上 市 公 司 食品饮料 2024 年 08 月 17 日 迎驾贡酒 (603198) ——24H1 点评：洞藏势能仍强，业绩维持高增 | --- | |-------------------| | 2024 年 08 月 16 | | 50.72 | | 82.99/48.26 | | 4.4 | | 2.56 | | 40,576 | | 2,879.43/8,349.87 | | | | --- | --- | |--------------------------|----------------| | 基础数据: | 年 06 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 10.84 | | 资产负债率% | 23.00 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 800/800 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-1609-1610-1611-1612-1601-1602-1603-1604-1605-1606-1607-1608-16 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 迎驾贡酒 沪深300指数 (收益率) 相关研究 《迎驾贡酒（6 ...

结构升级延续 费效提升显著 2024 年 08 月 18 日 ➢ 事件：公司于 8 月 16 日发布 2024 年中报，24 年上半年公司累计实现营收 / 归 母 净 利 润 / 扣 非 后 归 母 净 利 润 37.85/13.79/13.66 亿 元 ， 同 比 +20.44%/+29.59%/+32.65%；其中单 24Q2 实现营收/归母净利润/扣非后归 母净利润 14.61/4.66/4.64 亿元，同比+19.04%/+27.96%/+32.53%，截至 24Q2 期末合同负债 4.62 亿元，同比-8.58%，Q2 期内环比减少 0.53 亿元。用 "单季度营收+Δ合同负债"核算"真实营收"，以抵消公司因订单确认、发货节 奏等因素带来的营收扰动，24Q2"真实营收"14.08 亿元，同比 14.36%，慢于 表端单季度营收增速，或系当前行业需求疲软、渠道备货积极性不高所致。 ➢ 中高端占比持续提升，省外市场恢复增长。分产品看：24Q2 中高档白酒（洞 藏、金银星系列）/普通白酒（百年迎驾贡、糟坊系列）分别实现营收 10.69/3.13 亿元，同比+24.95%/+6.50%。中高档酒占比同比提升 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年08月18日 迎驾贡酒（603198.SH） 优于大市 第二季度净利润同比增长 28%，洞 9 延续较快增长 2024 年第二季度公司收入同比+19.0%，净利润同比+28.0%。公司发布中报，2024 上半年公司实现营业总收入 37.85 亿元，同比+20.4%；实现归母净利润 13.79 亿元，同比+29.6%。其中 2024 年第二季度实现营业总收入 14.61 亿元，同 比+19.0%；实现归母净利润 4.66 亿元，同比+28.0%。 产品结构延续一季度升级趋势，洞藏系列自点率持续提升。分产品看，2024Q2 中高档/普通白酒实现收入 10.69/3.13 亿元，同比+25.0%/+6.5%，预计洞藏 系列增速高于平均，收入占比超过 50%，其中洞 9 在合肥区域接棒增长，洞 6 全 省 范 围 内 增 势 延 续 。 分 区 域 看 ， 2024Q2 省 内 / 省 外 收 入 同 比 +22.9%/+15.3%，洞藏系列在省内合肥、六安等区域自点率持续提升，品牌 势能辐射下皖北、皖南等区域突破顺利。报告期内，公司省内经销商数量净 增加 29 个，平均单经销商收入体量同 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6] Core Insights - The company continues to experience high revenue growth, with total operating income for H1 2024 reaching 3.785 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.44% [4] - The gross profit margin improved to 73.57%, up 2.63 percentage points year-on-year, while net profit margin increased to 36.53%, up 2.55 percentage points [4] - Effective cost control has led to a release of profit elasticity, with net profit for H1 2024 reaching 1.379 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.59% [4] - The company’s core product series, particularly the cave-aged series, is expected to maintain its growth momentum, driving continued improvement in profitability [6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2024, total operating income was 1.461 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.04%, with a net profit of 466 million yuan, up 27.96% [5] - The sales expense ratio decreased to 10.00%, down 1.99 percentage points, and the management expense ratio fell to 3.42%, down 0.60 percentage points [5] - The company’s revenue from direct sales and wholesale channels in Q2 2024 was 0.81 billion yuan and 1.301 billion yuan, respectively [5] Earnings Forecast - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 3.57 yuan, 4.40 yuan, and 5.30 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14, 12, and 10 times [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q2 2024, with total revenue of 1.461 billion yuan, up 19.0% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 466 million yuan, up 28.0% [1] - The growth in revenue is driven by the high growth of the "Cave Storage" product line, which is expected to continue its upward trend [1] - The company has shown consistent performance exceeding market expectations for two consecutive quarters, indicating strong potential in the domestic market [1] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In Q2 2024, the company's mid-to-high-end and regular liquor segments grew by 24.9% and 6.5% year-on-year, respectively, with the mid-to-high-end liquor accounting for 77.4% of liquor business revenue, an increase of 2.9 percentage points [1] - The company’s revenue from domestic and external markets grew by 22.9% and 15.3% year-on-year, respectively, with a focus on expanding domestic market share while targeting Jiangsu province for external growth [1] Profitability Analysis - The gross margin increased by 0.59 percentage points to 71.15% in Q2 2024, primarily due