Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [6]. Core Views - The company experienced a year-on-year decline in performance due to increased volume but decreased prices, with Q3 net profit dropping by 27.21% compared to the same period last year [1][3]. - The company’s overall and domestic available seat kilometers (ASK) increased by 18% and 4% respectively in the first three quarters of 2024, indicating a recovery in supply and demand [2]. - The report projects a downward adjustment in the company's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 due to a more relaxed industry supply and overall price decline, with expected net profits of 11.31 billion, 18.87 billion, and 25.26 billion respectively [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.271 billion yuan, a 10.12% increase year-on-year, while the net profit for Q3 alone was 782 million yuan, a decrease of 27.21% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected to be 20.096 billion yuan, with a growth forecast of 11.3% for 2024 [5]. Operational Metrics - The fleet size increased by 7 aircraft to a total of 124 by the end of September 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 5.98% [2]. - The passenger load factor for the company was 84.94%, showing a 2.20 percentage point improvement compared to the same period last year [2]. Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) to be 0.34 yuan for 2023, increasing to 0.51 yuan in 2024, and further to 0.85 yuan in 2025 [5]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 24.7x for 2024, decreasing to 14.8x in 2025 and 11.1x in 2026, indicating a potential improvement in valuation as earnings grow [3][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1]. Core Views - The company's revenue in Q3 2024 was 6.54 billion, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year, but an increase of 32.2% compared to the same period in 2019. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 782 million, down 27.2% year-on-year, but up 18.9% compared to 2019 [1]. - The company is increasing investment in international routes, with significant room for improvement in passenger load factors. In Q3 2024, the company's ASK and RPK increased by 13.4% and 12.7% year-on-year, respectively, with a passenger load factor of 85.74%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The unit revenue decreased significantly year-on-year, while the unit cost saw a notable decline. The unit RPK revenue in Q3 2024 was 0.509 yuan, down 11.4% year-on-year, and the unit ASK cost was 0.346 yuan, down 3.7% year-on-year [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of 17.49 billion, an increase of 10.15% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.271 billion, up 10.1% year-on-year [1]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is 1.161 billion, 1.825 billion, and 2.419 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 54.5%, 57.2%, and 32.5%, respectively [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected to be 0.53, 0.83, and 1.10 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 24.09, 15.32, and 11.56 [2].

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 上海吉祥航空股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）已于 2024 年 10 月 31 日 发布公司 2024 年第三季度报告，为便于广大投资者更全面深入地了解公司 2024 年第三季度经营成果、财务状况，公司计划于 2024 年 11 月 13 日（周三） 15:00-16:30 参加"2024 年上海辖区上市公司三季报集体业绩说明会"活动，就 投资者关心的问题进行交流。 证券代码：603885 证券简称：吉祥航空 公告编号：临 2024-098 上海吉祥航空股份有限公司 关于参加 2024 年上海辖区上市公司三季报集体业绩说明会的公告 一、说明会类型 二、说明会召开的时间、地点 （一）会议召开时间：2024 年 11 月 13 日（周三）15:00 至 16:30 1 会议召开时间：2024 年 11 月 13 日（周三）15:00-16:30 会 议 召 开 地 点 ： 上 海 证 券 交 易 所 上 证 路 演 中 心 （ 网 址 ： http://roadsho ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 32.36 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.02 billion yuan, up 12.4% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 11.49 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.66 billion yuan, down 3.2% year-on-year [1] - Passenger demand continues to grow, although the growth rate in Q3 has slowed down, with national railway passenger volume increasing by 6.8% year-on-year [1] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2024 was 49.6%, a decrease of 0.84 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to stable costs despite declining revenue [1] - The company’s operating expenses ratio improved, with a decrease of 1.02 percentage points in the period expense ratio to 5.6% in Q3 2024 [1] - The National Day holiday data showed record high passenger numbers, indicating potential for continued profit improvement [1] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 12.83 billion yuan, 14.97 billion yuan, and 16.68 