来源：金融界 金融界消息 截至2025年7月30日收盘，云铝股份（000807）报收于16.16元，下跌0.31%，换手率 1.09%，成交量37.90万手，成交金额6.14亿元。 资金流向方面，今日主力资金净流出5279.57万元，占比成交额8.59%。其中，超大单净流出1333.82万 元、占成交额2.17%，大单净流出3945.74万元、占成交额6.42%，中单净流出流入831.20万元、占成交 额1.35%，小单净流入4448.37万元、占成交额7.24%。 云铝股份最新一期业绩显示，截至2025一季报，公司营业总收入144.11亿元、同比增长26.89%，归属净 利润9.74亿元，同比减少16.26%，扣非净利润9.70亿元，同比减少6.30%，流动比率2.081、速动比率 1.414、资产负债率23.97%。 天眼查商业履历信息显示，云南铝业股份有限公司，成立于1998年，位于昆明市，是一家以从事有色金 属冶炼和压延加工业为主的企业。企业注册资本346795.7405万人民币，实缴资本346795.7405万人民 币。公司法定代表人为冀树军。 通过天眼查大数据分析，云南铝业股份有限公司共对外投资了 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Views - The macroeconomic outlook is improving, leading to a comprehensive rise in metal prices, particularly strategic metals [2][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic metals and bottom energy metal allocation opportunities, highlighting the revaluation of rare earths and tungsten [4] - The report suggests that the domestic growth stabilization and anti-involution policies are enhancing expectations, which is driving up domestic commodity prices [5][6] Summary by Sections Strategic Metals - Strategic metals such as rare earths and tungsten are experiencing a revaluation, with significant price increases expected due to government focus and international supply chain developments [4] - The price of rare earth concentrate has increased to 19,100 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [4] - Tungsten prices are also on the rise, supported by strong supply dynamics and improving company performance [4] Energy Metals - The report indicates a high probability of short-term price increases for cobalt, with a significant drop in imports noted [4] - Cobalt intermediate imports in June fell to 18,991 tons, a decrease of 61.6% month-on-month [4] - Nickel prices are expected to stabilize, with long-term price expectations likely to rise [4] Lithium - The report notes a bottoming out of lithium prices, with recent regulatory changes indicating stricter domestic mining controls [4] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has rebounded by 15.2% to 76 CNY/kg [24] - The report suggests monitoring potential resource releases in the lithium sector [4] Precious Metals - Gold prices are fluctuating due to improved risk appetite and easing trade tensions, with a recommendation to increase allocation to precious metal stocks [4][6] - The report highlights that gold stocks have underperformed, suggesting a strategic buying opportunity [4] - Silver is noted for its potential upside, with a recommendation to consider silver stocks for recovery [4] Industrial Metals - The report indicates that industrial metals are experiencing mixed performance, with domestic prices leading international trends [5][6] - Copper prices on the SHFE increased by 1.1%, while aluminum prices rose by 1.2% [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic policies and their impact on metal demand [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry and specific companies within the sector [6]. Core Views - The report highlights a positive outlook for industrial metals driven by domestic policies aimed at reducing competition and boosting infrastructure investment, alongside U.S. fiscal expansion and ongoing interest rate cuts [2][3]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, are expected to see price increases due to supply disruptions and strong demand from the new energy sector [3]. - Precious metals are favored due to heightened demand for gold as a safe haven amid global trade tensions and ongoing central bank purchases [4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that industrial metal prices are rising due to domestic "anti-involution" policies and infrastructure investment, with copper prices experiencing short-term fluctuations due to trade changes [2]. - Key statistics include a weekly increase in aluminum prices by 1.22% and copper prices by 1.07%, while zinc prices rose by 2.65% [11]. - Recommended companies include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are rebounding significantly due to supply concerns from regions like Jiangxi and Qinghai, with expectations for continued price increases [3]. - Cobalt prices are also anticipated to rise due to raw material shortages and increased demand as the market recovers from a low trading volume [3]. - Recommended companies in this sector include Huayou Cobalt and Zangge Mining [3]. Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the increasing demand for gold driven by global trade uncertainties and central bank purchases, predicting a long-term upward trend in gold prices [4]. - Gold prices have shown a weekly increase of 0.68%, while silver prices rose by 2.13% [11]. - Recommended companies include Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold [4].

