Group 1: Metal Sector - Zijin Mining's net profit forecast for 2025 is 475 million CNY, with a PE ratio of 15.46[12] - Luoyang Molybdenum's net profit forecast for 2025 is 168.65 million CNY, with a PE ratio of 17.35[12] - The copper production of Zijin Mining is expected to increase by 7% to 115,000 tons in 2025[20] Group 2: Chemical Sector - Wanhua Chemical's net profit forecast for 2025 is 141.75 million CNY, with a PE ratio of 0.00[12] - Longbai Group's net profit forecast for 2025 is 23.01 million CNY, with a PE ratio of 19.75[12] - The MDI market is expected to improve as supply and demand conditions stabilize[48] Group 3: Transportation Sector - China Merchants Highway's net profit forecast for 2025 is 55.01 million CNY, with a PE ratio of 12.10[12] - Haitong Development's net profit forecast for 2025 is 4.43 million CNY, with a PE ratio of 18.87[12] Group 4: Construction Sector - Sichuan Road and Bridge's net profit forecast for 2025 is 82.86 million CNY, with a PE ratio of 8.79[12] - Honglu Steel Structure's net profit forecast for 2025 is 7.96 million CNY, with a PE ratio of 15.35[12]

格隆汇9月28日｜据Choice数据，剔除新股和次新股，周五A股市场共有52家上市公司盘中股价创出历 史新高。这52家公司分别是：紫金矿业、阳光电源、洛阳钼业、赛力斯、华虹公司、ST华通、徐工机 械、浪潮信息、华工科技、晶合集成、杰瑞股份、华海清科、兴业银锡、科博达、科华数据、安集科 技、中科飞测、剑桥科技、纽威股份、电气风电、宁波华翔、北方铜业、华建集团、聚辰股份、应流股 份、精达股份、聚和材料、汇成股份、美湖股份、隆盛科技、菲林格尔、新坐标、*ST宇顺、统联精 密、赛微微电、亚翔集成、优优绿能、捷邦科技、*ST亚振、合锻智能、易德龙、和远气体、锦华新 材、金马游乐、智洋创新、唯特偶、品茗科技、佰奥智能、埃科光电、征和工业、太龙股份、通源环 境。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including 山金国际, 赤峰黄金, 洛阳钼业, 中国宏桥, and 中钨高新 [3]. Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are trading around interest rate cuts, with silver showing potential for a short squeeze due to low inventory levels and continued inflows into ETFs [1][33]. - Industrial metals like copper are supported by production cuts at the Grasberg mine and a reduction in global copper supply, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate as the market awaits demand recovery [1][33]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are experiencing active trading ahead of the holiday, with expectations of strong supply growth in the fourth quarter [1][33]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver continue to trade based on interest rate expectations, with silver's strong performance linked to low inventory levels and ETF inflows [1][33]. - The U.S. core PCE price index for August recorded a year-on-year rate of 2.9%, aligning with expectations and reducing concerns about interest rate cuts [1][33]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by production cuts at the Grasberg mine, with a projected reduction of over 500,000 tons in global copper supply over the next 12 to 15 months [1][33]. - Aluminum supply is increasing as production capacity is restored, but prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [1][33]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are stable, with active trading as companies prepare for the holiday season, and supply expectations remain strong for the fourth quarter [1][33]. - The report notes a slight increase in lithium carbonate production, with inventory levels decreasing [1][33]. Key Companies to Watch - The report highlights several companies to monitor, including 兴业银锡, 盛达资源, 万国黄金集团, 中金黄金, 紫金矿业, 山东黄金, 赤峰黄金, 银泰黄金, 招金矿业, 洛阳钼业, 明泰铝业, and others [1][3].

