2024 年 11 月 1 日 公司研究 Q3 调整节奏，省内仍具增长势能 ——今世缘（603369.SH）2024 年三季报点评 要点 事件：今世缘发布 2024 年三季报，24 年前三季度公司实现营业总收入 99.42 亿元、同比增长 18.85%，实现归母净利润 30.86 亿元、同比增长 17.08%，其 中 Q3 单季总营收 26.37 亿元、同比增长 10.11%，归母净利润 6.24 亿元、同比 增长 6.61%，Q3 业绩表现略低于我们此前预期。 Q3 收入增幅环比降速。三季度公司收入端同比增长 10%、环比 Q2 明显降速， 鉴于外部需求环境压力较大，公司 Q3 主动放慢节奏、为渠道释压，但整体成长 性在板块内依然较优。1）分产品看，24Q3 特 A+类/特 A 类/A 类产品销售收入 分别为 18.13/6.46/1.09 亿元，同比增加 11.7%/9.55%/7.74%，国缘四开动销 相对稳健、价盘在同价位竞品中亦较为坚挺，但由于外部环境影响叠加本身基数 偏高，估计 Q3 四开收入增速有所放缓，对开收入保持相对较快增长。V 系列所 在价格带受需求承压影响较大，但由于基数较低、估计 V3 ...

[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 10 月 31 日 证券研究报告•2024 年三季报点评 买入 （维持） 当前价：43.94 元 今 世 缘（603369）食品饮料 目标价：55.59 元（6 个月） 产品结构延续升级，经营韧性凸显 [Table_Summary 事件：公司发布] 2024年三季报，前三季度实现营收 99.4亿元，同比+18.9%； 归母净利润 30.9亿元，同比+17.1%。单季度来看，24Q3实现营收 26.4亿元， 同比+10.1%；归母净利润 6.2 亿元，同比+6.6%。收入基本符合市场预期，利 润略低于预期。 结构延续升级，省内精耕+省外扩张路径清晰。1、分产品看，24Q3特 A+、特 A、A 类、B 类、C+D类产品分别实现营收 18.1亿元（+11.7%）、6.5亿元（+9.6%）、 1.1 亿元（+7.7%）、0.4 亿元（-11.9%）、0.2 亿元（-17.8%）。24Q3 百元以上 中高端产品的收入占比同比提升 0.9pp 至 93.3%，增速保持领先。国缘品牌核 心单品卡位 100-300 元主流消费价位带快速放量，在竞争加剧下维持双位数逆 势增 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][7]. Core Views - The company's revenue growth rate has slowed down in the third quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 10.1% and a net profit increase of 6.6%. The total revenue for Q3 2024 reached 9.94 billion yuan, up 18.8% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.09 billion yuan, up 17.1% year-on-year [4][5]. - The company is expected to focus on inventory reduction in the fourth quarter to prepare for the upcoming Spring Festival sales, leading to a downward adjustment in revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 [7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 26.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit of 6.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [4][5]. - The revenue from premium products (A+ and A categories) was 18.1 billion yuan and 6.5 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.7% and 9.6% [5][6]. Regional Performance - Revenue from the domestic market in Q3 2024 was 24.23 billion yuan, up 9.32% year-on-year, with the Suzhong and Huai'an regions showing faster growth rates of 12.89% and 10.10% respectively [5][6]. Profitability and Margins - The overall gross margin in Q3 2024 decreased by 5.14 percentage points to 75.6%, primarily due to increased promotional discounts during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [6][7]. - The net profit margin slightly declined by 0.78 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Cash Flow and Inventory - The net operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 983 million yuan, down 16.9% year-on-year, indicating pressure on cash flow and prepayments [6][7]. - The company is experiencing high inventory levels, which may affect its sales strategies in the near term [7][8]. Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 11.635 billion yuan, 13.058 billion yuan, and 14.622 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 15.2%, 12.2%, and 12.0% respectively [7][8]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 3.551 billion yuan, 3.990 billion yuan, and 4.544 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.2%, 12.4%, and 3.9% respectively [7][8].

公 司 研 究 2024 年 10 月 31 日 公司点评 买入/维持 今世缘(603369) 目标价: 60.12 昨收盘:43.94 今世缘：三季度业绩符合预期，产品结构势能延续 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong potential for outperforming the market [5][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 9.94 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting an 18.9% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 3.09 billion, up 17.1% year-on-year [5][6]. - The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 2.64 billion, a 10.1% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 620 million, growing 6.6% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company is positioned as a strong regional leader with solid growth potential, supported by its clear brand positioning and product structure that aligns with consumer trends in Jiangsu province [5][6]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company forecasts net profits of 3.61 billion, 4.10 billion, and 4.41 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 15%, 14%, and 8% [5][6]. - The gross profit margin for the third quarter of 2024 was 75.6%, down 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 23.7%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points [5][6]. - The operating cash flow for the third quarter of 2024 was 980 million, compared to 1.18 billion in the same period last year, indicating a slower cash flow growth relative to revenue [5][6]. Product Performance - The revenue from premium products in the third quarter of 2024 was 1.81 billion, showing an 11.7% year-on-year increase, accounting for 69% of total revenue [5][6]. - The company launched a new high-end product, enhancing its brand strength and market presence [5][6]. Market Trends - The company continues to see faster growth in the provincial markets outside Jiangsu, with a 23% year-on-year increase in revenue from these regions [5][6]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the mid-to-high-end market segments and the exploration of markets outside the province [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company actively controls its delivery rhythm, with growth momentum still present despite a challenging consumption environment [4][5] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 9.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.09 billion yuan, up 17.1% year-on-year [3] - In the third quarter of 2024, revenue was 2.64 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, and net profit was 620 million yuan, a 6.6% increase year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported a gross margin of 75.6% in Q3 2024, down 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to discounts and channel rebates [4] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 23.7%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company’s revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 3.64 billion, 4.08 billion, and 4.49 billion yuan respectively [5] Product and Market Performance - Revenue by product in Q3 2024 was as follows: Special A+ 1.81 billion yuan (+12%), Special A 650 million yuan (+10%), A class 110 million yuan (+8%), B class 40 million yuan (-12%), and C+D class 20 million yuan (-18%) [4] - Regional revenue growth was stronger in Suzhong and outside the province, with notable increases in Huai'an, Nanjing, and Suzhou [4] Financial Metrics - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 21.63 billion yuan in 2023 to 31.93 billion yuan by 2026 [9] - The net profit for 2023 is reported at 3.14 billion yuan, with projections of 3.64 billion yuan for 2024 and 4.49 billion yuan for 2026 [11] - The company maintains a healthy financial position with a debt-to-asset ratio of 38.6% in 2023, expected to decrease to 34.5% by 2026 [11]

