Summary of the Conference Call on Yonghui Supermarket Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Yonghui Supermarket - **Industry**: Retail Supermarket Sector Key Points and Arguments 1. **Understanding Brand and Channel Dynamics**: The report emphasizes the evolving relationship between brands and channels, suggesting a shift towards a focus on channel capabilities as economic conditions become more rational and consumers prioritize cost-effectiveness [1][2][3] 2. **Historical Context**: Yonghui Supermarket has previously excelled in the market from 2012 to 2019 due to its differentiated fresh produce capabilities and effective management across multiple provinces, leading to significant market share growth [3][4] 3. **Current Market Challenges**: The retail sector has faced challenges over the past five years, including the impact of the pandemic and increased e-commerce penetration, resulting in revenue declines and store closures across the industry [6][7][8] 4. **Future Growth Potential**: Despite current challenges, the report expresses optimism about Yonghui's growth potential over the next 3-5 years, particularly as the company has undergone significant strategic adjustments, including store closures and operational modifications [6][7][19] 5. **Management and Structural Changes**: The company has restructured its management team, bringing in younger leaders and external talent to support its transition towards a quality retail model [16][19] 6. **Focus on Quality Retail**: Yonghui is shifting its strategy towards quality retail, emphasizing product differentiation and enhancing its private label offerings to meet evolving consumer demands [17][18][19] 7. **Financial Performance**: The report notes that while Yonghui's revenue growth has stabilized, profit volatility has been significant due to high operational costs and aggressive expansion strategies in previous years [10][12] 8. **Consumer Demand Trends**: The analysis indicates that consumer demand for quality products remains strong, and the company is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend as it refines its product offerings [19][20] Additional Important Insights 1. **Regional Strengths**: Yonghui has established a strong presence in regions like Chongqing and Fujian, which have contributed significantly to its revenue [9][10] 2. **Adaptation to Market Trends**: The company has shown a proactive approach in adapting to retail trends, although some initiatives have not yielded expected results [10][11] 3. **Logistics and Supply Chain**: Yonghui has developed a robust logistics network that supports its operational needs, which is crucial for its future growth and efficiency [13][14] 4. **Consumer Behavior Shifts**: The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior towards more discerning purchasing decisions, which aligns with Yonghui's strategic focus on quality and differentiation [18][19] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding Yonghui Supermarket's current position, strategic direction, and the broader retail landscape.

飞速扩张的永辉碰上电商时代崛起 还有胖东来，一直是行业标杆，净利率能稳住5%左右，可反观曾经的零售大哥永辉，现在却栽大了， 亏得一塌糊涂，2026年初北京鸿坤广场的永辉店直接停业了，为何学习胖东来的营销模式，永辉还是亏 损关店？ 现在超市行业卷得不行，全国大多数超市都在搞调改，就盼着能多赚点钱。咱就说步步高，改完的门店 销售额平均涨了292.49%。 大家好，今天犀哥这篇财经评论，主要来聊聊永辉超市。 永辉落到今天这步，说白了就是扩张太急，再加上转型没跟上，早年间它可是农改超的先行者，当年扩 张速度快得离谱，用7年时间就开了700多家店，最火的时候全国有1057家门店，连西藏、青海那种偏远 地方都有它的身影。 可它光顾着铺摊子，忘了补短板，供应链和精细化管理都没跟上，后来电商起来了，大家都习惯线上买 百货、买生鲜。 永辉的客流被分流得厉害，从2021年开始就一直亏，一算下来五年亏了超百亿，2025年更惨，预计亏 21.4亿元，比上一年还多亏45.6%，这窟窿越捅越大。 现在永辉不光亏得多，钱也特别紧张，相当于又没钱又亏空，双重压力压得喘不过气。 截至2025年9月末，它账上的钱只剩33.58亿元，创下十年最低 ...

Core Insights - The retail industry is facing significant challenges as companies attempt to learn from successful models like Fat Donglai, but many are failing to replicate its success [2][15][20] Group 1: Performance of Retail Companies - Yonghui Supermarket, once a leader in the retail sector, has reported continuous losses, with a projected net loss of 2.14 billion yuan for 2025, marking its fifth consecutive year of losses [2][8] - The company has closed 381 stores in 2025, averaging over one store closure per day, leading to direct losses of 1.174 billion yuan due to store renovations and closures [9][10] - Other retailers, such as Meitoh and Bubu Gao, have also struggled after attempting to adopt the Fat Donglai model, with significant declines in net profits [12][14] Group 2: Learning from Fat Donglai - Many retailers, including Yonghui, have attempted to learn from Fat Donglai's operational model, but most have failed to achieve satisfactory results, often resulting in increased losses [15][20] - The core issue lies in the inability of these companies to fundamentally restructure their business models and supply chains, leading to superficial imitation rather than genuine transformation [15][20] - Fat Donglai's success is attributed to its unique supply chain, employee welfare, and customer trust, which are difficult for larger, publicly traded companies to replicate due to their existing profit structures and shareholder pressures [16][19] Group 3: Financial Metrics - Yonghui's total revenue for 2024 was 67.57 billion yuan, down from 78.64 billion yuan in 2023, with a gross profit of 13.82 billion yuan [6] - In the first three quarters of 2025, Yonghui reported a net loss of 709.8 million yuan, significantly higher than the previous year's loss of 77.87 million yuan [9] - Bubu Gao's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 3.201 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 26.45%, but its net profit dropped to 225.5 million yuan, down nearly 90% from the previous year [12][13]