Core Viewpoint - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has extended its cobalt export ban until October 15, leading to a significant increase in cobalt prices, which have risen nearly 40% this year [1][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The DRC's cobalt production accounts for 76% of global supply, and the extension of the export ban is expected to reduce cobalt supply by approximately 141,600 tons during the ban period, nearly half of the global cobalt production in 2024 [3][5]. - Cobalt prices have increased from $14 per pound at the beginning of the year to $19.5 per pound as of September 24, reflecting a significant tightening of supply [4]. Industry Impact - Companies in the cobalt supply chain, such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, and Greeenmei, have seen their stock prices rise significantly, with Luoyang Molybdenum up 10.87%, Huayou Cobalt up 7.85%, and Greeenmei up 4.41% in the week leading up to September 25 [3][8]. - Analysts predict that the rising cobalt prices will lead to improved earnings for related companies, with Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price increasing over 115% this year and Huayou Cobalt's stock price increasing over 92% [8]. Future Outlook - The export quota policy is expected to create a global cobalt supply gap of over 300,000 tons in the next three years, with significant shortages anticipated in domestic cobalt supply by February next year [6][7]. - The demand for cobalt is expected to rise due to the increasing need for electric vehicles and other technologies, suggesting that cobalt prices may continue to rise [5][7]. Strategic Positioning - Greeenmei has positioned itself well in the market, with its cobalt recycling capabilities exceeding 350% of China's cobalt mining output, and its production in Indonesia showing significant growth [9]. - Analysts suggest that companies with strong resource reserves and production capabilities, particularly in Indonesia, will be better positioned to benefit from the evolving market dynamics [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [4][6][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that industrial metal prices are expected to continue rising due to supply disruptions and seasonal demand in China during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for energy metals like lithium and cobalt, driven by strong demand from the energy storage and electric vehicle sectors [3]. - Precious metals are anticipated to reach new highs due to increased safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][71]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by supply disruptions from the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, which has been shut down due to a mining accident, leading to a significant reduction in expected output [2][39]. - Aluminum demand is recovering as downstream processing companies increase their operating rates, with a notable rise in pre-holiday stockpiling [2][22]. - Zinc prices are fluctuating due to mixed signals from macroeconomic indicators and supply-demand dynamics, with a slight decrease in domestic consumption observed [45][46]. Energy Metals - The report notes that cobalt supply is tightening due to regulatory changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has implemented a quota system, leading to price increases [3]. - Lithium demand remains robust, particularly in the context of energy storage and electric vehicles, with expectations of a balanced supply-demand situation [3]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have surged, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions, with gold prices reaching historical highs [4][71]. - The report suggests that central bank purchases of gold and a weakening dollar will continue to support gold prices in the medium to long term [4]. Key Companies and Their Forecasts - Zijin Mining: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.21 CNY, with a PE ratio of 23, rated as "Buy" [4]. - Luoyang Molybdenum: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.63 CNY, with a PE ratio of 22, rated as "Buy" [4]. - Huayou Cobalt: EPS forecast for 2024A is 2.50 CNY, with a PE ratio of 23, rated as "Buy" [4].

Group 1: Copper Price Surge - The global copper price has significantly increased due to the suspension of production at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine, with LME copper closing at $10,320 per ton on September 24, marking a 3.46% rise [4][5] - On September 25, the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze market reached 82,500 yuan per ton, up 3.06% from the previous day, an increase of 2,450 yuan [4][5] - The Grasberg mine, one of the largest copper mines globally, has a copper reserve of 13.99 million tons and has lowered its third-quarter sales guidance for copper and gold by 4% and 6%, respectively [5][6] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts suggest that the impact of the Grasberg incident is primarily psychological for the market, with minimal direct effects on domestic copper concentrate supply [3][6] - The incident is expected to lead to a slight reduction in global metal supply, with estimates of a decrease of about 5,000 tons in 2025 and 22,000 tons in 2026, which is a small fraction of the expected consumption [6][7] - Despite the recent surge, some market participants believe that copper prices may correct downward as demand weakens after the initial excitement fades [7] Group 3: Company Performance and Outlook - Domestic copper companies, such as Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining, have shown strong stock performance, with Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price rising by 9.90% to 13.87 yuan [7][8] - Luoyang Molybdenum is projected to produce 650,200 tons of copper in 2024, a 55% increase year-on-year, positioning it among the top copper producers globally [8][9] - The company anticipates a stable market as U.S. import tariffs on copper products take effect, which may alleviate supply tensions outside the U.S. [9]

