Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the new opportunities in investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, driven by a new factor system, a restructured institutional framework, and an innovative service system in the capital market [1]. Group 1: New Factor System - The new factor system, represented by talent and new assets, is becoming a new driving force for China's economic growth. The "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights the importance of technological innovation and original breakthroughs [2]. - Accumulation of technological factors will enable breakthroughs in future industries such as artificial intelligence, biomedicine, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion, embodied intelligence, and 6G mobile communication [2]. - Data factors will drive economic growth by transforming consumption channels and habits, leading to new consumption patterns such as service consumption, emotional consumption, and integrated consumption [2]. Group 2: New Institutional Framework - The capital market is expected to enhance its quality and capacity under the guidance of policies aimed at activating the market and coordinating investment and financing functions [3]. - Reforms in the capital market's basic systems will significantly improve market inclusiveness and adaptability, with a focus on deepening reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, Growth Enterprise Market, and Beijing Stock Exchange [3]. - The formation of a healthy market ecosystem will enhance the attractiveness of the Chinese market, promoting mutual constraints and cooperation among institutional investors, intermediaries, listed companies, and retail investors [3]. Group 3: New Service System - The company is accelerating reforms in its organizational structure, management model, and business system to adapt to changes in the economic landscape, focusing on a comprehensive service system [4]. - In financing services, the company is developing diversified service solutions that encompass venture capital, IPOs, mergers and acquisitions, refinancing, asset securitization, ESG, and strategic consulting [4]. - The investment service aims to meet diverse asset allocation needs of investors with a robust product offering, while trading services are enhancing liquidity support through innovative products like OTC derivatives, market making, ETFs, and carbon finance [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing significant structural changes in both company and investor composition, suggesting a potential systemic uplift in valuations, with the equity risk premium (ERP) likely to decline in the medium to long term [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index has increased by 29.15% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 32.23% in the first ten months of the year, indicating a bullish market [2]. - The current market performance is primarily driven by valuation expansion, yet the overall valuation remains relatively low compared to global peers [2]. Group 2: Earnings Expectations - There has been a continuous upward revision in earnings expectations for many companies, reflecting a positive outlook for corporate profitability [2]. - In a neutral scenario, the potential return for the Hang Seng Index next year is estimated at approximately 22.92%, with an optimistic scenario reaching up to 33.83% [2]. Group 3: Structural Changes - The industry and investor structures in the Hong Kong market have undergone profound changes, with the technology sector's market capitalization and trading volume surpassing that of traditional sectors over the past decade [4]. - The current ERP in the Hong Kong market is around 5%, a low level not seen since early 2018, indicating potential for valuation uplift [3]. Group 4: Offshore Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong market's offshore characteristics lead to a higher volatility in ERP compared to other major global markets, with historical lower bounds around 4% [4][5]. - The proportion of trading through the Stock Connect program is approximately 25%-30%, which is on an upward trend, indicating a shift towards reducing the offshore discount and aligning valuations with global markets [5].

Group 1: Overall Industry Outlook - The automotive industry is entering a new growth phase driven by mid-to-high-end vehicle replacements and overseas expansion, with limited impact from policy changes expected next year [1] - The demand for vehicles is anticipated to recover significantly, particularly in the mid-to-high-end segments, due to changes in consumer habits, capabilities, and product competitiveness compared to eight years ago [1] - The global sales of Chinese smart electric vehicles are expected to approach 10 million units in five years, indicating a strong international market potential [1] Group 2: Automotive Components - Automotive components represent a typical example of China's "high-end manufacturing," characterized by scale effects, cost advantages, and technological superiority [2] - New applications such as robotics and low-altitude economy are becoming essential areas for component manufacturers, with a significant focus on companies like Tesla and Zhiyuan [2] - The globalization strategy is seen as a long-term growth path for leading automotive component companies, particularly with an emphasis on European markets by 2026 [2] Group 3: AI Integration - The automotive industry is undergoing dual transformations of electrification and AI integration, with AI expected to play a crucial role in the physical world [3] - AICar is projected to become a super intelligent entity by integrating four major intelligent systems: driving, cabin, chassis, and power [3] - The future will likely see technology spillover from smart vehicles to robotics, low-altitude economy, and deep-sea technology [3]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing a positive trend, supported by a moderately loose monetary policy and ongoing reforms, which are expected to enhance banks' operational stability and their ability to support high-quality economic development [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 19, 2025, the CSI Bank Index (399986) rose by 1.14%, while the E Fund Bank ETF (516310) increased by 1.24%, with a transaction volume of 52.8 million yuan [1]. - Over the past three months, the E Fund Bank ETF (516310) has seen an increase in scale by 808 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Policy and Economic Context - The central bank emphasizes a scientific approach to financial total indicators and maintaining a reasonable interest rate relationship, which is beneficial for banks' stable operations and their alignment with economic development [1]. - The introduction of the 14th Five-Year Plan is driving transformation in the banking sector, with improvements in net profits observed in the third quarter [1]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - According to Shenwan Hongyuan Research, the banking sector is at the beginning of a long-term recovery, with the overall price-to-book (PB) ratio around 0.7 times, indicating a solid foundation for valuation uplift [1]. - The current low interest rate environment is encouraging long-term capital, such as insurance funds, to increase allocations to high-dividend assets, making bank stocks attractive [1]. - Public fund holdings have dropped to the lowest level in nearly a decade, suggesting significant room for recovery [1]. - Looking ahead to 2026, the central bank aims to support banks in stabilizing net interest margins, which could lead to positive growth in net interest income, especially for banks with ample provisions and strong internal capital capabilities [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the AI revolution is still in its early stages, and the potential for a "golden era" in AI capital may follow the current bubble phase [1][3] - The article discusses the divergence in asset prices since the emergence of ChatGPT, highlighting a conflict between strong expectations for the AI industry and weak economic realities [1] - It predicts that by 2025, the U.S. economy will experience a "soft landing," with a continued trend of interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar, while both risk and safe-haven assets will perform well [1][2] Group 2 - In 2025, AI capital expenditure is expected to become a new pillar of the U.S. economy, although there are concerns about cash flow pressures and debt financing needs for representative companies [3] - The article outlines that the monetary policy cycles in the U.S., Europe, and Japan will diverge, with the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to cut rates twice, while Japan may restart rate hikes depending on internal political stability [2] - It highlights the fiscal expansion expected in the U.S., Germany, and Japan, with respective increases in deficit rates of +1.0%, +0.84%, and +0.77%, and the impact on GDP growth from fiscal expansion is ranked as follows: Germany +0.63%, U.S. +0.6%, Japan +0.25%, and Eurozone +0.2% [2]

专题：申万宏源2026资本市场投资年会 11月19日，申万宏源证券2026资本市场投资年会在上海举办， 申万宏源研究资产配置资深高级分析师 冯晓宇，发表申万宏源2026年美股投资策略，当前市场对"AI泡沫"的担心主要是新技术带来经济规模效 应的时间vs资本市场对新技术投资回报的乐观期待之间的落差。 自2023年以来，本轮美股AI行情已经持续三年时间。2023~2024年美股AI行情以提估值为主，AI基础设 施以及有业绩的AI应用普涨。2025年AI相关行业（科技、通信）估值贡献相对有限，并且债务融资支 撑投资比例增加，在AI产业投资的ROI（投资回报率）尚不明确的阶段，市场进入对效益审视更严苛的 阶段。 当前市场对"AI泡沫"的担心主要是新技术带来经济规模效应的时间vs资本市场对新技术投资回报的乐观 期待之间的落差。从技术发展周期来看，新技术往往有助于生产效率的提升，不过生产力的提升（释放 新需求）需要技术成本系统性下降、企业组织架构调整、就业结构调整，这需要以年为单位的时间。这 个过程中，资本市场往往以乐观思维推演新技术的终局效用。而当市场看到生产力转化过程中的边界 时，股价泡沫往往出现破裂。对于边界的衡量 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming year 2026 is anticipated to be a year of comprehensive reform and development, with new driving forces for economic growth emerging, particularly in technology and innovation [1][2][3]. Economic Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes accelerating high-level technological self-reliance and innovation, which is expected to drive new productivity in the economy [2]. - The accumulation of technological factors is projected to lead to breakthroughs in future industries such as AI, biomedicine, hydrogen energy, and sixth-generation mobile communications [2]. - The focus on expanding domestic demand is expected to strengthen under the reform framework, with a notable emphasis on structural economic recovery in 2026 [3]. A-Share Market Strategy - A-share market is currently experiencing a phase of high valuation and potential adjustment, particularly in the AI sector, but a significant upward trend is not yet concluded [6][7]. - A small rebound in technology growth is expected before the spring of 2026, with a potential comprehensive market rally in the second half of the year [7]. - Key investment themes for 2026 include recovery trades in basic chemicals and industrial metals, technology industry trends in humanoid robots and energy storage, and enhanced manufacturing influence [7]. Consumer and Investment Trends - The nominal GDP is expected to improve, leading to better profitability and a recovery in investment growth, with fixed asset investment projected to return to around 3% [4]. - Consumer retail growth is anticipated to be 4.5% in 2026, with service sector retail expected to perform better at 5.5% [3]. External Demand - Export resilience is expected to remain strong, with a narrowing decline in exports to the U.S. and an increase in trade with non-U.S. regions [5].

