假设 2：考虑宏观经济持续向好，下游需求有所回升，故假设 24-26 年公司汽配业务收 入增长 45%/25%/25%。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------| | | 收入 | 33959.2 | 37828.89 | 42426.72 | 46519.55 | | 整车 | 增速 | 49.98% | 11.40% | 12.15% | 9.65% | | | 毛利率 | 6.45% | 7.00% | 7.50% | 8.00% | | | 收入 | 8010.0 | 11614.53 | 14518.16 | 18147.70 | | 汽配 | 增速 | 31.08% | 45.00% | 25.00% | 25.00% | | | 毛利率 | 13.02% | 13.50% | 13.70% | 13.90% | | | 收入 | 100.76 | 103.78 | 106.90 | 110.11 | | 其他 | 增速 | 46. ...

风险提示：汽车销量不及预期；公司新项目量产不及预期；公司技术研发情 况不及预期 公司点评报告 (带市场行情) 25000 200% 150% 200000 100% 15000 50% 10000 0% 5000 -50% -100% 14% 12% 10% 8% 676 4% 256 006 -25 表 1、中国重汽单季度各项费用率 资料来源：公司公告，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 - 3 - 公司点评报告(带市场行情) 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 - 2 - 图 2、中国重汽分季度归母净利润与同比(单位:百万元) 数据来源：公司公告、兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 数据来源：公司公告、兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 - 4 - 分析师声明 本人具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格并登记为证券分析师，以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出具本 报告。本报告清晰准确地反映了本人的研究观点。本人不曾因，不因，也将不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接收到任何形式的补偿。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Co., Ltd. (000951.SZ) [3][8] Core Views - The company has exceeded earnings expectations in Q4 2023, with significant growth in heavy truck sales driven by both domestic recovery and strong export performance [3][8] - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing recovery in the heavy truck industry, with anticipated net profits of 1.41 billion, 1.91 billion, and 2.23 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 30.9%, 35.2%, and 16.7% [8][10] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 42.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.96%, and a net profit of 1.08 billion yuan, up 405.52% from the previous year [13] - The gross margin for 2023 was 7.85%, with Q4 gross margin reaching 9.41%, indicating a significant improvement [5][13] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 0.92 yuan, with projections of 1.20 yuan, 1.63 yuan, and 1.90 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [8][10] Market Position and Strategy - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group is the leading player in the domestic heavy truck market, with a market share of 25.8% in 2023, benefiting from a strong product lineup and strategic marketing [14] - The company is enhancing its core competitiveness through technological advancements in electric, hybrid, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, as well as optimizing its product structure to meet market demands [5][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Views - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 46% year-on-year, reaching 42.07 billion yuan in 2023, with Q4 revenue growing by 77.6% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company surged by 464.2% year-on-year to 1.04 billion yuan in 2023, with Q4 net profit increasing by 370.9% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company achieved a sales volume growth of 33% to 96,000 units in 2023, driven by a recovery in logistics heavy truck demand and strong export performance [3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue and profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are as follows: - Revenue: 48.8 billion yuan (2024E), 55.9 billion yuan (2025E), 61.0 billion yuan (2026E) [6][8]. - Net profit: 1.44 billion yuan (2024E), 1.89 billion yuan (2025E), 2.22 billion yuan (2026E) [6][8]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 7.8% in 2023 to 10.1% by 2026 [8][16]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 7.3% in 2023 to 10.9% in 2026 [8][16]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned as a leader in the heavy truck industry, benefiting from strong demand for natural gas heavy trucks and collaboration with Shandong Heavy Industry Group [4][15]. - The company has maintained a leading market share in various segments, including traction vehicles and specialized vehicles [15]. Valuation Metrics - As of March 26, 2024, the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is approximately 13 for 2024, with a projected range of 16-18 times for reasonable valuation [15][16]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to be around 1.2 for 2024 [15][16].

中国重汽集团济南卡车股份有限公司 临时公告 证券代码：000951 股票简称：中国重汽 编号：2024-18 中国重汽集团济南卡车股份有限公司 关于举办 2023 年度业绩说明会并征集投资者问题的公告 中国重汽集团济南卡车股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）已于 2024 年 3 月 26 日在巨潮资讯网上披露了公司 2023 年度报告全文及 摘要。为便于广大投资者更加全面深入地了解公司经营业绩和经营等 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完 整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 重要内容提示： ●会议召开时间：2024 年 03 月 29 日（星期五）15:00-16:00 ●会议召开方式：采用网络远程互动方式 ●会议参与方式：投资者可登陆网址 https://eseb.cn/1dbcQAlq6wE 参与公司 2023 年度业绩说明会（下称"业绩说明会"） ●会议问题征集：投资者可于 2024 年 03 月 29 日前访问网址 https://eseb.cn/1dbcQAlq6wE 或使用微信扫描下方小程序码进行会前 提问，公司将通过本次业绩说明会，在信息披露允许范围内就投资者 普遍关注的问 ...

