证券研究报告·公司点评报告·家电零部件Ⅱ 三花智控（002050） 2025 年业绩预告点评：业绩略超市场预期， 机器人量产在即 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 24,558 | 27,947 | 33,505 | 40,056 | 50,683 | | 同比（%） | 15.04 | 13.80 | 19.89 | 19.55 | 26.53 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,921 | 3,099 | 4,210 | 5,093 | 6,794 | | 同比（%） | 13.51 | 6.10 | 35.85 | 20.98 | 33.39 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.69 | 0.74 | 1.00 | 1.21 | 1.61 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 65.43 | 61.67 | 45.40 | 37.52 | 28.13 | [Table_Tag] [T ...

Summary of Sanhua Intelligent Controls Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Sanhua Intelligent Controls (002050.SZ) - **Industry**: HVAC control and thermal management components Key Financial Highlights - **FY25 Pre-announcement**: Sanhua expects net income between Rmb3,874 million and Rmb4,649 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 25%-50% [1] - **4Q25 Net Profit**: Expected to be between Rmb634 million and Rmb1,406 million, indicating a year-over-year change of -21% to +76% [1] Growth Expectations - **Growth Moderation**: Anticipated growth moderation in the main business for the next two quarters, with a stable outlook for FY26 [2] - **HVAC Segment**: Continued growth pressure expected due to a high base, but potential improvement anticipated in 2026 due to likely trade-in policy extensions [5] - **EV Component Segment**: Revenue growth forecast remains unchanged at +12% for 4Q25, +12% for 1Q26, and +15% for 2Q26 [5] Customer Insights - **Tesla**: Represents approximately 25%-30% of the EV component segment revenue, with 4Q25 delivery forecast at 445K units, a 10% year-over-year decline [5] - **BYD**: Accounts for about 15%-20% of segment revenue; management expresses confidence in long-term overseas expansion despite demand uncertainty in China [5] Valuation and Price Target - **Target Price**: Rmb40.90 for Sanhua A shares and HK$43.10 for Sanhua H shares, based on a 2030E P/E of 25x, discounted back to 2026E with a cost of equity of 9.5% [9] - **Current Share Prices**: Rmb45.42 for Sanhua A and HK$35.42 for Sanhua H, indicating a downside of 10% for A shares and an upside of 21.7% for H shares [12] Investment Thesis - **Growth Potential**: Expected revenue and net profit CAGR of 18% from 2025 to 2030 [11] - **Market Position**: Strong position in HVAC and potential growth in humanoid robot actuators [11] - **Risks**: Key risks include slower-than-expected revenue from humanoid robots, global EV sales, and home appliance sales [10][11] Additional Insights - **Valuation Comparison**: Sanhua H shares have seen a price movement of -14% compared to the Hang Seng Index, while A shares have moved -9% compared to the CSI300 [8] - **Tesla Optimus Gen3**: Performance of this product is crucial for further upside in share price, with the next performance check expected in February/March 2026 [8] Conclusion Sanhua Intelligent Controls is positioned for growth in the HVAC and EV segments, with a stable outlook for FY26 despite anticipated short-term growth moderation. The company’s valuation appears attractive relative to its growth potential, but risks remain that could impact future performance.

