Macro and Strategy - The fixed income investment strategy focuses on long-term bond wave operations, with a significant decline in default amounts in December, indicating a potential recovery in credit markets [7][8] - Domestic economic growth is expected to slow down, with GDP growth forecasted at approximately 4.3% for Q4 2025, remaining within the government's target range of around 5% [7][8] - The monetary policy meeting in Q4 removed references to "low price operation," indicating a shift in focus towards addressing supply-demand imbalances in the economy [8] Industry and Company - In the transportation sector, improvements in oil exchange rates are beneficial for the airline sector, while leading express companies are strengthening their competitive advantages [3][20] - The banking sector is expected to perform well leading up to the Spring Festival, with historical data showing a high success rate for bank stocks during this period [24][25] - The mechanical industry is seeing significant developments, with the establishment of a standardization committee for humanoid robots and ByteDance planning to invest $23 billion in AI [26][27] - The social services sector has seen a notable increase in duty-free sales in Hainan, with a 54.9% year-on-year growth, indicating strong consumer demand [33][34] - The express delivery industry is benefiting from price increases due to anti-involution policies, with major players like ZTO and YTO showing improved growth rates [22][23]

Market Performance - The city commercial bank sector increased by 0.13% compared to the previous trading day, with Jiangsu Bank leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3965.12, down 0.0%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13604.07, up 0.49% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Jiangsu Bank closed at 10.44, up 1.16% with a trading volume of 1.2384 million shares [1] - Qilu Bank closed at 5.64, up 0.71% with a trading volume of 707,800 shares [1] - Hangzhou Bank closed at 15.36, up 0.52% with a trading volume of 365,100 shares [1] - Ningbo Bank closed at 28.18, up 0.43% with a trading volume of 182,200 shares [1] - Shanghai Bank closed at 10.17, up 0.39% with a trading volume of 530,900 shares [1] - Guiyang Bank closed at 5.87, up 0.17% with a trading volume of 246,900 shares [1] - Chengdu Bank closed at 16.12, down 0.31% with a trading volume of 298,500 shares [2] Capital Flow - The city commercial bank sector saw a net inflow of 191 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 7.0084 million yuan [2] - The main capital inflow and outflow for individual banks are detailed, with Hangzhou Bank receiving a net inflow of 128 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Jiangsu Bank had a net inflow of 111 million yuan from institutional investors but a net outflow of 124 million yuan from speculative funds [3]

Core Viewpoint - In order to better meet the financial needs of investors, Invesco Great Wall Fund Management Co., Ltd. has signed sales agreements with various banks to expand the distribution of its funds starting from December 30, 2025 [1][9][14]. Group 1: New Sales Agreements - The company has entered into a sales agreement with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) to sell certain funds [1]. - A similar agreement has been established with Zhongyuan Bank, allowing them to sell the company's funds starting from the same date [9]. - Additionally, Ningbo Bank will also be added as a sales platform for a specific bond fund [14]. Group 2: Fund Sales Information - The sales processes, opening conditions, handling times, and fee discount details will be determined by the respective banks [1][9][14]. - Fund subscription and redemption services will only be available during normal subscription periods and specific open days [1][9][14]. - Investors can utilize a regular investment plan through these banks, allowing automatic deductions for fund purchases [2][10][15]. Group 3: Fund Manager Appointments - Zhang Xiaonan has been appointed as an assistant fund manager for several funds, bringing 15 years of experience in the securities and fund industry [5][7]. - Jin Huang has also been appointed as an assistant fund manager for various funds, with 9 years of experience in the sector [5][7].

