行 业 及 产 业 美容护理 2025 年 07 月 29 日 国家育儿补贴出台，改善母婴消费预期 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 聂霜 A0230524120002 nieshuang@swsresearch.com 联系人 聂霜 (8621)23297818× nieshuang@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 看好 ——母婴消费行业点评 本期投资提示： 相关研究 - 研 究 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 报 告 ⚫ 国家育儿补贴方案发布，每孩每年 3600 元，发放补贴至婴幼儿年满 3 周岁，合计每孩 最高可领取 1.08 万元。7 月 28 日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅发布《育儿补贴制 度实施方案》，面向全国育儿家庭发放现金补贴。育儿补贴制度从 2025 年 1 月 1 日 起，对符合法律法规规定生育的 3 周岁以下婴幼儿发放补贴，育儿补贴按年发放，现阶 段国家基础标准为每孩每年 3600 元，发放补贴至婴幼儿年满 3 周岁。对 ...

华西证券 补充，未来地方育儿补贴政策在国家补贴的指引下有望持续出台。短期看，育儿补贴直接降低家庭生育成本，提振生育意愿，下沉市 场更加受益，利好母婴消费品(母婴零售渠道商，母婴用品品牌商及制造商、儿科药品制造商等)、月子中心等；长期需配套托育、教育等政 策，利好早教及少年培训机构。 记者丨李益文 金珊 编辑丨叶映橙 7月29日A股开盘涨跌不一。截至10:30，沪指跌0.09%， 深证成指跌0.27%，创业板指涨0.55%。 全市场超4000只个股下跌。 板块上， 母婴概念股开盘集体爆发 ，贝因美、爱婴室、诺邦股份等多只个股涨停，骑士乳业、西部牧业、太湖雪、孩子王等涨超10%，阳光 乳业、延江股份、可靠股份、戴维医疗等涨超5%。 | ( ロ | | 诺邦股份(603238) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 交易中 07-29 10:36:53 | | | | 21.40 | 额 6373万 | 股本 1.78亿 | 市盈 36.1 | 万得 盘口 | | 1.95 | 换 1.68% 10.03% | 市值1 38亿 | 市净 2.76 | | | 关时 ...

7月29日开盘，A股市场母婴概念股集体爆发，贝因美（002570.SZ）、爱婴室（603214.SH）、诺邦股 份（603238.SH）等多只个股涨停，骑士乳业（832786.BJ）、西部牧业（300106.SZ）、太湖雪 （838262.BJ）、孩子王（301078.SZ）等涨超10%，阳光乳业（001318.SZ）、延江股份 （300658.SZ）、可靠股份（301009.SZ）、戴维医疗（300314.SZ）等涨超5%。 （声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。） 国融证券认为，中国婴童市场正处"量质齐升"黄金期，2024年规模已达4.2万亿元，预计2025年突破5万 亿元，2030年有望达10万亿元。在政策与消费升级驱动下，行业或成下一个万亿级蓝海。 中信证券分析，政策将利好四大方向。乳制品方面，婴配粉需求直接受益生育需求提振，青少年群体扩 容还将间接带动奶酪、液奶消费。母婴连锁板块方面，现已显现改善趋势，头部企业同店收入增速转 正，生育率提升有望进一步推高业绩弹性。婴幼儿用品领域，婴童个护、婴配粉添加剂等细分赛道需求 可期。产后护理服务则因渗透率低（2024年内地仅17% ...

