中联重科(000157)2024年年报点评：新兴潜力业务 稳健发展 海外市场持续突破 由于国内地产等需求持续拖累，混凝土机械与起重机械需求略弱于预期，我们随之下调公司25-26 年归母净利润预测12.0%/13.6%至50.0/62.2 亿元，引入27 年归母净利润73.5 亿元，对应25-27 年EPS 分 别为0.58/0.72/0.85 元。 公司新兴业务及海外出口潜力巨大，维持公司A 股和H 股"买入"评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧风险、下游景气度下行风险、海外出口不及预期风险 新兴业务稳健发展，传统优势业务市场地位保持稳固2024 年公司工程机械业务营收403.6 亿元，同 比下降9.3%。传统优势业务方面，公司混凝土机械营收80.1 亿元，同比下降6.8%；起重机械营收147.9 亿元，同比下降23.4%。受下游地产行业影响，公司传统业务短期承压，但仍维持了行业领先的地位。 公司200 吨级以上全地面起重机销量位居行业第一；25、35、55 吨级汽车起重机市场份额位列行业第 一；建筑起重机械销售规模稳居全球第一；混凝土机械长臂架泵车、车载泵、搅拌站市场份额持续稳居 行业第一；搅拌车市场份额保持行业 ...

新兴潜力业务稳健发展，海外市场持续突破 ——中联重科（000157.SZ、1157.HK）2024 年年报点评 要点 剔除股份支付费影响后净利润稳健增长，盈利能力持续回升 2025 年 3 月 27 日 公司研究 中联重科 2024 年全年实现营业收入 454.8 亿元，同比下降 3.4%；归母净 利润 35.2 亿元，同比上升 0.4%；剔除股份支付费影响后净利润同比增长 18.4%； 每股收益 0.41 元。毛利率 28.2%，同比上升 1.0 个百分点；净利率 8.8%，同比 上升 0.8 个百分点。 新兴业务稳健发展，传统优势业务市场地位保持稳固 2024 年公司工程机械业务营收 403.6 亿元，同比下降 9.3%。传统优势业务 方面，公司混凝土机械营收 80.1 亿元，同比下降 6.8%；起重机械营收 147.9 亿元，同比下降 23.4%。受下游地产行业影响，公司传统业务短期承压，但仍 维持了行业领先的地位。公司 200 吨级以上全地面起重机销量位居行业第一； 25、35、55 吨级汽车起重机市场份额位列行业第一；建筑起重机械销售规模稳 居全球第一；混凝土机械长臂架泵车、车载泵、搅拌站市场份额持 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown a continuous increase in overseas revenue contribution, with emerging business segments developing strongly. In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 45.478 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.39%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.520 billion yuan, an increase of 0.41% [4][5] - The overseas market accounted for 51% of total revenue in 2024, with a gross margin of 32.05%, significantly higher than the domestic average of 24.06%. The company has established 11 overseas production bases in 8 countries and regions [4][5] - The company is focusing on optimizing its industrial structure, integrating traditional and emerging industries to foster strong growth momentum [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 28.17%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 8.81%, an increase of 0.80 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company forecasts operating revenues of 53.111 billion yuan, 62.327 billion yuan, and 72.886 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 5.041 billion yuan, 6.305 billion yuan, and 7.618 billion yuan for the same years [6][9] - The diluted EPS is expected to be 0.58 yuan, 0.73 yuan, and 0.88 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13, 11, and 9 times [6][9]

海外收入持续高增，地区结构优化。随着欧美、澳新、拉美、非洲、印度等新兴区域的市场突破， 海外市场布局更加多元化，区域销售结构不断优化，各区域市场协同发展，呈现"多点开花"接续高速增 长态势，2024 年海外销售收入233.8 亿元，同比+30.58%，收入占比达51.4%，同比+13.37pct。 投资建议：考虑到公司各项业务发展势头较好，我们预计公司2025-2027归母净利润分别为 50.62/63.64/74.37 亿元，对应PE 分别是13x/11x/9x，维持"推荐"评级。 风险提示：国内工程机械周期性下行的风险；海外市场拓展不及预期的风险；新业务发展不及预期 的风险。 分产品来看，起重机、混凝土略有下滑，高空机械、农机稳步增长。2024 年公司起重机械实现营 业收入147.86 亿元，同比-23.35%，毛利率32.41%，同比+1.37 pct；混凝土机械实现营业收入80.13 亿 元，同比-6.8%，毛利率22.68%，同比-0.24 pct；高空机械实现营业收入68.33 亿元，同比+19.74%，毛 利率29.71%，同比+7.05 pct；土方机械实现营业收入66.7 亿元，同比+0.3 ...

