[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 10 月 27 日 证券研究报告•2024 年三季报点评 买入 （维持） 当前价：20.32 元 金 徽 酒（603919）食品饮料 目标价：——元（6 个月） 高档势能强劲，全国化布局稳步推进 [Table_Summary 事件：公司发布] 2024年三季报，前三季度实现营收 23.3亿元，同比+15.3%； 归母净利润 3.3亿元，同比+22.2%。单季度来看，Q3实现营收 5.7亿元，同比 +15.8%；归母净利润 0.38 亿元，同比+108.8%。业绩符合市场预期。 300 元以上高增势能显著，省外市场扩张提速。1、分产品看，24Q3 公司 300 元以上/100-300 元/100 元以下产品营收分别为 1.6/3.1/0.8 亿元，分别同比 +42.1%/+14.9%/-24.3%。24Q3 年份系列在客户持续运营培育叠加订货会的开 展下增速亮眼，100-300元产品在 Q2柔和 H3/H6控货提价的基础上配合旺季柔 和系列订货发货推进，100元以下星级产品在三季度大众消费较淡和控制促销的 影响下以自然动销为主。2、分区域看，24Q3 公司省 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price based on projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 being 0.79, 0.94, and 1.10 yuan respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 26, 22, and 18 times based on the closing price of 20.32 yuan on October 25, 2024 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 574 million yuan for Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 38 million yuan, up 109% year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue grew by 15.3% and net profit by 22.2% [1][2]. - The company is experiencing a short-term adjustment in its domestic market while showing promising results from its transformation efforts in the external market. Domestic revenue for Q3 was 375 million yuan, up 4.4% year-on-year, while external revenue reached 171 million yuan, up 37.9% year-on-year [1][2]. - The product structure is improving, with revenue from products priced above 300 yuan increasing by 42.1% year-on-year in Q3, while products priced below 100 yuan saw a decline of 24.3% year-on-year. The overall product structure is trending towards higher quality offerings [2][5]. Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts a revenue of 3,000.57 million yuan for 2024, with a growth rate of 17.78%. The net profit is expected to reach 400.09 million yuan, reflecting a profit growth rate of 21.66% [4][12]. - The net profit margin for Q3 was 6.6%, an increase of 3 percentage points year-on-year, despite a slight decline in gross margin due to increased promotional expenses [5][12]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 4,402.32 million yuan in 2023 to 5,584.77 million yuan by 2026, indicating a healthy growth trajectory [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [2][7]. Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in Q3, with a revenue of 2.328 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.31%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 333 million yuan, up 22.17% year-on-year [1][2]. - The product structure has improved, with significant growth in products priced above 300 yuan, which saw a revenue increase of 43.80% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenue growth rates of 16%, 14%, and 12% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1][2]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the expected revenue is 2.951 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 15.83%. The net profit is projected to be 400 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 21.58% [3][5]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.79 yuan in 2024, increasing to 1.09 yuan by 2026 [3][5]. - The company's gross profit margin is expected to improve to 63.61% in 2024, with a net profit margin of 13.55% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 2.328 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.31%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 333 million yuan, up 22.17% [3]. - The growth in revenue for products priced above 300 yuan was robust, with a 43.80% increase year-on-year, while products priced between 100-300 yuan saw a steady growth of 14.96% [3]. - The company is accelerating its expansion outside its home province, with revenue from provincial and non-provincial regions for the first three quarters of 2024 showing increases of 13.89% and 15.68% respectively [3]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 64.14%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to product mix upgrades [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 574 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.77%, and a net profit of 38 million yuan, up 108.84% [3]. - The company’s revenue from different sales channels in the first three quarters of 2024 was 2.152 billion yuan from distributors, 58 million yuan from online sales, and 60 million yuan from direct sales, with online sales growing significantly by 211.20% year-on-year [3]. - The company’s net profit forecast for 2024-2026 is 400 million yuan, 480 million yuan, and 573 million yuan, with growth rates of 21.69%, 20.00%, and 19.38% respectively [4]. Cost and Profitability - The report indicates a decrease in expense ratios, which contributed to a 72% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2024 [3]. - The company’s net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 6.63%, an increase of 2.95 percentage points year-on-year, driven by reduced sales and management expense ratios [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 21.84 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 2.33 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, and a net profit of RMB 333 million, up 22.2% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue and net profit were RMB 574 million and RMB 38 million, respectively, showing increases of 15.8% and 108.8% year-on-year [3][5]. - The company's product structure is continuously upgrading, with a significant increase in the revenue contribution from products priced above RMB 300, which reached RMB 470 million, a 43.8% increase year-on-year [3]. - The company has optimized its expense ratio, leading to improved profit margins, with a net profit margin of 6.6% in Q3 2024, an increase of 3.0 percentage points year-on-year [3][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 2.33 billion, a 15.3% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 333 million, up 22.2% year-on-year. Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 574 million, with a net profit of RMB 38 million, reflecting a 15.8% and 108.8% increase year-on-year, respectively [3][5]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 61.1%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 6.6%, up 3.0 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Product and Market Development - The company has seen a robust performance in its product segments, particularly in the RMB 300 and above price range, which accounted for 20.8% of total revenue, an increase of 4.3 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company is expanding its presence in the provincial markets, with revenue from outside the province reaching RMB 550 million, a 15.7% increase year-on-year, maintaining a stable income contribution [3]. Expense Management - The company has effectively reduced its expense ratios, with the selling expense ratio and management expense ratio decreasing to 24.1% and 13.1%, respectively, in Q3 2024 [3][5]. - The total liabilities stood at RMB 1.08 billion, with a stable contract liability of RMB 480 million, indicating good cash flow management [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.328 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.31%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 333 million yuan, up 22.17% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 574 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.77%, with a net profit of 38 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 108.84% [2][3] - The company continues to optimize its product structure, with over 85% of revenue coming from mid-to-high-end products, and strong growth in the provincial and out-of-province markets [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company's gross margin decreased by 1.52 percentage points to 61.13%, attributed to promotional adjustments and increased market competition [3] - The company maintained a net profit margin of 6.6% in Q3 2024, an increase of 3.0 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company’s sales cash receipts reached 610 million yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.73% [3] Market Position and Strategy - The company’s strategy of "national layout, deepening the Northwest, and key breakthroughs" is gradually being implemented, with significant growth in the provincial and out-of-province markets [3] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3 billion, 3.6 billion, and 4.3 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 21%, and 19% [5] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 412 million yuan for 2024, 499 million yuan for 2025, and 611 million yuan for 2026, with EPS projected at 0.81, 0.98, and 1.20 yuan respectively [5][6] - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 25, 21, and 17 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2024 revenue of 2.328 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.31%, and a net profit of 333 million, up 22.17%. Q3 2024 revenue reached 574 million, growing 15.77%, while net profit was 38 million, a significant increase of 108.84% [5][4] - The report indicates an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with projected net profits of 400 million, 443 million, and 480 million respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 22%, 11%, and 8% [5][7] - The company is expected to benefit from marketing transformation and product upgrades, with growth driven by government and business group purchases, as well as banquet channels [5] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 white liquor revenue was 546 million, a 13% increase year-on-year. Revenue from white liquor priced above 300 yuan was 160 million, up 42.1%, while revenue from 100-300 yuan white liquor was 309 million, increasing by 14.9%. Revenue from white liquor below 100 yuan decreased by 24.3% to 77 million [5] - The company's net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 6.37%, an increase of 2.91 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in sales expense ratio [6] - Cash received from sales and services in Q3 2024 was 610 million, a 12.73% increase, aligning closely with the revenue growth [6] Market Position and Outlook - The company’s market share in its home province is expected to increase, with continued expansion into external markets [5] - Key catalysts for stock performance include better-than-expected economic development in Gansu, strong growth in core products, and net profit exceeding expectations [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][4][5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.328 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 333 million yuan, up 22.17% year-on-year [3][4] - The growth is driven by high-end products, with revenue from products priced above 300 yuan increasing by 43.80%, while the proportion of these products in total revenue rose by 4.27 percentage points to 20.81% [4][5] - The company is expanding its market presence both domestically and internationally, with revenue growth of 13.89% in the domestic market and 15.68% in the external market [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 574 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.77%, and a net profit of 38 million yuan, up 108.84% year-on-year [3][4] - The gross margin and net margin improved by 0.65 and 0.80 percentage points, reaching 64.14% and 14.12% respectively [5] - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 349 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.45% [5] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 2.986 billion yuan, 3.496 billion yuan, and 4.080 billion yuan, with growth rates of 17.20%, 17.10%, and 16.70% respectively [5][8] - Net profit projections for the same period are 398 million yuan, 486 million yuan, and 577 million yuan, with growth rates of 21.03%, 22.02%, and 18.71% respectively [5][8] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its marketing strategies and enhancing brand influence, with a strategic focus on national layout and deepening in the northwest region [4][5] - The company aims for high-quality growth through refined processes and management, indicating a strong potential for future performance [5]

证券代码：603919 证券简称：金徽酒 金徽酒股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2024-007 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | 召开日期： 2024 年 10 月 | | | | 召开方式：金徽酒股份有限公司（线上） | | | | 接待人职务及姓名：财务总监谢小强先生，董事会秘书任岁强先生 | | | | | | 来访人员：国盛证券、浙商证券、招商证券、中金证券、银河证券、国泰君安、广发证券、国海 | | | | 证券、华金证券、山西证券、海通证券、方正证券、天风证券、兴业证券、东吴证券、开源证券、 | | | | 西部证券、东北证券、华鑫证券、国信证券、国金证券、华泰证券、德邦证券、中泰证券、信达 | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 22.31 CNY, based on a projected P/E ratio of 23 times for 2025 [4][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.33 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 15.3%, and a net profit of 330 million CNY, up 22.2% year-over-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 570 million CNY, with a remarkable net profit growth of 108.8% year-over-year [1][2]. - The product mix continues to upgrade, with significant growth in high-end products. For the first three quarters of 2024, products priced above 300 CNY generated 470 million CNY in revenue, a 43.8% increase year-over-year [1]. - The company is deepening its market presence in the Northwest region, achieving domestic revenue of 1.72 billion CNY and external revenue of 550 million CNY in the first three quarters of 2024, with external revenue growing by 15.7% year-over-year [1]. - The net profit margin improved to 6.4% in Q3 2024, an increase of 2.9 percentage points year-over-year, despite a slight decline in gross margin to 61.1% [1]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenue for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 3.018 billion CNY, 3.555 billion CNY, and 4.153 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding net profits of 402 million CNY, 493 million CNY, and 599 million CNY [3][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024-2026 is revised to 0.79 CNY, 0.97 CNY, and 1.18 CNY respectively [2][3]. - The gross margin is expected to improve gradually from 62.4% in 2023 to 64.3% in 2026, while the net margin is projected to increase from 12.9% to 14.4% over the same period [3][10].