Core Insights - The article highlights the growing trend of nighttime discount shopping in Chinese supermarkets, where consumers are increasingly attracted to significant price reductions on various food items after 8 PM [2][3][12] - This phenomenon reflects a shift in consumer behavior towards seeking value and efficiency in shopping, particularly among urban professionals who prioritize convenience and cost-effectiveness [4][11] Group 1: Consumer Behavior - Many consumers are now actively participating in nighttime discount shopping, often sharing their experiences on social media, indicating a cultural shift towards valuing discounted goods [1][6] - The primary demographic engaging in this trend consists of urban white-collar workers who are time-constrained and prefer ready-to-eat meals at reduced prices [4][11] - Consumers perceive that the quality of discounted items is comparable to full-priced products, leading to a mindset that values both savings and sustainability by reducing food waste [7][11] Group 2: Supermarket Strategies - Supermarkets like Wumart, Hema, and others have adopted structured discount strategies, offering significant markdowns on perishable goods to manage inventory and minimize waste [3][8] - The implementation of dynamic pricing strategies based on real-time sales data and consumer behavior is becoming common, allowing supermarkets to optimize their discount offerings [11][12] - Nighttime discounts are not only effective for clearing inventory but also serve to enhance overall sales by attracting customers who may purchase full-priced items alongside discounted goods [8][12] Group 3: Market Trends - The rise of nighttime discounts signifies a broader transformation in the retail industry from a focus on price wars to more sophisticated inventory and supply chain management [11][14] - The trend is indicative of a more rational and mature consumer culture in China, where shoppers are becoming more discerning and strategic in their purchasing decisions [13][14] - Supermarkets are increasingly leveraging data analytics to predict demand and tailor their offerings, reflecting a shift towards precision in retail operations [11][12]

2026 年 02 月 03 日 双融日报 市场情绪：28 分（较冷） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较冷） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 28 分，市场情绪处于"较冷"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：电网设备、银行、消费 1、电网设备主题：全球 AI 数据中心（AIDC）耗电量巨大， 催生了对高功率、高稳定性变压器等核心电力设备的刚性需 求。目前全球供需严重失衡，美国市场交货周期已长达 127 周。与此同时，国内"十五五"期间，国家电网 4 万亿元的 巨额投资将重点投向特高压、智能化配电网等新型电力系 统，为行业带来了明确的长期订单支撑。相关标的：中国西 电（601179）、特变电工（600089） --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 2、银行主题：银行股具有高股息特性，如中证银行指数的股 息率高达 6.02%，显著高于 10 年期国债收益率。在经济增 速放缓 ...