大家好欢迎参加国军时评金士元2024三级榜线上议局说明会目前所有参会者均处于静音状态下面有请主持人讲话谢谢啊好的那各位投资者大家上午好啊我是国泰圈研究所之猛那今天呢 我们也是非常荣幸邀请金士元财务总监董秘王总来跟大家就三级包的情况做个沟通也会对未来做一些简洁的展望后续大家有什么问题都可以交流从三级包的情况来看的话金士元表现还是非常优异的希望收入能保持双位数的增长利润虽然慢一点我们感觉还是整体行业横向比较还是非常不错的增速 从整个行业的角度来看的话,我也看了一下,今年三季报的确大家都保持得相对来说还是比较理性的,三季度的整体的增速基本上都放了一个台阶。基本上能保持双位数增长的六家公司,如果不考虑房财的话,基本上单季度收入能保持双位数增长的就五家。关键是我们也看到,公司保持双位数增长,从生产负债表, 来看的话那整体的这个回款啊这个还是比较良性的啊一个增长就资产负债表和利润表还是相对来说还是比较匹配的那从整个省内的情况来看我们看到啊三季度啊也整个的这个市占率啊出现了大幅提升的这种啊趋势啊所以整个市头还是相对这个比较不错的虽然在面临了整个大的这个呃环境的这种压力啊但是公司 还是做出了非常不错的这种业绩那我们今天这个第 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][2] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth with revenue and profit in line with expectations, achieving a total revenue of 9.942 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, representing an 18.85% year-on-year increase [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.086 billion yuan, up 17.08% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 3.074 billion yuan, reflecting a 16.59% increase [1] - The report highlights an optimization in expense investment, despite a significant decline in gross margin [1] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, total revenue was 2.637 billion yuan, a 10.11% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 624 million yuan, up 6.61% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was reported at 74.27%, down 1.99 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 31.04%, down 0.47 percentage points [1] - The report indicates that sales and management expense ratios for Q1-Q3 2024 were 15.35% and 3.29%, respectively, with a notable increase in sales expenses [1] Product and Market Structure - The product structure remains strong, with rapid growth in markets outside the province. For Q3 2024, revenue from various product categories showed a year-on-year increase, with premium products maintaining robust growth [1] - Revenue from direct sales and wholesale channels for Q1-Q3 2024 was 1.53 billion yuan and 9.731 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a year-on-year increase of 25% and 19% [1] - Revenue from provincial and out-of-province markets for Q1-Q3 2024 was 9.081 billion yuan and 804 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 18% and 33% [1] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory post the 10 billion yuan milestone, with adjusted EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 at 2.86, 3.17, and 3.62 yuan, respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 15, 14, and 12 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 75 yuan, compared to the current price of 43.94 yuan [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 9.94 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing an 18.8% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 3.09 billion yuan, up 17.1% year-on-year. However, Q3 revenue was 2.64 billion yuan, a 10.1% increase year-on-year, and net profit was 620 million yuan, a 6.6% increase year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in growth [1][2]. - The report highlights that the Q3 performance was below expectations due to weakened external demand and increased discounts affecting gross margins. The company is adjusting its annual targets to manage high inventory levels and slow down cash collection [2][3]. - Despite the challenges, the company is expected to maintain its market share in the domestic market, with a focus on core products and a strategy to protect pricing [2][3]. Financial Summary - For 2023A, total revenue is projected at 10.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28.0%. The net profit is expected to be 3.136 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 25.3% [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024E is estimated at 2.89 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15 times [8]. - The gross margin for Q3 was reported at 75.6%, down 5.1 percentage points from the previous year, primarily due to policy adjustments and significant discounting [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating and lowers the target price to 52.73 CNY from the previous 78.26 CNY, reflecting adjustments in profit forecasts for 2024-2026 [3][4][11]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 met expectations, with proactive adjustments leading to stable revenue and high profitability. The industry is experiencing a trend of squeezed growth, but the company maintains a strong performance outlook [2][3][11]. - Revenue for Q3 2024 was 2.637 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 10.11%, while net profit was 624 million CNY, up 6.24% year-on-year [14]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a "Buy" rating and revises the target price to 52.73 CNY, corresponding to a 17X dynamic PE for 2025 [3][4][11]. Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue and profit performance were in line with expectations, with revenue showing resilience despite a sequential slowdown. The company adopted a focused strategy, with significant growth in specific regions [11][12]. - The company’s gross margin and sales expense ratio decreased by 5.14 percentage points and 3.90 percentage points year-on-year, respectively, while the net profit margin remained high at 23.68% [12]. Market Position and Risk Resilience - The company exhibits strong channel capabilities and high market share, which enhances its risk resilience amid industry challenges. The report anticipates that the company's performance will remain superior to its peers during the adjustment phase [12].