申领渠道方面，家庭可通过线上线下两种方式办理。线上渠道包括支付宝、微信等平台的"育儿补贴"小 程序，以及各地政务服务平台。线下则可前往婴幼儿户籍所在地的乡镇政府或街道办事处现场办理相关 手续。 资金保障层面，中央财政将设立专项转移支付资金，对东、中、西部地区实行差异化补助政策。地方政 府可根据自身财力状况适当提高补贴标准，提标部分将由地方财政承担。补贴资金通过银行卡或社会保 障卡"一卡通"形式发放，确保资金及时足额到位。 这一政策的出台被视为国家应对人口结构挑战的重要举措。通过直接的现金补贴形式，政策旨在减轻家 庭育儿负担，提升生育意愿，构建生育友好型社会环境。 7月29日开盘，婴童概念股迎来强势表现，多只个股涨停封板。贝因美、爱婴室、诺邦股份等股票直接 封住涨停板，骑士乳业、西部牧业等个股涨幅超过10%，阳光乳业、延江股份等也录得5%以上涨幅。 这一轮上涨的直接催化剂来自政策利好消息。7月28日，国家育儿补贴制度实施方案正式公布，该方案 将从2025年1月1日起正式实施。根据方案内容，符合法律法规规定生育的3周岁以下婴幼儿将获得补贴 支持。 据悉，育儿补贴将按年发放，现阶段国家基础标准确定为每孩每年3600 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the textile and apparel industry, highlighting the potential for growth driven by domestic demand recovery and new growth directions [2]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector has shown a mild recovery in domestic consumption, with expectations for acceleration in the second half of 2025. The report emphasizes the importance of adapting to new consumer trends and market dynamics [11][13]. - Recent trade agreements, particularly between the US and Vietnam, are expected to impact the competitive landscape, favoring manufacturers with strong local supply chains [9][10]. - The report identifies key investment opportunities in various segments, including sports and outdoor brands, home textiles, and children's apparel, suggesting a focus on companies that can leverage e-commerce and brand strength [11][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - From July 4 to July 11, the SW textile and apparel index increased by 1.6%, aligning with the SW All A index. The SW apparel and home textiles index rose by 1.7%, while the SW textile manufacturing index saw a 2.3% increase [3][4]. Recent Industry Data - Retail sales for clothing, shoes, and textiles totaled 613.8 billion yuan from January to May, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.3%. Textile and apparel exports reached 116.67 billion USD during the same period, marking a 1.0% increase year-on-year [3][32]. - Cotton prices have shown mixed trends, with domestic cotton prices rising slightly while international prices have decreased [34]. Market Trends - The report notes a significant disparity in textile exports between Vietnam and China, with Vietnam's textile exports growing by 13.5% year-on-year in June, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [9][11]. - The apparel market is experiencing a K-shaped recovery, with high-end and cost-effective segments performing well, while many brands in the children's and women's apparel categories continue to face challenges [11][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong brand recognition and e-commerce capabilities, such as Anta Sports, Bosideng, and others in the textile manufacturing sector like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the textile and apparel industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [2][10]. Core Insights - Domestic demand is showing a mild recovery, which is expected to accelerate, while external demand is impacted by tariff shocks, leading to a divergence in industry performance [2]. - The sportswear segment is experiencing strong demand, particularly in high-performance outdoor products, with significant market growth potential [2]. - The report highlights the resilience of certain brands in the men's and women's apparel sectors, while children's clothing brands are still under pressure [2]. - The home textile sector is benefiting from government subsidies, leading to better performance for key players [2]. - The personal care and household cleaning segment is in a growth phase, driven by diversification and quality upgrades [2]. - The textile manufacturing sector faces challenges from tariff impacts but maintains global competitiveness among leading manufacturers [2]. Summary by Sections Domestic Demand - Retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles reached 613.8 billion yuan from January to May, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3% [2]. - The report anticipates an acceleration in retail growth due to low base effects from the previous year [2]. External Demand - Textile and apparel exports totaled 116.7 billion USD from January to May, with a year-on-year increase of 1% [2]. - Vietnam's textile exports grew by 12%, indicating a shift in supply chains due to tariff policies [2]. Sportswear Segment - The sportswear sector is leading in market performance, with brands like Anta and FILA expected to see significant revenue growth [2]. - The report predicts a 40% increase in revenue for outdoor brands in Q2 2025 [3]. Apparel Sector - Men's apparel brands like HLA are expected to show modest growth, while high-end brands may face profit declines [2]. - Women's apparel brand Geli Si is projected to outperform peers, with a significant rebound in profits [2]. Home Textiles - Key players like Luolai and Mercury are expected to see revenue growth of 3% and 15%, respectively, in Q2 2025 [3]. - The report notes that Fuanna is still undergoing operational adjustments, with expected declines in revenue and profit [2]. Personal Care and Household Cleaning - Companies like Nobon and Weijian are projected to achieve revenue growth of 28% and 20%, respectively, in Q2 2025 [2]. Textile Manufacturing - Major manufacturers like Shenzhou International are expected to see revenue growth of 15% in H1 2025, despite short-term profit pressures [2]. - The report highlights that upstream textile companies are facing order declines due to tariff impacts [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with recovery potential, such as sportswear, discount retail, personal care, and home textiles [2]. - Specific stock recommendations include Anta Sports, HLA, and Luolai [2][5].

