Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Today, the stock index first declined and then rebounded, with small and medium - cap stock indices breaking through the 30 - day moving average during the session, while large - cap stock indices were relatively resilient. Affected by the "Notice on Improving Duty - Free Shop Policies to Support and Boost Consumption", the Hainan Free Trade concept continued to lead the gains. [4] - Recently, the news has been relatively calm, and the market is mainly driven by capital games. There is a callback pressure on the stock index as some funds in previously high - flying sectors are more willing to take profits. However, due to strong signals of stabilizing the market, the downside space of the stock index is expected to be limited. [4] - In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see. Attention should be paid to the US employment data to be released this week, as it may have a significant impact on the Fed's December interest - rate cut expectations. [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index first fell and then rose, with all indices closing up. For example, the CSI 300 index closed up 0.27%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 2106.62 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IC declined with shrinking volume, IH remained flat, and IM rose with shrinking volume. [2] Important Information - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued an announcement on the tax policy for gold, which will be implemented from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027. This policy is expected to make the gold market's consumption and investment environment more transparent and healthy. [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Asset Management Association of China solicited public opinions on the guidelines for the performance comparison benchmarks of public funds. The introduction of these two documents will promote the standardization of the performance comparison benchmarks of domestic public funds and strengthen the discipline of investment management. [3] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see. [5] Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | - 0.04 | 0.00 | - 0.34 | 0.01 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.5046 | 5.1158 | 14.0206 | 22.9133 | | Trading volume change from previous day (10,000 lots) | - 2.4816 | - 1.2191 | - 0.511 | - 2.4149 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.0097 | 9.6979 | 25.4358 | 36.2939 | | Open interest change from previous day (10,000 lots) | - 0.1034 | - 0.2629 | - 0.0107 | 0.0556 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.55 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.19 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 1.96 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 21071.31 | | Trading volume change from previous day (billion yuan) | - 2106.62 | [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The release of the "14th Five-Year Plan" draft and the phased consensus reached in the China-US economic and trade consultations will reduce the impact of tariff policies on the market, enhance market risk appetite, and promote the return of relevant assets to fundamental pricing. However, the China-US trade friction is a long - term battle, and continuous attention is needed on policy implementation and long - term game dynamics [2]. - The marginal decline of China's manufacturing PMI indicates weakening supply and demand, and subsequent economic development requires policy support. Overseas, after the US interest rate cut, the market will focus on employment and inflation during the US government shutdown, especially ADP data, as well as the end time of the shutdown [2]. - For various commodities, different market trends and investment suggestions are presented, such as precious metals entering a short - term adjustment phase, copper price decline being limited due to increased interest rate cut expectations, and aluminum price increase being driven by speculative funds [13][16][19]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Pay attention to US employment data. Signs of cooling in the US job market are emerging, with the number of corporate layoffs reaching a new high since 2020. The US 10 - month ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7%, contracting for eight consecutive months, with weak demand and employment and cooling inflation. The euro - zone 10 - month manufacturing PMI was 50, with Germany and France continuing to contract [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - Continue to focus on the performance around 7.10. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1225 on November 3, down 90 points from the previous trading day. It is expected that the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB will operate in the range of 7.09 - 7.14 this week, and the key technical point around 7.10 will be the focus of the long - short battle [3]. Stock Index - The long lower shadow indicates support below, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Yesterday, the stock index first declined and then rose, and all closed up. The trading volume of the two markets declined. Futures contracts showed different trends. Due to the recent light news, the market is mainly driven by capital games. It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see, and pay attention to the US employment data to be released this week [4][6]. Treasury Bonds - Maintain a long - term bullish view. On Monday, bond futures generally declined, with TS having a significant decline and other varieties slightly fluctuating downwards. The capital market is loose. The bond market has basically priced in the central bank's bond purchases, and the lack of trading hotspots in the short term. It is recommended to maintain a long - term position but not to chase high [6]. Container Shipping to Europe - The spot index correction puts pressure on the price, and the futures price will continue to fluctuate at a high level. The market is affected by both long and short factors. