南华贵金属日报: 银强金震 关注晚间美PCE 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年6月27日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属市场银强金震，比特币维持震荡，美指跌破98，原油震荡，美股强势亦抑制贵金属避险需求， 铜价异常则带动白银偏强走势。最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报3341.6美元/盎司，-0.04%；美白银2509合 约收报于36.885美元/盎司，+1.22%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合约收报775.28元/克，+0.69%；SHFE白银 2508合约收8796元/千克，+1.7%。数据方面则强化美联储年内降息2次预期，美国25Q1GDP终值下修 至-0.5%，个人消费创疫情以来最弱表现；美国上周初请失业金人数虽低于预期，但续请失业金人数跃升至 2021年11月以来最高；美国5月耐用品订单环比初值16.4%，创2014年7月以来最大增幅。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为79.3%，降息25个基点的概率为 20.7%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为74. ...

证券代码：603093 证券简称：南华期货 公告编号：2025-038 南华期货股份有限公司股票交易异常波动公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： 南华期货股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）股票于 2025 年 6 月 24 日、 6 月 25 日、6 月 26 日连续三个交易日内日收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计达到 20%， 根据《上海证券交易所交易规则》的相关规定，属于股票交易异常波动情形。公 司特别提醒广大投资者注意二级市场交易风险，理性决策，审慎投资。 经公司自查并书面问询公司控股股东、实际控制人，截止本公告披露日， 不存在应披露而未披露的重大信息。 请广大投资者注意投资风险，理性决策，审慎投资。 一、股票交易异常波动的具体情况 公司股票于 2025 年 6 月 24 日、6 月 25 日、6 月 26 日连续三个交易日内日 收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计达到 20%，根据《上海证券交易所交易规则》的相关规 定，属于股票交易异常波动情形。 二、公司关注并核实的相关情况 根据上海证券交易所相关规定，公司 ...

关于对《南华期货股份有限公司股票交易 异常波动问询函》的回复 控股股 有限公司 关于对《南华期货股份有限公司股票交易 异常波动问询函》的回复 南华期货股份有限公司: 本会已于~305年 6 月 16日收到贵司发出的《南华期货股份有限 公司股票交易异常波动问询函》,经认真自查核实,现就相关情况回 复如下: 截至本函发出之时,作为南华期货股份有限公司(以下简称"南 华期货")的实际控制人,除贵公司已披露事项外,不存在影响南华 期货股票交易异常波动的重大事项,不存在其他涉及南华期货应披露 而未披露的重大信息,不存在股票交易异常波动期间买卖南华期货股 票的情形。 南华期货股份有限公司: 本公司于200年 6月24 日收到贵司发出的《南华期货股份有限 公司股票交易异常波动问询函》,经认真自查核实,现就相关情况回 复如下: 截至本函发出之时,作为南华期货股份有限公司(以下简称"南 华期货")的控股股东,除贵公司已披露事项外,不存在影响南华期 货股票交易异常波动的重大事项,不存在其他涉及南华期货应披露而 未披露的重大信息,不存在股票交易异常波动期间买卖南华期货股票 的情形。 特此回复 特此回复 实际控制人:东阳 k联合会 ...

智通财经6月26日电，南华期货(603093.SH)公告称，公司股票连续三个交易日内收盘价格涨幅偏离值累 计达到20%，属于股票交易异常波动情形。经自查，公司目前日常经营活动正常，主营业务未发生变 化，无影响股价的重大经营事项。此外，公司不存在应披露而未披露的重大信息，包括重大资产重组、 发行股份、上市公司收购等事项。公司提醒投资者注意二级市场交易风险，理性决策，审慎投资。 南华期货：生产经营正常 无重大未披露事项 ...

