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食品饮料行业2026年度投资策略:新消费内部轮动传统消费底部改善
Yin He Zheng Quan· 2025-11-24 11:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry, highlighting several key companies as investment opportunities [3][4]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing internal rotation in new consumption and improvement at the bottom of traditional consumption. The overall performance in 2025 was weak, primarily due to the adjustment in the liquor sector, but the long-term recovery trend for mass consumer goods remains intact [3][8]. - For 2026, structural opportunities are expected to continue, with new consumption showing internal rotation and traditional consumption gradually recovering from the bottom [3][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2025, the food and beverage sector's revenue grew by only 0.1% year-on-year, while profits fell by 14.6%, underperforming compared to the previous year. The industry index ranked last among 31 sub-industries with a decline of 4.8% [8][11]. - The adjustment in the liquor sector is identified as the main factor for the overall weak performance, while the recovery trend for mass consumer goods is expected to persist [8][11]. Soft Drinks - The beverage industry is projected to benefit from a rebound in travel demand in 2026, with a revenue increase of 6.2% in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [42][45]. - Cost advantages from declining prices of raw materials like sugar and PET are expected to continue, enhancing profit margins for beverage companies [45][49]. Snacks - The konjac snack sector is experiencing high growth, with companies like Salted Fish and Wei Long achieving significant revenue increases in 2025 [66][67]. - The competitive landscape for konjac products is expected to remain manageable, with established brands likely to maintain their market positions despite new entrants [70][76]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is anticipated to see a recovery in supply-demand balance, with raw milk prices expected to stabilize in 2026 due to ongoing supply adjustments [38][39]. - Policies promoting consumption are expected to benefit liquid milk and milk powder sales, driving demand improvements [38][39]. Frozen and Condiment Products - The frozen food sector is expected to see performance improvements as competition stabilizes, with a focus on recovery in demand [38][39]. - The condiment sector is also projected to benefit from a gradual recovery in consumer demand [38][39]. Liquor - The liquor industry is still in an adjustment phase but is gradually approaching a bottoming out stage, with supply clearing expected to continue into 2026 [6][25]. - The report suggests that the long-term value of liquor stocks will become more apparent as the market stabilizes [6][25]. Investment Recommendations - Key companies to watch include Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring, and Moutai in the beverage sector, as well as Wei Long and Salted Fish in the snack sector [6][8].
即时零售亮眼,电商品类表现分化
行 业 专 题 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 9 股票研究 / [Table_Date] 2025.11.24 2025-11-24 即时零售亮眼,电商品类表现分化 [Table_Industry] 批发零售业 "双十一"电商数据总结 本报告导读: "双十一"电商销售平稳增长,渠道侧即时零售高增,品类方面服装鞋帽、化妆品、金 银珠宝等表现较好。 投资要点: [Table_Summary] 投资观点:①金价坚挺,珠宝龙头公司陆续完成提价,重点关注标 的:老铺黄金、菜百股份、潮宏基、周大福、六福集团;②市场风 格变化,新消费估值低、景气度高,值得关注;重点关注标的:古 茗;受益标的:蜜雪冰城。③关注超市调改,重点关注标的:步步 高、汇嘉时代、重庆百货、永辉超市、家家悦;④ 消费+科技仍是 重要产业趋势,重点关注标的:小商品城、康耐特光学、天立国际 控股;受益标的:凯文教育。 "双十一"总体表现:根据国家统计局,10 月实物商品网上零售额同 比+4.9%,较 9 月增速放缓 2.4pct。根据星图数据,2025 年"双十一" 大促全期全网电商销售总额 16950 亿元,同增 14.2%(2025 年 10 月 7 ...