to the high growth of the Cave Storage product line [1] - The net profit margin rose by 2.22 percentage points to 31.95%, driven by product structure upgrades and optimized expense ratios [1] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 8.194 billion yuan, 9.885 billion yuan, and 11.768 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.9%, 20.6%, and 19.0% [2][3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 2.893 billion yuan, 3.595 billion yuan, and 4.358 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 26.4%, 24.3%, and 21.3% [2][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2] Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in H1 2024, achieving revenue of 3.785 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.44%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.379 billion yuan, up 29.59% year-on-year [5] - The growth in mid-to-high-end liquor products is steady, with significant contributions from both domestic and foreign markets [5] - The company is focusing on enhancing its mid-to-high-end product sales model and optimizing its pricing system, leading to an increase in the revenue share from mid-to-high-end liquor [5] Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.461 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.04%, and a net profit of 466 million yuan, up 27.96% year-on-year [5] - The gross margin and net margin for Q2 2024 were 71.15% and 31.95%, respectively, reflecting improvements due to the growth in mid-to-high-end liquor sales [5] - The company expects revenues of 8.22 billion yuan, 9.91 billion yuan, and 11.69 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.3%, 20.5%, and 18.0% [6][8] Market and Product Analysis - The company’s mid-to-high-end liquor (Dòngcáng and Jīnyínxīng series) and regular liquor (Bǎinián Yíngjiāgòng and Zāofāng series) generated revenues of 1.069 billion yuan and 313 million yuan in Q2 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 25.03% and 6.46%, respectively [5] - The company has increased its number of distributors to 1,423, with 779 in the domestic market and 644 in the foreign market, indicating a focus on expanding its core market presence [5] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 2.92 billion yuan, 3.65 billion yuan, and 4.43 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.7%, 25.0%, and 21.2% [6][8] - The projected gross margin is expected to improve to 73.4% in 2024 and further to 75.9% by 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.79 billion RMB for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.38 billion RMB, up 29.6% year-on-year [2]. - In Q2 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 1.46 billion RMB, with a net profit of 470 million RMB, both exceeding market expectations [2]. - The company continues to optimize its product structure, with significant improvements in cost efficiency and a sustained upgrade in product offerings [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For H1 2024, the company achieved revenues of 3.79 billion RMB, a 20.4% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.38 billion RMB, up 29.6% [2]. - Q2 revenue was 1.46 billion RMB, reflecting a 19.0% year-on-year growth, while net profit reached 470 million RMB, a 28.0% increase [2]. Operational Analysis - The company demonstrated resilience in Q2 despite high base effects, with revenue from mid-to-high-end and regular liquor segments reaching 2.95 billion RMB and 670 million RMB respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 24.5% and 9.3% [3]. - The gross margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 71.1% in Q2, driven by a reduction in sales and management expense ratios [3]. - The company’s net profit margin increased by 2.2 percentage points to 31.9% in Q2, attributed to improved gross margins and reduced expense ratios [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are expected to grow by 22.4%, 19.9%, and 17.9% respectively, while net profit is forecasted to increase by 25.8%, 22.9%, and 21.0% [4]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 3.60 RMB, 4.42 RMB, and 5.35 RMB respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14.1, 11.5, and 9.5 [4].

