Core Insights - The cobalt metal concept has seen a rise of 3.02%, ranking sixth among concept sectors, with 34 stocks increasing in value, including notable gains from companies like Ganfeng Lithium, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Pengxin Resources [1][2] Market Performance - The top-performing concept sectors today include: - Zinc: +3.68% - Nickel: +3.65% - Lead: +3.61% - Cobalt: +3.02% [2] - The cobalt sector attracted a net inflow of 1.576 billion yuan, with 22 stocks receiving net inflows, and 9 stocks exceeding 50 million yuan in net inflow [2] Key Stocks - Ganfeng Lithium led the net inflow with 555.1 million yuan, followed by Zijin Mining and Huayou Cobalt with net inflows of 428.9 million yuan and 416.8 million yuan respectively [2][3] - Notable stock performances include: - Ganfeng Lithium: +7.83% - Zijin Mining: +5.00% - Huayou Cobalt: +5.46% - Luoyang Molybdenum: +6.81% [3][4] Fund Flow Ratios - The highest net inflow ratios were observed in: - China Metallurgical Group: 10.04% - China Power Construction: 9.29% - Tibet Mining: 8.89% [3]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. has shown a significant increase in stock price, reflecting positive market sentiment and investor interest in the company’s operations in rare metals [1] Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. was established on December 22, 1999, and listed on October 9, 2012. The company is primarily engaged in the mining, selection, deep processing, trading, and research of rare metals such as molybdenum, tungsten, and gold [1] - The company’s main business revenue composition includes: refined metal product trading (48.56%), concentrate product trading (38.31%), copper (27.14%), cobalt (6.04%), molybdenum (3.12%), phosphorus (2.23%), niobium (1.88%), tungsten (1.17%), and others (0.11%) [1] Fund Holdings - According to data, one fund under Jianxin Fund has a significant holding in Luoyang Molybdenum. Jianxin Health and Livelihood Mixed A (000547) held 1,084,100 shares in the second quarter, accounting for 2.2% of the fund's net value, making it the eighth largest holding [2] - The fund has achieved a year-to-date return of 28.9% and a one-year return of 37.76%, ranking 3,524 out of 8,080 in its category [2] Fund Manager Performance - The fund manager of Jianxin Health and Livelihood Mixed A is Ma Muqing, who has been in the position for 3 years and 277 days. The total asset size of the fund is 1.342 billion yuan, with the best return during the tenure being 57.31% and the worst being -1.24% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal industry index in China has shown strong performance, with significant increases in various stocks, driven by a government plan aimed at stabilizing growth in the sector and rising gold prices reaching historical highs [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of September 29, 2025, the non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) rose by 3.10%, with notable stock increases including Vanadium Titanium Co. (000629) up 10.00%, Xingye Silver Tin (000426) up 9.11%, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630) up 7.77% [1]. - The non-ferrous ETF fund (159880) also increased by 3.07%, with the latest price reported at 1.61 yuan [1]. Group 2: Government Initiatives - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with eight other departments, issued the "Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" to support the sector [1]. Group 3: Commodity Insights - East Wu Securities forecasts that copper prices will remain strong due to anticipated supply contractions and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate amid weak demand [1]. - The gold market is influenced by a shift in the Federal Reserve's stance during the global central bank conference in August, with expectations of continued inflation and declining nominal interest rates, suggesting a broad potential for precious metals [1]. Group 4: ETF Composition - The non-ferrous metal industry index includes 50 prominent securities based on size and liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the sector [2]. - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 50.35% of the total, including Zijin Mining (601899) and Northern Rare Earth (600111) [2].