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to adopt a range - trading strategy [7][9][10]. Commodities Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - Continue to fluctuate and consolidate. The decline in interest rate cut expectations is slight. Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and investment demand growth will push up the price of precious metals, it is currently in a short - term adjustment phase. It is recommended to pay attention to mid - term buying opportunities on dips and hold existing long - term positions cautiously [13][14][16]. Copper - The weakening of the US manufacturing PMI drags down employment prospects, increasing interest rate cut expectations and limiting the decline of copper prices. It is recommended to pay attention to support and pressure levels, volatility - related strategies, and use option - futures combination strategies for downstream and upstream enterprises [16][17][18]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum prices are driven up by speculative funds. Currently, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market is in the transition between peak and off - peak seasons, with weak demand and stable supply. Alumina prices are expected to be weak due to supply surplus, and casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [18][19][21]. Zinc - Be vigilant against short - squeeze risks. The zinc price is strong, and there may be a short - squeeze in the LME. The smelting end has a strong willingness to cut production in November, and there is an upward driving force in November. It is recommended to wait and see exports and the macro situation [21]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fluctuate repeatedly with limited driving forces. The fundamentals and spot market are under pressure, and the 12 - month interest rate cut expectation is uncertain. It is necessary to pay attention to the new year's quota approval progress for nickel ore and the actual situation of stainless steel production cuts [22][23]. Tin - Fluctuate at a high level. The technical resistance level at 290,000 is stable. The supply is weaker than demand, and it is recommended to hold long positions for those who have entered the market and continue to observe for those who have not [24]. Lithium Carbonate - Adjust in a range. The demand of downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase, which will support the futures price. [25] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly due to enterprise production cuts in the dry season, but are restricted by inventory. Polysilicon's spot market is weak, and the fundamentals are bearish [26][27]. Lead - Fluctuate in a narrow range. The high lead price makes downstream acceptance low, and the market has an expectation of future lead ingot shortage. It is recommended to use option - selling strategies to earn premiums [28]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Adjust in a range. Last week, the prices first rose and then fell. With the implementation of macro - positive factors, the price increase needs new stimuli. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coil has increased slightly, and the demand is entering the off - season. It is expected to adjust in a range [29]. Iron Ore - The arrival volume has surged. The supply is abundant, and the demand is under pressure. The price increase is limited, and it is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities after the valuation is repaired [30][31]. Coking Coal and Coke - The tight supply situation has not improved. The coking coal inventory structure has improved, and the third round of coke price increase has been proposed. The demand for coal and coke is relatively stable in the short term. It is recommended to use coal and coke as long - position varieties in the black metal sector [32][33]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Return to the weak fundamentals and adjust in a range. The high inventory and weak demand coexist. The production profit is declining, and the demand is expected to decrease. It is expected to adjust in a range [33][34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Fluctuate horizontally. The geopolitical premium has declined, and the focus is on the OPEC+ meeting. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of $60 - 65 this week, with limited upward and downward breakthrough possibilities [37][38]. LPG - Fluctuate. The supply is increasing, and the chemical demand may decline. The short - term upward driving force is limited [39][40]. PTA - PX - The "anti - involution" rumor boosts sentiment, and the processing fee is repaired at a low level. PX supply is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and PTA supply and demand have improved marginally. It is expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost, but the PTA surplus expectation remains [41][42][43]. MEG - Bottle Chip - The demand has improved marginally, but the valuation is under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - sentiment in the range of 3800 - 4200. It is recommended to use option - selling and short - selling strategies [45][46][47]. Methanol - The 01 contract may continue to decline. The delay of the Iranian gas - restriction expectation and the increase in inventory lead to the decline. It is recommended to hold existing short - call positions [48][49]. PP - The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged. The supply pressure is difficult to relieve fundamentally, and the demand support is limited. It is expected to continue the weak trend [50][51][52]. PE - The driving force is limited, and it will fluctuate weakly. The supply pressure is large, and the demand support is weak. The pattern of supply - strong and demand - weak is difficult to change. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - changes [54][55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - After the macro - factors are digested, they will fluctuate at a low level. Pure benzene is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and styrene has high inventory and de - stocking pressure. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [56][58][59]. Fuel Oil - The crack spread weakens. The high - sulfur fuel oil is in a situation of strong expectation and weak reality, and it is recommended to be bearish on the high - sulfur crack spread [60]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The crack spread strengthens. The improvement of China - US relations and the expectation of supply shortage boost the market [61]. Asphalt - Continue to decline. The supply has decreased, the demand is weak, and the inventory structure has improved. It is recommended to wait and see or try short - selling after the futures price reaches the pressure level [62][63]. Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - The supply and demand are under pressure, and they will fluctuate weakly with the sector. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is limited. It is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in a wide range [64]. Urea - Fluctuate weakly. The supply is increasing, and the domestic demand is weak. It is expected to face pressure in the future [65][66]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash: The supply is expected to remain high, and the price is restricted by high inventory but supported by cost [67]. - Glass: The inventory is declining, but the influence of the coal - to - gas project in Shahe is limited. The game may continue until near the delivery [68]. - Caustic soda: The production is returning, and the market pressure is increasing. The price is restricted by high profit and long - term production capacity expansion [69][70]. Pulp and Offset Paper - The paper price increase is implemented, and the futures price rises. The supply pressure of pulp is slightly reduced, and the demand is mixed. The price of offset paper is expected to be positively affected by the price increase of some enterprises. It is expected to fluctuate or fluctuate slightly strongly in the short term [70][71]. Logs - The spot price in Lanshan continues to decline, and the weak trend continues. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The deepening of the discount in the 11 - 01 contract is worthy of attention [72][73][74].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - In the first ten months of 2025, a total of 87 companies were listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and Beijing Stock Exchange, raising a total of 901.23 billion yuan in funds, indicating a robust capital market activity in China [1]. Group 1: Listing and Fundraising - A total of 87 companies were listed, with 29 on the main board, 29 on the ChiNext, 11 on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, and 18 on the Beijing Stock Exchange [1]. - The total fundraising amount reached 901.23 billion yuan, with Huadian New Energy leading at 181.71 billion yuan [1]. - Other notable fundraisers included Xi'an Yicai and Zhongce Rubber, raising 46.36 billion yuan and 40.66 billion yuan respectively [1]. Group 2: Underwriting and Sponsorship Fees - 33 securities firms participated in the underwriting and sponsorship of the newly listed companies, earning a total of 44.59 billion yuan in fees [1]. - Guotai Junan ranked first in underwriting fees, earning 58.83 million yuan from sponsoring nine companies [1]. - CITIC Securities and CITIC Jianzhong followed in the ranking, earning 54.50 million yuan and 53.56 million yuan respectively [2]. Group 3: Detailed Underwriting Contributions - Guotai Junan sponsored nine companies, including Changjiang Nengke and United Power [1]. - CITIC Securities sponsored seven companies, including Xi'an Yicai and Ruili Kemi [2]. - CITIC Jianzhong sponsored seven companies, including Daosheng Tianhe and Zhongce Rubber [2]. Group 4: Overall Market Performance - The top five securities firms accounted for 50.77% of the total underwriting fees, amounting to 22.64 billion yuan [4]. - Other firms in the top ten included CICC, China Merchants Securities, and Shenwan Hongyuan, with fees ranging from 13.66 million yuan to 23.16 million yuan [4].

