行 业 专 题 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 9 股票研究 / [Table_Date] 2025.11.24 2025-11-24 即时零售亮眼，电商品类表现分化 [Table_Industry] 批发零售业 "双十一"电商数据总结 本报告导读： "双十一"电商销售平稳增长，渠道侧即时零售高增，品类方面服装鞋帽、化妆品、金 银珠宝等表现较好。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 投资观点：①金价坚挺，珠宝龙头公司陆续完成提价，重点关注标 的：老铺黄金、菜百股份、潮宏基、周大福、六福集团；②市场风 格变化，新消费估值低、景气度高，值得关注；重点关注标的：古 茗；受益标的：蜜雪冰城。③关注超市调改，重点关注标的：步步 高、汇嘉时代、重庆百货、永辉超市、家家悦；④ 消费+科技仍是 重要产业趋势，重点关注标的：小商品城、康耐特光学、天立国际 控股；受益标的：凯文教育。 "双十一"总体表现：根据国家统计局，10 月实物商品网上零售额同 比+4.9%，较 9 月增速放缓 2.4pct。根据星图数据，2025 年"双十一" 大促全期全网电商销售总额 16950 亿元，同增 14.2%（2025 年 10 月 7 ...

汇嘉时代 20251121 摘要 汇嘉时代北京路惠佳门店深度调改后日销额显著提升至 140 万元，其他 门店微调后日销额增长 10%-20%，验证了胖东来模式的有效性，公司 决定以此为标杆，扎实推进其他门店的调改。 公司计划调整员工薪资体系、优化商品结构、拓宽卖场通道及增设便利 设施，而非大规模装修，以降低成本并快速提升门店运营效率。目前已 引入约 105 个胖东来单品，占超市体系销售额的 9%。 汇嘉时代超市业务中，生鲜类产品销售占比超过 55%，烘焙类产品占比 约为 2%，熟食类产品占比约为 8%。调改后超市整体毛利率约为 19%，预计 2026 年第一季度业绩增长将带动毛利率进一步提升。 公司中央厨房建设进程放缓，原因是自有烘焙产能已能满足需求。北汇 店通过供应链切换和品牌优化，SKU 数量稳定在 10,000 至 12,000 个， 与精品超市定位相符。 北汇店调改后净利润率达到 8%，其他调改门店预计达到 3%以上即为成 功。低空业务方面，农林植保业务预计年底展开，载人旅游审批复杂， 预计 2026 年贡献效益。 Q&A 汇嘉时代在商超业务方面的调改进度和效果如何？ 今年 9 月，汇嘉时代对 8 家 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the retail industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by over 5% [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a warming trend in high-end consumption, particularly benefiting offline department stores and supermarkets. It notes that the retail industry has undergone significant changes over the past decade, with a contraction in supply due to the rise of e-commerce and other retail formats. The report anticipates a recovery in offline retail driven by increased policy support and adjustments in supermarket operations [2][3]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests that the "Retail Wheel" theory reveals cyclical patterns in the retail industry. It identifies two main investment themes: 1. Accelerated adjustments in supermarkets, with resilient performance expected from leading regional retail companies such as Chongqing Department Store, Bubugao, Yonghui Supermarket, Huijia Times, Xinhua Department Store, and Jiajia Yue [3]. 2. Department stores with luxury goods operations are expected to benefit from the recovery in high-end consumption, including companies like Hangzhou Department Store and Wushang Group [3]. High-End Retail Market Signals - Several high-end retailers are showing signs of stabilization, with LVMH, Hermès, Prada, and Kering reporting positive revenue growth. For instance, Hermès and Prada saw revenue increases of 9.6% and 8%, respectively. LVMH has returned to positive growth after two quarters of decline, and Kering's losses have significantly narrowed [8]. - Notable sales growth was observed in Beijing and Shanghai's high-end retail locations, with sales increases of 7.8% and 41.9% respectively in the first three quarters [8]. Upcoming Consumer Trends - The extended Spring Festival in 2026 is expected to boost seasonal consumption, with a potential 10-day shopping period when combined with Valentine's Day. Historical data indicates that the first quarter's performance is crucial for annual revenue, suggesting a favorable outlook for 2026 [8]. - The implementation of a nationwide "immediate refund" policy for outbound travelers is anticipated to enhance consumer spending from foreign visitors, with significant increases in the number of travelers and refund amounts reported [8].

