[Table_ReportInfo] 2026 年 02 月 26 日 证券研究报告•金融工程报告 机器学习金融工程月报 机器学习因子选股月报（2026 年 3 月） 截至 2026年 2月 25日，2月当期多头组合超额收益最高的五个行业（除综合） 分别为石油石化、通信、电子、有色金属、计算机，多头组合相对行业指数超 额收益分别为 7.91%、3.11%、3.06%、2.78%以及 2.78%。 [Table_Summary] GAN_GRU 因子：基于前期报告《量价时序特征挖掘模型在深度学习因子中 的应用》（2024年 7月 11日）中提到的 GAN_GRU模型，定期更新 GAN_GRU 因子自 2024年以来表现情况。其中 GAN_GRU因子为利用生成式对抗神经网 络 GAN 模型进行量价时序特征处理后再利用 GRU 模型进行时序特征编码得 到的选股因子。 表现跟踪：自 2019 年 2月至 2026 年 2月，月频调仓的基础上，GAN_GRU 因子在全 A 范围内 IC均值 0.1096***，多头组合年化超额收益率 22.32%；截 至 2026年 2月 25日，GAN_GRU 最新一期 IC为-0. ...

南方中证1000ETF（512100）成立日期2016年9月29日，最新规模789.96亿。今年以来收益9.26%，同类 排名1426/5570；近一年收益30.14%，同类排名1888/4305；成立以来收益24.96%。 南方中证1000ETF（512100）基金经理为崔蕾。 2月25日，沙钢股份涨5.05%，截至发稿，报5.83元/股，成交2.23亿元，换手率1.78%，总市值127.90亿 元。 资料显示，江苏沙钢股份有限公司位于江苏省张家港市锦丰镇沙钢大厦，成立日期1999年9月28日，上 市日期2006年10月25日，公司主营业务涉及黑色金属冶炼及压延加工优特钢的生产与销售。主营业务收 入构成为：钢材、钢坯销售93.25%，其他销售6.75%。 从沙钢股份十大流通股东角度 数据显示，南方基金旗下1只基金位居沙钢股份十大流通股东。南方中证1000ETF（512100）三季度减 持15.51万股，持有股数1605.71万股，占流通股的比例为0.73%。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约449.6万 元。 截至发稿，崔蕾累计任职时间7年112天，现任基金资产总规模1370.2亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 250.6 ...

