Domestic supply remains stable while imports are expected to decline, with demand showing significant improvement during the off-season [4] - The report notes that the price of thermal coal is expected to rebound during the off-season, with Q3 profits anticipated to recover [4] Coal Price Trends - As of March 6, 2026, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1610 CNY/ton, down 5.3% from the previous week [4] - The report highlights that the Australian Newcastle Port Q5500 offshore price has increased by 2 USD/ton (1.7%) [4] - The report indicates that the cost of domestic coal is lower than that of imported Australian coal by 85 CNY/ton [4] Inventory and Supply Chain - As of March 6, 2026, the inventory at Qinhuangdao Port is 5.67 million tons, an increase of 11.6% from the previous week [4] - The report notes a decrease in railway input and port throughput at Qinhuangdao Port, with a 6.3% reduction in railway input [4] - Domestic shipping rates have increased, with the Qinhuangdao-Guangzhou rate rising by 2.2% [4] Overall Market Performance - The coal sector outperformed the broader market, with a 3.50% increase compared to a 0.93% decline in the Shanghai Composite Index [4] - The report lists top performers in the coal sector, including Baofeng Energy and Zhongmei Energy, with significant weekly gains [4]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - The coal sector has shown strong performance, with a 3.5% increase in the CITIC coal industry index, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.57 percentage points [2] - The widening oil-coal price gap indicates strong potential for coal chemical alternatives to oil, leading to increased operating rates and investment in coal chemical industries [6] - Current coal prices are expected to rise due to the influence of oil prices, despite a slight decline in coal prices during the off-season [6] Supply and Demand Summary - Average daily coal sales from monitored enterprises increased by 12.6% week-on-week and 11.2% year-on-year, reaching 7.27 million tons [2] - The average daily coal production was 7.39 million tons, up 10.5% week-on-week and 9.3% year-on-year [2] - Total coal inventory (including port storage) was 24.54 million tons, a 3.5% increase week-on-week but a 33.2% decrease year-on-year [2] - Cumulative coal sales for the year reached 44.95 million tons, a 6.3% increase year-on-year [24] Price Summary - The price of thermal coal (Q5500K) was 689 CNY/ton, up 0.58% week-on-week [3] - The price of coking coal at Jing Tang Port was 1610 CNY/ton, down 5.3% week-on-week [4] - The price of methanol in East China rose to 2502.5 CNY/ton, an increase of 333.64 CNY/ton week-on-week [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies, coal chemical companies, and flexible coking coal companies [6] - Specific companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others with coal chemical production capacity [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [3] Core Insights - The surge in global oil and gas prices is driving demand for coal, with international coal prices reaching their highest levels in over two years due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2] - The report highlights that the transition to coal for power generation is becoming more pronounced in regions like Japan, South Korea, and the EU, as they seek to secure energy supplies amid rising natural gas prices [5] - The tightening supply from major coal-exporting countries, particularly Indonesia, is expected to further support international coal prices [5] Summary by Sections Oil Prices - Brent crude oil futures settled at $92.69 per barrel, up $20.21 per barrel (+27.88%) from the previous week [1] - WTI crude oil futures settled at $90.90 per barrel, up $23.88 per barrel (+35.63%) from the previous week [1] Natural Gas Prices - The Northeast Asia LNG spot price reached $21.18 per million British thermal units, up $10.51 (+98.42%) from the previous week [1] - The Dutch TTF natural gas futures price was €52.23 per megawatt-hour, up €20.63 (+65.27%) from the previous week [1] Coal Prices - Newcastle port coal (6000K) FOB price was $137 per ton, up $18.5 (+15.61%) from the previous week [1] - The IPE South African Richards Bay coal futures price was $113 per ton, up $14.1 (+14.26%) from the previous week [1] - European ARA port coal (6000K) CIF price was $102.55 per ton, down $4.45 (-4.16%) from the previous week [1] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, China Shenhua Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, which are expected to perform well [5] - It also highlights companies involved in smart mining and those undergoing turnaround situations, such as China Qinfa and Jiangxi Tungsten [5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - The coal sector has shown strong performance, with a 3.5% increase in the CITIC coal industry index, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.57 percentage points [2] - The widening oil-coal price gap indicates strong potential for coal chemical alternatives to oil, leading to increased operating rates and investment in coal chemical industries [6] - Current coal prices are expected