证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 商贸零售 商社板块 2025 年四季度前瞻 1. 零售板块四季度前瞻： （1）黄金珠宝：①老凤祥：我们预计 25Q4 归母净利增速-15%至 5%。 ②周大生：我们预计 25Q4 归母净利增速 15%至 30%。③潮宏基：公司 预告 2025 年归母净利润 4.36 亿-5.33 亿元同比增 125%-175%，测算 25Q4 归母净利润 1.2-2.2 亿元；2025 年底潮宏基珠宝门店总数 1668 家， 年内净增 163 家。④菜百股份：公司预告 2025 年归母净利润 10.6 亿-12.3 亿，对应 25Q4 归母净利增速 150%-254%。⑤豫园股份：公司预告 25Q4 归母亏损 43.12 亿元，24 年同期亏损 10.3 亿元，主因公司持续瘦身健体， 对部分存在减值迹象的房地产项目及商誉等计提资产减值准备。 （2）潮玩：名创优品：我们预计 25Q4 收入增速 25%-30%，经调整 OP 同比双位数增长，经调整归母净利增速 10%至 20%。 （3）商超百货：①重庆百货：公司预告 2025 年归母净利 1 ...

1. 零售板块四季度前瞻： （1）黄金珠宝：①老凤祥：我们预计 25Q4 归母净利增速-15%至 5%。 ②周大生：我们预计 25Q4 归母净利增速 15%至 30%。③潮宏基：公司 预告 2025 年归母净利润 4.36 亿-5.33 亿元同比增 125%-175%，测算 25Q4 归母净利润 1.2-2.2 亿元；2025 年底潮宏基珠宝门店总数 1668 家， 年内净增 163 家。④菜百股份：公司预告 2025 年归母净利润 10.6 亿-12.3 亿，对应 25Q4 归母净利增速 150%-254%。⑤豫园股份：公司预告 25Q4 归母亏损 43.12 亿元，24 年同期亏损 10.3 亿元，主因公司持续瘦身健体， 对部分存在减值迹象的房地产项目及商誉等计提资产减值准备。 （2）潮玩：名创优品：我们预计 25Q4 收入增速 25%-30%，经调整 OP 同比双位数增长，经调整归母净利增速 10%至 20%。 （3）商超百货：①重庆百货：公司预告 2025 年归母净利 10.21 亿，同比 下降 22.4%，对应 25Q4 归母净利同比下降 92.5%，主因消费大环境影 响、汽贸业态新能源转型拖累业绩 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of HBN, a leading domestic skincare brand, which has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating strong growth potential in the efficacy skincare market [3][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and suggests focusing on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors [6][49] Summary by Sections Industry Performance Overview - The commercial retail and social services indices reported declines of 4.18% and 3.45% respectively during the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026, ranking 26th and 23rd among 31 primary industries [5][14] - The jewelry sector showed the highest growth, with a weekly increase of 7.07% and a year-to-date increase of 19.39% [15][18] Key Industry Developments - HBN, established in 2019, is recognized as the largest domestic skincare brand in the efficacy skincare segment, with a market share of 0.8% in the Chinese improvement skincare market as of 2024 [24][25] - HBN's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, with high-efficacy skincare products accounting for 78.6% of total revenue [29] Investment Recommendations - Investment Theme 1: Focus on high-end gold and fashion jewelry brands, recommending companies like Laopuhuangjin and Chaohongji [6][49] - Investment Theme 2: Highlighting retail companies that adapt to emotional value and intelligent trends, with recommendations for Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][49] - Investment Theme 3: Emphasizing beauty and personal care brands that innovate with emotional value and safe ingredients, recommending brands like Maogeping and Pola [6][50] - Investment Theme 4: Targeting differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers and leading medical beauty institutions, recommending companies like Aimeike and Meilitiantian [6][51]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the gold jewelry sector, indicating that consumer enthusiasm remains strong despite fluctuations in gold prices, particularly during the Chinese New Year [10][24]. Core Insights - On January 30, gold prices experienced significant volatility, yet consumer interest in Lao Pu gold stores remained high, showcasing the brand's growing influence [10]. - Promotional activities at Lao Pu gold stores and SKP malls are expected to sustain high-end gold brand consumption during the Spring Festival, with various discounts and gifts driving consumer demand [10]. - Lao Pu gold's fixed-price model contrasts with competitors that price by weight, leading to stronger consumer expectations for price increases, thus insulating the brand from gold price fluctuations [10]. - The report highlights that despite a drop in gold prices at the end of January 2026, certain Lao Pu stores in Shanghai and Beijing continued to see long queues, indicating strong brand appeal during price volatility [10]. Industry Data Tracking - According to Guojin Digital Future Lab, the overall GMV for Tmall and JD.com in the fourth week of December increased by 49.2% year-on-year [11]. - The top five categories in terms of growth during this period were books and audio-visual products, automotive and bicycles, watches, toys, and shoes and bags [11]. Market Review - For the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index recorded changes of -0.44%, -1.62%, 0.08%, 2.38%, and -1.38% respectively, while the retail sector saw a gain of 4.18% [17]. - Notable stock performances included *ST Huike, Yiyaton, Yiwan Yichuang, Yuyuan Co., and Kaichun Co., which saw gains attributed to AI application catalysts [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on cross-border e-commerce, particularly companies with strong brand power and product differentiation, which are expected to show resilience in performance [24]. - In the gold jewelry sector, the report anticipates that consumer enthusiasm will remain strong despite high baseline figures in January, with same-store growth expected to continue [24]. - The report highlights the potential for companies like Chao Hong Ji, which is expected to benefit from new product launches and an increase in self-produced products, driving profitability [24]. - The duty-free sector is also noted for its potential growth, particularly with the launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port, which is expected to significantly impact local and national duty-free businesses [24].