Group 1 - Kangnibei Group plans to transfer up to 5,065,900 shares, representing no more than 2% of the total share capital, to its controlling shareholder, Zhejiang Pharmaceutical Group, through a block trade [1] - Guiguan Network elected Dai Qingsong as the chairman of the fifth board of directors, who will also act as the general manager [2] - Huayin Technology's shareholders plan to transfer a total of 10,725,600 shares, accounting for 3.93% of the total share capital [3] Group 2 - Wireless Media's subsidiary won a bid for an AI-enabled media platform project with a contract amount of 4.8895 million yuan [4] - Chaosheng Electronics plans to invest 1.008 billion yuan in a high-performance HDI circuit board expansion and upgrade project, aiming to increase production capacity by 240,000 square meters annually [5] - Yingfeng Co., Ltd. disclosed a plan to raise no more than 522 million yuan through a private placement for various projects [6] Group 3 - Yongtai Technology's executives plan to collectively increase their holdings by no less than 5 million yuan without a price range [7] - Guangdong Construction's subsidiary's wind power project has successfully connected its first unit to the grid, contributing to a total installed capacity of 5,094.52 MW [8] - *ST Jiaotou was selected as the first candidate for a sewage treatment plant project with an estimated contract value of 128 million yuan [9] Group 4 - Sanhua Intelligent Control expects a net profit of 3.874 billion to 4.649 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 25% to 50% [10] - Aolian Electronics is planning a change in control, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock [11] - ST Zhengtong will resume trading on December 24 after lifting risk warnings and changing its stock name [12] Group 5 - China Nonferrous Metal Industry's subsidiary acquired a 99.9004% stake in Raura Company for 106 million USD, which includes a zinc polymetallic mine in Peru [13] - Xusheng Group's actual controller will change to the Guangzhou Municipal Government, with stock resuming trading [14] - Hualian Holdings plans to acquire 100% of Argentum Lithium S.A. for approximately 1.75 billion USD [15] Group 6 - Yichang Technology is planning a change in control, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock [16] - Runyang Technology's controlling shareholder intends to transfer 5% of the company's shares at a price of 30.08 yuan per share [17] - Hongqi Chain's shareholder, Yonghui Supermarket, plans to reduce its holdings by up to 3% [18][19] Group 7 - Jiaojian Co., Ltd.'s actual controller is under criminal investigation, but the company's control has not changed [20][29] - Tianji Technology is facing a lawsuit for alleged collusion in bidding [21] - Yuehai Feed's controlling shareholder plans to reduce its holdings by up to 3% [22][23] Group 8 - Bojie Co., Ltd. plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.94 yuan per 10 shares for the 2025 interim period [24] - Dongjiang Environmental plans to invest up to 12 million yuan in a capital increase for a technology company [25] - Taiankang's product received a drug registration certificate for a combination treatment for benign prostatic hyperplasia [26] Group 9 - Lingyun Optical plans to invest up to 5 million USD in a cornerstone investment for an IPO [27] - Canar Co., Ltd. intends to acquire 70% of Jiangxi Fenglin for 21 million yuan [28] - Enjie Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary received a government subsidy of 20 million yuan, accounting for 3.6% of the latest audited net profit [34] Group 10 - China Nuclear Construction plans to introduce investors for a total capital increase of 5 billion yuan, maintaining control over its subsidiaries [35] - Xinzhu Co., Ltd. signed a framework cooperation agreement for an integrated energy project in Tibet [36] - Beibo Co., Ltd. plans to establish a holding subsidiary focused on high-temperature industrial equipment [37] Group 11 - Emei Mountain A plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary for tea industry integration with an investment of 10 million yuan [38] - Tianpu Co., Ltd. confirmed the results of a tender offer, with a total of 201 shares accepted [39] - *ST Dongtong's stock will be delisted, entering a 15-day delisting period [40] Group 12 - Zhuoran Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary signed a significant order worth 4.033 billion yuan for a project, representing 142.09% of the company's expected revenue for 2024 [41]

Core Viewpoint - Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050) experienced a significant drop in stock price, falling over 5% during trading, with a current price of 33.84 HKD and a trading volume of 876 million HKD. The stock faced a cornerstone lock-up expiration on December 23, releasing approximately 196 million shares from 17 shareholders [1]. Financial Performance - The company released a profit forecast for 2025, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 3.874 billion to 4.649 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 25% to 50%. The net profit after excluding non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be around 3.679 billion to 4.615 billion CNY, indicating a year-on-year increase of 18% to 48% [1]. Business Segments - The company aims to consolidate its leading position in the refrigeration and air conditioning components sector by leveraging market demand growth opportunities and its technological and production scale advantages for sustained business growth. Additionally, it is expanding its automotive components business through its leading position in the new energy vehicle thermal management sector and exemplary customer effects, which are expected to drive steady growth in quality orders [1].

Core Viewpoint - Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050) experienced a decline of over 5% during trading, with a current drop of 4.46%, priced at HKD 33.84, and a trading volume of HKD 876 million [1] Group 1: Stock Unlocking and Performance Forecast - On December 23, Sanhua Intelligent Control officially faced the unlocking of cornerstone shares, with 17 shareholders involved, totaling approximately 196 million shares unlocked [1] - The company released a performance forecast for 2025, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately RMB 3.874 billion to RMB 4.649 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 25% to 50% [1] - The forecasted net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is expected to be around RMB 3.679 billion to RMB 4.615 billion, indicating a year-on-year increase of 18% to 48% [1] Group 2: Business Growth and Market Position - The announcement highlighted the company's consolidation of its leading position in the refrigeration and air conditioning components sector, capitalizing on market demand growth opportunities [1] - The company aims to achieve sustained business growth through technological accumulation and advantages in large-scale production [1] - In the automotive components sector, the company is expanding quality orders driven by its leading position in the thermal management field for new energy vehicles and the demonstration effect of benchmark customers [1] - The synergy between the two major segments is expected to support overall performance growth for the year [1]

相关产品：机器人ETF易方达（159530），联接A/C（020972/020973） 跟踪国证机器人产业指数，人形机器人权重占比高于同类指数，新指数成份股调整已于12月15日生效。 截至2025年12月22日，机器人ETF易方达为跟踪国证机器人产业指数中规模最大的ETF产品，规模达到 126.79亿元，具备充足的流动性。 事件：12月22日，人形机器人厂商三花智控发布业绩预告，表现亮眼。公司预告2025年实现归母净利润 38.7亿元-46.5亿元，同比增长25%-50%；扣非净利润36.8亿元-46.1亿元，同比增长18%-48%。 影响机构解读：三花智控业绩预告实现大幅增长，彰显公司综合实力与成长韧性。公司在人形机器人领 域的技术布局或具备产业潜力，而国证机器人产业指数是全市场唯一纳入该龙头标的的机器人主题指 数。随着人形机器人产业链价值逐步释放，叠加指数成份股调整后的产业聚焦度提升，国证机器人产业 指数对人形机器人核心资产的覆盖优势进一步凸显，或可为投资者布局人形机器人领域提供优质工具。 ...