中联重科去年国内营收降逾两成 外销占比过半预计 今年稳增长 3月26日，中联重科（000157）在2024年业绩说明会上表示，截至2024年末，公司第二增长曲线的 收入占比已超过48%，未来将大力培育土方机械、高空机械、农业机械、矿山机械等第二增长曲线，以 及布局具身智能等未来产业作为第三增长曲线。 中联重科日前公告称，2024年实现营收454.78亿元，同比减少3.39%；净利润35.2亿元，同比增长 0.41%；基本每股收益0.41元，同比减少4.65%。 其中四季度，中联重科营收为110.92亿元，同比减少4.05%；净利润为3.81亿元，同比下滑 41.42%。 另外值得注意的是，该公司去年海外收入同比增长30.58%至233.8亿元，占总营收的比重较上一年 提升了13.37个百分点至51.41%。而国内市场营收受房地产行业影响同比降超24%。 分产品来看，中联重科主营产品起重机械实现营收147.86亿元，同比下降23.35%；混凝土机械实现 营收80.13亿元，同比下降6.8%；土方机械实现营收66.71亿元，同比增长0.34%；高空作业机械实现营 收68.33亿元，同比增长19.74%；农业机械实 ...

直击业绩说明会 | 中联重科去年传统板块收入同比 下滑 公司董秘：已触底，今年有望驶入增长轨道 整体来看，2024年中联重科实现营业收入454.78亿元，同比下降3.39%；归母净利润35.20亿元，同比增 长0.41%。其中，境外收入233.8亿元，首超境内收入（220.98亿元）。 传统板块下滑较大，称已培育第二增长曲线 根据中联重科年报披露，传统产品中，去年混凝土机械收入80.13亿元，同比减少6.80%，收入占比为 17.62%，减少0.65个百分点；起重机械收入147.86亿元，同比减少23.35%，收入占比32.51%，减少8.47 个百分点。 在国内工程机械市场低迷的背景下，公司2025年业绩增长支撑来自何处？陶兆波介绍称，公司全力加速 向多元化、全球化、数字化转型，积极培育新的增长曲线，这些转型举措显著增强了公司发展的稳定 性，让企业进入非周期、可持续的发展通道。 多元化方面，据陶兆波介绍，中联重科大力培育了土方机械、高空机械、农业机械、矿山机械等第二增 长曲线，截至2024年末，第二增长曲线的业务收入占比已超过48%。同时，公司也布局了具身智能等未 来产业作为公司的第三增长曲线。 不过，《每 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 9.84, compared to the last closing price of 7.82 [1]. Core Views - The company's profitability continues to improve, and there is optimism regarding its globalization and diversification strategies [1][7]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 454.78 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.39%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 35.20 billion, a slight increase of 0.41% [4][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s three traditional product lines—concrete machinery, engineering hoisting machinery, and construction hoisting machinery—are performing steadily, with overall export sales growing by over 35% year-on-year [5]. - Emerging industries are rapidly growing, contributing to new growth areas, with significant increases in sales for various machinery categories, including a 122% increase in agricultural machinery sales [5]. International Strategy - The company has firmly advanced its international strategy, with overseas revenue reaching 233.80 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30.58%, accounting for 51.41% of total revenue [6]. - The company has established a presence in over 40 key countries and has built more than 400 various outlets in major global cities [6]. Profitability and Operational Quality - The company’s gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 28.17% and 8.81%, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 0.63 percentage points and 0.80 percentage points [7]. - The company has improved its operational quality, with a significant reduction in receivables and inventory, and a comprehensive collection rate of 120.29%, up by 13.26 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 530.65 billion, 624.63 billion, and 718.32 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to be 50.23 billion, 63.01 billion, and 76.16 billion [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co., Ltd. (000157) with a target price of 9.84, compared to the last closing price of 7.82 [1]. Core Views - The company's profitability continues to improve, and there is optimism regarding its globalization and diversification strategies [1][7]. - The report highlights a decline in revenue for 2024, amounting to 454.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.39%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.41% to 35.20 billion yuan [4][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 28.17% and a net margin of 8.81%, reflecting year-on-year increases of 0.63 percentage points and 0.80 percentage points, respectively [7]. - The company’s accounts receivable decreased by 10.26 billion yuan, a reduction of 20.16%, and inventory decreased by 1.76 billion yuan, a decline of 7.24% [7]. - The comprehensive collection rate reached 120.29%, an increase of 13.26 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 530.65 billion yuan, 624.63 billion yuan, and 718.32 billion yuan, respectively, with expected net profits of 50.23 billion yuan, 63.01 billion yuan, and 76.16 billion yuan [8]. - The expected revenue growth rates for these years are 16.7%, 17.7%, and 15.0%, respectively [8]. Market Position and Growth - The company’s traditional product lines, including concrete machinery and engineering cranes, are performing steadily, with overall export sales growing by over 35% [5]. - Emerging industries are also expanding, with significant growth in earth-moving machinery, agricultural machinery, and other new business segments [5]. - The company’s international strategy is progressing, with overseas revenue reaching 233.80 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30.58%, accounting for 51.41% of total revenue [6]. Stock Data - The total share capital is 8.678 billion shares, with a total market capitalization of 678.62 billion yuan [3]. - The stock has seen a 12-month high of 9.53 yuan and a low of 5.72 yuan [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Viewpoints - The company's overseas revenue continued to grow rapidly, increasing by 31% year-on-year, with overseas revenue accounting for 51% of total revenue, up 13 percentage points year-on-year [2][11] - The domestic revenue in 2024 is expected to decline due to impacts from concrete machinery and lifting machinery, but recovery is anticipated in 2025 [2][11] - The company has seen improvements in gross margins across multiple product lines, including lifting machinery and earth-moving machinery [2][11] - The outlook for 2025 remains positive, with traditional segments expected to stabilize and new businesses contributing to growth, supported by an increasingly globalized layout [2][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 45.478 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.39% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.520 billion yuan, an increase of 0.41% year-on-year [6][11] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 11.092 billion yuan, down 4.05% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.381 billion yuan, down 41.42% year-on-year [6][11] Overseas Business Growth - The company’s overseas business continues to expand, with significant growth in regions such as Europe, Australia, New Zealand, and emerging markets in Africa and Latin America [2][11] - The export sales of major product lines, including concrete machinery and lifting machinery, have increased by over 35% year-on-year [11] Domestic Market Outlook - The domestic market faced challenges in 2024, with significant declines in the sales of various lifting machinery types [11] - However, there is an expectation for recovery in 2025, particularly in the demand for concrete mixers and cranes driven by new energy trends [11] Profitability and Shareholder Returns - The company’s overall gross margin improved in 2024, benefiting from structural optimization and cost reduction efforts [11] - A cash dividend of 3.00 yuan per 10 shares is proposed for 2024, totaling approximately 2.6 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 74% [11] Future Growth Prospects - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 5.005 billion yuan and 6.076 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14 times and 11 times [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative price increase of over 15% in the next six months [11][17]. Core Views - The company's revenue is projected to slightly decline by 3.39% year-on-year in 2024, primarily due to a downturn in the domestic cycle, while overseas markets are expected to grow by over 30%, with revenue contribution surpassing 50% [1][9]. - The company is experiencing stable improvement in profitability, with a 14% year-on-year increase in net profit after excluding share-based payment expenses [1][9]. - The engineering machinery industry is anticipated to witness a simultaneous upward trend in both domestic and overseas markets, driven by the company's ongoing diversification and internationalization efforts [1][10]. Revenue Summary - In 2024, the company's total revenue is expected to be 454.78 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.39% year-on-year [2][3]. - Revenue breakdown by business segments includes: - Concrete machinery: 80.13 billion yuan, down 6.80% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 22.68% [3]. - Lifting machinery: 147.86 billion yuan, down 23.35% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 32.41% [3]. - Earth-moving machinery: 66.71 billion yuan, up 0.34% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 30.18% [3]. - Aerial work machinery: 68.33 billion yuan, up 19.74% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 29.71% [3]. - Agricultural machinery: 46.50 billion yuan, up 122.29% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 12.25% [3]. Profitability Summary - The company's net profit for 2024 is projected to be 35.20 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.41% year-on-year [2][9]. - After excluding share-based payment impacts, the adjusted net profit is expected to be 42.56 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.72% [9]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 is estimated at 28.17%, an increase of 0.62 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin is expected to rise to 8.81%, up 0.80 percentage points year-on-year [9][12]. Industry Outlook - The engineering machinery sector is expected to see a recovery in domestic demand, with various investment areas such as rural, water conservancy, and renewable energy showing positive trends [10]. - The overseas market is projected to maintain a growth rate of around 15%, particularly in regions like Africa, Southeast Asia, and Europe [10]. - The company is actively pursuing diversification, with its revenue from emerging sectors exceeding 48%, reducing reliance on traditional real estate-related businesses [10].