Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][8] Core Views - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue growth of 15.8% year-on-year, with a net profit growth of 108.8%. For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue reached 2.328 billion yuan, up 15.3% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 333 million yuan, up 22.2% year-on-year [1][4] - The company is focusing on product structure upgrades, with a notable increase in the revenue share of products priced above 100 yuan, which rose by 6.94 percentage points to 85.9% [1][4] - The company is experiencing higher growth rates in its out-of-province markets, particularly in Shaanxi and Ningxia, indicating successful market transformation efforts [1][4] Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company's total revenue was 574 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.77%, while net profit was 38 million yuan, up 108.84% year-on-year [1][4] - The gross profit margin decreased by 1.52 percentage points to 61.1% due to increased market competition and slight rises in procurement costs [1][4] - The company reported a decrease in sales expense ratio by 3.19 percentage points and a management expense ratio decrease of 1.81 percentage points in Q3 2024 [5] Regional Performance - Revenue growth in Q3 2024 was 4.4% in the province and 37.9% out of the province, with significant contributions from Shaanxi and Ningxia [1][4] - The company is implementing a "one county, one policy" strategy to enhance market penetration and optimize channel structures [1][4] Future Projections - The company has revised its revenue and net profit forecasts downward, expecting revenues of 2.963 billion yuan, 3.423 billion yuan, and 3.935 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.3%, 15.5%, and 15.0% [5][6] - The projected net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 388 million yuan, 459 million yuan, and 542 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.1%, 18.3%, and 18.0% [5][6]

华福证券 金徽酒（603919.SH） 产品结构持续优化，省外市场稳步开拓 投资要点： 事件： 金徽酒发布 2024 年三季报。前三季度公司实现营收 23.28 亿元， 同比+15.31%；实现归母净利润 3.33 亿元，同比+22.17%。其中，24Q3 公司实现营收 5.74 亿元，同比+15.77%；实现归母净利润 0.38 亿元， 同比+108.84%。公司 2024 年营业收入目标 30 亿元，净利润目标 4.00 亿元，根据前三季度情况，全年目标达成需 24Q4 实现营收/净利润 6.72/0.67 亿元，同比+27%/20%。 产品结构持续优化，百元以上产品占比持续提升 分产品看，前三季度公司 300 元以上/100-300 元/100 元以下产品 分别实现营收4.72/11.99/5.98亿元，同比分别+43.80%/+14.96%/-2.54%， 占酒类营收比例分别为 20.81%/52.83%/26.36%。其中，24Q3 公司 300 元以上/100-300 元/100 元以下产品分别实现营收 1.60/3.09/0.77 亿元， 同 比 分 别 +42.06%/+14.92%/-24. ...

证 研 究 告 基本数据 2024-10-25 当前股价（元） 20.32 总市值（亿元） 103 总股本（百万股） 507 流通股本（百万股） 507 52 周价格范围（元） 15.59-27.6 日均成交额（百万元） 78.14 公 司 研 究 2024 年 10 月 27 日 报 业绩超预期，全年目标稳步迈进 买入(维持) 事件 —金徽酒（603919.SH）公司事件点评报告 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：张倩 S1050124070037 zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn 市场表现 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 金徽酒 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《金徽酒（603919）：收入符合 预期，省内基本盘持续夯实》2024- 08-20 2、《金徽酒（603919）：业绩高质 量增长，产品结构持续优化》2024- 04-20 3、《金徽酒（603919）：业绩符合 预期，产品结构持续优化》2024- 03-16 2024 年 10 月 25 日，金徽酒发布 2024 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 2.328 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.31%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 333 million yuan, up 22.17% year-on-year [2] - The revenue for Q3 2024 was 574 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.77%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 38.07 million yuan, showing a significant increase of 108.84% year-on-year [2] - The company is focusing on product structure optimization and has seen an increase in the proportion of high-priced products, which now account for over 50% of total sales [2] - The gross profit margin decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 61.13% in Q3 2024, primarily due to increased promotional discounts and slight rises in raw material costs [2] - The net profit margin increased by 2.95 percentage points to 6.63% in Q3 2024, driven by a reduction in sales and management expense ratios [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2022 was 2.012 billion yuan, increasing to 2.548 billion yuan in 2023, and projected to reach 3.017 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.49%, 26.64%, and 18.43% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 280.24 million yuan in 2022, increasing to 328.86 million yuan in 2023, and expected to be 401.81 million yuan in 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of (13.73)%, 17.35%, and 