证券研究报告 | 2026年01月27日 电子行业周报 优于大市 缺货涨价从结构性到全面性，AI 算力+存力持续高景气 缺货涨价从结构性到全面性，AI 算力+存力持续高景气。过去一周上证上涨 0.84%，电子上涨 1.39%，子行业中光学光电子上涨 3.21%，消费电子下跌 0.69%。同期恒生科技、费城半导体、台湾资讯科技下跌 0.42%、上涨 0.38%、 上涨 1.88%。由于全球 AI 算力+存力持续高景气，对于产业链供应资源的抢 占日益突出，电子产业内缺货涨价的环节从 GPU、高端 PCB、存储芯片向被 动元件、CPU、模拟、功率等蔓延，"通胀"从结构性到全面性，对相关企 业的经营业绩增加了弹性预期。同时，基于今年 AI 手机、AI 眼镜、折叠屏 等端侧创新预期所有望引致的估值扩张，我们维持对于 2026 年是"从星星 之火到全面燎原的本土硬科技收获之年"的乐观判断，继续推荐自主可控（代 工+设备）、海外存力+算力链。推荐：蓝特光学、翱捷科技、德明利、江波 龙、佰维存储、长信科技、生益科技、蓝思科技、中芯国际、澜起科技。 阿里平头哥拟独立上市，国产算力芯片快速发展。1 月 22 日，根据《彭博社》 ...

产品涨价驱动 存储芯片公司业绩亮眼 行业高景气2026年仍将持续，全球厂商扩产忙 随着上市公司2025年度业绩预告进入高峰期，存储芯片产业链公司的盈利能力增长成为市场的一道风景 线。探究发现，存储芯片公司业绩增长的主要原因是，受AI及算力产业发展拉动，产业进入高景气周 期、产品持续涨价。 上海证券报记者采访获悉，从全球来看，2026年，存储芯片产业高景气仍将持续，涨价有望持续全年。 尤其是，在AI需求拉动下，HBM(高带宽内存)赛道高景气度有望延续至2028年。 抢抓景气周期机遇，存储相关上市公司也进入扩产周期。除了三星、美光等头部公司，佰维存储、江波 龙、德明利、兆易创新等A股公司也在积极扩产，普冉股份等则加快并购步伐以加码主业。 涨价是盈利提升主因 存储芯片产业链公司业绩高增长，主因是行业进入高景气周期、产品涨价。 佰维存储表示，从2025年第二季度开始，随着存储价格企稳回升，公司重点项目逐步交付，公司销售收 入和毛利率逐步回升，经营业绩逐步改善。德明利表示，从2025年第三季度起，受益于AI需求驱动， 存储行业景气度逐步回暖，存储价格进入上行通道，公司产品销售毛利率大幅提升，经营业绩显著改 善。 从行业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The profitability growth of storage chip companies is driven by the booming AI and computing industries, leading to a high prosperity cycle and continuous price increases in products [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - As of January 27, 2025, 34 storage concept companies in A-shares have released performance forecasts, with 19 companies achieving profitability, and 17 companies showing year-on-year profit growth, representing a 50% success rate [2] - Notably, 8 companies have projected profit growth exceeding 100%, with Baiwei Storage leading the growth [2] - Baiwei Storage expects revenue of 10 billion to 12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.36% to 79.23%, and net profit of 850 million to 1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 427.19% to 520.22% [2] Group 2: Price Increases - The primary reason for the high growth in the storage chip industry is the entry into a high prosperity cycle and product price increases [4] - Baiwei Storage indicated that from Q2 2025, as storage prices stabilize and rise, the company's sales revenue and gross margin will gradually improve [4] - The global storage industry began to rebound from Q2 2025, with major manufacturers like SanDisk initiating price increases, followed by others like Samsung and Micron [4] Group 3: Future Trends - The core factors behind the current price increases in storage chips are the explosive demand from AI and supply contractions, leading to structural supply-demand mismatches [5] - Industry experts predict that the core cycle of rising storage prices will last until the end of 2026, with high prosperity expected to continue at least until 2027 [5] Group 4: Expansion Strategies - Companies are actively expanding production to seize opportunities during the high prosperity cycle [6] - International manufacturers are focusing on expanding HBM and high-end NAND production capacities, with plans to gradually release these capacities from 2026 to 2028 [6] - Domestic manufacturers like Yangtze Memory and Changxin Technology are also accelerating their production expansion and technological upgrades [6] Group 5: Specific Company Actions - De Ming Li plans to raise no more than 3.2 billion yuan for SSD and DRAM expansion projects and to support its smart storage management and R&D headquarters [7] - Pu Ran Co. is enhancing its core competitiveness in the storage chip field through the acquisition of Noah Chang Tian, which allows it to take over SK Hynix's 2D NAND-related business [7]