Market Performance - The steel sector declined by 3.02% this week, underperforming the broader market, with sub-sectors such as special steel down 2.10%, long products down 1.88%, and flat products down 3.84% [2][5] - Iron ore and steel consumables sectors also saw declines of 1.74% and 3.02% respectively, while the trade circulation sector fell by 4.006% [2][5] Supply Situation - As of February 6, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in sample steel enterprises was 85.7%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points week-on-week [2] - Electric furnace capacity utilization was at 48.1%, a decrease of 7.59 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The production of five major steel products was 7.208 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 15,500 tons [2] - Daily average pig iron production was 2.2858 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons week-on-week and 1,400 tons year-on-year [5] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products was 7.607 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 410,800 tons, or 5.12% [2] - Mainstream traders' sales volume of construction steel was 35,000 tons, down 32,500 tons week-on-week, representing a 48.24% decline [2] Inventory Situation - As of February 6, social inventory of five major steel products was 9.404 million tons, an increase of 496,800 tons week-on-week, or 5.58%, but down 18.04% year-on-year [3][5] - Factory inventory of five major steel products was 3.973 million tons, an increase of 95,600 tons week-on-week, or 2.47%, and down 24.13% year-on-year [3][5] Steel Prices & Profits - As of February 6, the comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,414.2 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 13.31 yuan/ton, or 0.39%, and down 5.51% year-on-year [3] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,582.0 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.28 yuan/ton, or 0.03%, and down 2.88% year-on-year [3] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, or 27.45% [3] - The profit for construction steel from electric furnaces was -76 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, or 5.00% [3] Raw Material Situation - As of February 6, the spot price index for Australian powder ore (62% Fe) at Rizhao Port was 764 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 29.0 yuan/ton, or 3.66% [4] - The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,700 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 80.0 yuan/ton [4] - The average available days of iron ore for sample steel enterprises was 31.29 days, an increase of 2.6 days week-on-week [4] Investment Recommendations - The steel sector is expected to have strong "anti-involution" characteristics and significant profit recovery potential, with high-quality steel companies likely to see performance improvements [6][7] - Key companies to focus on include regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as those benefiting from the new energy cycle [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Bullish" [2]. Report's Core View - The current inventory accumulation pressure of the five major steel products is relatively limited, with the overall inventory at a relatively low level in history and the inventory accumulation speed slower than in previous years. Coupled with the supply support formed by the potential slight contraction of local production capacity due to recent safety inspections, the steel inventory pressure is limited. Currently, the profit per ton of general steel is considerable. Against the backdrop of the industry's "anti - involution," the performance improvement space of general steel companies is large, and they are expected to experience value restoration. The steel sector is also expected to present an opportunity for allocation. Based on the judgment of the steel industry cycle, the steel sector has strong "anti - involution" attributes and a large profit restoration space. High - quality steel enterprises have excellent upward elasticity brought about by the gradual restoration of performance and the room for the sector's valuation to rise due to the improvement of the supply pattern. The sector still has medium - to - long - term strategic investment opportunities, so the "Bullish" rating for the industry is maintained [2][3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. This Week's Performance of the Steel Sector and Individual Stocks - The steel sector fell 3.02% this week, underperforming the broader market. The CSI 300 fell 1.33% to 4643.60. The top three sectors in terms of gains and losses were food and beverage (4.44%), textile and apparel (2.23%), and banking (2.09%) [10]. - The special steel sector fell 2.10%, the long - product sector fell 1.88%, the plate sector fell 3.84%, the iron ore sector fell 1.74%, the steel consumables sector fell 3.02%, and the trade and distribution sector fell 4.006% [2][13][17]. - The top three stocks in the steel sector in terms of gains and losses were Boyun New Materials (9.79%), Dazhong Mining (5.92%), and Shengde Xintai (4.72%) [15]. 2. This Week's Core Data Supply - As of February 6, the daily average hot metal output was 228.58 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.60 million tons (0.26%) and a year - on - year increase of 0.06% [25]. - As of February 6, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of sample steel enterprises was 85.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 percentage points [25]. - As of February 6, the electric furnace capacity utilization rate of sample steel enterprises was 48.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.59 percentage points [25]. - As of February 6, the output of the five major steel products was 720.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.55 million tons (0.21%) [25]. Demand - As of February 6, the consumption of the five major steel products was 760.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41.08 million tons (5.12%) [35]. - As of February 6, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream trading companies was 3.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.25 million tons (48.24%) [35]. - As of February 1, 2026, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.655 million square meters, a week - on - week increase of 226,000 square meters [35]. - As of February 8, the net financing amount of local government special bonds was 1.0851 trillion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 121.74% [35]. Inventory - As of February 6, the social inventory of the five major steel products was 940.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49.68 million tons (5.58%) and a year - on - year decrease of 18.04% [43]. - As of February 6, the in - plant inventory of the five major steel products was 397.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.56 million tons (2.47%) and a year - on - year decrease of 24.13% [43]. Steel Prices - As of February 6, the general steel composite index was 3414.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 13.31 yuan/ton (0.39%) and a year - on - year decrease of 5.51% [49]. - As of February 6, the special steel composite index was 6582.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.28 yuan/ton (0.03%) and a year - on - year decrease of 2.88% [49]. Steel Mill Profits - As of January 30, the national average hot metal cost was 2396 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12.0 yuan/ton [57]. - As of February 6, the profit per ton of construction steel electric furnace at normal electricity price was - 76 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.0 yuan/ton (5.00%) [57]. - As of February 6, the profit per ton of blast furnace for rebar was 65 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14.0 yuan/ton (27.45%) [57]. - As of February 6, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 39.39%, unchanged from the previous week [57]. Futures - Spot Basis - As of February 6, the spot basis of hot - rolled coils was - 1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17.0 yuan/ton [65]. - As of February 6, the spot basis of rebar was 143 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21.0 yuan/ton [65]. - As of February 6, the spot basis of coke was - 117 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18.0 yuan/ton [65]. - As of February 6, the spot basis of coking coal was 73.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21.5 yuan/ton [65]. - As of February 6, the spot basis of iron ore was 4.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.0 yuan/ton [65]. Raw Materials: Price & Profit - As of February 6, the spot price index of Australian powder ore in Rizhao Port (62% Fe) was 764 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29.0 yuan/ton [74]. - As of February 5, the ex - warehouse price of main coking coal in Jingtang Port was 1700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 80.0 yuan/ton [74]. - As of February 6, the ex - factory price of first - grade metallurgical coke was 1770 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [74]. - As of February 6, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 10 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45.0 yuan/ton [74]. - As of February 6, the price difference between hot metal and scrap steel was 66.3 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 51.9 yuan/ton [74]. 3. Valuation Table and Key Announcements of Listed Companies Valuation Table of Listed Companies - The table shows the closing prices, net profits attributable to parent companies, EPS, and P/E ratios of multiple listed steel companies from 2024 to 2027 [75]. Key Announcements of Listed Companies - Youfa Group plans to invest in establishing a wholly - owned subsidiary, Guangdong Youfa Pipe Industry Technology Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 500 million yuan [76]. - Hainan Mining is planning to acquire the control rights of Luoyang Fengrui Fluorine Industry Co., Ltd. through the issuance of shares and payment of cash and raise supporting funds. The company's stock has been suspended since January 29, 2026, with an expected suspension time of no more than 10 trading days [76]. - Hualing Steel has repurchased 56,023,339 shares as of January 31, 2026, accounting for 0.8109% of the total share capital, with a total transaction amount of 278,597,423.90 yuan [78]. - Anyang Iron and Steel expects a loss of about 460 million yuan in 2025, with a year - on - year reduction of about 85.94% in the loss amount. The net profit after deducting non - recurring gains and losses is expected to be about - 748 million yuan, with a year - on - year reduction of about 77.44% in the loss amount [78]. 4. This Week's Important Industry News - The new - home transactions in 10 major cities increased by 26.8% week - on - week, indicating a warming of real estate demand and having a marginal boost to the demand for construction steel [79]. - Indonesia has suspended the spot coal export due to the government's production cut plan, which may affect China's coal supply and be negative for steel prices [79]. - As of February 2, 23 listed steel companies have released their 2025 performance forecasts, with 12 in profit and 11 in loss [79]. - In January 2026, the sales volume of excavators in China was 18,708 units, a year - on - year increase of 49.5%, with domestic sales increasing by 61.4% and exports increasing by 40.5% [79].