Group 1 - Xusheng Group's actual controller has changed to the Guangzhou Municipal Government, with stock resuming trading on December 23, 2025 [1] - Lingyun Light plans to invest up to $5 million in the IPO of Zhipu Hong Kong as a cornerstone investor [1] - Ningbo Huaxiang's subsidiary has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Dahuan Robotics to enhance collaboration in the development of dexterous hands [2] Group 2 - Hualian Holdings intends to acquire 100% of the Canadian company Argentum Lithium S.A. for $175 million, which is approximately 1.235 billion yuan [3] - Shiyuan Zhaoye plans to raise no more than 550 million yuan through a convertible bond issuance for the Zhuhai Shiyuan Jingguan Garden project [4] - ST Quanwei and its subsidiary are involved in a civil mediation agreement involving 69.0158 million yuan [4] Group 3 - Jiao Jian Co.'s actual controller has been subjected to criminal coercive measures, but the company's control has not changed [5] - Tianji Technology is facing a lawsuit for alleged collusion in bidding, but its operations remain normal [5] - Jinpan Technology plans to issue 1.672 billion yuan in convertible bonds for data center power modules and other projects [5] Group 4 - Hongqi Chain's shareholder Yonghui Supermarket plans to reduce its stake by up to 3% [6] - Shuangqiang Technology's director did not implement a planned share reduction [7] - Zhuoran Co.'s subsidiary has signed a significant order worth 4.033 billion yuan [8] Group 5 - ST Zhitong's stock will have its risk warning lifted on December 24, 2025, with a change in trading limits [9] - Yingwei Co. plans to reduce its stake by up to 0.56% [10] - Huaxia Happiness's board rejected five temporary proposals from China Ping An Life Insurance [11] Group 6 - China Nonferrous Metals plans to acquire 99.9% of Raura Company for $106 million [11] - Sanhua Intelligent Control expects a net profit of 3.874 billion to 4.649 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25% to 50% [11] - Chaoxun Communication received a government subsidy of 18.0455 million yuan [12] Group 7 - Jiangfeng Electronics plans to transfer 4% of Shanghai Runping's equity for 60 million yuan [12] - Dingyang Technology has launched a 20 GHz high-bandwidth digital oscilloscope [13] - Linyi Intelligent plans to acquire 35% of Dongguan Liminda Electronics for 875 million yuan [14] Group 8 - Trina Solar has sold its U.S. 5GW module factory to T1, receiving $100 million in cash and shares [14] - Aihua Packaging's major shareholder reduced its stake by 700,000 shares during the stock's abnormal fluctuation period [14] - China Merchants Bank has approved a comprehensive credit limit of 165 billion yuan for China Merchants Group [15] Group 9 - Lingwei Technology plans to acquire 70% of Jiangsu Huimai for 50.2 million yuan [16] - Yongding Co. is increasing its capital by 600 million yuan for its polysilicon subsidiary [19] - Zhong'an Technology's subsidiary is voluntarily extending its share lock-up period by six months [19] Group 10 - Xiangyu Medical's brain-computer interface products have entered over 500 top-tier hospitals, with a target of 700 by the Spring Festival [18] - Wenda Technology's major shareholder has terminated its share reduction plan [18] - Wenta Technology's major shareholder reduced its stake by 1.2097 million shares [18]

Market Performance - On December 22, 2025, the A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3917.36 points, up 0.69%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 13332.73 points, up 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index at 3191.98 points, up 2.23%. Over 2900 stocks rose, and the total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 130 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 0.43% at 25801.77 points and a total trading volume of 169.77 billion HKD. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.87% to 5526.83 points [1] - In the U.S. stock market, all three major indices continued to rise for three consecutive days, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.47% to 48362.68 points, the S&P 500 up 0.64% to 6878.49 points, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.52% to 23428.83 points [1] New Stock Listings - Xihua Technology, with stock code 603248, was listed at an issue price of 10.1 yuan per share and an earnings ratio of 33.12 times. The company specializes in the R&D, manufacturing, and sales of high-end equipment components, primarily focusing on wind power gearbox components [2] - Tian Su Measurement, with stock code 301449, was listed at an issue price of 36.8 yuan per share and an earnings ratio of 21.78 times. It is a national independent third-party measurement and testing service provider, serving various sectors including biomedicine, automotive, new energy, and rail transportation [2] Important News - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to trading limits for silver futures contracts, effective December 24, 2025. Non-futures company members and certain foreign participants will have a maximum daily opening position limit of 10,000 contracts for the AG2602 contract [3] - The Ministry of Commerce of China will implement temporary anti-subsidy measures on imported dairy products from the EU starting December 23, 2025, due to preliminary findings of subsidies causing substantial harm to the domestic dairy industry [3]