Investment Rating - The report highlights a positive investment outlook for the duty-free sector, particularly focusing on China Duty Free Group (中国中免) as a key investment opportunity [2][3]. Core Insights - The upcoming 2026 Spring Festival, which will be the longest in history, is expected to significantly boost the tourism market, with a surge in demand for long-distance and outbound travel [2]. - The initial effects of the new duty-free policy in Hainan are evident, with a reported duty-free shopping amount of 78.549 million yuan on the first day, marking a 6.1% increase compared to the previous day [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies that are likely to exceed expectations in their Q3 reports, including Greenlink Technology (绿联科技) and Jiajiayue (家家悦) [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Duty-Free Sector - The report indicates that the new duty-free policy has led to a notable increase in shopping activity, with 54,800 items sold and 12,700 visitors on the first day of implementation [2]. - China Duty Free Group is highlighted as a key focus for investment due to its strong market position [2]. Jewelry and Gold - The report notes significant price fluctuations in gold, with leading jewelry brands like Chow Tai Fook (周大福) and Lao Feng Xiang (老凤祥) raising prices substantially [2]. - Consumers are reportedly buying gold at lower prices, benefiting companies such as Cai Bai Co. (菜百股份) and China Gold (中国黄金) [2]. Retail and E-commerce - The report mentions a 13-fold increase in order volume for the top 300 brands on JD.com during the Double Eleven shopping festival [2]. - Companies like Focus Technology (焦点科技) and Anker Innovations (安克创新) are identified as key players in the e-commerce sector [2]. Education Sector - The report highlights the ongoing education reform and suggests focusing on companies like Xueda Education (学大教育) and Tianli International Holdings (天立国际控股) [2]. AI and Optical Technology - Continuous iterations in AI glasses technology are noted, with a focus on companies like Conant Optical (康耐特光学) [2].

Core Insights - In November, certain low-priced, high-recognition stocks have shown significant performance, with "Ma" stocks averaging a nearly 2% increase, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index's performance during the same period, with multiple stocks rising over 10% [1] Group 1: Stock Characteristics - The analysis identifies 16 potential strong stocks for the year-end, focusing on those priced between 5 to 15 yuan per share and with a market capitalization below 5 billion yuan [1] - These stocks are predicted to have a net profit growth rate exceeding 30% for both 2025 and 2026, according to institutional consensus [1] - The companies involved are engaged in trending sectors such as quantum technology, AI, and lithium batteries [1] Group 2: Potential Stocks Summary - The table lists various stocks with their latest closing prices, market values, and projected net profit growth rates for 2025 and 2026, along with their associated hot concepts [2] - For instance, "Aoto Electronics" (002587) has a closing price of 6.42 yuan and a market value of 4.183 billion yuan, with a projected net profit growth of 193.43% for 2025 and 111.11% for 2026, focusing on Douyin Doubao [2] - "Liujin Technology" (920021) shows a closing price of 6.87 yuan and a market value of 2.123 billion yuan, with a projected net profit growth of 203.78% for 2025 and 96.00% for 2026, involved in 5G applications [2]

Group 1 - The service industry is expected to benefit from favorable policies, with a significant increase in service consumption anticipated in 2026 due to continuous policy support and demand dividends [3][7][11] - The report highlights the structural growth in emotional value and symbolic consumption, particularly in the IP toy industry, which is rapidly realizing commercial value [3][7][9] - The retail industry is undergoing a transformation towards a decentralized model, with traditional retail facing intense competition and new channels like discount stores and community supermarkets emerging [3][7][9] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of optimizing holiday arrangements and integrating cultural tourism to stimulate demand, particularly for families with children [12][15] - The service consumption structure in China shows significant room for growth, with the current per capita service consumption being much lower than that of developed countries [29][30][32] - The tea and coffee beverage market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with the market size expected to increase significantly, driven by consumer demand in lower-tier cities [56][58][59] Group 3 - The online travel agency (OTA) market is projected to maintain stable profit margins, with companies like Trip.com leading in growth despite slight slowdowns in overseas markets [48][54] - The hotel industry is seeing a gradual improvement in operating data, with a narrowing decline in revenue per available room (RevPAR) expected to continue [37][40][43] - The report indicates that the demand for travel and tourism services is stable, with business travel being a significant source of fluctuations in demand [40][41]