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates [1] Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - Revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 was 32.36 billion yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year, driven by a recovery in the domestic railway passenger market [1] - National railway passenger volume reached 3.34 billion, a 13.8% increase year-on-year, while passenger turnover increased by 8.8% [1] - Q3 2024 saw a decline in revenue and net profit, primarily due to weaker passenger volume on the company's line [1] Financial Metrics - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 49.6%, with a slight year-on-year decline [1] - The period expense ratio improved to 5.6%, with a notable decrease in financial expenses due to reduced borrowing costs [1] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 31.8%, down 0.73 percentage points year-on-year [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a flexible pricing mechanism and increasing demand for business travel, which will support future price increases [1] - The performance during the National Day holiday suggests a positive trend for profitability moving forward [1] - The company’s net profit forecasts have been revised downwards, reflecting anticipated challenges in passenger growth rates [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [3][19]. Core Views - The airline industry is experiencing a recovery in supply and demand, with changes in revenue strategies impacting the company's Q3 performance, which was slightly below expectations. The company is expected to show significant profit elasticity due to its high-quality route network [2][3]. - The company reported a net profit of 1.27 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12%. However, Q3 profit was 780 million yuan, a decrease of 27% compared to Q3 2023, but a 19% increase compared to Q3 2019 [2]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its domestic high-quality route network and is optimistic about its international strategy, with plans to expand its fleet of wide-body aircraft [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s Q3 performance was affected by a decline in ticket prices and a slight decrease in passenger load factor, with unit RPK revenue dropping over 10% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s fleet turnover is recovering, with ASK increasing by 13% year-on-year in Q3 2024, and a 40% increase compared to Q3 2019 [2]. - The net profit forecast for 2024-2026 is maintained at 1.4 billion, 2.2 billion, and 2.9 billion yuan respectively [2]. Market Position - The company is actively optimizing its route network, focusing on high-value slots and enhancing its operational efficiency [2]. - The international strategy is seen as optimistic, with plans to operate 10 B787 aircraft by 2025 and expand routes to cities like Melbourne and Sydney [2]. Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 21.81 yuan, with the current price at 12.72 yuan [3][4].

证 券 研 究 报 告 吉祥航空（603885）2024 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 24Q3 实现归母净利 7.8 亿，超 19 年同期 18.9%，同比下降 27.2% ❖ 公司公告 2024 年三季报：1）2024Q1-3：营收 174.9 亿，同比+10.2%，较 19 年+34.5%，归母盈利 12.7 亿，同比+10.1%，较 19 年+2.8%，扣非后盈利 11.9 亿。前三季度人民币升值 1.1%，测算汇兑收益 0.3 亿。2）2024Q3：营收 65.4 亿，同比-0.2%，较 19 年+32.3%；归母盈利 7.8 亿，同比-27.2%，较 19 年+18.9%， 扣非后盈利 7.1 亿。Q3 人民币升值 1.7%，测算汇兑收益 0.7 亿。 ❖ 经营数据：1）2024Q1-3：ASK 同比+18.0%，较 19 年+38.5%，RPK 同比+21.1%， 较 19 年+36.9%，客座率 84.9%，同比+2.2pct，较 19 年-1.0pct。2）2024Q3： ASK 同比+13.4%，较 19 年+40.4%，RPK 同比+12.7%，较 19 年+38.5%，客 座率 85.7 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年11月01日 吉祥航空（603885.SH） 优于大市 三季度净利同比下滑，静待供需格局改善 吉祥航空 2024 年三季度业绩同比下滑。2024 年前三季度公司营业收入 174.92 亿元，同比增长 10.15%，实现归母净利润 12.71 亿元，同比增长 10.12%，其中单三季度公司营业收入 65.36 亿元，同比下降 0.2%，实现归母 净利润 7.82 亿元，同比下降 27.21%。 国内需求修复，客座率同比提升明显，但收益水平同比下滑显著。2024 年三 季度，公司旅客运输量、旅客周转量（RPK）、可用座公里（ASK）分别同比 增长 4.73%、12.69%以及 13.42%，且分别恢复至 2019 年同期的 128.15%、 138.46%以及 140.45%；客座率恢复至 85.74%，同比下降了 0.55 pct，相较 2019 年下降了 1.23 pct。其中，国内航线的 RPK 和 ASK 分别恢复至 2019 年 的 134.22%和 133.92%，国内客座率恢复至 88.87%，相较 2019 年提升了 0.2 pct；国际航线的 RPK 和 ASK 分别 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of 7.82 billion yuan in Q3 2024, aligning with expectations [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total operating revenue of 17.492 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.271 billion yuan, up 12.08% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s passenger transport volume for January to September 2024 reached 18.5611 million domestic passengers, 2.3334 million international passengers, and 267,000 regional passengers, representing 128.21%, 123.89%, and 89.46% of the 2019 levels, respectively [1]. Financial Summary - The company’s operating revenue for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2024 was 5.719 billion yuan, 5.236 billion yuan, and 6.536 billion yuan, respectively, with Q3 marking the highest quarterly revenue of the year due to strong demand during the summer travel season [2]. - The operating cost for the first three quarters of 2024 was 14.