期货策略周报 I 2025 年 12 月 22 日 聚酯开枪、全面反内卷还远吗 本周主要观点： 近期市场分化程度有所减弱，主要是受到国家整治内卷式竞 争的政策预期影响，PTA 已经开始反内卷，龙头企业主动减产， 价格明显反弹。在此背景下，其他化工品可能会仿效或跟进。这 也是响应国家政策的号召。另外，农产品整体仍然震荡格局不 变，全球大豆供应过剩的局面暂难缓解，豆粕依然以震荡看待。 从市场整体来看，低估值的化工和黑色板块，可能面临反内卷行 情，不宜过分看空做空，农产品板块仍然维持震荡判断，新能源 基本面改善，强势趋势延续。 风险点：宏观政策变化、产业政策变化、移仓换月； 重要声明：本报告内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 顾双飞 投资咨询证号：Z0013611 王建锋 投资咨询证号：Z0010946 胡乐克 投资咨询证号：Z0013991 陈敏涛 期货从业证号：Z0022731 周行情观点综述 本周商品市场总体呈现出支撑反弹的迹象。但是，结构还不够稳，焦煤和玻 璃、塑料等品种，依然有二次寻底的可能。（1）铜和铝、白银等品种，依然强势 不减，作为中长期基本面的品种，供需矛盾的转换周期略长，短期品种仍然会受制 ...

12月22日，南华期货股份有限公司（股票代码：603093.SH、02691.HK，以下简称"南华期货"）正式在香港联合交易所主板鸣锣挂牌，成功登陆香港资本市 场，实现"A+H"双上市。此次上市标志着南华期货完成境内外资本市场多重布局，为其国际化战略推进与业务创新发展注入动力，也为港股市场增添了优质 期货行业标的。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 费天元）12月22日，南华期货股份有限公司（股票代码：603093.SH、02691.HK，以下简称"南华期货"）正式在香港联合交易所 主板鸣锣挂牌，成功登陆香港资本市场，实现"A+H"双上市。此次上市标志着南华期货完成境内外资本市场多重布局，为其国际化战略推进与业务创新发展 注入动力，也为港股市场增添了优质期货行业标的。 在业务布局方面，南华期货已构建起覆盖境内期货经纪、风险管理服务、财富管理及境外金融服务的多元化业务体系，形成多板块协同发展的良好格局。境 内期货经纪业务作为公司基础业务，客户权益规模持续增长，从2022年末到2024年末增长65.4%至316亿元，为公司提供了稳定的业务支撑。同时，公司客 户结构不断优化，机构化、产业化特征显著，2025年上半年企业客户 ...