Core Insights - The banking sector has shown a high win rate of over 80% in the ten years leading up to the Spring Festival, with significant differentiation among individual stocks, where quality joint-stock banks and city commercial banks often outperform, while state-owned banks provide stable performance [2][4][19] - The Shenyin Wanguo Banking Index has the highest win rate for absolute and excess returns among 31 industry indices, with an average absolute return of 4.4% and an average excess return of 4.9% before the Spring Festival [2][4] - The favorable conditions for the banking sector before the Spring Festival in 2026 are expected to continue, driven by balanced market styles, strong demand for high-dividend stocks, and supportive policies leading to better credit performance [2][16][22] Stock Allocation Recommendations - A suggested allocation strategy is to maintain a stable core position (30% in state-owned banks) and an aggressive portfolio (70% in quality joint-stock banks and city commercial banks) [3][19][22] - Key recommendations for stable state-owned banks include Bank of Communications and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, while the aggressive portfolio should focus on China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank, Ningbo Bank, Changsha Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [3][19][22] Individual Stock Performance - Individual stock performance shows significant differentiation, with quality joint-stock banks and city commercial banks more likely to achieve excess returns, while state-owned banks are characterized by strong defensiveness but limited elasticity [13][19] - Historical data indicates that the top-performing bank stocks before the Spring Festival include China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Changsha Bank, which frequently appear in the top gainers list [13][14] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The high win rate of the banking index before the Spring Festival is attributed to various factors, including balanced market styles, strong demand for high-dividend stocks, and effective policy measures [16][20][22] - For 2026, the expectation is that the banking sector will continue to benefit from stable growth policies, with a likely increase in credit issuance compared to the previous year, favoring banks with strong credit performance [16][22]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for all listed banks analyzed, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [6]. Core Insights - The report focuses on the classification of financial investments, the current allocation of listed banks, and how related revenues are accounted for under new accounting standards [5]. - As of Q3 2025, the financial investments of 42 listed banks total approximately 101.5 trillion CNY, with 87% allocated to the configuration portfolio and 13% to the trading portfolio [5][23]. - The bond market is the primary investment direction for listed banks, accounting for 87.6% of their financial investments, with government bonds making up 59.5% of this total [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Classification of Financial Investments - Financial assets are classified into three categories under the new accounting standards: FVTPL (fair value through profit or loss), AC (amortized cost), and FVOCI (fair value through other comprehensive income) [12][13]. - The classification is based on the business model for managing financial assets and the cash flow characteristics of the financial assets [14]. 2. Accounting for Market Revenues - FVTPL assets reflect market fluctuations through "fair value changes" in profit or loss, while AC assets do not reflect fair value changes and primarily generate income from interest [5]. - FVOCI assets account for market fluctuations in other comprehensive income, with interest income recognized in profit or loss [5]. 3. Financial Investment Structure - The configuration portfolio is dominant, with state-owned banks showing the highest allocation to AC, while joint-stock banks and city commercial banks have a higher proportion of trading assets [23][24][25]. - The report notes a structural shift where FVOCI is becoming the main growth area, as banks seek flexibility in their investment strategies [5][23].

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Bank announces service arrangements for year-end financial closing on December 31, 2025, to facilitate customers' fund transfers and planning [1] Group 1: Personal Electronic Channel Services - Personal foreign exchange services will be suspended from December 31, 2025, 21:30 and will resume on January 1, 2026, at 08:30 [2] - Personal precious metals services will be suspended from December 31, 2025, 15:30 and will resume on January 5, 2026, at 09:00 [2] - Personal payment services for living expenses in Ningbo will be suspended from December 31, 2025, 15:30 and will resume on January 1, 2026, at 08:30 [2] - Personal financing repayment services will have differentiated suspensions based on products, with further announcements to follow if applicable [3] Group 2: Corporate Electronic Channel Services - Corporate payment services for living expenses in Ningbo will be suspended from December 31, 2025, 15:30 and will resume on January 1, 2026, at 08:30 [5] - Foreign exchange management services, including spot, forward, swap, and options trading, will be suspended from December 31, 2025, 17:00 and will resume on January 4, 2026, at 08:30 [5] - Corporate financing repayment services will also have differentiated suspensions based on products, with further announcements to follow if applicable [6] Group 3: General Operations - All other services will continue normal operations during this period [4][7] - Customers are advised to make necessary financial arrangements and can contact Ningbo Bank's customer service hotline for urgent matters [7]

Group 1 - The banking industry is accelerating transformation and restructuring, focusing on enhancing quality over quantity, with a clear path of reforms including consumer loan interest subsidies, penetrating regulation, and optimizing liability structures [12][28] - The introduction of the personal consumer loan interest subsidy policy marks a significant central government initiative to stimulate domestic demand, effective from September 1, 2025, providing a 1% subsidy on loans under certain conditions [13] - The cancellation of the cash withdrawal registration requirement for amounts over 50,000 yuan aims to balance risk prevention and service optimization, enhancing customer convenience [14] Group 2 - The ongoing decline in deposit rates reflects a broader trend in the banking sector, with many banks reducing rates to alleviate pressure on net interest margins, as one-year fixed deposit rates have fallen below 1% [17][24] - The restructuring of small and medium-sized banks is underway, with over 400 institutions expected to exit the market in 2025, indicating a significant consolidation phase [18] - The expansion of financial asset investment companies (AIC) is being promoted, with new AICs being established to enhance investment opportunities and support market-oriented debt-to-equity swaps [19] Group 3 - The issuance of technology innovation bonds (科创债) has gained momentum, with 64 banks participating and a total issuance nearing 300 billion yuan, reflecting a multi-tiered participation structure in the market [20] - The abolition of supervisory boards in several major banks aims to streamline governance and improve decision-making efficiency, with over 20 banks making similar adjustments [21] - The consensus against "involution" in the banking sector emphasizes a shift from scale-driven growth to value-driven strategies, promoting rational competition and operational stability [22][28] Group 4 - The rise in gold prices, surpassing 4,500 USD per ounce, has led banks to increase the minimum thresholds for gold accumulation products, reflecting the impact of international market trends [15][26] - The proposed amendments to the Banking Supervision Law aim to enhance regulatory measures and consumer protection, extending oversight to major shareholders and actual controllers of banking institutions [16]