Group 1 - Huaxia Happiness's board rejected five temporary proposals from major shareholder Ping An Life, with a voting result of 1 in favor and 7 against [1] - The proposals were intended for discussion at the third temporary shareholders' meeting of Huaxia Happiness in 2025 [1] Group 2 - Bio Valley announced that its former actual controller and chairman Lin Yanhe was sentenced to three years in prison and fined 5 million yuan for breaching trust and harming the company's interests [2][5] - The court also sentenced former board secretary and financial director He Yuan to one and a half years in prison and fined 200,000 yuan [2] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China announced a one-time credit repair policy to support individuals with damaged credit who are actively repaying debts [7] - Individuals who repay overdue debts of up to 10,000 yuan by March 31, 2026, will have their overdue information not displayed in the financial credit information database [7] Group 4 - The Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Commission announced a plan to support the research and development of new food technologies, including alternative proteins and 3D-printed foods, from 2026 to 2030 [14] - The initiative aims to meet diverse food consumption needs and promote sustainable development [14] Group 5 - Xiangyu Medical reported that its brain-computer interface products have entered over 500 top-tier hospitals, with plans to expand to 700 by the Spring Festival and 1,500 by next year [24] - The company anticipates rapid growth in sales revenue from these products in 2026 [24] Group 6 - Geely Automobile announced the completion of the privatization and merger of Zeekr Intelligent Technology, making it a wholly-owned subsidiary [23] - Zeekr has been delisted from the New York Stock Exchange following the merger [23] Group 7 - China Nuclear Engineering announced that its subsidiaries will introduce 5 billion yuan in investment through a non-public agreement to implement market-oriented debt-to-equity swaps [32] - The funds will be used to repay financial institution loans while maintaining actual control over the subsidiaries [32]

Group 1 - The actual controller of Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism, Yu Faxiang, has been subjected to criminal coercive measures due to suspected criminal activities, but the company's control has not changed and operations remain normal [2] - The actual controller of Jiaojian Co., Yu Faxiang, is also facing criminal coercive measures, with no impact on the company's operations or control [3] - Huaxia Happiness's board rejected five temporary proposals from China Ping An Life Insurance for the upcoming shareholder meeting, citing legal violations and conflicts with company matters [4] Group 2 - Hualian Holdings plans to acquire 100% of Argentum Lithium S.A. for approximately 1.75 billion USD (12.35 billion RMB), aiming to gain 80% interest in the Arizaro project located in Argentina [5] - Tianji Technology is facing a lawsuit for alleged collusion in bidding, but the company reports that operations are normal and the event has not significantly impacted it [6] - Jinpan Technology intends to issue convertible bonds totaling 1.672 billion RMB to fund projects related to data center power modules and energy-efficient equipment [7] Group 3 - Xusheng Group's actual controller is changing to Guangzhou Municipal Government, with stock resuming trading on December 23, 2025, after a share transfer agreement [8][9] - Lingyi Zhizao plans to acquire 35% of Limin Da for 875 million RMB, gaining control over 52.78% of the voting rights in the company [10] - Vanke A has extended the grace period for the repayment of its mid-term notes from 5 working days to 30 trading days, with no penalties during this period [11] Group 4 - Tianpu Co. has completed a tender offer, resulting in a total control of 68.29% of the shares, with stock resuming trading on December 23, 2025 [12] - Chuangshi Technology's actual controller is under investigation and has been subjected to detention measures, but has resigned from all positions within the company [13] Group 5 - Sanhua Intelligent Controls expects a net profit of 3.874 billion to 4.649 billion RMB for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 25% to 50% [15] - Dong'a Ejiao plans to repurchase shares worth 100 to 200 million RMB, with the repurchased shares to be canceled and registered capital reduced [17] Group 6 - Hongqi Chain's major shareholder, Yonghui Supermarket, plans to reduce its stake by up to 3% [20] - Yingwei Ke's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 0.56% [21] - Tianyin Electromechanical's director plans to reduce his holdings by up to 155.81 million shares [22] Group 7 - Zhuoran Co.'s subsidiary has signed a significant order worth 4.033 billion RMB for a project in Inner Mongolia [24] - Nacronor has signed a procurement contract worth 301 million RMB with a leading domestic customer [25]