to rise due to the influence of oil prices, despite a slight decline in coal prices during the off-season [6] Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - As of March 6, 2026, the average daily coal sales of monitored enterprises reached 7.27 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 12.6% and a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [2] - The average daily coal production was 7.39 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 10.5% and a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [2] - Total coal inventory was 24.54 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 33.2% [2] Price Trends - The price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 689 CNY/ton, up 0.58% week-on-week [3] - The price of coking coal at Jing Tang Port was 1610 CNY/ton, down 5.3% week-on-week [4] - The price of methanol in East China rose to 2502.5 CNY/ton, an increase of 333.64 CNY/ton week-on-week [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies, coal chemical companies, and flexible coking coal companies [6] - Specific companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company among others [6]

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - Historical review indicates that geopolitical conflicts may stabilize seasonal price declines and elevate average prices [3] - The geopolitical tensions involving the US, Israel, and Iran have intensified, exceeding market expectations, leading to high oil and natural gas prices, which are expected to continue rising and influence energy prices [4] - The international coal price has increased by 20% due to the surge in natural gas prices, raising expectations for global coal demand amid high energy prices [4] - Domestic supply remains stable, but the significant rise in overseas coal prices may lead to a reduction in imports, potentially lifting domestic seasonal coal price bottoms [4] - The peak supply-demand pressure is expected to end around March-April, with a subsequent increase in electricity coal demand starting in May [4] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal Data Tracking - As of February 27, 2026, the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Huanghua Port is 749 CNY/ton, up 27 CNY/ton (3.7%) from the previous week [4] - Domestic supply remains stable, with a slight decrease in imports expected throughout the year [4] - Demand during the off-season is showing significant improvement, with Q3 profits expected to rebound [4] Coking Coal Data Tracking - As of February 27, 2026, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1700 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [4] - Daily iron and steel production has slightly decreased, but demand is expected to remain strong [4] Inventory and Price Trends - As of March 6, 2026, Jingtang Port's main coking coal price is 1610 CNY/ton, down 5.3% from the previous week, with total coking coal inventory at three ports at 2.612 million tons, down 1.6% [4] - The price of Australian Newcastle Q5500 coal has increased by 2 USD/ton (1.7%), while domestic coal remains cheaper than imported coal by 85 CNY/ton [4] Long-term Price Agreements - The annual long-term price for Q5500 thermal coal at Northern Ports is 682 CNY/ton, up 2 CNY/ton (0.3%) from the previous month [30] - The comprehensive trading price for Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao is 695 CNY/ton, up 5 CNY/ton (0.7%) from the previous week [30] Market Performance - The coal sector outperformed the market last week, with the coal sector rising by 3.50% while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.93% [69] - Notable gainers include Baofeng Energy (19.64%) and Zhongmei Energy (14.24%) [69]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The current fundamentals of the port thermal coal market remain weak, with downstream industrial power demand showing weak recovery post-holiday, coupled with high temperatures leading to low residential demand. The end of the heating season is expected to keep coal prices in a fluctuating trend [1] - The average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim increased by 189.25 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 14.35 million tons, or 8.20%. The average daily outflow was 171.95 million tons, up by 4.60 million tons, or 2.75% [1][27] - Port coal inventory increased to 25.508 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.54 million tons, or 6.43% [1][31] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The port thermal coal spot price decreased by 8 yuan/ton week-on-week, closing at 743 yuan/ton [1] - The average daily number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim decreased by 21% to 92 vessels [31] Price Trends - The price of thermal coal at the Dazhou South Suburb increased by 23 yuan/ton to 667 yuan/ton, while the price at Yanzhou decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 880 yuan/ton [15] - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index increased by 4 yuan/ton to 689 yuan/ton [18] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending thermal coal elastic stocks such as Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy [2][36]