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.41%, with a gross margin of 17.56%, showing slight improvement compared to 2019 [2]. - The company maintained a fleet of 124 aircraft, focusing on a unified aircraft model to enhance operational efficiency [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve EPS of 0.61, 0.78, and 0.95 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 21.56X, 16.78X, and 13.81X [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a net profit of 782 million yuan for Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 27.21%, slightly below expectations. The total revenue for Q3 was 6.536 billion yuan, a minor decline of 0.2% year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2024, the net profit reached 1.271 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.1% increase compared to the same period in 2023 [1] - The international business has shown significant growth, with the overall Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) increasing by 40% compared to 2019, and Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) up by 38% compared to 2019. The domestic ASK and RPK have recovered to 134% of the 2019 levels [1] - The fleet size has expanded to 124 aircraft, marking a 36.3% increase compared to 2019 and a 7.8% increase compared to 2023, outpacing the industry average [1] - The report indicates that the company is adjusting its revenue growth forecast for domestic passenger kilometers to -6% for 2024, down from the previous estimate of -3%, due to ongoing low ticket prices and slower-than-expected international recovery [1] Financial Data Summary - For 2024, the total revenue is projected to be 21.955 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.3%. The net profit is expected to be 1.016 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 35.3% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 0.46 yuan, with a gross margin of 13.6% [2] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 10.8% for 2024, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 29 [2] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 13.11 yuan, with a one-year high of 14.90 yuan and a low of 9.92 yuan. The market capitalization is approximately 29.026 billion yuan [3] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 3.4 and a dividend yield of 1.21% [3] Basic Data - As of September 30, 2024, the company's net asset per share is 4.19 yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 80.06% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 17.49 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.27 billion RMB, also up by 10.1% year-on-year. However, in Q3 2024, the revenue slightly decreased by 0.2% to 6.54 billion RMB, and the net profit dropped by 27% to 780 million RMB [2]. - The decline in Q3 revenue was primarily due to a decrease in ticket prices, despite a 13% increase in both Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) and Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK). The international RPK saw a significant increase of 122% year-on-year, indicating strong growth in international routes [2]. - The company continues to lead in the recovery of international flights, with a strategy focused on expanding its international route network, including new routes to Australia and Vietnam [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenues of 17.49 billion RMB, a 10.2% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.27 billion RMB, up 10.1% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenues were 6.54 billion RMB, down 0.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of 780 million RMB, down 27% [2]. - The company’s unit revenue per RPK decreased by 11% in Q3 due to a high base from the previous year and a drop in international ticket prices [2]. Operational Analysis - The company’s ASK and RPK both grew by 13% in Q3 2024, with international routes showing a remarkable recovery, surpassing 2019 levels by 58% [2]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 20.7%, down 6.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower ticket prices [2]. Future Outlook - The company maintains net profit forecasts of 1.2 billion RMB, 2.3 billion RMB, and 2.8 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, while continuing to pursue a "Buy" rating [2].