永辉“胖改”还没上岸,股东套现13亿,叶国富的设想会落空吗
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-24 02:55
永辉超市"胖改"17个月还没上岸,身边的人却已按捺不住。 双十一刚落幕,永辉超市董事长宣布减持套现4.3亿元。 创始人先溜了,被模仿的胖东来掌舵者于东来也曾有不满,甚至在永辉超市全球供应商大会上直言:"认识张氏兄弟十几年,然后通过他们刚刚认识叶国 富,如果早跟他认识,会劝他不要做这一行。" 百亿级亏损在不断啃噬永辉,叶国富想让百亿浮盈落袋为安的蓝图,至今也仍是镜花水月。更棘手的是,他这场豪赌还将名创优品拖入了局中。 于是,"2026年全店改造完成",成了所有人的焦点,这个被寄予厚望的时间节点,正沉甸甸地扛着三方的未来。 文 | 无冕财经 海棠葉 编辑 | 陈涧 股东套现超13亿元 11月11日,永辉超市发布公告称,公司董事长张轩松及其一致行动人拟通过集中竞价交易方式减持公司股份合计不超过9075万股,占公司总股本的1%。 永辉超市发布减持公告。 若按公告当日收盘价4.74元/股计算,这笔减持计划预计可套现约4.3亿元。 减持完成后,罗雯霞持股比例仅0.0036%。 更早之前的7月3日,北京京东世纪贸易有限公司也减持了1.14亿股,减持总金额超过6亿元。 本次减持完成后,京东世贸持股比例为1.68%,不再是永辉 ...
传统商超一年消失3037家,谁是最大受害者?
3 6 Ke· 2025-11-24 02:46
近日,据中国连锁协会最新公布的超市销售规模TOP100中,多达62家在2024年缩减了门店数量,按照 比例计算,缩减门店数量共计3037家。 传统商超被迫撤退 更为关键的是,新兴零售形态不仅改变了大家的购买路径,也在重塑商品流通的底层逻辑。 谁该为此负责? 商超门店锐减3037家,这一数字的源头,是沃尔玛、家乐福、永辉、人人乐、大润发等一众曾家喻户晓 的零售巨头持续收缩战线,部分企业甚至以"每年关闭上百店"的速度进行战略调整。曾经人声鼎沸排起 长队的商超门前,正逐渐被关闭的铁门和"本店已停业"的告示所取代。 《2025年中国购物报告》显示,超市与小超市在整个零售渠道中的份额从34%下降至32%,而曾经占据 主导地位的大卖场品类份额更是由19%锐减至13%。与此同时,电商渠道则实现了跨越式增长,市场份 额从22%攀升至32%,几乎与传统超市持平。 这一变化的背后,是消费场景的根本性更迭。 随着移动互联网的普及与即时配送网络的完善,消费者的购物行为日趋碎片化、高频化与个性化。他们 更加倾向于通过手机下单,享受一小时内送达的服务。新零售平台依托前置仓模式实现"最后一公里"的 高效履约,极大提升了便利性。社区团购也在 ...
立冬火锅消费升温 永辉火锅核心品类销售额超3亿元
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-11-23 02:00
为确保食材品质,永辉建立了全程可控的冷链体系。牛羊肉产品在恒温冷链下运输,并实时监控温湿 度;冰鲜产品可实现"当日屠宰、次日到店"。在门店端,永辉设置了火锅食材陈列区与低温保鲜柜,并 由专人及时理货补货。 消费者可通过"食安云网"系统便捷查询产品溯源信息。全国范围内的调改门店还提供了免费加工、烹饪 指导与食材搭配建议等服务。 北京商报讯(记者 赵述评)立冬过后,寒意渐起,热气腾腾的火锅成为许多家庭的餐桌上的温暖主 角。近日,永辉超市在天津SM滨海城市广场店正式启动"有料火锅局・暖冬好肉盛宴"主题活动,现场 汇聚近五十款全品类火锅食材,工作人员现场讲解食材特点与烹饪技巧,增设免费试吃台,提供现切现 涮的新鲜肉品。 目前,"有料火锅局"活动已在全国永辉门店同步上线,永辉线上超市APP也配合推出"小雪寻味"专题, 全面覆盖线上线下消费场景。该活动累计带动火锅核心品类销售超3亿元,其中,牛羊肉类商品表现尤 为亮眼,10月销售同比增长超50%。 ...