Core Insights - The diversified financial sector experienced a slight increase of 0.39% on November 3, with *ST Xiongmao leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3976.52, up 0.55%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13404.06, up 0.19% [1] Stock Performance Summary - *ST Nengmao saw a closing price of 9.93, with a rise of 4.97% and a trading volume of 64,400 shares, totaling a transaction value of 62.95 million yuan [1] - Haide Co. closed at 7.86, up 4.80%, with a trading volume of 946,100 shares and a transaction value of 730 million yuan [1] - Jiuding Investment closed at 19.64, increasing by 4.36%, with a trading volume of 182,400 shares and a transaction value of 356 million yuan [1] - Sichuan Shuangma closed at 21.18, up 4.13%, with a trading volume of 167,000 shares and a transaction value of 350 million yuan [1] - Zhejiang Dongfang closed at 7.36, increasing by 2.79%, with a trading volume of 3,129,800 shares and a transaction value of 2.277 billion yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The diversified financial sector saw a net outflow of 13.69 million yuan from institutional investors and 17.34 million yuan from retail investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 31.03 million yuan [2] - Haide Co. had a net inflow of 81.16 million yuan from institutional investors, while experiencing a net outflow of 82.36 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Sichuan Shuangma recorded a net inflow of 44.44 million yuan from institutional investors, with net outflows from both retail and speculative investors [3]

期货策略周报 I 2025 年 11 月 03 日 该来的都会来 本周主要观点： 当下大环境是宏观需求面偏弱，部分品种此前产业利润偏 高，有补跌的需求。但从估值来说，整体估值偏低，大部分品种 追空的意义不大，选择等待或许是最佳选择。下跌过程也是检验 基本面最好的办法，只有那些真正具备基本面改善的品种，才能 在市场整体下跌过程中表现出持久抗跌。可以关注几类：一是持 续背离结构的品种；二是下跌增仓放量且抗跌的品种。 风险点：反内卷政策落实、宏观政策变化、产业供应变化； 重要声明：本报告内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 南华研究院 投资咨询证号：Z0013611 王建锋 投资咨询证号：Z0010946 胡乐克 投资咨询证号：Z0013991 陈敏涛 期货从业证号：Z0022731 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 该来的都会来 期货策略周报 I 2025 年 11 月 03 日 周行情观点综述 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1290 号 顾双飞 按照宏观需求逻辑来看，甲醇此前的生产利润偏高，甲醇近期的走弱，可以理 解为补跌。在宏观需求整体偏弱的背景下，产业利润偏高，难以持续长久，估值回 落是大概率事 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of four A-share listed futures companies in the third quarter shows significant divergence, with Ruida Futures leading in net profit growth at 42.15% year-on-year, while the overall industry is experiencing substantial growth in market scale and regulatory improvements [2][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Ruida Futures reported a total operating revenue of 1.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.87%, with a net profit of 386 million yuan, marking a 42.15% increase [2]. - Yong'an Futures achieved an operating revenue of 8.36 billion yuan, down 55.26% year-on-year, but its net profit rose by 13.31% to 475 million yuan [2]. - Nanhua Futures had an operating revenue of 941 million yuan, a decline of 8.27%, with a net profit of 351 million yuan, down 1.92% [3]. - Hongye Futures reported an operating revenue of 462 million yuan, a significant drop of 76.77%, and a net profit of 209,970 yuan, down 87.27% [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - As of October 9, 2025, the total funds in China's futures market exceeded 2 trillion yuan, reaching approximately 2.02 trillion yuan, a 24% increase from the end of 2024 [4]. - The total client equity of futures companies was about 1.91 trillion yuan, also reflecting a 24% growth compared to the end of 2024 [4]. - The number of effective clients in the market surpassed 2.7 million, a 14% increase year-on-year, with institutional clients growing by 3% and foreign clients by 11% [5]. Group 3: Regulatory Developments - The China Futures Association announced the implementation of the "Futures Market Making Business Management Rules" starting December 1, 2025, which aims to enhance the management and risk prevention of market-making activities [5][6]. - As of September 2023, 38 companies were engaged in market-making for 61 futures varieties, and 33 companies were involved in market-making for 69 options varieties [6].