Core Viewpoint - The general retail sector experienced a decline of 1.65% on October 30, with Huijia Times leading the drop. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3986.9, down 0.73%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13532.13, down 1.16% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The general retail sector saw a net outflow of 698 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 677 million yuan [2][3]. - Key stocks in the general retail sector showed mixed performance, with some stocks like Quanzhenhao and Jiajia Ni rising by 2.75% and 2.28% respectively, while Huijia Times fell by 5.35% [1][2]. Group 2: Stock Details - Notable stocks and their performance include: - Quanzhenhao (000007) closed at 8.21 with a rise of 2.75% and a trading volume of 271,800 shares [1]. - Huijia Times (603101) closed at 10.43, down 5.35% with a trading volume of 219,800 shares [2]. - Zhejiang Dongri (600113) had a net inflow of 37.01 million yuan from main funds, but saw a net outflow from retail investors [3].

Core Viewpoint - Huijia Times (603101.SH) reported its Q3 2025 results, indicating a total of 15 institutional investors holding shares, amounting to 37.36 million shares, which represents 7.94% of the total share capital [1] Group 1: Institutional Investors - A total of 15 institutional investors disclosed their holdings in Huijia Times, with a combined shareholding of 37.36 million shares, accounting for 7.94% of the total share capital [1] - The top ten institutional investors collectively hold 7.68% of the shares, which is a decrease of 2.39 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] Group 2: Public Funds - Two public funds increased their holdings compared to the previous period, with an increase rate of 0.10% [2] - Seven new public funds disclosed their holdings this quarter, including Wan Jia New Opportunities Leading Enterprises Mixed A and others [2] - Fifty public funds were not disclosed in this quarter compared to the previous one, including notable funds like Huaxia Industry Prosperity Mixed A and others [2] Group 3: Social Security Funds - One social security fund was not disclosed in this quarter compared to the previous one, specifically Huaxia Fund Management Co., Ltd. - Social Security Fund 422 Portfolio [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, as a retail leader in the Xinjiang region, is poised to capitalize on the recovery of local consumer spending and the increase in tourist numbers, maintaining a competitive advantage in the market [1] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.868 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.18%, with the third quarter revenue at 597 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.12% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 was 80 million yuan, up 60.05% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 74 million yuan, an increase of 86.65% year-on-year [2] - In the third quarter of 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 13 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.23%, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 11 million yuan, up 186.93% year-on-year [2] Business Development - The company has been actively advancing the transformation of its supermarket business, with significant progress noted after the reopening of the Beijing Road store in August, which has achieved over 90% synchronization with the product structure of the successful "胖东来" model [3] - By the end of the third quarter, the company had completed transformations in 8 stores across 7 cities, while also optimizing underperforming locations [3] - The gross margin of the supermarket business improved by 5.69 percentage points year-on-year, with expectations for further benefits in the fourth quarter as stores ramp up operations [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is pioneering low-altitude economy initiatives, having launched drone delivery trials in July, which significantly reduce delivery times for agricultural products [4] - Plans are in place to enhance helicopter services in scenic areas, aligning with the growth opportunities presented by the low-altitude economy [4] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to see positive results from its supermarket business adjustments, with revised net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 108 million, 156 million, and 214 million yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 48X, 33X, and 24X respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]

Core Viewpoint - Huijia Times (603101.SH) reported a total operating revenue of 1.868 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.18% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company reached 80.41 million yuan, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 60.05% [1] - The basic earnings per share stood at 0.1709 yuan [1] Financial Performance - Total operating revenue for the first three quarters: 1.868 billion yuan [1] - Year-on-year revenue growth: 1.18% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 80.41 million yuan [1] - Year-on-year net profit growth: 60.05% [1] - Basic earnings per share: 0.1709 yuan [1]