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 4407025 证 券 研 究 报 告 -28% -20% -11% -2% 6% 15% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 本报告导读： [Table_Market] 交易数据 投资要点： [Table_PicQuote] 52周股价走势图 迎驾贡酒 上证指数 [Table_Report] 相关报告 [当前价格： Table_CurPrice] 50.72 结构向上，盈利提升 迎驾贡酒(603198) 食品饮料 [Table_Industry] /必需消费 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|-----------|-------| | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | | 82.37 | | | 上次预测: | 82.37 | | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - In H1 2024, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 20.4% and 29.6% year-on-year, respectively, with Q2 showing a revenue growth of 19.0% and net profit growth of 28.0% [2] - The company is focusing on enhancing its network and marketing quality, with the "洞藏" series showing strong growth. In Q2, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor increased by 24.9%, with the "洞藏" series maintaining a growth rate of over 30% [2][3] - The company has maintained stable cash collection, with a cash collection ratio of 107% in Q2, although there was a slight decline in pre-collection [2] - The net profit margin increased by 2.2 percentage points to 32.0% in Q2, driven by a rise in gross margin and a significant reduction in sales and management expenses [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue (in million yuan) is projected to grow from 6,720 in 2023 to 8,080 in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.23% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 2,288 million yuan in 2023 to 2,901 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 26.81% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to increase from 2.86 yuan in 2023 to 3.63 yuan in 2024 [1] Market Dynamics - The company is expected to benefit from the resilience of mass consumption, particularly in the core market, with a focus on price upgrades in the mainstream consumption segment [3] - The company is expanding its market presence in Anhui province, leveraging sales binding and marketing empowerment to enhance terminal sales [3] Valuation and Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders has been raised to 29.0 billion yuan for 2024, with expected growth rates of 27%, 23%, and 21% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 14, 11, and 9 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3]

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for the first half of 2024 reached CNY 3,785,405,284.83, representing a 20.44% increase compared to CNY 3,143,052,236.98 in the same period last year[19]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2024 was CNY 1,378,642,468.37, up 29.59% from CNY 1,063,862,229.04 in the previous year[19]. - The net cash flow from operating activities increased significantly by 99.61%, amounting to CNY 583,238,973.56 compared to CNY 292,193,621.22 in the same period last year[19]. - The basic earnings per share for the first half of 2024 was CNY 1.72, a 29.32% increase from CNY 1.33 in the previous year[19]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was CNY 1,365,756,829.64, a 32.65% increase from CNY 1,029,632,650.40 in the same period last year[19]. - The company reported a diluted earnings per share of CNY 1.72, consistent with the basic earnings per share, reflecting strong performance in the first half of 2024[19]. Assets and Liabilities - The total assets of the company at the end of the reporting period were CNY 11,297,017,891.45, a decrease of 3.35% from CNY 11,688,755,566.73 at the end of the previous year[19]. - The net assets attributable to shareholders increased by 4.03%, reaching CNY 8,672,459,532.84 compared to CNY 8,336,506,521.47 at the end of the previous year[19]. - Total liabilities decreased to CNY 2,597,757,233.25 from CNY 3,310,909,449.85, a reduction of about 21.49%[87]. - The company's cash and cash equivalents decreased to CNY 1,485,129,729.21 from CNY 2,239,338,913.82, a decline of about 33.67%[85]. Expenses and Costs - The cost of goods sold was ¥1,000,453,311.99, which is an increase of 9.53% from ¥913,377,230.80 in the same period last year[30]. - The sales expenses increased to ¥302,286,349.60, reflecting an 11.99% rise from ¥269,913,436.58 in the previous year[30]. - The management expenses were reported at ¥104,425,403.46, which is a 5.26% increase from ¥99,208,737.16 in the previous year[30]. - The company reported a decrease in R&D expenses to ¥35,048,912.96, down 8.15% from ¥38,158,768.41 in the previous year[30]. Market and Industry Trends - The overall market for liquor remains resilient, with growth in production, sales revenue, and profit, indicating a positive trend in the industry[24]. - Operating revenue growth was primarily driven by the increase in sales of mid-to-high-end liquor products, particularly the Dongcang series[31]. Environmental and Social Responsibility - The company has implemented various environmental protection measures, including desulfurization and denitrification technologies, ensuring that all pollutants meet discharge standards without any environmental violations during the reporting period[54]. - The company actively utilizes biogas, expands photovoltaic power generation, and implements heat recycling systems to reduce carbon emissions in line with national carbon neutrality goals[58]. - The company has engaged in poverty alleviation and rural revitalization efforts, including the development of a liquor-themed town and a grain base to promote agricultural growth and farmer income[59]. - The company’s subsidiary, Yali Packaging, is recognized as a social welfare enterprise, employing over 40 disabled individuals[59]. Shareholder Information - The total number of common shareholders as of the end of the reporting period is 30,622[72]. - The largest shareholder, Anhui Yingjia Group Co., Ltd., holds 577,765,850 shares, representing 72.22% of total shares[75]. - The company has not disclosed any significant changes in share capital structure during the reporting period[71]. Future Outlook - Future outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with ongoing investments in technology and market expansion strategies planned for the upcoming quarters[86]. - The company plans to continue investing in new product development and technology to enhance its market position[122]. Compliance and Governance - The financial report was approved by the board of directors on August 16, 2024, ensuring compliance with regulatory requirements[124]. - The company adheres to the accounting standards and ensures that financial statements accurately reflect its financial position and operating results[127].