Group 1 - The current index level is less significant than the underlying valuation, with structural opportunities still present despite short-term investor caution, particularly in the technology sector [2] - Major industries such as new energy, chemicals, consumer electronics, resources, and machinery are expected to see profit growth, with a focus on traditional manufacturing upgrades and AI applications [2] - The overall market is entering a recovery phase, with improved net profit margins and performance in large-cap stocks, indicating a positive economic outlook [3] Group 2 - The market is expected to experience a period of consolidation, with a shift in investment styles and a focus on sectors like coal, oil, new energy, and non-bank financials [6] - The macroeconomic environment is improving, with potential for policy support and a stable long-term outlook for the A-share market [7] - The focus is shifting towards internal structural optimization and themes such as AI, overseas expansion, and cyclical industries, with an emphasis on sectors like non-ferrous metals and energy storage [8] Group 3 - The market is likely to see a rotation in investment styles, with a focus on sectors that benefit from domestic demand and infrastructure projects [9] - The current high allocation to technology stocks may lead to increased volatility, but the long-term outlook remains optimistic with a potential recovery in earnings [12] - The upcoming period may witness a transition from a growth-driven market to one that emphasizes value and cyclical stocks, particularly in resource sectors [10][11]

南华期货尿素产业周报 ——偏弱震荡 2025/11/02 联系人 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 跟随宏观阶段性利多出尽，尿素弱势回落。从现货角度来看多地雨水暂停，秋收、秋播陆续推进，农业尿 素走货适当增加，尿素企业出货适当好转,虽然多数仅维持产销弱平衡，但相较于前期的惨淡已经有较大好 转。内需方面，内需偏弱是目前价格下跌的主要矛盾，复合肥及工业需求均较为疲软，对价格驱动同样有限 因此中期趋势偏弱。在期货高升水的格局下，期现贸易商采购积极性较强。因此虽然前期宏观与产业共振带 动期货反弹，但后期来看，在出口配额消失的背景下，尿素仍面临较大压力。 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 尿素现货日产销与尿素期货收盘价 元/吨 尿素平均产销(右轴) 尿素期货主力合约收盘价 23/12 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 25/08 1 2 3 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 尿素山东产销季节性 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 0 2 4 6 sou ...

Group 1 - Nanhua Futures Co., Ltd. has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CITIC Securities as the exclusive sponsor, marking its second attempt to list [1] - Nanhua Futures is recognized as a leading futures company in China, ranking second in return on equity (ROE) among all Chinese futures companies for 2024 and first in overseas revenue [5] - The company focuses on providing futures and derivatives services in both domestic and international markets, capitalizing on significant opportunities in China's futures industry driven by policy and market demand [5] Group 2 - The Chinese futures market is the largest commodity market globally, covering over 140 products across 41 industries, including agriculture, energy, and metals [5] - As of the end of 2024, there are 146 listed products in China, including 125 commodities (73 futures and 52 options) and 20 financial products (8 futures and 12 options) [5] - The demand for Chinese enterprises to participate in global financial markets, including futures and derivatives, is increasing, benefiting companies with strong international operations [5] Group 3 - Nanhua Futures' annual profit increased significantly from RMB 245.9 million in 2022 to RMB 458.0 million in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 36.5% [6] - The company's profit remained stable, with RMB 230.5 million for the six months ending June 30, 2024, and RMB 231.3 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025 [6] Group 4 - The net income from commissions and fees for Nanhua Futures was RMB 498.038 million, while net interest income reached RMB 326.538 million [9] - The total operating income for the company was RMB 954.406 million, with operating expenses amounting to RMB 658.362 million, resulting in an operating profit of RMB 296.044 million [9] - The profit before tax was RMB 294.833 million, leading to a net profit of RMB 245.912 million for the year [9]

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures Co., Ltd. has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CITIC Securities as the exclusive sponsor, marking its second attempt to list [1] Company Overview - Nanhua Futures is a leading futures company in China, ranked second in terms of ROE among all Chinese futures companies for 2024 and first in terms of overseas income [4] - The company focuses on providing futures and derivatives services in both domestic and international markets [4] Market Opportunity - The Chinese futures market, after 30 years of development, is experiencing significant opportunities driven by policy and market demand [4] - According to Frost & Sullivan, the Chinese futures market is the largest commodity market globally, covering over 140 products across 41 industries, including agriculture, energy, and metals [4] - The correlation between futures and spot prices exceeds 90%, making it an important pricing benchmark [4] - China operates six futures exchanges, offering a variety of futures and options, with 146 listed products expected by the end of 2024 [4] Financial Performance - Nanhua Futures' annual profit increased significantly from RMB 245.9 million in 2022 to RMB 458.0 million in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 36.5% [5] - The company's profit remained stable, with RMB 230.5 million for the six months ending June 30, 2024, and RMB 231.3 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025 [5] Revenue Breakdown - The net income from commissions and fees increased from RMB 272.3 million to RMB 611.7 million over the reported periods [8] - Net interest income rose from RMB 253.3 million to RMB 681.8 million, while interest expenses increased from RMB 19.9 million to RMB 59.8 million [8] - Operating income grew from RMB 593.1 million to RMB 1.354 billion, reflecting the company's strong performance in the market [8]