行业周报:六福集团业绩预告高增,美丽田园战略升级-20251122
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-11-22 11:35
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the retail industry [1] Core Insights - The retail industry is experiencing a significant transformation, with a focus on emotional consumption and innovative product offerings driving growth [6][32] - Companies like Liufu Group and Meili Tianyuan are implementing strategic upgrades to enhance brand value and market presence [27][29] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail index reported a decline of 7.24% during the week of November 17-21, 2025, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.34 percentage points [5][14] - The retail index has increased by 0.58% year-to-date, lagging behind the overall market performance [14][18] Company Performance Highlights - Liufu Group anticipates a revenue increase of approximately 20%-30% and a net profit growth of 40%-50% for the six months ending September 30, 2025, driven by effective product differentiation and sales strategies [27] - Meili Tianyuan is focusing on three major strategic initiatives: building a super brand through acquisitions, establishing a super chain for quality growth, and enhancing digital capabilities for precise marketing [29] Investment Themes - **Gold and Jewelry**: Focus on brands with differentiated product offerings and consumer insights, recommending companies like Laopuhuang and Chaohongji [6][35] - **Offline Retail**: Emphasize companies adapting to market changes, recommending Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][32] - **Cosmetics**: Highlight domestic brands that cater to emotional value and safety innovations, recommending companies like Maogeping and Pola [6][33] - **Medical Aesthetics**: Target differentiated product manufacturers and expanding medical chains, recommending Aimeike and Kedi-B [6][34] Key Company Updates - Chaohongji reported a revenue increase of 28.4% year-to-date, with a focus on expanding its franchise model and product innovation [38][40] - Yonghui Supermarket's revenue decreased by 22.2% year-to-date, but the company is undergoing a transformation to improve its supply chain and store optimization [41][43]
于东来反复踩踏民族情感红线,绑定他是永辉此次改革的最大败笔!
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-22 07:25
作者声明:该文章由AI辅助创作 01、我为何敢预判:永辉的改革注定失败? 永辉超市——曾是我国零售行业的一面旗帜,近年来却深陷经营困局,出现巨额亏损。 为了扭转局势,永辉超市邀请"胖东来"创始人于东来及其团队加入,开始了一场企业改革。 今年10月,永辉超市CEO王守诚坦言,永辉目前的发展水平仅相当于10年前的胖东来。 他说,永辉会扎扎实实地往前走: 用2-3年的时间走出"生死线",再用3-5年的时间赢回信任,最后用5-10年,成为让人骄傲、感到幸福的 品牌。 可惜,我不得不泼个冷水——如果继续按现在这种方式搞下去,永辉超市的这次改革注定失败! 肯定会有网友质疑: 何医生,你是个大夫,又不懂超市经营,你凭什么在这里一本正经地胡说八道呢? 人家永辉超市的老板没招你没惹你,也没爆出有精神心理问题,你又没见过他,为什么要说这种话呢? 其实理由很简单: 第一,虽然我不认识永辉的老板,但无论他是谁,他只要是个人,就一定会有人性、三观以及内隐记 忆。 而这些正是我研究的范畴。 尤其我有过6次创业的人生经历,并率先打开了精准高效心理学的大门后,对于很多社会事件和人物, 我能从这3个维度进行深入的剖析,揭开事实背后的真相。 第 ...
