今世缘（603369.SH）2024 年三季报点评 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 降费稳价调整节奏，维持渠道良性发展 2024 年 10 月 31 日 ➢ 事件：公司于 10 月 30 日发布 2024 年三季报，24Q1-3 实现营收 99.4 亿 元，同增 18.9%；实现归母净利润 30.9 亿元，同增 17.1%；扣非归母净利润 30.7 亿元，同比+16.6%。单季度看，公司 24Q3 实现营收 26.4 亿元，同增 10.1%； 实现归母净利润 6.2 亿元，同增 6.6%；扣非归母净利润 6.3 亿元，同比+7.3%。 ➢ 产品结构持续提升，苏中、省外市场延续扩张。分产品看，2024Q1-3 特 A+ 类实现营收 64.7 亿元，同比+18.9%；特 A 类 28.6 亿元，同比+21.9%；A 类 3.7 亿元，同比+12.3%；B 类 1.2 亿元，同比-5.7%；C、D 类 0.6 亿元，同比11.0%，特 A 类及以上产品增速领先。公司核心大单品国缘四开卡位主流消费价 位带快速放量，对开、淡雅、典藏等大众消费产品增长势头良好，V 系通过渠道 分利优势及核心意见领袖培 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, with a target price of 43.94 yuan [3][5] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 9.94 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.1% [2] - The company's product structure continues to improve, with the Suzhong and out-of-province markets expanding rapidly [2] - The company's core product, Guoyuan Sikai, is positioned in the mainstream consumption price range and is growing rapidly, while other products such as Duikai, Danya, and Diancang are also performing well [2] - The company launched a new high-end product, Guoyuan 2049, in October, targeting the 1,000 yuan price range [2] - The company's gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 74.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 31.0%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5 percentage points [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024 is expected to be 11.73 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.1%, and net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.7% [4] - The company's revenue for 2025 is expected to be 13.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.2%, and net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 4.08 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.4% [4] - The company's revenue for 2026 is expected to be 14.97 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.7%, and net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 4.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.6% [4] - The company's gross profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 78.19%, a slight decrease from 78.34% in 2023, while the net profit margin is expected to be 30.67%, a slight decrease from 31.06% in 2023 [7] - The company's total assets are expected to increase from 21.63 billion yuan in 2023 to 32.84 billion yuan in 2026, with a corresponding increase in shareholder equity from 13.29 billion yuan to 21.17 billion yuan [10] Market and Product Analysis - The company's revenue from the Suzhong region increased by 27.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, while revenue from out-of-province markets increased by 32.7% [2] - The company's revenue from wholesale and agency channels increased by 18.7% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, while revenue from direct sales (including group purchases) increased by 24.9% [2] - The company's revenue from high-end products (Te A+ and Te A) increased by 18.9% and 21.9% year-on-year, respectively, in the first three quarters of 2024, while revenue from lower-end products (B, C, and D) decreased [2] Valuation and Forecast - The company's current P/E ratio is 15x for 2024, 14x for 2025, and 12x for 2026 [4] - The company's P/B ratio is expected to decrease from 4.1x in 2023 to 2.6x in 2026 [4] - The company's EV/EBITDA ratio is expected to decrease from 12.44x in 2023 to 8.29x in 2026 [9]

证券研究报告 今世線 (603369 CH) 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(人民币): 54.08 研究员 SAC No. S0570520100001 gongyuanyue@htsc.com SFC No. BQL737 +(86) 21 2897 2228 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------| | | | | 6开奖, 15 | 宋英男 | | SAC No. S0570523100004 联系人 | songyingnan@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 胡冻 | | SAC No. S0570124070052 hudong024041@htsc.com | | +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|-------------| | | | | | | | 日标价 (人民币) | 54. ...

来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所 事件 2024 年 10 月 30 日，公司披露 24 年三季报，期内实现营收 99.4 亿元，同比+18.9%；归母净利 30.9 亿元，同比+17.1%。其中，24Q3 实现营收 26.4 亿元，同比+10.1%；归母净利 6.2 亿元，同比+6.6%， 基本符合市场预期。 经营分析 产品端，24Q1-Q3 特 A+类/特 A 类分别实现营收 64.7/28.6 亿元， 同比+19%/+22%；其中，24Q3 分别实现营收 18.1/6.5 亿元，同比 +12%/+10%，结构上预计延续上半年趋势。期内毛利率同比-5.1pct 至 75.6%，预计与调整货折等渠道返利政策相关，考虑销售费用率 -3.9pct 后毛销差-1.2pct，预计与景气波动下追加渠道费投相关。 区域端，24Q1-Q3 省内实现营收 90.8 亿元，同比+18%；单 Q3 省内 实现营收 24.2 亿元，同比+9%，其中南京/淮安/苏中/苏南/盐城/ 淮海大区分别+8%/+10%/+13%/+8%/+9%/+7%，苏中大区增速延续相 对成长性，其他省内区域增速差异有限。此外，Q3 省外实现营收 2.0 ...