Market Performance - The market experienced a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3455.97 points, marking a new high for the year, and the ChiNext Index rising nearly 3% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 188.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Financial stocks continued to surge, with major banks like ICBC, ABC, BOC, and CCB reaching historical highs [2] - The military industry stocks also performed well, with over 10 stocks, including Great Wall Industry, hitting the daily limit [2] - Chip stocks saw fluctuations, with Taiji Co. hitting the daily limit of 20% [2] - In contrast, oil and gas stocks continued to adjust, with Zhun Oil Co. facing consecutive daily limits [2] Investment Outlook - A positive outlook for A-share funding is anticipated, with long-term capital inflows increasing and ETF sizes steadily growing, providing significant support [3] - The market is expected to present a steady upward trend in the second half of the year, with a focus on large-cap stocks and growth opportunities [3] - Structural opportunities are highlighted in four main areas: safe assets, technological innovation, consumer goods, and mergers and acquisitions [3] Economic Context - The domestic economy is generally stable, but the end of the tariff suspension period in July and August may reveal the impact of exports on economic performance [4] - The importance of domestic demand is emphasized, with potential policy adjustments expected after August [4] - The market's ability to maintain stability above the 3400-point level is crucial, with ongoing monitoring of external factors and the performance of the financial sector [4]

Group 1 - Nanhua Futures (603093) experienced a trading halt today with a daily turnover rate of 9.23% and a total transaction amount of 1.075 billion yuan, showing a price fluctuation of 10.03% [1] - The stock was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's daily trading report due to a price deviation of 8.99%, with a net sell-off of 20.9574 million yuan from the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect [1][2] - The top five trading departments accounted for a total transaction amount of 195 million yuan, with a net sell-off of 30.3972 million yuan, indicating a significant selling pressure [1][2] Group 2 - Over the past six months, the stock has appeared on the trading report eight times, with an average price increase of 0.59% the day after being listed and an average increase of 4.74% in the following five days [2] - The stock saw a net inflow of 163 million yuan from major funds today, with a significant inflow of 122 million yuan from large orders, despite a net outflow of 174 million yuan over the past five days [2] - The company's Q1 report revealed a total revenue of 534 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.20%, while net profit was 85.7383 million yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.13% year-on-year [2]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively rose today, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.72%, and the ChiNext Index up by 3.11% [1] - The total market turnover reached 1.6394 trillion yuan, an increase of 191.5 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 3,900 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance - The financial, military, and semiconductor sectors led the gains, while oil and gas extraction, port shipping, film and television, and beauty care sectors saw the largest declines [2] - The financial sector experienced a significant surge, with multiple stocks such as Huijin Co., Ltd. and Guosheng Financial Holdings hitting the daily limit [2] - The military sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Beifang Changlong and Zhongbing Hongjian also reaching the daily limit [2] - The semiconductor sector saw a rebound in the afternoon, with stocks like Taiji Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit [2] - The oil and gas extraction sector continued to adjust, with stocks like Beiken Energy hitting the daily limit down [2] - The port shipping sector lagged, with stocks like Ningbo Shipping hitting the daily limit down [2] Notable Stocks - Stocks with consecutive limit-ups include Nord Co., Ltd. with 7 consecutive days, and Xiangtan Electric with 5 consecutive days [3][4] - Other stocks with notable consecutive limit-ups include Yinglian Co., Ltd. and Xintonglian with 4 consecutive days [5] Hot Sectors - The top hot sector is New Energy Vehicles, with 15 stocks hitting the daily limit and 11 stocks with consecutive limit-ups, led by Nord Co., Ltd. and Xiangtan Electric [7] - The military sector ranks second, with 14 stocks hitting the daily limit and 3 stocks with consecutive limit-ups, including Jida Zhengyuan and Tiansheng New Materials [8] - The BYD concept ranks third, with 13 stocks hitting the daily limit and 10 stocks with consecutive limit-ups, led by Nord Co., Ltd. and Xiangtan Electric [9] Investment Insights - In the multi-financial sector, stocks like Guosheng Financial Holdings and Hongye Futures are highlighted, with the approval of Guotai Junan International to upgrade its securities trading license to include virtual asset trading, potentially transforming the brokerage role [12] - The military equipment sector is expected to maintain high prosperity in the second half of the year, with strong order fulfillment and production acceleration [13] - In the semiconductor sector, the tightening supply in the DRAM market has led to significant price increases for DDR4 memory products, benefiting companies like Taiji Co., Ltd. and Guomin Technology [14]

Group 1 - The diversified financial sector is experiencing a significant rise, with stocks such as Jianyuan Trust (600816), Xinli Finance (600318), and Hongye Futures (001236) hitting the daily limit [1] - Other companies like Nanhua Futures (603093), Ruida Futures (002961), and Wukuang Capital (600390) are also seeing upward movement in their stock prices [1] - There is an influx of dark pool capital into these stocks, indicating increased investor interest and potential trading activity [1]