Group 1: New Stock Listings Performance - Four new stocks, including Impression Da Hong Pao, Huazhang Biotech, Mingji Hospital, and Nanhua Futures, debuted but all experienced a decline on their first trading day [1] Group 2: Huazhang Biotech - Huazhang Biotech opened at HKD 33.8, which is 11.5% lower than the IPO price of HKD 38.2, resulting in a loss of HKD 880 per lot of 200 shares [2] - The company focuses on wound healing therapies and is an unprofitable biotech firm specializing in developing protein drugs, particularly platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF) drugs [2] - The company did not attract cornerstone investors, with Huatai International and CITIC Securities serving as joint sponsors [3] Group 3: Mingji Hospital - Mingji Hospital opened at HKD 6.5, down 30.4% from the IPO price of HKD 9.34, leading to a loss of HKD 1,420 per lot of 500 shares [4] - The company operates as a large private profit-oriented hospital group in East China, primarily managing two tertiary hospitals in Nanjing and Suzhou, with a focus on orthopedics, cardiovascular, oncology, and reproductive medicine [4] - Cornerstone investors include He Rong Technology, He Fu (China), and Suzhou Zhanxing, collectively subscribing to 49.63% of the total offering [5] Group 4: Impression Da Hong Pao - Impression Da Hong Pao opened at HKD 3.26, which is 9.4% lower than the IPO price of HKD 3.6, resulting in a loss of HKD 340 per lot of 1,000 shares [6] - The company operates based on Wuyi Mountain tea culture, providing tourism performances and related services, with its core revenue source being the live performance "Impression Da Hong Pao," accounting for over 85% of its income [6] - The company was oversubscribed by over 3,400 times, with joint sponsors being Xingsheng International and Kaisen [6] Group 5: Nanhua Futures - Nanhua Futures opened at HKD 9.13, down 23.9% from the IPO price of HKD 12, leading to a loss of HKD 1,435 per lot of 500 shares [7] - The company is a futures brokerage listed on the A-share main board, primarily engaged in futures brokerage, investment consulting, asset management, and securities investment fund distribution, focusing on derivative business [7] - CITIC Securities is the sole sponsor for the company [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-bank financial sector [6]. Core Insights - The insurance industry is expected to benefit from the trend of bank deposits moving to insurance products, with a positive outlook for the liability side performance in 2026 due to successful short-term sales initiatives. The introduction of a tiered product pricing structure is anticipated to significantly alleviate the risk of interest spread losses. The "reporting and operation integration" is expected to promote industry consolidation and enhance the concentration of leading companies [4][31]. - The securities sector is experiencing a rise in market risk appetite and sustained high trading activity, benefiting from both valuation and performance attributes [4][31]. - Key companies to watch include China Ping An, China Life, China Pacific Insurance, Guotai Junan, and Huatai Securities [4][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Dynamics - The insurance sector is undergoing a systematic upgrade in asset-liability management, with new regulations requiring comprehensive coverage, reasonable matching, and robust supervision. The new rules include three mandatory indicators for property insurance companies, all of which must not fall below 100% [1][2]. - The report highlights the performance of listed insurance companies, with New China Life reporting a cumulative premium income of 188.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16% [14]. 2. Securities - The public fund performance benchmark reform has been initiated, focusing on the transformation of existing products and ensuring a smooth transition without drastic changes to holdings. The reform aims to enhance the attractiveness of the capital market [18]. - The average daily trading volume of stock funds was 22,219 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.20% week-on-week [22]. 3. Multi-Financial - Nanhua Futures has set the final price for its H-share issuance at 12 HKD per share, with plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [30].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The urea market is within the range of fundamentals and policies. In the short term, its downside space is strongly supported, but there is also pressure on the upside. It is expected to show a volatile trend [3]. - The short - term domestic urea market is weak and stalemated. The weekend domestic urea market continued to be firm and rising, but the mid - to - long - term trend is under pressure, and the 1 - 5 month spread is in a reverse arbitrage pattern [10][18][19]. - The overall urea market is expected to be volatile, with a possible narrow rebound followed by a stalemate, and the bottom range may continue to rise [16]. Group 3: Chapter Summaries Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The change in phosphate fertilizer policy suppresses the speculative nature of the fertilizer sector, weakening the spot trading of urea. The high daily production of urea under policy support and profit repair exerts significant pressure on prices, but the export policy adjustment weakens the downward price drive. The short - term domestic urea market is weak, but the continuous destocking of explicit inventory supports prices [3]. - Regarding futures trading, although new delivery warehouses are added, the cheapest deliverable goods are still from Henan and Shandong. Considering the disappearance of the export expectation for the 01 contract, a reverse arbitrage strategy is adopted for the 1 - 5 month spread. The 01 contract still has a premium due to the autumn fertilizer expectation [5]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Urea is expected to fluctuate weakly. - **Price Range**: UR2601 is expected to trade between 1550 - 1750 yuan/ton. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Short positions are recommended when the price is above 1750 yuan/ton, and a reverse arbitrage is recommended for the 1 - 5 month spread when it is above - 10 [12]. - **Basis, Month - spread and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Suggestions**: The 11, 12, and 01 contracts have a weak unilateral trend, while the 02, 03, 04, and 05 contracts are strong with peak - season demand expectations. The 01 contract has an upper pressure range of 1710 - 1720 yuan/ton and a lower static support range of 1550 - 1620 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short at high prices and conduct a reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 month spread. No hedging arbitrage strategy is provided [13][14]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The fourth quarter is the winter storage period for the fertilizer industry, and the relatively low price may attract spontaneous reserves. India's NFL issued a new urea import tender, intending to purchase 1.5 million tons [15]. - **Negative Information**: The current domestic daily urea production is 208,100 tons. After the maintenance of some plants in Shandong and Jiangsu, and the expected concentrated maintenance of some gas - based urea plants in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan, the domestic daily urea production is expected to decline significantly to around 200,000 tons [15]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Events - China's urea production is expected to reach around 1.34 million tons next week, an increase from this week. There are no plans for plant shutdowns, and 5 - 6 plants may resume production, increasing the probability of production growth [17]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - The domestic urea market continued to rise over the weekend, with a price increase of 10 - 40 yuan/ton. The fourth batch of urea export quotas and the new Indian tender boosted market sentiment, but mid - to - downstream resistance emerged. The short - term market is still strong [18]. - The weak domestic demand is the main contradiction. It is expected that the increase in exports cannot make up for the weakening domestic demand, so the medium - term trend is under pressure, and the 1 - 5 month spread of urea is in a reverse arbitrage pattern [19]. 3.2 Industry Hedging Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of urea is predicted to be 1650 - 1950 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 27.16% and a historical percentile of 62.1% over three years. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, shorting urea futures, buying put options, and selling call options are recommended to lock in profits and reduce costs. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, buying urea futures, selling put options are recommended to lock in procurement costs and reduce expenses [24]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - The report presents the seasonal trends of the weekly fixed - bed production cost, natural - gas production cost, water - coal slurry gasification profit, and fixed - bed production profit of urea [27][30][33]. 4.2 Upstream Production Rate Tracking - The report shows the seasonal trends of the daily urea production, weekly production capacity utilization rate, coal - based production capacity utilization rate, and natural - gas - based production capacity utilization rate [36][37]. 4.3 Upstream Inventory Tracking - The report provides the seasonal trends of China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, port inventory, Guangdong and Guangxi inventory, and the combined port and inland inventory [39][41][43]. 4.4 Downstream Price and Profit Tracking - The report presents the seasonal trends of the weekly production capacity utilization rate and inventory of compound fertilizers, the production profit, production capacity utilization rate, market price, and weekly output of melamine, as well as the market prices of compound fertilizers in different regions and the daily market price of synthetic ammonia in Henan [45][48][52][58][65]. 4.5 Spot Production and Sales Tracking - The report shows the seasonal trends of the average production and sales of urea and the production and sales of urea in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei, and East China [67][69].