Group 1 - The core transaction on September 26 involved a block trade of 300,000 shares of Luoyang Molybdenum Co., with a transaction value of 4.14 million yuan and a price of 13.80 yuan per share [2][3] - The buyer was Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. headquarters, while the seller was Huatai Securities Co., Ltd. Shanghai Wuding Road Securities Business Department [2][3] - Over the past three months, Luoyang Molybdenum has recorded a total of three block trades, amounting to 157 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The closing price of Luoyang Molybdenum on the day of the transaction was 13.80 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.50% [2] - The stock had a turnover rate of 2.26% and a total trading volume of 5.504 billion yuan for the day, with a net inflow of main funds amounting to 92.13 million yuan [2] - In the last five days, the stock has increased by 10.31%, with a total net inflow of funds reaching 1.078 billion yuan [2] Group 3 - The latest margin financing balance for Luoyang Molybdenum is 2.519 billion yuan, which has decreased by 86.6271 million yuan over the past five days, representing a decline of 3.32% [3] - Luoyang Molybdenum was established on December 22, 1999, with a registered capital of 4.2788620352 billion yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [66]. Core Views - Recent disruptions in copper mining, particularly the mudslide incident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine, have raised concerns about copper supply, potentially leading to price increases as demand peaks in the industrial metals sector [5][57]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut is expected to support metal prices, particularly as the domestic industrial metal demand season approaches [5][59]. - The report highlights significant price movements in various metal markets, with copper prices reaching $10,275 per ton and gold prices increasing to $3,780.50 per ounce as of September 25, 2025 [24][36]. Market Review - As of September 25, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has seen a 1.28% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.28 percentage points, ranking 9th among 31 sectors [12]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals industry has risen by 56.32%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index, which has increased by 39.58% [12]. - The energy metals sector has shown a notable increase of 4.68% in the last two weeks, while the small metals sector has decreased by 5.42% [19][18]. Price Analysis - As of September 25, 2025, the following prices were recorded: LME copper at $10,275/ton, LME aluminum at $2,664/ton, LME lead at $2,009/ton, LME zinc at $2,922.50/ton, LME nickel at $15,240/ton, and LME tin at $34,390/ton [24][58]. - Gold prices have increased by $264.4 since the beginning of September, with COMEX silver also showing a rise of $4.72 [36][59]. - The report notes a decline in rare earth prices, with the rare earth price index at 217.37, down 9.56 from the beginning of September [42][60]. Company Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Xingye Silver Tin (000426) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) in the industrial metals sector [5][59]. - In the gold sector, Zijin Mining (601899) is recommended due to its potential for growth amid rising gold prices [59]. - For small metals, companies like Xiamen Tungsten (600549), China Rare Earth (000831), and Jieli Permanent Magnet (300748) are highlighted for their market positions [61].

Group 1 - The industrial metal sector increased by 0.43% on September 26, with Jingyi Co., Ltd. leading the gains at 10% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3828.11, down 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13209.0, down 1.76% [1] - Key stocks in the industrial metal sector showed significant price movements, with Jingyi Co., Ltd. closing at 14.85 and a trading volume of 285,000 shares, resulting in a transaction value of 409 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The industrial metal sector experienced a net outflow of 293 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 60.1 million yuan [2] - The sector attracted a net inflow of 354 million yuan from speculative funds [2] - Specific stocks like Luoyang Aluminum and Baiyin Nonferrous Metals had notable net inflows from institutional investors, while others like Lida New Materials faced significant outflows from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, the A-share market has outperformed globally, with the technology sector led by AI and robotics being the strongest market theme. However, the non-ferrous metals sector has also seen a significant rise, with an index increase of over 60%, indicating a potential new upward cycle for non-ferrous metals [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a collective rebound after a three-year adjustment period, with some companies' stock prices doubling and over 50 companies rising more than 60% [1][2]. - The price of gold has surged from over $2,600 to $3,800, a rise of over 40%, driven by central banks in emerging markets increasing their gold reserves amid concerns over the dollar [3][4]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - The price of antimony has skyrocketed fivefold in Europe and doubled domestically, with China being the largest supplier, accounting for 80% of global supply [5]. - Industrial metals like aluminum, copper, and zinc have also seen price increases, with cobalt prices rising from 160,000 yuan/ton to 290,000 yuan/ton due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo [5]. Group 3: Valuation Recovery - Prior to the market rally, the price-to-book (PB) ratio for the non-ferrous metals sector was just over 2, at a near ten-year low, setting the stage for valuation recovery as earnings improved [6]. Group 4: Copper Market Insights - Copper prices have risen by 13% since 2025, nearing historical highs, with supply growth being limited due to cautious capital expenditures from major copper companies [8][9]. - China's investment in the power grid has exceeded 330 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, a 12.5% increase year-on-year, driving copper demand [9][10]. Group 5: Aluminum Industry Outlook - The aluminum industry has benefited from supply-side reforms, with production nearing regulatory limits and demand shifting towards electronics and renewable energy sectors [15][16]. - Major Chinese aluminum companies have reported significant profit increases, with China Hongqiao, China Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum showing year-on-year profit growth of 95%, 85%, 102%, and 12% respectively [16][17]. Group 6: Future Prospects - The upward price cycle for non-ferrous metals, including copper and aluminum, is likely to continue, with the potential for sustained performance from leading companies [18].