【永辉北京龙湖长楹天街店焕新开业，20店调改收官】1月31日，永辉超市北京龙湖长楹天街店新年氛 围浓郁。历经一个多月的闭店调改，这家位于朝阳区核心商圈的门店正式焕新开业。它的亮相，不仅为 周边社区增添了新的年味采购目的地，更标志着永辉在北京及环京区域历时一年多的门店自主调改全面 收官。至此，永辉已完成20家门店的升级，覆盖北京七区，规模化调改效应显现。（北京青年报记者 李佳 摄像 王雯雯 编辑 王雯雯） ...

Core Viewpoint - Yonghui Supermarket has officially reopened its Beijing Longhu Changying Tianjie store after over a month of renovation, with 20 stores upgraded in the Beijing area, achieving both increased foot traffic and sales in the first 19 stores that reopened [1][2]. Group 1: Store Renovation and Performance - The overall product replacement rate at the Yonghui Longhu Changying Tianjie store exceeds 70%, with a 76% replacement rate for fresh products [1]. - The product structure of the renovated store aligns 80% with that of the brand Pang Donglai, incorporating local Beijing characteristics [1]. - Yonghui's private label "Quality Yonghui" has launched nearly 60 products, with plans to introduce 200 products by 2026 [1]. Group 2: Future Plans and Financial Outlook - Yonghui's Vice President and General Manager of Beijing Region, Gan Wangheng, stated that the company will enter a second phase of renovation focused on optimizing details and responding to diverse local market demands [1]. - The company plans to enhance operations centered around "product scene" and will continue to optimize dimensions such as products, services, and experiences [1]. - As of the end of 2025, Yonghui is expected to have a total of 403 stores, with 315 stores having completed renovations, while facing a projected loss of 2.14 billion yuan for 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of losses [2]. - Analysts suggest that as store closures and renovations conclude, Yonghui is entering a phase of refined operations, which may improve single-store efficiency and stabilize revenue, enhancing profitability [2].

商品力深耕 从"大幅汰换"到"精准供给" 红火的春节吊幔、喜庆的灯笼与福字、琳琅满目的年货礼盒……2026年1月31日，置身于永辉超市北京龙湖长楹天街店，浓厚的年节氛围扑面而来。 历经一个多月的闭店调改，这家位于朝阳区核心商圈的门店正式焕新开业。它的亮相，不仅为周边社区增添了新的年味采购目的地，更标志着永辉在北京 及环京区域历时一年多的门店自主调改全面收官。 至此，永辉已完成21家门店的升级，覆盖北京七区及燕郊等地，规模化调改效应显现：前20家门店在调改开业后实现客流与销售额的双增长。 永辉超市副总裁、北京大区总经理甘旺亨表示，随着北京区域调改的阶段性完成，全面进入深化细节场景优化的第二阶段调改，更精准地响应本地市场的 多元化需求。 01 商品是调改的核心。龙湖长楹天街店对原有商品进行了大幅汰换，整体汰换率超70%，其中生鲜品汰换率高达76%。调改后，门店商品结构深度优化，商 品结构达到胖东来商品结构的80%，同时融入了显著的北京本地化特色。 生鲜品类坚持"鲜度管理"与"品质承诺"双轨并行。在运营端，门店严格执行"468"鲜度管理与"日清"制度，从源头杜绝隔夜商品。在商品端，通过供应链 改革，筑牢"优质平价" ...