沙钢股份（002075.SZ）2月5日在投资者互动平台表示，截至目前，公司产品尚未有销往欧盟等相关国 家和地区。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：公司产品获得多国认证，请问产品销往欧盟国家的收 入占比为多少？是否全部来源于境内经营主体直接销售？ ...

以上调整均为含税价，执行日期自2026年2月1日起。 中天钢铁 1月31日中天钢铁集团对建材品种出厂价格进行了调整，本次调整是以"1月20日中天钢铁集团出台2026 年1月下旬产品价格 "为基准，各品种调整如下： ①螺纹钢品种价格平 ，现HRB400材质Φ18mm规格执行价格3400元/吨；HRB400E加价30元/吨， Φ10mm加价160元/吨，Φ12mm加价100元/吨，Φ14mm加价30元/吨，Φ16mm、Φ20mm、 Φ22mm 加价 30元/吨 ，Φ25mm加价50元/吨， Φ28-32mm加价80元/吨；Φ36mm以上加价250元/吨；HRB500在 HRB400基础上加价300元/吨，HRB500E在HRB400基础上加价330元/吨。 ②高线品种价格平 ，现HPB300材质Φ8-12mm规格执行价格3700元/吨，Φ6mm加价150元/吨 ； 沙钢 2月1日沙钢对建筑钢材品种出厂价格进行了调整，"1月21日沙钢出台2026年1月下旬建材价格调整"为基 准，具体调整情况如下： ①螺纹钢价格暂稳，现HRB400Ф16-20mm螺纹出厂价格为3450元/吨，Φ10mm规格加价160元/吨， Φ12 ...

Market Overview - The special steel sector experienced a decline of 7.3% on February 2, with CITIC Special Steel leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] Stock Performance - CITIC Special Steel (000708) closed at 14.78, down 9.99% with a trading volume of 449,200 shares and a transaction value of 685 million yuan [1] - Fangda Special Steel (600507) closed at 5.93, down 8.49% with a trading volume of 752,300 shares [1] - Taiyuan Iron & Steel (000825) closed at 4.82, down 7.84% with a trading volume of 1,597,700 shares [1] - Other notable declines include Jiuli Special Materials (002318) down 5.80%, Shagang Group (002075) down 5.56%, and Xining Special Steel (600117) down 4.83% [1] Capital Flow - The special steel sector saw a net outflow of 60.03 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 102 million yuan [1] - However, there was a net inflow of 162 million yuan from speculative funds [1] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Taiyuan Iron & Steel (000825) had a main fund net inflow of 15.79 million yuan, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 37.95 million yuan [2] - Jiuli Special Materials (002318) recorded a main fund net inflow of 10.71 million yuan, with retail funds experiencing a net outflow of 29.56 million yuan [2] - Shagang Group (002075) had a main fund net inflow of 5.83 million yuan, but retail funds saw a significant net outflow of 54.47 million yuan [2] - CITIC Special Steel (000708) reported a main fund net outflow of 643,900 yuan, with a small net inflow from speculative funds [2]