证券代码：603369 证券简称：今世缘 公告编号：2024-025 江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司 第五届监事会第六次会议决议公告 本公司监事会及全体监事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第五届监事会第六次会议于2024 年10月30日在涟水县高沟镇今世缘大道1号公司会议室召开，会议通知已于2024年10月 26日以电子邮件、专人送达或电话通知等方式发出。本次会议应参与表决监事3人，实 际参与表决监事3人。会议的通知及召开程序符合《公司法》及公司《章程》的要求。 本次会议由监事会主席倪从春先生主持，与会监事形成决议如下： 一、审议通过了《公司2024年第三季度报告》。 监事会对《公司2024年第三季度报告》进行了审核，认为：《公司2024年第三季度 报告》的编制和审议程序符合法律、法规的规定，其所包含的信息真实、准确、完整地 反映出公司2024年第三季度的主要经营情况和财务状况，未发现所载资料存在虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 特此公告。 江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司 监事会 二○ ...

证券代码：603369 证券简称：今世缘 公告编号：2024-026 江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司 2024 年 1-9 月份与行业相关的定期经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第3 号——行业信息披露》之 《第十二号——酒制造》相关规定，现将江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司2024 年 1-9 月份与行业相关的定期经营数据（未经审计）披露如下： 一、 产品分档次、地区的情况 公司以行政区域作为分地区标准，江苏省内淮安大区包括淮安、宿迁，南京大区包括南京、镇江，苏 南大区包括苏州、无锡、常州，苏中大区包括扬州、泰州、南通，盐城大区包括盐城、连云港，淮海大区 包括徐州；省外指江苏省以外。 二、 产品销售渠道 单位：元 币种:人民币 | 渠道类型 | 本期销售收入 | | --- | --- | | 直销（含团购） | 152,983,403.79 | | 批发代理 | 9,731,077,627.35 | 三、经销商情况 单位:个 | 区域名称 | 期初经销商数量 ...

Revenue and Profit - Revenue for Q3 2024 increased by 10.12% year-on-year, reaching ¥9,940,552,295.08, with a year-to-date increase of 18.86%[2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 6.61% to ¥3,085,799,149.86, with a year-to-date increase of 17.08%[2] - Basic earnings per share for the quarter was ¥6.62, reflecting a 17.08% increase compared to the same period last year[3] - Total operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached ¥9,941,582,189.34, an increase of 19% compared to ¥8,365,157,112.39 in the same period of 2023[15] - The company's net profit for the first three quarters was ¥4,113,026,946.10, compared to ¥3,506,400,303.32 in the same period last year, indicating a growth of about 17%[16] - The net profit for the third quarter of 2024 reached CNY 3,085,799,149.86, an increase from CNY 2,635,572,931.19 in the same period last year, representing a growth of approximately 17.1%[17] - The total comprehensive income for the third quarter of 2024 was CNY 3,085,184,208.63, compared to CNY 2,635,572,931.19 in the previous year, indicating a year-over-year increase of about 17.0%[17] - Basic and diluted earnings per share for the third quarter of 2024 were both CNY 2.4750, up from CNY 2.1139 in the same quarter of 2023, reflecting an increase of approximately 17.1%[17] Assets and Equity - Total assets at the end of the reporting period amounted to ¥22,386,807,353.50, representing a 3.50% increase from the end of the previous year[3] - Shareholders' equity attributable to the parent company increased by 13.88% to ¥15,130,942,134.92 compared to the end of the previous year[3] - The total equity attributable to shareholders reached ¥15,130,942,134.92, compared to ¥13,286,816,788.29 in the previous year, marking an increase of approximately 13.9%[14] - The total assets of the company amounted to ¥22,386,807,353.50, an increase from ¥21,630,647,731.29 year-over-year[14] Cash Flow - Cash flow from operating activities for the year-to-date was ¥2,229,839,569.15, showing a 12.55% increase[2] - Cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 2,229,839,569.15, compared to CNY 1,981,202,717.33 in the same period of 2023, marking an increase of about 12.5%[18] - Cash inflow from operating activities totaled CNY 9,473,429,993.71 for the first three quarters of 2024, up from CNY 9,023,047,216.91 in the previous year, representing an increase of approximately 5.0%[18] - Cash outflow from operating activities was CNY 7,243,590,424.56, compared to CNY 7,041,844,499.58 in the same period last year, showing an increase of about 2.9%[18] - The ending balance of cash and cash equivalents as of the end of the third quarter of 2024 was CNY 5,911,126,477.05, down from CNY 6,250,543,333.35 at the end of the same period last year, representing a decrease of approximately 5.4%[19] Operating Costs and Expenses - The company experienced a 39.46% increase in operating costs, attributed to sales growth and product upgrades[6] - Total operating costs increased to ¥5,849,900,926.10, compared to ¥4,909,336,155.65 in the previous year, reflecting a rise of approximately 19%[16] - Operating expenses for the current reporting period amount to CNY 1,113.62 million, significantly higher than CNY 30.07 million for the year-to-date, mainly due to increased charitable donations compared to the same period last year[8] Investments and Financial Position - The company has increased its investment cash payments to CNY 131.96 million for the current period, reflecting a rise in the purchase of financial products compared to the same period last year[8] - The company reported a significant increase in cash payments for fixed assets, intangible assets, and other long-term assets, amounting to CNY -32.00 million for the current period[8] - The company's long-term equity investments increased to CNY 46.88 million from CNY 41.42 million year-over-year[12] - The net cash flow from investing activities for the first three quarters of 2024 was -CNY 1,425,571,698.30, a decline from -CNY 673,241,659.64 in the previous year, indicating a worsening of investment cash flow[19] Shareholder Information - The total number of ordinary shareholders at the end of the reporting period is 44,123, with the largest shareholder, Jianshiyuan Group Co., Ltd., holding 561,049,038 shares, representing 44.72% of the total[9] - The company has not reported any significant changes in shareholder relationships or actions among the top ten shareholders[11]