Financial Performance - The total cash inflow from operating activities in 2023 was ¥36,563,766,786.28, an increase of 32.87% compared to ¥27,518,365,005.15 in 2022[5] - The total cash outflow from operating activities in 2023 was ¥34,450,333,727.12, which represents a significant increase of 68.15% from ¥20,488,181,357.72 in 2022[5] - The net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 69.94% to ¥2,113,433,059.16 in 2023, down from ¥7,030,183,647.43 in 2022[5] - The total cash inflow from investing activities was ¥1,518,991,325.90 in 2023, a decrease of 34.17% from ¥2,307,542,162.32 in 2022[5] - The total cash outflow from investing activities increased by 65.92% to ¥4,406,985,048.92 in 2023, compared to ¥2,656,107,044.19 in 2022[5] - The net cash flow from investing activities was negative at ¥-2,887,993,723.02 in 2023, a significant increase in loss of 728.54% from ¥-348,564,881.87 in 2022[5] - The total cash inflow from financing activities decreased by 50.35% to ¥608,343,785.86 in 2023, down from ¥1,225,264,202.76 in 2022[5] - The total cash outflow from financing activities decreased by 65.04% to ¥955,472,832.50 in 2023, compared to ¥2,732,756,224.71 in 2022[5] - The net cash flow from financing activities was negative at ¥-347,129,046.64 in 2023, a decrease of 76.97% from ¥-1,507,492,021.95 in 2022[5] - The net increase in cash and cash equivalents was negative at ¥-1,121,689,710.50 in 2023, a decline of 121.68% from an increase of ¥5,174,126,743.61 in 2022[5] - The company's operating revenue for 2023 reached ¥42.07 billion, a 45.96% increase from ¥28.82 billion in 2022[143] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was ¥1.08 billion, representing a 405.52% increase compared to ¥213.72 million in the previous year[143] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was ¥1.04 billion, up 464.15% from ¥184.75 million in 2022[143] - Basic earnings per share increased to ¥0.92, a 411.11% rise from ¥0.18 in the previous year[143] - The company's total assets at the end of 2023 were ¥37.08 billion, a 7.89% increase from ¥34.37 billion at the end of 2022[143] - The net assets attributable to shareholders increased to ¥14.73 billion, up 7.17% from ¥13.74 billion in 2022[143] - The weighted average return on equity was 7.59%, an increase of 6.04% from 1.55% in the previous year[143] - The company reported a total cash dividend distribution of RMB 95,857,585.98, with a cash dividend of RMB 0.82 per 10 shares[68] - The company reported a significant decrease in investment amount, with RMB 162,301,590.26 in the current period, down 87.57% from RMB 1,305,978,137.83 in the previous year[126] Corporate Governance and Management Changes - The company nominated Mr. Wang Jun as the Chief Marketing Officer (CMO) and Mr. Wang Jun as a non-independent director candidate for the ninth board of directors[37] - The company nominated Mr. Wang Jun as the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and Mr. Zhao Hejun and Mr. Bi Yanxun as senior management candidates for the board of directors[38] - The company announced a board restructuring on May 12, 2023, resulting in the election of new directors and independent directors[50] - The company reported a significant management change with the appointment of Wang Jun as CEO on November 17, 2023, following the dismissal of Zhao Hejun[51] - The company has expanded its board with the election of new independent directors, including Duan Yalin and Yang Guodong, on May 12, 2023[51] - The company’s financial management team has seen changes, with the appointment of new positions such as Chief Operating Officer and Chief Marketing Officer on November 17, 2023[51] - The company is focusing on enhancing its governance structure through the election of new supervisory board members, effective May 12, 2023[51] - The company has appointed a new board secretary, Bi Yanxun, on November 17, 2023, to strengthen its corporate governance[51] - The company has seen a turnover in its management team, with several key positions being filled or vacated throughout 2023[51] - The company has emphasized the importance of its independent directors in ensuring effective oversight and governance[52] Strategic Focus and Market Position - The company is focused on enhancing product quality through a structured improvement plan and a multi-level improvement mechanism[40] - The company is committed to addressing industry competition and has outlined strategies to mitigate risks[46] - The company is actively pursuing new strategies for market expansion and product development[49] - The company has been recognized as a green factory in Jinan, reflecting its commitment to sustainable practices[170] - The company continues to lead in the heavy truck manufacturing sector, being