南华期货沥青风险管理日报 2025年6月24日 凌川惠（投资咨询证号：Z0019531） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 供需端呈现供减虚增格局，供给端因华南炼厂开工率减低而小幅收缩，库存端环比变动不大，需求体现出一 定的梅雨季节特征。最大的变量依然是伊以冲突引起的地缘溢价，油价大幅上涨沥青裂解走弱，基差走弱， 盘面大幅修复贴水，绝对价格高位。市场理解伊朗报复的程度有限，短期沥青盘面波动完全跟随成本端原油 的走势，目前尚难给出冲突结束的结论，后续需持续关注双方军事进展。短期（6月中下旬-8月初）看进入雨 季造成的需求增速下滑能否匹配高利润下产量增速的抬升，目前初步有一些苗头，短期建议月差正套离场； 中长期看十四五最后一年带来的需求端的增量预期仍然存在，旺季表现仍然可期 。 【利多解读】 1、沥青自身库存结构良好； 2、需求季节性旺季； 沥青风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例（%） 建议入场区间 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The medium- to long-term trend of precious metals is expected to be bullish. In the short term, with the need to wait for interest rate cuts, no escalation of geopolitical risks, and trade tariff negotiations not entering a sensitive period, the overall market is expected to remain in a high-level oscillation. Short-term corrections are regarded as medium- to long-term buying opportunities [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions - On Thursday, the precious metals market showed gold oscillation and silver adjustment. The COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3387.4 per ounce, down 0.61%; the US silver 2507 contract closed at $36.36 per ounce, down 1.5%. The SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 781.24 yuan per gram, down 0.49%; the SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8819 yuan per kilogram, down 1.91% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 89.7%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 10.3%. For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 31.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 61.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 6.7%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 15.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 46.3%, the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 34.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 75-basis-point cut is 3.4% [3]. - In the long term, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 947.37 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 14763 tons. The SHFE silver inventory increased by 14 tons to 1243 tons daily, and the SGX silver inventory increased by 59.6 tons to 1378.9 tons in the week ending June 13 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - The Bank of England's interest rate meeting on Thursday kept the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% unchanged, but the divergence among voting members increased [4]. 3.4 Precious Metals Price and Inventory Data - **Price Data**: The SHFE gold main contract closed at 781.24 yuan per gram, down 4.18 yuan or 0.53%; the SGX gold TD closed at 777.44 yuan per gram, down 4.2 yuan or 0.54%; the CME gold main contract closed at $3387.4 per ounce, up $1 or 0.03%. The SHFE silver main contract closed at 8819 yuan per kilogram, down 226 yuan or 2.5%; the SGX silver TD closed at 8777 yuan per kilogram, down 212 yuan or 2.36%; the CME silver main contract closed at $36.76 per ounce, down $0.42 or 1.13% [4][5]. - **Inventory and Position Data**: The SHFE gold inventory was 18168 kilograms, unchanged; the CME gold inventory was 1175.2202 tons, down 0.009 tons; the SHFE gold position was 161031 lots, down 1390 lots or 0.86%; the SPDR gold position was 947.37 tons, up 1.43 tons or 0.15%. The SHFE silver inventory was 1242.994 tons, up 13.962 tons or 1.14%; the CME silver inventory was 15419.0964 tons, down 26.3768 tons or 0.17%; the SGX silver inventory was 1378.875 tons, up 59.55 tons or 4.51%; the SHFE silver position was 387527 lots, down 58454 lots or 13.11%; the SLV silver position was 14763.000528 tons, up 87.6368 tons or 0.6% [13]. 3.5 Other Market Data - The US dollar index was 98.7857, down 0.066 or 0.07%; the US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.19, down 0.002 or 0.03%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 42171.66 points, down 44.14 points or 0.1%; WTI crude oil spot was $75.6 per barrel, up $0.46 or 0.61%; LmeS copper 03 was $9619.5 per ton, down $31 or 0.32%; the 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.38%, down 0.01% or 0.23%; the 10-year US real interest rate was 2.07%, down 0.01% or 0.48%; the 10 - 2-year US Treasury yield spread was 0.44%, down 0.01% or 2.22% [17].