北京商报讯（记者 赵述评 实习记者 毛思怡）1月31日，永辉超市北京龙湖长楹天街店经一个多月闭店调改后重新开业，该店也是永辉在北京的最后一家调 改门店。至此，永辉在北京及环京区域的21家门店全部完成自主调改。接下来，永辉将进入下一阶段的精细化运营，对现有门店启动"二改"计划，主要围绕 人员培训、商品优化、服务提质等方面。 "当前阶段的调改更像是'打好基础'，后续将重点围绕员工技能培训、商品体系研发等方面，开展更为精细化的运营改造。"永辉超市北京大区副总经理、调 改总负责人杨子亮在接受北京商报记者采访时，给出了2026年永辉学习胖东来模式后的调改效果与下一步规划。 此前，在北京市商业联合会和北京商报社联合主办的2025年度（第十九届）北京商业论坛上，杨子亮表示，永辉超市于2024至2025年间系统性推进"向东来 学习"调改，这一动作本身成为一项"爆品级"体验。调改并非局限于单品，而是围绕商品结构、卖场环境与人文服务展开全方位重塑，实现了从商品到服 务、再到顾客认知的整体升级。 作为永辉北京最后一家调改门店，龙湖长楹天街店将商品作为调改核心，对原有商品进行大幅汰换，整体汰换率超70%，其中生鲜品汰换率高达76%。 ...

调改后的商品结构，达到胖东来商品结构的80%以上。 经过51天的闭店整改，北京长楹天街购物中心永辉超市（601933）于1月31日开业。北京商报小编咨询 客服了解到，这也是北京第20家"学习胖东来"模式的调改店。 调改后，上述门店对商品结构进行优化，引入了更多的熟食和烘焙商品，并提升了卖场现制现售的能 力。 食用百货类商品重新规划后，单品数达到7685支，新引入单品占比54.4%，引入56支胖东来自有品牌商 品。调改后的商品结构，达到胖东来商品结构的80%以上。 除此之外，还打造了顾客休息区，完善洗手台、免费茶饮等30项便民服务；湿手器、保温袋等20项细节 服务。 北京商报小编发现，上周末，永辉超市长楹天街店举办了美食品鉴会，提前邀请老顾客试吃并打分提出 整改意见。美食品鉴会是在上周六、日的15:00-16:00举行，但不少顾客提前2小时就来排队。 感受一下美食品鉴会的长队↓↓ 小编14:00到达，尝试从队尾走到队首，用了1分32秒。 住在附近的网友在社交媒体上表达了对长楹天街永辉超市开业的期待，也有不少参与美食品鉴会的网友 分享了自己的体验。 截至2025年年末，永辉门店总数精简至403家，其中315家已完 ...

随着第一阶段规模化调改收官，永辉超市正式进入第二阶段深化运营调改期。公司CEO王守诚表示，新 阶段将围绕"商品场景化"核心，从文化提级、组织提效、商品提质、场景提销四个维度持续深耕，通过 打造区域示范门店、优化运营标准，全面提升消费体验与经营质量。 商品方面，食品用品通过持续汰换，力推"品质永辉"自有品牌及"永辉定制"系列，其中"品质永辉"2025 年上新近60支单品，2026年规划开发200支。3R（即食即烹即热）商品及烘焙业务增长迅猛，全国烘焙 日店均销售额同比增幅超500%，元旦期间3R销售增速超200%。 1月30日，永辉超市（601933）官方微信公众号发文称，1月30日至31日，永辉在广州、兰州、合肥、镇 江、北京五城同步迎来门店焕新开业，为历时一年的规模化调改画上句号。截至目前，永辉已完成调改 的门店总数突破300家，标志着以"商品力+场景力"为核心的自主运营模式实现全面落地，并正式迈入 以"深化细节、场景提效"为重点的第二阶段调改周期。 ...