Core Insights - The storage chip industry is experiencing significant profitability growth driven by the demand from AI and computing sectors, leading to a high prosperity cycle and continuous product price increases [1] - The high prosperity in the storage chip industry is expected to persist into 2026, with price increases anticipated throughout the year, particularly in the HBM segment, which may remain robust until 2028 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - As of January 27, 2025, 34 storage concept companies in the A-share market have released performance forecasts, with 19 companies reporting profitability, and 17 companies showing year-on-year profit growth, indicating a 50% success rate [2] - Among these, Bawei Storage is leading with an expected revenue of 10 billion to 12 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 49.36% to 79.23%, and a projected net profit of 850 million to 1 billion yuan, reflecting a staggering growth of 427.19% to 520.22% [2] - Leading companies like Demingli and Zhaoyi Innovation are also reporting strong performance, with Demingli forecasting revenues of 10.3 billion to 11.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 115.82% to 136.77%, and net profits of 650 million to 800 million yuan, up by 85.42% to 128.21% [2] Group 2: Industry Trends - The primary driver of the high growth in the storage chip industry is the entry into a high prosperity cycle and product price increases, with companies like Bawei Storage and Demingli reporting improvements in sales revenue and gross margins due to stabilizing storage prices [4] - The global storage industry began to rebound from the second quarter of 2025, with major manufacturers like SanDisk initiating price increases, followed by others such as Samsung and Micron [4] - The current price increase cycle is attributed to a structural supply-demand mismatch caused by an explosion in AI demand and supply constraints, with expectations that the price increase cycle will last until the end of 2026 and high prosperity until at least 2027 [5] Group 3: Expansion Strategies - In response to the ongoing high prosperity and rising product prices, storage companies are announcing expansion plans to capitalize on the industry cycle [6] - International manufacturers are focusing on expanding HBM and high-end NAND production capacities, with companies like Kioxia planning to double its NAND capacity over the next five years to meet growing AI data center demands [6] - Domestic companies such as Yangtze Memory Technologies and Changxin Memory Technologies are also ramping up production, with Bawei Storage and Demingli pursuing capital increases for expansion projects [7]

Core Viewpoint - The storage chip industry is experiencing significant growth driven by AI demand and rising product prices, leading to a high profitability forecast for various companies in the sector [1][5][6]. Group 1: Company Performance Forecasts - Baiwei Storage expects a net profit of 8.5 billion to 10 billion, representing a growth of 427.19% to 520.22% [1][3]. - Demingli anticipates a net profit of 6.5 billion to 8 billion, with a growth rate of 85.42% to 128.21% [3][4]. - 34 storage concept companies have released 2025 performance forecasts, with 19 companies showing profit growth, indicating a 50% success rate [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Drivers - The storage chip industry is projected to maintain high profitability through 2026, particularly in the HBM segment, driven