Core Viewpoint - In Q2 2025, active equity public funds continued to increase their holdings in the A-share non-ferrous metal industry, with the market value of heavy holdings in this sector rising to 2.21% of total stock investments [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Holdings and Sector Performance - Active equity public funds primarily increased their positions in the A-share precious metals and rare metals sectors, focusing on major commodity leaders such as gold and copper, while also significantly increasing holdings in rare earth and silver stocks [1][4]. - The market value of heavy holdings in the A-share non-ferrous metal sector rose by 0.03 percentage points from Q1 2025, marking two consecutive quarters of increased investment in this industry [2][3]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - In Q2 2025, the market value proportions of various non-ferrous metal sub-sectors within active equity public funds were as follows: copper (0.89%), aluminum (0.19%), lead-zinc (0.11%), gold (0.48%), rare earth (0.07%), lithium (0.03%), and others, with notable changes in their respective holdings compared to Q1 2025 [3]. - The top ten A-share non-ferrous metal stocks held by active equity public funds accounted for 73.31% of the total market value of all heavy holdings in this sector, reflecting a 0.08 percentage point increase from Q1 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the aluminum industry, highlighting the potential for high prices due to stable demand and controlled supply [4][8]. Core Insights - Aluminum is the most abundant metal on Earth, with Guinea holding the largest bauxite reserves at approximately 7.4 billion tons, accounting for 25.52% of global reserves [4][21]. - The global electrolytic aluminum production is projected to reach 72 million tons in 2024, with China maintaining a dominant position at 43 million tons, representing 60% of the total [4][67]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential of the green aluminum industry, particularly in regions like Yunnan, which benefits from abundant hydropower resources [5][70]. Summary by Sections Global Bauxite Resource Status - Bauxite is primarily found in Guinea, Australia, and other countries, with China having a relatively low reserve of 2.34% [21]. - In 2024, global bauxite production is expected to be 45 million tons, with Guinea contributing 13 million tons, or 28.89% [27]. Global Bauxite Production - The top three producers of bauxite in 2024 are Guinea (13 million tons), Australia (10 million tons), and China (9.3 million tons) [27][28]. - China imports significant amounts of bauxite from Guinea and Australia, with imports of 110.58 million tons and 39.89 million tons, respectively [27]. Global Alumina Production - The global alumina production is projected to be 142 million tons in 2024, with China producing 84 million tons, accounting for 60% of the total [37]. - China's alumina capacity is expanding rapidly, with a year-on-year growth of 6.86% [37]. Global Electrolytic Aluminum Production - The report indicates that the global electrolytic aluminum production will reach 72 million tons in 2024, with China leading at 43 million tons [67]. - The demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to grow due to the increasing use in renewable energy sectors [89]. Yunnan's Clean Energy Advantage - Yunnan province has a significant advantage in clean energy, with hydropower accounting for 71.22% of its total electricity generation in 2024 [70]. - The province is positioned to support high-energy-consuming industries like electrolytic aluminum production [70]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies Yunnan's green aluminum industry as having substantial growth opportunities due to its resource advantages and the EU's carbon tax policy [5][8]. - Companies like Yun Aluminum are highlighted as leaders in the green aluminum sector, with a comprehensive production capacity and a focus on sustainable practices [79].