the largest heavy truck manufacturing base in China and exporting to over 110 countries[171] - The demand for gas heavy trucks has surged, contributing to the overall growth in the heavy truck market[169] - The company maintains a strong market position with brands such as "Yellow River" and "HOWO," covering a wide range of truck types and specifications[170] - The company is focusing on R&D in core technologies, including pure electric, hybrid, and hydrogen fuel cell technologies[175] - The establishment of a new intelligent manufacturing base is aimed at enhancing product quality and meeting customized demands[176] - The company is implementing a TCM system to improve production capacity and control plans for new models[177] - The overall strategy includes expanding market presence and optimizing product offerings to meet user demands effectively[195] Internal Controls and Compliance - The company has established a comprehensive internal control system, ensuring no violations leading to regulatory penalties[72] - The company has maintained effective internal controls throughout the reporting period, ensuring the proper execution of significant matters and protecting the interests of shareholders[88] - The company has established a comprehensive management system covering various operational aspects, including product sales and asset management, to ensure compliance with relevant laws and regulations[96] - The company has not faced any objections from the supervisory board regarding the supervision matters during the reporting period[91] - The audit committee confirmed that the 2022 financial statements were audited by Ernst & Young Huaming and received a standard unqualified opinion, indicating that the financial reports are true, accurate, and complete[88] - The internal control audit report for the company will be disclosed on March 26, 2024, and it has received a standard unqualified opinion, indicating no significant deficiencies in non-financial reporting[100] Investment and Asset Management - As of December 31, 2023, the company has an unused balance of RMB 132,833.68 million from the non-public offering, allocated for the smart connected (new energy) heavy truck project[82] - The company has committed to an investment project for smart connected (new energy) heavy trucks with a total investment of RMB 360,138.33 million, of which 66.40% has been utilized[79] - The company has not sold any significant assets or equity during the reporting period[84][85] - The company has not made any significant equity investments during the reporting period[126] - The company has not engaged in any securities or derivative investments during the reporting period[106][107] - The company has not changed the use of raised funds, maintaining a 0.00% change in purpose ratio[111] - The company's financial liabilities remained at zero throughout the reporting period[118] - The total assets of the subsidiary, Heavy Truck (Jinan) Axle Co., Ltd., amounted to RMB 6,750,574,700.69, contributing significantly to the company's net profit[116] Employee Management and Training - The company has implemented a performance-based salary system for employees, linking wages to attendance and adherence to company regulations[39] - The company has conducted various training programs for its employees to improve skills related to quality management and operational efficiency[66] - The company has not implemented any employee incentive plans during the reporting period[71] Sales and Production Performance - The company achieved heavy truck sales of 128,000 units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 32.8%[191] - The total sales revenue reached 42.07 billion yuan, representing a 46% increase compared to the previous year[191] - Heavy truck production for the reporting period was 100,964 units, a 37.03% increase from 73,680 units in the same period last year[172] - The sales volume of heavy trucks was 127,519 units, compared to 96,037 units last year, marking a 32.78% increase[172] - Vehicle sales accounted for ¥33,959,172,080.06, which is 80.72% of total revenue, showing a growth of 49.98% from ¥22,642,685,139.07 in the previous year[200] - Parts sales generated ¥8,010,018,547.44, making up 19.04% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 31.08% from ¥6,110,887,559.20[200] - The net cash flow from operating activities for the fourth quarter was negative CNY 1.89 billion, indicating challenges in cash management during that period[164] - The company has successfully captured market opportunities in the gas vehicle sector, leading to record export sales[191] - The company achieved a strong export performance, with heavy truck exports reaching 276,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 58.1%[169]