by AI demand [2][6]. - The price increase in storage products is attributed to a high demand from AI applications and a supply contraction, leading to a structural supply-demand mismatch [6][7]. - Major companies like Samsung and Micron are expanding production capacities to meet the growing demand, with specific plans to increase DRAM and NAND production [7][8]. Group 3: Expansion and Investment Strategies - Domestic companies such as Changjiang Storage and Changxin Technology are ramping up capital expenditures and production capacity to capitalize on the industry's growth [2][7]. - Baiwei Storage and Demingli are actively pursuing expansion through fundraising and mergers to enhance their core competencies in the storage chip market [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronics industry [1][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights a transition from structural shortages and price increases to a more widespread inflation across the electronics industry, driven by sustained high demand for AI computing and storage capabilities [1]. - It emphasizes the optimistic outlook for 2026 as a year of significant growth in domestic hard technology, driven by innovations in AI smartphones, AI glasses, and foldable screens [1]. - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in self-controllable manufacturing and the overseas supply chain for storage and computing [1]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, while the electronics sector increased by 1.39% over the past week, with optical electronics up by 3.21% and consumer electronics down by 0.69% [1][13]. - Global AI computing and storage demand continues to drive resource competition within the supply chain, leading to price increases across various components [1]. Semiconductor Developments - Alibaba's AI chip subsidiary, Pingtouge, is preparing for an independent IPO, indicating a strong trend towards domestic alternatives in computing chips [2]. - The report expresses confidence in the growth of domestic GPU and ASIC companies, such as Cambricon and Aojie Technology [2]. Storage Market Dynamics - NAND Flash prices have risen by 18% and DRAM prices by 33% in the past month, leading to increased cost proportions for PC manufacturers [3]. - Companies like Demingli and Jiangbolong are expected to see significant profit growth due to the ongoing storage cycle [3]. PCB Industry Insights - The report notes that rising raw material prices and increasing demand are positively impacting the performance of PCB upstream manufacturers [4]. - Companies such as Shenghong Technology and Jinan Guojiji are highlighted for their strong performance and market expectations [4]. Key Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies across different segments, including: - Optical Electronics: Lantech Optical, Aojie Technology, and others [1]. - Storage: Demingli, Jiangbolong, and others [3]. - PCB: Shengyi Technology and others [4]. - A focus on semiconductor companies like SMIC and Aojie Technology is also advised [9].

回顾上周，A股市场整体呈现震荡分化格局，主要指数表现不一，热点板块轮动活跃。展望后市，机构 普遍持乐观态度，认为市场有望震荡上行。目前正值上市公司2025年业绩预告密集披露期，业绩高增长 领域有望成为后续市场关注的焦点。 结合机构统计数据，截至1月25日，A股已有超过950家公司披露了2025年业绩预告，其中业绩向好的公 司占比在四成左右。分行业来看，与人工智能高度相关的半导体产业链公司2025年业绩整体表现亮眼。 医药行业公司约有五成业绩预喜，呈现结构性分化格局。此外，金融投资报记者注意到，银行板块中已 有8家公司披露业绩快报，归母净利润同比均实现增长。 半导体产业链公司业绩爆发 受人工智能、数据中心建设及国产替代需求拉动，半导体产业链上市公司2025年业绩整体呈现强劲增长 态势。特别是在存储芯片、设备及材料领域，多家公司净利润同比翻倍。 中微半导1月25日公告称，经财务部门初步测算，预计公司2025年实现营业收入11.22亿元左右，同比增 长约23%；归母净利润2.84亿元，同比增长约107%。 炬芯科技1月25日公告称，预计2025年实现营业收入9.22亿元，同比增长41.44%；归母净利润2.04亿 ...