Core Viewpoint - Copper stocks continue to rise, driven by supply constraints and recovering demand, leading to upward revisions in price forecasts for copper [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the report, China Nonferrous Mining (01258) increased by 4.78% to HKD 14.02, Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) rose by 3.94% to HKD 14.52, Zijin Mining (601899) gained 3.82% to HKD 31.54, and Jiangxi Copper (600362) saw a 2.82% increase to HKD 27.7 [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Bank of America reports operational issues at the world's three major copper mines, predicting actual production will fall short of previous expectations over the next two years [1] - The shutdown of the Grasberg mine alone could lead to a supply gap of 270,000 tons next year, while European demand is stabilizing and Chinese demand is steady [1] Group 3: Price Forecasts - The bank has raised its copper price forecasts for next year and 2027 to USD 11,313 per ton and USD 13,500 per ton, respectively, due to supply pressures [1] Group 4: Company Ratings and Target Prices - Zijin Mining's target price has been increased from HKD 31 to HKD 37, and Luoyang Molybdenum's target price has been raised from HKD 14 to HKD 16.5, both maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Jiangxi Copper's rating has been upgraded from "Underperform" to "Buy," with the target price soaring from HKD 17 to HKD 31, benefiting from rising prices of copper concentrate, gold, and silver [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities reports that operational issues at the world's three major copper mines will lead to lower actual production in the next two years, prompting an upward revision of copper price forecasts for 2024 and 2027 to $11,313 and $13,500 per ton respectively [1] Group 1: Copper Supply and Demand - The closure of the Grasberg mine is expected to create a supply gap of 270,000 tons next year [1] - European demand is showing signs of recovery, while Chinese demand is stabilizing, putting pressure on copper supply [1] Group 2: Company Target Price Adjustments - Zijin Mining's target price has been raised from HKD 31 to HKD 37, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum's target price has been increased from HKD 14 to HKD 16.5, also with a "Buy" rating [1] - Jiangxi Copper's rating has been upgraded from "Underperform" to "Buy," with the target price soaring from HKD 17 to HKD 31, benefiting from rising prices of copper concentrate, gold, and silver [1]

消息面上，9月28日，工业和信息化部等八部门印发《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026 年）》，其中提到，2025—2026年，有色金属行业增加值年均增长5%左右，十种有色金属产量年均增 长1.5%左右，铜、铝、锂等国内资源开发取得积极进展。国海证券认为，短期来看，美联储如期降 息，且仍有进一步降息预期；有色金属行业稳增长工作方案出台，提振行业情绪。下游铝加工环节开工 率仍在持续回升中，库存拐点基本出现，关注"金九银十"旺季机会。民生证券指出，美联储降息落地， 商品供给干扰频发，伴随美国财政货币双宽松，叠加国内"金九银十"旺季需求，工业金属价格有望继续 上行。 有色股早盘活跃，截至发稿，赣锋锂业（002460）(01772)涨6.01%，报39.5港元；中铝国际（601068） (02068)涨4.41%，报2.37港元；招金矿业(01818)涨4.02%，报30.52港元；洛阳钼业（603993）(03993)涨 3.44%，报14.45港元；中国铝业（601600）(02600)涨3.97%，报7.85港元；江西铜业（600362）股份 (00358)涨2.45%，报27.6港元。 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly the increase in the price of copper and aluminum, driven by supply disruptions and demand recovery [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal ETF showed a stable performance with a 1.5% increase in price and a transaction volume of 1.4755 million yuan, bringing the fund's total size to 303 million yuan [1] - Key stocks such as Baiyin Nonferrous, Guiyan Platinum, and Xingye Silver Tin saw significant gains of 3.6%, 3.23%, and 2.92% respectively, while Shenghe Resources experienced a decline of 1.41% [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The Grasberg copper mine, the second largest globally, has halted production due to an accident, leading Freeport to project a significant decrease in copper sales by Q4 2025 and a potential 35% drop in production in 2026, exacerbating supply tightness [1] - The aluminum sector is witnessing a positive trend with successful technological advancements in aluminum alloy materials for automotive applications, recognized by high-end clients like BMW and Mercedes, which is expected to drive industry transformation [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - Tianfeng Securities indicates a bullish sentiment in the copper market, with prices expected to continue rising due to supply-demand dynamics and a favorable outlook for aluminum prices supported by inventory reductions and seasonal demand [1][2] - The cobalt sector is facing increased prices due to export bans and quota policies from the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to a tightening of raw material supply [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [7] Core Insights - The second round of interest rate cuts has begun, similar to the period from April to June 2020, highlighting the importance of the silver-gold ratio recovery and the elasticity of silver [2][4] - Inflation data met expectations while consumer confidence hit a new low, increasing the probability of interest rate cuts [4] - In the base metals sector, while the interest rate cut benefits are being realized, concerns about natural demand have led to a decline in industrial metals, except for copper, which saw price increases due to supply disruptions [4][5] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the recovery of the silver-gold ratio and the potential for silver to gain elasticity as inflation expectations rise [4] - It suggests that during the initial phase of the interest rate cut cycle, gold prices are expected to continue a volatile upward trend, with a 90% probability of a rate cut in October and a 65% probability in December [4] - Recommendations include increasing allocations to gold stocks in anticipation of a quarterly resonance in price, valuation, and style [4][5] Industrial Metals - The report notes that copper prices have