溯源、直采、冷链:永辉供应链升级护航“冬日火锅经济”
11月21日,永辉超市(601933)在天津SM滨海城市广场店启动"有料火锅局暖冬好肉盛宴"主题活动, 现场汇聚近五十款全品类火锅食材,工作人员现场讲解食材特点与烹饪技巧,增设免费试吃台,提供现 切现涮的新鲜肉品。 永辉建立了全程可控的冷链体系。牛羊肉产品在恒温冷链下运输,并实时监控温湿度;冰鲜产品更可实 现"当日屠宰、次日到店",最大限度锁留新鲜风味。 目前,"有料火锅局"活动已在全国永辉门店同步上线,永辉线上超市APP也配合推出"小雪寻味"专题, 全面覆盖线上线下(300959)消费场景。依托可溯源的产品品质、丰富的食材矩阵,累计带动火锅核心 品类销售超3亿元。 "我们的核心在于提升商品品质,让消费'好而不贵'。"永辉超市商品中心生鲜负责人柯志一介绍,"通过 源头直采、规模化采购和数字化管理,与供应商协同实现'双向降本'。最终将优化出的成本优势,直接 回馈给消费者。" 牛羊肉类商品成为本季滋补食材的销售主力,10月销售同比增长超50%。 据介绍,"食安云网"系统可以便捷查询产品溯源信息。此外,全国范围内的调改门店还提供了免费加 工、烹饪指导与食材搭配建议等增值服务。 永辉超市方面介绍,在选品与品控上均设立 ...
盒马、京东紧急提醒
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-20 15:23
Core Points - Multiple users reported receiving fake trial cards from Hema Fresh, with some claiming that every household in their community received them [1] - Hema Fresh has not launched any such promotional activities and urges consumers to be cautious of such information [8] - Other supermarkets like Yonghui and RT-Mart also reported similar fake trial cards being circulated under their names [5][9] Group 1 - Users received beautifully designed trial cards that appeared authentic [4] - The cards prompted users to provide personal information and download an app, which raised suspicions [4] - Hema Fresh's representative confirmed that the company is not conducting any trial activities and advised consumers to verify any such claims with customer service [8] Group 2 - Yonghui Supermarket and Pupu Supermarket also stated that they have not initiated any such promotional activities and have issued warnings [9] - JD.com confirmed that the gift card promotion is a scam, leading consumers into fraudulent schemes [10] - Police have issued reminders to avoid engaging with unknown offers and to refrain from scanning suspicious QR codes [11][12]
福州“胖永辉”+1 永辉闽侯第二家“胖改店”来了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-20 13:22
Core Insights - Yonghui Supermarket's Fuzhou Minhou University Town store is set to reopen on November 22 after a comprehensive renovation, aligning with local policies aimed at commercial upgrades and consumer potential release [1][20] - The store's transformation reflects a strategic focus on quality enhancement and consumer experience, particularly in the context of the "Fat Yonghui" model [20] Store Renovation Details - The renovated store covers nearly 3,700 square meters and is the second "Fat Yonghui" store in Minhou, featuring 9,574 SKUs with a product replacement rate of 40.7% [3] - The store's product structure has reached 80% of that of the popular brand "Fat Donglai," with 10.7% of products being imported and nearly 4,500 items from first and second-tier brands [3] Sales Performance and Consumer Engagement - The success of the renovation model is evidenced by the Yonghui Tanshishan store, which saw overall sales increase by nearly 470%, driven by popular ready-to-eat items [5] - The fresh food section underwent significant changes, with a product planning of around 900 items and a replacement rate of 56%, emphasizing the "quality at a reasonable price" strategy [5] Product Offerings and Local Integration - The vegetable section incorporates local culinary culture, introducing unique ingredients for soup, showcasing regional care [7] - The bakery and ready-to-eat food offerings increased from 5% to 25%, enhancing the shopping experience with a variety of freshly prepared items [7] Service Enhancements - The store has introduced various customer services, including free cooking for certain products and a range of convenience facilities [12] - A focus on freshness management is evident, with strict policies on product turnover and traceability [14] Employee Welfare and Training - Post-renovation, the store's staff increased from 122 to 162, with significant salary improvements and enhanced employee facilities [16] - Yonghui has been recognized as a training base for retail industry talent, reflecting its commitment to employee development [18] Future Outlook - The reopening of the Minhou University Town store represents a significant quality transformation, setting a new benchmark for retail market upgrades in the region [20] - Yonghui aims to continue its focus on high-quality retail, superior service, and differentiated product development to better meet consumer needs [20]