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures has officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, achieving a dual listing in both A and H shares, marking a significant milestone in its internationalization strategy [1][3]. Group 1: Listing and Financial Details - The global offering of H shares consisted of 108 million shares, with 16.15 million shares allocated for public offering in Hong Kong and 91.51 million shares for international offering. The estimated net proceeds from the global offering are approximately HKD 1.203 billion after deducting related underwriting commissions and other estimated expenses [1]. Group 2: Internationalization Strategy - The listing is a result of Nanhua Futures' long-term commitment to internationalization, with subsidiaries established in key global markets such as Hong Kong, the United States, Singapore, and the United Kingdom, creating a diversified overseas business matrix covering futures, securities, and asset management [2]. - As of June 30, 2025, the overseas financial services segment has become a core growth engine, contributing 48.3% of total operating revenue in 2024 and increasing to 55.1% in the first half of 2025. The company has accumulated approximately 2,077 registered enterprise clients in its overseas business [2]. Group 3: Industry Impact and Competitive Advantage - The dual listing addresses the long-standing issue of homogeneous competition in the domestic futures industry, positioning Nanhua Futures for differentiated development and serving as a replicable model for leading futures companies expanding internationally [3]. - This strategic move is expected to accelerate the concentration of industry resources towards high-quality entities, enhancing industry concentration and driving the sector into a new phase characterized by "service deepening + capital empowerment" [3]. Group 4: Compliance and Risk Management - Nanhua Futures prioritizes compliance and risk management as its core operational foundation, holding the highest AA rating in domestic regulatory assessments, reflecting strong recognition from regulatory bodies for its stable operations and governance [4]. - The company has a comprehensive licensing system, including being one of the first full clearing members of the China Financial Futures Exchange, which supports its ability to navigate complex market environments [4]. Group 5: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of CNY 5.712 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 458 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.96%, demonstrating resilience amid an overall decline in industry net profits [5]. - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a net profit of CNY 231 million, showcasing strong operational resilience despite market volatility, and maintained a net profit of CNY 351 million for the first nine months of 2025, remaining stable compared to the previous year [5].