Group 1 - As of January 31, 2025, 23 steel companies in the A-share market have disclosed performance forecasts, with approximately 78% expecting improved year-on-year results, including profit growth, turnaround from losses, or reduced losses [1] - Benxi Steel Plate Co., Ltd. forecasts a net loss of 3.83 billion yuan for 2025, a reduction in losses by 239.7 million yuan year-on-year [1] - Anshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. anticipates a net loss of about 4.08 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year reduction in losses of approximately 42.75% [1] - Five companies, including Liuzhou Steel Co., Ltd., expect to turn losses into profits in 2025, while five others, including Jiangsu Shagang Co., Ltd., forecast varying degrees of profit growth [1] Group 2 - The core drivers for the steel industry's transition from losses to profits in 2025 include cost advantages, supply discipline, and unexpected export growth, indicating a shift from a deep adjustment phase to a recovery phase [2] - The significant improvement in the overall operating conditions and profitability of the steel industry is attributed to multiple factors, including structural growth in steel demand driven by manufacturing upgrades, effective control of ineffective supply, and stable or declining raw material prices [2] - The ongoing supply-side structural reforms and implementation of industry regulations are promoting the exit of backward production capacity and facilitating the industry's transition to high-quality development [2] Group 3 - In 2025, China's crude steel production is projected to be 961 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%, while steel output is expected to reach 1.446 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [3] - China's steel exports are expected to reach a record high of 119 million tons in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [3] - The steel industry's development model is undergoing profound changes, characterized by "reduction in quantity and optimization of stock" as the industry moves towards a more sustainable growth model [3] Group 4 - Lingyuan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. emphasizes a focus on "reducing quantity and improving quality," aiming for intensive production and efficiency [4] - Benxi Steel Plate Co., Ltd. is committed to an efficiency-centered development approach, enhancing production efficiency and optimizing marketing channels to improve market competitiveness [4] - The industry is expected to transition towards high-end, green, and intelligent production, with accelerated exit of backward capacity and increased application of low-carbon technologies [4]

Market Overview - The special steel sector experienced a decline of 0.17% on January 30, with Fushun Special Steel leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.95, down 0.96%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14205.89, down 0.66% [1] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include: - CITIC Special Steel (000708) closed at 16.42, up 3.27% with a trading volume of 326,800 shares and a turnover of 531 million yuan [1] - Fangda Special Steel (600507) closed at 6.48, up 1.09% with a trading volume of 760,700 shares and a turnover of 494 million yuan [1] - Fushun Special Steel (6652009) closed at 6.54, down 4.11% with a trading volume of 1,332,900 shares and a turnover of 867.1 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The special steel sector saw a net outflow of 196 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 159 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for specific stocks includes: - Fangda Special Steel had a net inflow of 19.57 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - CITIC Special Steel experienced a net outflow of 21.09 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Shagang Co. (002075) had a net outflow of 5.42 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Market Overview - The special steel sector experienced a decline of 0.39% on January 29, with Changbao Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 0.3% [1] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances in the special steel sector include: - CITIC Special Steel (000708) closed at 15.90, up 1.47% with a trading volume of 265,300 shares and a turnover of 419 million yuan [1] - Fangda Special Steel (600507) closed at 6.41, up 0.94% with a trading volume of 678,000 shares and a turnover of 439 million yuan [1] - Fushun Special Steel (600399) closed at 6.82, up 0.44% with a trading volume of 1,043,200 shares and a turnover of 721 million yuan [1] - Changbao Co. (002478) closed at 9.82, down 4.01% with a trading volume of 541,800 shares and a turnover of 546 million yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The special steel sector saw a net outflow of 82.17 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 84.75 million yuan [2] - Detailed capital flow for selected stocks includes: - CITIC Special Steel had a net inflow of 47.09 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Changbao Co. experienced a net outflow of 21.95 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Retail investors contributed a net inflow of 50 million yuan to Changbao Co. [3]