surged due to supply shocks, particularly from the Grasberg copper mine accident, which is expected to impact sales by nearly 200,000 tons by Q4 2025 and reduce production by 270,000 tons in 2026 [4][5] - Overall, industrial metals have seen a decline, but copper has risen by 3.2% on the SHFE and 2.1% on the LME due to supply constraints [4][22] Strategic Metals - The report highlights the long-term bullish outlook for cobalt prices due to the implementation of an export quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which will lead to a global cobalt market shortage from 2025 to 2027 [5] - It also discusses the strategic importance of rare earths and tungsten, with a focus on the increasing demand and price support for rare earth materials [5] Market Performance - The report indicates that the metal materials and mining sector has outperformed the broader market, with a 2.60% increase compared to a 0.21% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [13][16] - Specific stocks in the copper and aluminum sectors are highlighted for their growth potential, with recommendations for companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining [5][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the metals and new materials industry, highlighting strong performance in various segments [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that supply disruptions continue to drive metal prices higher, with significant increases observed in copper and precious metals [3][10]. - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals index has outperformed the broader market, with a year-to-date increase of 56.38%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 40.74 percentage points [4][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued price increases in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, due to central bank purchasing trends and macroeconomic factors [3][19]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.06%, and the CSI 300 Index gained 1.07% [4]. - The non-ferrous metals index saw a weekly increase of 3.52%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 2.46 percentage points [6][8]. - Precious metals experienced a notable rise, with gold prices increasing by 1.89% and silver by 6.92% [3][15]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals showed varied price movements, with copper prices up by 8.57% and aluminum down by 1.79% [3][10]. - Year-to-date performance for various metals includes copper up 72.50%, precious metals up 67.52%, and energy metals up 56.65% [10][15]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Copper supply is expected to face disruptions due to incidents affecting major mines, with a projected 35% reduction in output from Freeport's Grasberg mine in 2026 [3][31]. - The report notes a decrease in domestic copper inventories, with social inventory at 140,000 tons, down by 9,000 tons [3][31]. - The aluminum sector is seeing increased downstream processing activity, with operating rates rising to 63% [3][31]. Key Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable supply-demand dynamics in the new energy manufacturing sector, recommending firms such as Huafeng Aluminum and Yatai Technology [3][10]. - For precious metals, companies like Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the ongoing market trends [3][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics for key companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating a range of price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and price-to-book (PB) ratios for various firms [17][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the metals and new materials industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights ongoing supply disruptions leading to continuous increases in metal prices, particularly in copper and precious metals [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the non-ferrous metals index, which has outperformed the broader market indices significantly [4][10]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.06%. The non-ferrous metals index surged by 3.52%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.46 percentage points [3][4]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has increased by 56.38%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 40.74 percentage points [8]. Price Changes - Industrial and precious metals saw varied price changes, with copper increasing by 8.57% and gold prices rising by 1.89% [3][10]. - The report notes significant price increases in energy materials, particularly in cobalt, which rose by 14.23% [3][10]. Key Metal Insights - **Copper**: The report indicates a reduction in domestic social inventory by 0.9 million tons, with a current total of 140,000 tons. Supply disruptions from Freeport's Grasberg mine are expected to reduce global copper supply by approximately 2.2% [3][35]. - **Aluminum**: The report notes an increase in downstream processing enterprise operating rates, with a current operating rate of 63.00%. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has decreased by 3.30 million tons [3][47]. - **Steel**: The report highlights an increase in steel production and a decrease in steel inventory, with a focus on monitoring supply adjustments and export demand [3][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable supply-demand dynamics in the new energy manufacturing sector, recommending stocks such as Huafeng Aluminum and Asia-Pacific Technology [3][10]. - For precious metals, the report recommends companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold, citing their potential for valuation recovery [3][10]. Company Valuations - The report provides detailed valuations for key companies in the metals sector, indicating a range of price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and price-to-book (PB) ratios for various firms [20][21].