海澜之家下半年的业绩趋势如何？ 海澜之家下半年的业绩趋势预期向好。二季度业绩表现相对其他品牌较为出色， 而三季度净利率预计为 8%，四季度则接近 4%，均为过去五六年中单季最差水 平。在当前稳健的零售环境和低基数效应下，公司经营杠杆弹性较大，下半年 华利集团质地优良，成长性明确且业绩弹性大。一季度净利润触底，新 厂产能释放预计二季度小幅改善。尽管下半年存在关税不确定性，但新 客户放量预计整体利润仍可增长，目前估值处于上市以来底部。 诺邦股份作为小型制造公司，业绩弹性优异且基本面强劲，上半年收入 和利润表现出色，通过优化客户和品类结构提升利润率，二季度业绩弹 性较强，新兴业务如口含烟业务拓展将在下半年迎来兑现周期。 利润增速有望大幅提升。此外，二季度整体业绩处于底部周期，一旦三季度零 售边际改善和业绩弹性显现，公司有望迎来弱 Beta 的改善。 海澜之家 20250708 摘要 海澜之家上半年开店数量未达预期，但预计下半年加速，全年门店数有 望超 50 家。二季度业绩相对出色，三、四季度净利率虽为近年低点， 但低基数效应下，下半年利润增速预期大幅提升，具备弱 Beta 改善潜 力。 海澜之家目前估值约 14-1 ...

重要内容提示： 证券代码：603238 证券简称：诺邦股份 公告编号：2025-015 杭州诺邦无纺股份有限公司 部分董事、监事、高管减持股份结果公告 本公司董事会、全体董事及相关股东保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 董监高持股的基本情况 本次减持计划实施前，杭州诺邦无纺股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）董 事、总经理龚金瑞持有公司股份 1,523,950 股，占公司总股本的 0.8585%；公司 董事王刚持有公司股份 870,000 股，占公司总股本的 0.4901%；公司监事会主席 陆年芬持有公司股份 101,500 股，占公司总股本的 0.0572%；公司财务总监张长 春持有公司股份 71,050 股，占公司总股本的 0.0400%。 减持计划的实施结果情况 公司于 2025 年 6 月 13 日披露了《诺邦股份部分董事、监事、高管减持股份 计划公告》（公告编号：2025-014）。因个人资金需求，龚金瑞、王刚、陆年芬、 张长春拟自本公告披露之日起 15 个交易日后的 3 个月内，通过集中竞价交易方 式分别减持其所持有的公司股份不 ...

证券代码：603238 证券简称：诺邦股份 公告编号：2025-014 杭州诺邦无纺股份有限公司 部分董事、监事、高管减持股份计划公告 本公司董事会、全体董事及相关股东保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 董监高持股的基本情况 截至本公告披露日，杭州诺邦无纺股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）董事、 总经理龚金瑞持有公司股份 1,523,950 股，占公司总股本的 0.8585%；公司董事 王刚持有公司股份 870,000 股，占公司总股本的 0.4901%；公司监事会主席陆年 芬持有公司股份 101,500 股，占公司总股本的 0.0572%；公司财务总监张长春持 有公司股份 71,050 股，占公司总股本的 0.0400%。 减持计划的主要内容 因个人资金需求，龚金瑞、王刚、陆年芬、张长春拟自本公告披露之日起 15 个交易日后的 3 个月内，通过集中竞价交易方式分别减持其所持有的公司股 份不超过 380,900 股、217,500 股、25,300 股、17,700 股，均未超过其持股总 数的 25%。减持价格按照减持实施 ...

Group 1 - The company Nobon Co., Ltd. (603238) announced that several key executives plan to reduce their shareholdings due to personal financial needs [1] - The executives involved include the general manager Gong Jinrui, director Wang Gang, chairman of the supervisory board Lu Nianfen, and financial director Zhang Changchun [1] - The planned share reductions will occur within three months after the announcement, starting 15 trading days from the disclosure date, with specific limits on the number of shares each executive can sell [1] Group 2 - Gong Jinrui plans to reduce his holdings by up to 380,900 shares, Wang Gang by 217,500 shares, Lu Nianfen by 25,300 shares, and Zhang Changchun by 17,700 shares [1] - None of the reductions will exceed 25% of their respective total shareholdings [1] - The selling price will be determined based on market conditions [1]