22.18% respectively [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.79 yuan per share in 2024, with a P/E ratio of 25.65 based on the current price [1] Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its marketing transformation and solidifying its pricing system, particularly in the domestic market, while also expanding its presence in the provincial markets [2] - The company added 13 new distributors in the provincial markets in Q3 2024, indicating a positive trend in market expansion [2] Profitability Metrics - The sales expense ratio and management expense ratio decreased to 24.1% and 16% respectively in Q3 2024, reflecting improved efficiency in marketing expenditure and management [2] - The company expects to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 401.81 million yuan, 486.88 million yuan, and 598.67 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22%, 21%, and 23% [2]

公 司 报 告 公 司 季 报 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 金徽酒(603919.SH) 省外市场发力，产品结构升级 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:20.32元 | --- | --- | |------------------------|----------------------------------| | 行业 | 食品饮料 | | 公司网址 | www.jinhuijiu.com | | 大股东 / 持股 | 甘肃亚特投资集团有限公司 /21.57% | | 实际控制人 | 李明 | | 总股本 ( 百万股 ) | 507 | | 流通 A 股 ( 百万股 ) | 507 | | 流通 B/H 股 ( 百万股 ) | | | 总市值 ( 亿元 ) | 103 | | 流通 A 股市值 ( 亿元 ) | 103 | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 6.45 | | 资产负债率 (%) | 24.4 | | 行情走势图 | | | | | 相关研究报告 【平安证券】金徽酒（603919.SH）*半年报点评*收 入稳定增长，费用投放有序*推荐20240819 【平安证券】金徽酒（603919.SH）*季报 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing structural upgrades and effective transformation, leading to significant performance improvements [1] - The Q3 2024 results exceeded market expectations, with total revenue of 574 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.77% [1] - The company is focusing on upgrading its product structure, with notable performance in the mid-to-high-end price segments [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 total revenue reached 574 million yuan, up 15.77% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 35 million yuan, an increase of 71.85% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue was 2.328 billion yuan, a 15.31% increase year-on-year, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 337 million yuan, up 23.05% [1] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2024 was 61.13%, down 1.52 percentage points year-on-year, but the net profit margin improved by 6.37% due to optimized cost efficiency [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from products priced below 100 yuan increased by 14.9%, while products priced above 300 yuan saw a 42.1% increase, indicating a shift towards higher-end products [1] - Revenue from provincial and external markets grew by 4.4% and 37.9% respectively, with the share of external revenue increasing by 5.7 percentage points to 31.3% [1] Profitability and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 3.004 billion yuan, 3.487 billion yuan, and 4.038 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.9%, 16.0%, and 15.8% [3][4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 402 million yuan, 474 million yuan, and 560 million yuan for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of 22.3%, 17.8%, and 18.2% [3][4] Market Strategy - The company is enhancing its market presence in provinces outside its home region, focusing on areas like Shaanxi, Ningxia, Qinghai, Xinjiang, and East China, which is expected to contribute to stable overall growth [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 2.912 billion, 3.233 billion, and 3.556 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.31%, 11.02%, and 10.00% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 398 million, 447 million, and 498 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 21.03%, 12.32%, and 11.37% respectively. The three-year CAGR is estimated at 14.82%, with corresponding PE valuations of 26, 23, and 21X for 2024-2026 [2][6] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.328 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.31%, and a net profit of 333 million yuan, up 22.17% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue reached 574 million yuan, growing by 15.77% year-on-year, while net profit surged by 108.84% to 38 million yuan [6][7] - The company’s gross margin in Q3 2024 was 61.13%, a decrease of 1.52 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased market competition. However, the net profit margin improved to 