中国重汽（000951） 买入（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 重卡业务销量/ASP 齐升，规模效应凸显，毛利率/费用率同步向好。2023 年公司重卡销量 12.75 万台，同比+32.78%，单车均价 26.63 万元，同比 +12.93%；2023 年重卡需求触底回升，叠加出口强劲，行业销量同比高 增，公司加快产品升级和结构调整，布局重卡出口以及天然气重卡等细 分环节，量价均有明显提升。2023 年全年公司整体毛利率 7.85％，同比 +1.67pct，销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别 1.05％/0.78％/1.40％/-0.54％， 同比分别-0.06/-0.13/-0.10/-0.22pct；2023Q4 毛利率 9.41％，同环比分别 +5.91/+2.85pct，Q4 毛利率表现靓丽，主要系规模效应提振叠加产品均 价提升双因素共振，销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别 0.50％/1.34％ /1.53 ％ /-0.69 ％ ， 同 比 分 别 -0.17/+0.25/-1.87/-0.27pct ，环比分别 - 0.51/+0.41/-0.54/-0. ...

公司出具的《关于中国重汽财务有限公司的风险评估报告》充分 地反映了中国重汽财务有限公司的经营资质、内部控制、经营管理和 风险管理状况，未发现中国重汽财务有限公司风险管理存在重大缺陷。 作为非银行金融机构，中国重汽财务有限公司业务范围、业务内容和 流程、内部的风险控制制度等措施都受到中国银保监会的严格监管。 表决结果：同意 3 票，反对 0 票，弃权 0 票。本议案获得通过。 独立董事：张宏、杨国栋、段亚林 第九届董事会 2024 年第三次独立董事专门会议决议 中国重汽集团济南卡车股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第九 届董事会 2024 年第三次独立董事专门会议（以下简称"本次会议"） 通知于 2024 年 3 月 16 日以书面送达和电子邮件等方式发出，2024 年 3 月 23 日下午 4：00 以现场表决的方式在公司会议室召开。 本次会议应到独立董事 3 人，实到 3 人。会议经推举由独立董事 张宏女士担任召集人并主持本次会议。会议的召开及出席人数符合 《中华人民共和国公司法》《上市公司独立董事管理办法》和《公司 章程》的有关规定。 经与会独立董事充分讨论后，审议并表决《关于中国重汽财务有 限公司风险评估 ...

中国重汽集团济南卡车股份有限公司 公司临时公告 证券代码：000951 股票简称：中国重汽 编号：2024-16 中国重汽集团济南卡车股份有限公司 关于续聘会计师事务所的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完 整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 中国重汽集团济南卡车股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 3 月 25 日召开第九届董事会第三次会议和第九届监事会第三次会 议，审议并通过《关于拟续聘财务审计机构及内部控制审计机构的议 案》，公司拟续聘毕马威华振会计师事务所（特殊普通合伙）（以下 简称"毕马威华振"）为公司 2024 年度审计服务机构。现将有关内容 公告如下： 一、续聘会计师事务所的基本情况 （一）机构信息 1、基本信息 毕马威华振会计师事务所于 1992 年 8 月 18 日在北京成立，于 2012 年 7 月 5 日获财政部批准转制为特殊普通合伙的合伙制企业， 更名为毕马威华振会计师事务所（特殊普通合伙），2012 年 7 月 10 日取得工商营业执照，并于 2012 年 8 月 1 日正式运营。毕马威华振 总所位于北京，注册地址为北京市东城区东长安街 1 ...

内部控制审计报告 毕马威华振审字第 2404252 号 中国重汽集团济南卡车股份有限公司全体股东： 内部控制具有固有局限性，存在不能防止和发现错报的可能性。此外，由于情况 的变化可能导致内部控制变得不恰当，或对控制政策和程序遵循的程度降低，根据内 部控制审计结果推测未来内部控制的有效性具有一定风险。 第 1 页，共 2 页 按照《企业内部控制审计指引》及中国注册会计师执业准则的相关要求，我们审 计了中国重汽集团济南卡车股份有限公司（以下简称"卡车股份公司"）2023 年 12 月 31 日的财务报告内部控制的有效性。 一、 企业对内部控制的责任 按照《企业内部控制基本规范》、《企业内部控制应用指引》、《企业内部控制 评价指引》的规定，建立健全和有效实施内部控制，并评价其有效性是卡车股份公司 董事会的责任。 二、 注册会计师的责任 我们的责任是在实施审计工作的基础上，对财务报告内部控制的有效性发表审计 意见，并对注意到的非财务报告内部控制的重大缺陷进行披露。 三、 内部控制的固有局限性 内部控制审计报告（续） 中国 北京 徐未然 年 月 日 第 2 页，共 2 页 毕马威华振审字第 2404252 号 四、 财 ...