Group 1: Production and Supply - The company's electrolytic aluminum production line is operating at full capacity, with no expected impact from power restrictions due to favorable water supply in Yunnan province this year [1] - The electricity procurement cost remains controllable as it is determined through market-based pricing [1] - The company adopts a market-based pricing model for alumina procurement, maintaining reasonable inventory levels based on production needs [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and Dividends - In 2024, the total dividend amount is approximately CNY 1.422 billion, accounting for 32.23% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [2] - The company aims to maintain a cash dividend ratio of no less than 30% of the distributable profits each year, with plans to increase the dividend amount as operational performance improves [2] Group 3: Resource Acquisition and Sustainability - The company plans to accelerate the process of converting exploration to mining and enhance the acquisition of bauxite resources, while also participating in resource exploration within Yunnan province [2] - There is a focus on developing a green aluminum integrated industrial chain to ensure long-term returns for shareholders [2] Group 4: Green Aluminum Market - The company is the largest supplier of green low-carbon aluminum in China, with some downstream enterprises accepting a premium for its green aluminum products [3] - Future strategies include leveraging the green aluminum brand advantage to expand into high-end markets such as photovoltaic power, national defense, rail transportation, and electronics [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal industry is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the industry index rising by 1.86% and individual stocks like Tungsten High-tech and Yahua Group seeing significant gains of 10.02% and 9.99% respectively [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to release a growth stabilization plan for key industries, including non-ferrous metals, focusing on structural adjustments, supply optimization, and phasing out outdated production capacity [1] - The copper and aluminum sectors are highlighted for their high-quality development plans, with an emphasis on addressing the overcapacity issues in copper smelting and alumina production [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) includes 50 prominent securities, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index account for 50.02% of the index, with companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum among the leaders [2]

签署日期：二〇二五年七月 信息披露义务人声明 一、信息披露义务人依据《中华人民共和国证券法》 （以下简称"《证券法》"）、 《上市公司收购管理办法》（以下简称"《收购办法》"）、《公开发行证券的 公司信息披露内容与格式准则第 15 号——权益变动报告书》（以下简称"《准 则 15 号》"）及其他相关法律、法规和部门规章的有关规定编写本报告书。 二、信息披露义务人签署本报告已获得必要的授权和批准，其履行亦不违反 信息披露义务人章程或内部规则中的任何条款，或与之相冲突。 上市公司：云南铜业股份有限公司 上市地点：深圳证券交易所 股票简称：云南铜业 股票代码：000878.SZ 信息披露义务人一：云南铜业（集团）有限公司 住所：云南省昆明市盘龙区华云路 1 号 通讯地址：云南省昆明市盘龙区华云路 1 号 信息披露义务人二：中国铝业集团有限公司 住所：北京市海淀区西直门北大街 62 号 18、22、28 层 通讯地址：北京市海淀区西直门北大街 62 号 信息披露义务人三：中国铜业有限公司 住所：云南省昆明市盘龙区华云路 1 号 通讯地址：云南省昆明市盘龙区华云路 1 号 股份权益变动性质：因信息披露义务人认购上市公司 ...

| 日期 | 当日涨跌幅（%） | 换手率（%） | 主力资金净流入（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025.07.18 | 4.98 | 0.61 | -303.05 | | 2025.07.17 | 4.99 | 0.08 | -9.21 | | 2025.07.16 | 4.99 | 0.37 | 2363.14 | | 2025.07.15 | -2.43 | 1.66 | -4769.28 | | 2025.07.14 | 5.12 | 1.32 | -4323.51 | | 2025.07.11 | 5.11 | 0.08 | 611.39 | | 2025.07.10 | 5.08 | 0.08 | 566.05 | | 2025.07.09 | 5.04 | 0.50 | 779.01 | | 2025.07.08 | 4.98 | 1.48 | 284.00 | | 2025.04.30 | 1.26 | 7.14 | -3351.96 | 7月5日公司发布的一季报数据显示，一季度公司共实现营业总收入21.63亿元，同比增长1.33%，实现净 利润5.9 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1]. Core Views - The aluminum prices are experiencing fluctuations during the off-season, and a growth stabilization plan is expected to be announced soon [6][11]. - Despite the off-season demand, the low inventory levels and reduced aluminum supply are expected to provide some support for aluminum prices [11]. - The long-term outlook for the aluminum industry remains positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [11]. Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of July 18, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2638.0 per ton, up $36.0 from the previous week, representing a 1.4% week-on-week increase and a 9.7% year-on-year increase [24]. - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 20510.0 CNY per ton, down 185.0 CNY from the previous week, a 0.9% decrease week-on-week, but up 3.9% year-on-year [24]. - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 20760.0 CNY per ton, unchanged from the previous week, but up 5.4% year-on-year [24]. 2. Production - In June 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 360.9 million tons, a decrease of 12.0 million tons month-on-month and a decrease of 2.8 million tons year-on-year [53]. - The alumina production in June 2025 was 725.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.4 million tons month-on-month, but an increase of 26.9 million tons year-on-year [53]. 3. Inventory - As of July 17, the domestic mainstream consumption area had an electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory of 49.20 million tons, an increase of 2.6 million tons week-on-week [7]. - The aluminum rod inventory was 15.60 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons week-on-week, mainly due to reduced production and downstream replenishment [7]. 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.71 CNY for 2025E [5]. - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 1.12 CNY for 2025E [5]. - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.62 CNY for 2025E [5]. - China Aluminum (601600.SH) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 0.91 CNY for 2025E [5]. - Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.00 CNY for 2025E [5].