6.63%, an increase of 2.95 percentage points year-on-year, due to a decline in expense ratios [6][7] Product and Market Dynamics - The company’s high-end products continued to show strong growth, with Q3 2024 revenue from products priced above 300 yuan increasing by 42.06% year-on-year. The revenue from provincial markets is accelerating, with Q3 2024 revenue from provincial and non-provincial markets at 375 million and 171 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 4.40% and 37.91% [6][7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its structural upgrade trend, with steady performance in its base market and an anticipated gradual increase in market share within the province [2][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.33 billion RMB for Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, and a net profit of 330 million RMB, up 22.2% year-on-year. The Q3 revenue was 570 million RMB, with a 15.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 40 million RMB, showing a significant increase of 109% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [2][4]. - The company has adjusted its marketing strategy, focusing on large clients and user engagement, which has led to a notable recovery in revenue growth from external markets, with a 38% increase year-on-year, while internal market growth was more stable at 4% [3][4]. - The profit margin for Q3 2024 increased by 3.0 percentage points to 6.6%, despite a slight decrease in gross margin by 1.5 percentage points, indicating improved operational efficiency [3][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.33 billion RMB, with a net profit of 330 million RMB, reflecting a strong performance compared to the previous year [2]. - The Q3 revenue breakdown shows products priced below 100 RMB saw a decline of 24%, while products priced between 100-300 RMB and above 300 RMB increased by 15% and 42% respectively [3]. Profitability Analysis - The net profit margin improved to 6.6% in Q3 2024, driven by a reduction in sales expenses and management costs, which indicates a focus on cost control and operational efficiency [3][4]. - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 3.01 billion RMB, 3.45 billion RMB, and 3.93 billion RMB respectively, with expected growth rates of 18%, 15%, and 14% [4][7]. Financial Forecast - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 is 400 million RMB, 466 million RMB, and 550 million RMB, with growth rates of 22%, 16%, and 18% respectively [4][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.79 RMB, 0.92 RMB, and 1.09 RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 26, 22, and 19 [4][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][3] Core Views - The company maintains a revenue growth rate advantage, with a notable performance in products priced above 300 yuan, and a rapid profit growth due to a low base [2][3] - The target price is set at 28.20 yuan, unchanged from the previous forecast [2][3] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.328 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 333 million yuan, up 22.17% year-on-year [3] - In Q3 2024 alone, revenue reached 574 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.77%, while net profit surged by 108.84% to 38 million yuan [3] - The gross margin improved by 1.5 percentage points to 61.1%, and the sales expense ratio decreased by 3.2 percentage points [3] Product Performance - Products priced above 300 yuan saw revenue of 160 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.06%, while products priced between 100-300 yuan grew by 14.92% [3] - The performance of the 100 yuan and below category declined by 24.33% due to promotional controls and seasonal effects [3] Regional Performance - Domestic revenue grew by 4.4% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province increased significantly by 37.9% [3] - The company is focusing on markets like Shaanxi and Ningxia, with efforts to strengthen product focus and consumer cultivation [3]

金徽酒（603919.SH）2024 年三季报点评 3 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 结构升级势能强劲，省内外扩张有序推进 2024 年 10 月 26 日 ➢ 事件：2024 年 10 月 25 日，公司发布 24 年三季报，公司 23Q1-Q3 实现 营收 23.3 亿元，同增 15.3%；实现归母净利润 3.3 亿元，同增 22.2%；经营活 动产生的现金流量净额 3.5 亿元，同增 42.4%；期末合同负债 4.8 亿元，同增 10.3%。单季度看，23Q3 实现营收 5.7 亿元，同增 15.8%；实现归母净利润 0.4 亿元，同增 108.8%。 ➢ 产品结构持续优化升级，省内+西北区域扩张提速。分产品看，24Q1-Q3 公 司 300 元以上/100-300 元/100 元以下产品分别实现营收 4.7/12.0/6.0 亿元， 同比+43.8%/+15.0%/-2.5%，占比 16.5%/52.5%/30.9%，省内升学宴、婚宴 等宴席场景较优，双节促销活动拉动年份、柔和等高价位产品动销。公司持续优 化产品结构，将金徽年份系列打造成西北高端白酒代表，带动柔和、正能量系列 等 ...