2026年开年，零售市场以蓬勃活力拉开序幕，消费升级的浪潮在核心城市不断激荡出新火花。1月 30日，永辉超市在广州城市中轴线上再落关键一子——位于天河核心商圈的永辉超市广州正佳广场店正 式试营业。至此，"胖永辉"在穗已成功布局八店，标志着永辉超市在华南市场的深耕进入提速扩容新阶 段，以更密集的网络、更年轻的姿态，深度融入并引领羊城消费者的品质生活。 永辉超市两广大区负责人表示："正佳广场店是广州市区的第五家'胖永辉'，我们希望通过年轻化 的商品、沉浸式的体验，让其不仅成为新世代家庭置办年货的首选地，更成为他们日常品质生活中值得 信赖的'好街坊'。" 全新亮相的正佳广场店，围绕"年轻、好玩、好逛"进行全方位革新，精准触达追求品质与潮流的中 国主流家庭及年轻客群，旨在打造一站式采购潮流年货、探索全球风味的品质生活新场景，为2026年广 州春节消费版图注入强劲的"永辉动力"。 商品结构年轻化，为中国家庭严选好品质 正佳广场店坐落于广州天河商圈核心地带，作为国家AAAA级旅游景区与文商旅综合体，2024年全 年客流超5000万人次，今年元旦假期首日，单日客流更超28万人次，商业活力可见一斑。同时，凭借着 丰富多元的业 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of HBN, a leading domestic skincare brand, which has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating strong growth potential in the efficacy skincare market [3][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and recommends high-quality companies in high-growth sectors, including gold and jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [6][49] Summary by Sections Retail and Social Services Market Review - For the week of January 26 to January 30, the retail and social services indices closed at 2435.34 points and 9283.84 points, respectively, with declines of 4.18% and 3.45% [5][14] - The jewelry sector showed the highest growth, with a weekly increase of 7.07% and a year-to-date increase of 19.39% [15][18] Industry Dynamics: HBN and Efficacy Skincare - HBN, established in 2019, is the largest domestic skincare brand in the efficacy segment, focusing on visible results and innovative product strategies [24][25] - The brand's core products, including the "A Retinol" series, have achieved significant sales milestones, with a strong emphasis on scientific validation and consumer trust [29][33] Investment Recommendations - Investment focus areas include: - Gold and jewelry brands with differentiated product offerings, recommending companies like Laopuhuang and Chaohongji [6][49] - Offline retail companies adapting to market changes, with recommendations for Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][49] - Domestic cosmetics brands that emphasize emotional value and safety, recommending brands like Maogeping and Proya [6][50] - Medical aesthetics firms with unique product lines, recommending Meilitiantian Medical Health and Aimeike [6][51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The retail sector is expected to show varied performance in Q4 2025, with significant growth in certain segments like gold and jewelry, while others like supermarkets and department stores are projected to decline [1][2][4] - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming Spring Festival season, suggesting that sectors with performance elasticity, such as duty-free shops and certain tourist attractions, should be closely monitored [9] - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications in enhancing e-commerce marketing, indicating a shift towards new retail strategies [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook - Gold and Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% in Q4 2025 - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% in Q4 2025 - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 1.2 to 2.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit growth of 150% to 254% in Q4 2025 - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion in Q4 2025, compared to a loss of 1.03 billion in the same period last year [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30% in Q4 2025, with adjusted net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarkets and Department Stores - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a decline of 22.4% year-on-year, with a projected drop of 92.5% in Q4 2025 - Wangfujing: Expected net profit loss of 0.45 to 0.23 billion, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% in Q4 2025 - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a net profit growth rate of -3.1% in Q4 2025 - Home Home Joy: Expected net profit of 198 to 228 million, with a growth rate of 50.1% to 72.8% in Q4 2025 [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% in Q4 2025 - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% in Q4 2025 - Su Mei Da: Expected net profit of 1.355 billion, with a growth rate of 70.8% in Q4 2025 [3] Social Services Sector Outlook - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% in Q4 2025 - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% in Q4 2025 - Jiuhua Tourism: Expected net profit growth of 0% to 15% in Q4 2025 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, including duty-free, certain tourist attractions, and gold and jewelry [9] - For 2026, the report suggests looking at service consumption and product consumption, particularly in duty-free and travel chains, as well as undervalued segments with improving fundamentals [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the upcoming Spring Festival peak season, including duty-free, certain scenic spots, supermarkets, and gold jewelry [9] - It suggests that the recent fundamentals of duty-free and travel chains have improved, warranting ongoing observation and validation [9] - For 2026, the report recommends focusing on service consumption and product consumption, particularly in the duty-free and travel chain sectors, as well as the gold jewelry sector and Miniso, which have high valuation attractiveness [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Gold Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 436 million to 533 million, a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion, corresponding to a growth of 150% to 254% - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion, primarily due to asset impairment provisions [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30%, with adjusted operating profit and net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarket and Department Store Outlook for Q4 2025 - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4% - Wangfujing: Expected net profit of -45 million to -23 million, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a growth rate of -3.1% - Jiajiayue: Expected net profit of 198 million to 228 million, growth of 50.1% to 72.8% - Hongqi Chain: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 0% [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce Outlook for Q4 2025 - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% - Saiwei Times: Expected net profit of 90 million to 130 million - Huakai Yibai: Expected net profit of 80 million to 110 million, driven by improved operational efficiency [3] Social Services Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% - Tianmu Lake: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Small Commodity City, China Duty-Free, Huazhu Group, Shoulu Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, Chao Hong Ji, Jiuhua Tourism, Ruoyu Chen, Qingmu Technology, and Miniso, while also keeping an eye on other companies with potential [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of HBN, a leading domestic skincare brand, which has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating strong growth potential in the efficacy skincare market [3][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and suggests focusing on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors [6][49] Summary by Sections Industry Performance Overview - The commercial retail and social services indices reported declines of 4.18% and 3.45% respectively during the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026, ranking 26th and 23rd among 31 primary industries [5][14] - The jewelry sector showed the highest growth, with a weekly increase of 7.07% and a year-to-date increase of 19.39% [15][18] Key Industry Developments - HBN, established in 2019, is recognized as the largest domestic skincare brand in the efficacy skincare segment, with a market share of 0.8% in the Chinese improvement skincare market as of 2024 [24][25] - HBN's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, with high-efficacy skincare products accounting for 78.6% of total revenue [29] Investment Recommendations - Investment Theme 1: Focus on high-end gold and fashion jewelry brands, recommending companies like Laopuhuangjin and Chaohongji [6][49] - Investment Theme 2: Highlighting retail companies that adapt to emotional value and intelligent trends, with recommendations for Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][49] - Investment Theme 3: Emphasizing beauty and personal care brands that innovate with emotional value and safe ingredients, recommending brands like Maogeping and Pola [6][50] - Investment Theme 4: Targeting differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers and leading medical beauty institutions, recommending companies like Aimeike and Meilitiantian [6][51]