客户端 美股上周五继续向上，科技股表现向好，带动大市高开后持续向上，三大指数均录得升幅收市。美元走 势向好，美国十年期债息回升至4.14厘水平，金价表现向上，油价亦跟随造好。 今日港股三大指数集体高开，恒指开盘涨0.41%，报25795.94点，恒科指涨0.61%，国企指数涨0.49%。 盘面上，科网股涨多跌少，美团、哔哩哔哩涨超1%，网易跌近1%；黄金股普涨，灵宝黄金涨超2%；芯 片股活跃，中芯国际涨超1%；今日四只新股上市，印象大红袍、华芢生物、明基医院、南华期货挂 牌。 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 ▽ | | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生科技指数 | 5512.54 | +0.61% | | 800700 | | | | 国企指数 | 8944.74 | +0.49% | | 800100 | | | | 恒生指数 | 25795.94 | +0.41% | | 800000 | | | 责任编辑：郝欣煜 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 美股上周五继续向上，科技股表现向好，带动大市高开后持续 ...

今日华芢生物-B(2396.HK)、明基医院(2581.HK)、南华期货股份(2691.HK)、印象大红袍(2695.HK)上 市，卧安机器人(6600.HK)、英矽智能(3696.HK)、英矽智能(2671.HK)、五一视界(6651.HK)、迅策 (3317.HK)及林清轩(2657.HK)申购。（格隆汇） ...

Group 1 - *ST Dongyi's restructuring plan has been approved by the court, marking the end of its restructuring process and entering the execution phase, which is expected to improve the company's financial structure and promote sustainable development [1] - Guankang Technology is planning to acquire at least 60% of Liaojing Electronics' shares, leading to a suspension of trading starting December 22, 2025, due to uncertainties surrounding the transaction [2] - Zhuoran Co. and its actual controller are under investigation for suspected violations of information disclosure laws, but the company's operations remain normal during this period [3] Group 2 - China Shenhua plans to issue A-shares and pay cash to acquire assets from its controlling shareholder, with a total transaction value of 133.598 billion yuan, which will significantly enhance its coal resource reserves and production capacity [5] - Bohai Chemical has decided to terminate its major asset restructuring plan due to a lack of agreement on key terms, with trading resuming on December 22, 2025 [6] - Jinshi Resources intends to acquire a 15.7147% stake in Noah Fluorine Chemical for approximately 256.94 million yuan, which will strengthen its position in the fluorine chemical sector [8] Group 3 - Qingdao Port plans to invest 9.097 billion yuan in the construction of a container terminal, with an expected internal rate of return of 8.15% [13] - Tianchuang Fashion is undergoing a potential change in control, leading to a suspension of its stock starting December 22, 2025, for a maximum of two trading days [12] - Deyu Water Conservancy has won a bid for a significant irrigation project in Guangxi, with a contract value of 1 billion yuan, which is expected to positively impact future earnings [15] Group 4 - The stock of Guizhou Bailin will be suspended for one day starting December 22, 2025, due to an administrative penalty notice, and will resume trading under the name "ST Bailin" [20] - *ST Weihai's stock will also be suspended for one day and will resume trading on December 23, 2025, with the removal of certain risk warnings [23] - Tianpu Co. has completed a public offering of shares, with a total of 33.52 million shares being offered at a price of 23.98 yuan per share [21]

南华期货LPG2026年年度展望 ——供给韧性延续，需求承压加深 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：沈玮玮（期货从业证书：F03140197 ） 联系邮箱：shenweiwei@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章、核心观点 观点总结 2025年内盘LPG价格呈现宽幅震荡的格局，整体价格重心下降，价格波动加剧。展望26年，我们认为需要重 点关注以下几个方面： 1）供应端：预期明年整体供应依然有韧性。中东明年虽然暂时OPEC+增产放缓，但仍有多个气田相关项目 将投入运营，预期LPG供应仍有增长趋势；美国产量在疲软的原油价格影响下，预期增速放缓，但出口终端 仍持续扩张，对出口量形成正向驱动。 2）需求端：中印作为亚洲LPG需求的主要增长引擎，增速预期也将放缓。在中国，化工行业持续低迷的利润 水平抑制了相关需求；印度方面，民用领域的普及率已逐渐接近饱和，化工需求增长相对缓慢，同时其港口 基础设施仍存在一定限制。另外，韩国裂解产能的整合退出情况也需要持续关注。 综合来看，在供应保持韧性而主力需求增长放缓的背景下，2026年全球LPG市场可能继续呈现价格重心 ...