Macro Economic Insights - The US GDP grew by 2.33% year-on-year and 4.30% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025[7] - The industrial output in the US increased by 2.29% year-on-year in November 2025[8] - The EU's crude steel production in November 2025 was 102 million tons, down 4.67% year-on-year[10] Market Performance - Major global stock indices saw gains: Nikkei 225 up 2.5%, Shanghai Composite up 1.9%, and S&P 500 up 1.4% for the week ending December 26, 2025[6] - Commodity prices rose significantly, with COMEX copper up 6.7% and London gold up 4.4%[6] - The US dollar index fell by 0.7%, while the Chinese yuan appreciated by 0.5% against the dollar[6] Investment Trends - The Chinese stock market is expected to stabilize above 4000 points, indicating a potential "transformation bull" market[27] - Emerging technologies are projected to be the main investment focus for 2025, with cyclical finance as a potential dark horse[27] - The risk premium for the Shanghai Composite relative to the 10Y government bond has decreased, indicating improved market sentiment[20] Sector Analysis - The average price of liquid argon has nearly doubled year-on-year, indicating strong demand in the mechanical sector[53] - The insurance sector is seeing a valuation recovery, benefiting from asset reallocation by residents[19] - The real estate market is experiencing a seasonal rebound, with increased transactions in Beijing following relaxed purchase restrictions[19]

在嘉兴这座充满活力的城市，个体工商户遍布餐饮、零售、种植、商贸等多个民生领域。他们不仅是激 活市场微循环的"毛细血管"，更是充盈城市烟火气、支撑地方经济稳健发展的重要力量。作为扎根地方 的金融力量，宁波银行嘉兴分行紧扣个体工商户经营实际，通过产品创新与服务升级，持续提升金融服 务的主动性、便捷性与创新性，助力嘉兴商气更旺、人气更足、烟火气更浓。 精准滴灌，破解传统融资困局 聚焦个体工商户"轻资产、缺抵押"的融资堵点，宁波银行推出"容易贷"纯信用信贷产品，打破传统信贷 模式下对抵押物的过度依赖，让众多信用良好的经营者能便捷获得"源头活水"。同时，围绕个体工商 户"短、小、频、急"的融资特点，宁波银行利用大数据审批和数字化服务流程，提高业务线上化水平， 简化业务办理流程，切实提升融资落地时效。 线上，宁波银行依托自有"美好生活"综合服务平台，为个体工商户提供产品展示与销售渠道，助力商户 拓宽客源；线下，常态化开展员工内购会与社区集市活动，为商户搭建直面消费者的线下场景，激活本 地消费潜力。南湖区凤桥镇的一位葡萄种植户，今年就真切感受到了这份特别的金融支持。当他种植的 阳光玫瑰葡萄遭遇滞销之时，宁波银行嘉兴分行迅速 ...

Core Insights - Ningbo Bank Jiaxing Branch is actively enhancing its elderly financial services in response to the growing demand for health and elderly care services amid an aging population [1] Group 1: Service Upgrades - The bank is focusing on the financial service pain points of the elderly by upgrading both online and offline service scenarios to provide a more comfortable and convenient experience [3] - Offline, smart devices have been modified for elderly use, including cash and integrated teller machines equipped with voice broadcasting and large font displays [3] - The mobile banking app has launched a "Caring Version" with a simplified interface and features like a dedicated customer service hotline for seniors [3] Group 2: Product Innovation - The bank is promoting personal and commercial pension products as part of the third pillar of pension construction, enriching its pension product offerings [4] - A total of 169 types of personal pension products have been launched, including savings, wealth management, funds, and insurance [4] - As of the end of November, the bank has opened 12,800 personal pension accounts with total deposits of 3.718 million yuan, and has completed commercial pension configurations for 531 clients, amounting to 140 million yuan [4] Group 3: Community Engagement - The bank is involved in building a comprehensive elderly service platform called "Jiahe·Silver Home" through government and banking cooperation [6] - The platform offers various activities such as financial literacy education, health and wellness sessions, and cultural events to meet the growing spiritual and cultural needs of the elderly [6] - Since the platform's establishment, over 500 financial education activities have been conducted, serving nearly 20,000 elderly individuals [6]