证券代码：603369 证券简称：今世缘 公告编号：2024-024 江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司 第五届董事会第九次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 特此公告。 江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司 董事会 二○二四年十月三十一日 本次会议由董事长顾祥悦先生主持，与会董事形成决议如下： 一、审议通过了《公司2024年第三季度报告》。 本议案已经公司董事会审计委员会事前审议通过。 表决结果：11票赞成，0票反对，0票弃权。 具体内容详见与本公告同日刊载于上海证券交易所网站(www.sse.com.cn)的《江苏 今世缘酒业股份有限公司2024年第三季度报告》。 江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第五届董事会第九次会议于2024 年10月30日以通讯表决方式召开，会议通知已于2024年10月26日以电子邮件、专人送达 或电话通知等方式发出。本次会议应参与表决董事11人，实际参与表决董事11人。会议 的通知及召开程序符合《公司法》及公司《章程》的要求。 1 ...

证券简称：今世缘 证券代码： | 来访单位 | 华创证券、国泰君安证券、长江证券、广发证券、国投证券、 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 申万宏源证券、中金公司、浙商证券、中信证券、中信建投证 | | | | | 券、方正证券、海通证券、国信证券、华泰证券、东北证券、 | | | | | 兴业证券、光大证券、华鑫证券、国海证券、华西证券 | | | | 投资者类 | □机构投资者 | √证券公司 | □媒体 | | 型 | □个人投资者 | □其他 | | | 会议形式 | | 现场会议 | | | 时间 | 2024 年 9 月 公司会议室 | 地点 | | | | 董事长、总经理 顾祥悦 | | | | 上市公司 | 董事、副总经理、总会计师、董事会秘书 王卫东 | | | | 出席人员 | 副总监、证券部经理、证券事务代表 夏东保 | | | | | 证券部副经理 徐青 | | | 投资者关系活动主要内容介绍： 问题 1：怎么看待白酒行业的周期和状态，公司自己怎么设定目标？ 回复：从今年中秋看确实感受到一定压力。今年中秋节消费存在一定特殊性，因为 今年中秋和国庆是分 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/食品/饮料 证券研究报告 今世缘（603369）公司信息点评 2024 年 09 月 24 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | 股票数据 | | | 09 [ Table_StockInfo 月 23 日收盘价（元） ] | 38.27 | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 35.35-62.00 | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（百万股） | 1255/1255 | | 总市值 / 流通市值（百万元） | 48010/48010 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《 增 长 势 能 延 续 ， 迈 入 后 百 亿 时 代 》 | | | 2024.08.19 | | | 《增长势能持续，省外表现亮眼》 | | | 《开系焕新升级提价，春节旺销表现亮眼》 | | | 2024.03.02 市场表现 | ...