银河证券称，三星电子作为NAND市场份额排名第一的企业，采取大幅涨价的定价策略，显示出头部厂 商在卖方市场中的强大议价能力，凸显了当前半导体市场严重的供需失衡现状。此前，市场调研机构 TrendForce曾预测去年第四季度NAND价格涨幅为33%至38%，并预计今年第一季度将维持类似涨幅。 然而，实际的市场执行价格完全打破了这一预测。 对于当前存储价格的持续上涨，佰维存储在接受投资者调研时表示，从当前来看，存储产品价格在2026 年第一季度、第二季度有望持续上涨。同样，1月26日，东芯股份在投资者交流活动中披露，公司涉及 的存储产品，目前均处于价格上涨的通道，呈现持续向好的态势。 1月27日，A股市场三大指数集体低开，概念板块中培育钻石、CPO、芯片等概念全线大涨，其中存储 板块表现亮眼。 截至记者发稿时，数据显示，存储芯片概念板块指数涨近2%。个股中，东芯股份股价"20CM"涨停，总 市值达677.7亿元，股价创上市以来新高；协创数据（300857）大涨超8%，总市值达793.4亿元；精智达 涨超7%，总市值达282.3亿元，股价亦创下上市以来的新高；此外，普冉股份涨幅逼近16%，股价月内 累计涨幅已超10 ...

1月26日，德明利跌1.40%，成交额28.03亿元。两融数据显示，当日德明利获融资买入额3.02亿元，融 资偿还3.20亿元，融资净买入-1832.79万元。截至1月26日，德明利融资融券余额合计41.55亿元。 融资方面，德明利当日融资买入3.02亿元。当前融资余额41.45亿元，占流通市值的6.78%，融资余额超 过近一年90%分位水平，处于高位。 融券方面，德明利1月26日融券偿还1375.00股，融券卖出600.00股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额16.49 万元；融券余量3.34万股，融券余额916.65万元，超过近一年90%分位水平，处于高位。 资料显示，深圳市德明利技术股份有限公司位于广东省深圳市福田区梅林街道梅都社区中康路136号深 圳新一代产业园1栋A座2501、2401，成立日期2008年11月20日，上市日期2022年7月1日，公司主营业 务涉及闪存主控芯片设计、研发,存储模组产品应用方案的开发、优化,以及存储模组产品的销售。主营 业务收入构成为：嵌入式存储类产品41.37%，固态硬盘类产品37.34%，移动存储类产品13.06%，内存 条类产品8.22%，其他0.01%。 截至1月20 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a "steady rise" from January 19 to 23, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.84% to reach 4100 points, marking a new high since 2015 [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index rose by 1.11% and 2.62%, respectively, indicating a trend of "moderate index growth and accelerated capital inflow" [2] - The core driving force behind this market rally is identified as a combination of "policy support, capital inflow, and industrial trends" [2] Sector Performance - Cyclical and technology stocks acted as "dual drivers," with sectors such as building materials, steel, and chemicals seeing gains of over 5% [2] - Commercial aerospace concept stocks led the market due to favorable industry developments, while banking and non-bank financial sectors experienced declines [2] Policy and Regulation - The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Asset Management Association of China jointly released performance benchmark guidelines aimed at addressing issues like "style drift" and "fund blind boxes," marking the beginning of a reshaping of the public fund ecosystem [2] Investment Trends - Institutional research focused on three main areas: commercial aerospace, metal mining, and storage chips, with significant interest in companies like Daikin Heavy Industries and Naipu Mining [3] - The MSCI Metals and Mining Index has surged nearly 90% year-to-date, driven by soaring global metal demand and tightening supply of key minerals [3] - Gold prices are projected to rise further, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a price of $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026, indicating an 8% upside from current levels [3] Commercial Aerospace Developments - The commercial aerospace sector saw a resurgence after a volatile January, with significant domestic and international positive developments [4] - The financing total for the industry is expected to reach 18.6 billion yuan in 2025, a 32% year-on-year increase, as multiple companies initiate their IPO processes [4] - The global satellite count exceeds 12,000, with China's commercial aerospace sector aiming to capture technological transformation opportunities through "new space infrastructure" [4] Market Outlook - Institutions generally expect a "slow bull" market to continue, although caution is advised regarding short-term valuation correction risks [4] - Analysts predict that the A-share market will maintain a trend of oscillating upward, with accelerated sector rotation focusing on cyclical recovery and hard technology growth [4]