2025年全球形势复杂多变，A股市场走出一波上涨行情。那么即将到来的2026年，宏观经济将会如何演 绎，A股市场上涨行情是结束还是蓄势待发？ 对于A股策略方面，申万宏源研究A股策略首席分析师傅静涛认为，A股AI产业链股价已处于长期低性 价比区域，但大波段上涨行情尚未结束，2026年春季前科技成长可能还有小波段反弹，在达到阶段性高 点后可能震荡调整，2026年下半年，A股可能启动全面上涨行情。 "十五五"规划建议进一步明确，采取超常规措施，全链条推动集成电路、工业母机、高端仪器、基础软 件、先进材料、生物制造等重点领域关键核心技术攻关取得决定性突破。 赵伟称，这一表述凸显了当前科技竞争的严峻性与我国突破"卡脖子"难题的决心，超常规措施或将体现 在研发投入强度提升、科研体制机制改革、创新生态优化等多个维度。"人工智能+"行动的全面实施或 成重要抓手，旨在抢占人工智能产业应用制高点，全方位赋能千行百业。 同时，"十五五"规划建议首提"续写经济快速发展和社会长期稳定两大奇迹新篇章"。赵伟认为，续 写"两大奇迹"，对未来一段时期的经济增速有基本要求，或意味着内需政策将在中长期改革框架下持续 加强。 从内需的角度来看，赵 ...

Core Insights - The conference held by Shenwan Hongyuan focused on investment opportunities during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing various sectors including asset allocation, high-end manufacturing, artificial intelligence, and consumption [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Development and Innovation - Liu Jian, Chairman of Shenwan Hongyuan, highlighted the shift in China's economic growth model towards innovation-driven development, with a focus on original innovation and technological breakthroughs [3]. - China's R&D expenditure is projected to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan in 2024, representing approximately 2.69% of GDP, surpassing Japan and South Korea in terms of R&D scale [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Bull Market Analysis - Zhao Wei, Chief Economist at Shenwan Hongyuan, indicated that 2026 will be a pivotal year for reform and development, suggesting that accelerating reforms will create significant opportunities [3][4]. - The "bull market two-stage theory" proposed by Fu Jingtao suggests that the first stage, characterized by a technology-driven market, may peak in spring 2026, followed by a comprehensive bull market in the second half of 2026 [4][5]. - Fu Jingtao noted that the current bull market is still in its early stages, with a shift in asset allocation towards equities expected to drive market growth [5].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasizes the importance of capital markets in supporting five key financial areas: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, with Shenyin Wanguo playing a crucial role in these initiatives [1] Group 1: Company Strategy and Development - Shenyin Wanguo is committed to integrating national strategies with its own development, focusing on high-quality economic growth and capital market evolution as it enters the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][8] - The company has established a comprehensive network to serve the real economy, enhancing its role as a direct financing service provider and a wealth manager [1][8] Group 2: Governance and Talent Development - The company emphasizes governance, talent, and culture as foundational elements for sustainable development, integrating social responsibility into its core values [2] - Shenyin Wanguo has implemented a flexible talent management strategy, promoting a culture of accountability and innovation to support its financial services [3] Group 3: Innovation and Service to New Quality Productivity - The company aims to support high-level technological self-reliance and new quality productivity, with a projected underwriting scale exceeding 930 billion yuan in 2024 [4] - Shenyin Wanguo has actively engaged with specialized and innovative enterprises, enhancing its financial support for key technology sectors [5] Group 4: Professional Capabilities and Market Position - The company has developed a value management system to enhance the performance of quality listed companies, utilizing a unique diamond model for value assessment [6] - Shenyin Wanguo is building a one-stop service platform to facilitate multi-dimensional trading for enterprises, enhancing collaboration with various financial institutions [7] Group 5: Commitment to National Strategy - The company is dedicated to aligning its operations with national strategic needs, focusing on high-quality development in the financial sector and supporting the stability of the real economy [8]