东吴证券发布研报称，预计2025-2026年磷矿石新增需求482、612万吨，动储领域为主力。磷矿规划产 能与实际落地产能存在较大差距，主要原因是产能需要爬坡时间，且供给受环保安全事件影响程度较 大。看好兼具磷矿资源与磷酸铁产能的一体化企业。 价格展望 磷矿石：2024年我国磷矿石产能开工率58%，有效产能开工率95%。该行预计2025、2026年磷矿石供需 整体平衡，产能开工率57%、54%，而有效产能开工率92%、88%，仍保持较高水平。低品位磷矿石价 格可能略有承压，高品位磷矿石价格将维持高位。 磷酸铁：该行预计磷酸铁供需偏紧张，行业有效产能开工率已在2025Q3开始回暖，假设2025、2026年 磷酸铁有效产能开工率为60%、80%，我国磷酸铁仍存在供需缺口(2024年，我国磷酸铁有效产能开工率 仅有48%)。随着下游磷酸铁锂企业盈利能力修复，磷酸铁景气度有望回暖。 东吴证券主要观点如下： 需求端 磷矿石：2024年我国磷矿石需求量11320万吨，该行预计2025、2026年磷矿石需求量11802、12414万 吨，实际新增需求量482、612万吨，其中新兴领域的需求增长，而传统领域的需求下降。1)新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities highlights the expected growth in demand for phosphate rock driven by emerging sectors, while traditional demand is projected to decline. The overall supply and demand dynamics for phosphate rock and iron phosphate are analyzed for the years 2024 to 2026 [1][2][3]. Demand Side - Phosphate rock demand in China is projected to be 11,320 million tons in 2024, with expectations of 11,802 million tons and 12,414 million tons in 2025 and 2026 respectively. The actual increase in demand is estimated at 482 million tons and 612 million tons [1]. - Emerging sectors, particularly energy storage and power batteries, are expected to drive demand for phosphate rock, with an increase of 393 million tons and 431 million tons in 2025 and 2026 respectively. Iron phosphate is anticipated to contribute significantly to this demand [1]. - Traditional demand for phosphate fertilizers is expected to weaken due to rising raw material prices, with a forecasted decline in phosphate fertilizer production in early 2025 [1]. - Iron phosphate demand is projected to reach 214 million tons in 2024, increasing to 325 million tons and 449 million tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with significant contributions from energy storage [1]. Supply Side - Phosphate rock production capacity in China is expected to be 19,447 million tons in 2024, with projections of 21,732 million tons and 24,762 million tons for 2025 and 2026. Effective capacity and production are also expected to increase correspondingly [2]. - The supply of phosphate rock is significantly impacted by environmental safety incidents, leading to a gap between planned and actual production capacity [2]. - The iron phosphate industry is characterized by long-term overcapacity, with effective capacity and production expected to rise from 426 million tons and 205 million tons in 2024 to 499 million tons and 540 million tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively [2]. Price Outlook - The operating rate for phosphate rock capacity is projected to be 58% in 2024, with expectations of 57% and 54% in 2025 and 2026. High-grade phosphate rock prices are expected to remain elevated, while low-grade prices may face slight pressure [3]. - The iron phosphate market is anticipated to experience tight supply conditions, with operating rates expected to improve significantly in 2025 and 2026, indicating a potential supply gap [3]. Recommended Companies - Companies with phosphate iron and phosphate rock layouts are recommended, including Tianci Materials, Hunan YN, and Zhongwei Co. [4]. - Integrated chemical companies with phosphate iron production and phosphate rock resources are expected to benefit from rising phosphate iron prices, with suggested companies including Chuanheng Co., Xingfa Group, and others [4].

磷矿石处于磷化工产业的上游。今年以来，磷矿石的供需关系始终维持紧平衡状态。根据百川盈孚的监 测数据，12月9日，磷矿石价格在高位维稳运行，30%品位的磷矿石价格为1016元/吨，28%品位的磷矿 石价格为945元/吨，25%品位的磷矿石价格为758元/吨。 "2025年磷矿石均价保持高位坚挺，供需紧张一直是价格的核心支撑因素。资源供给弹性不足与需求持 续增长之间的矛盾，导致市场长期处于紧平衡状态，这一结构性特征促使其价格高位运行。"隆众资讯 磷矿石分析师李霞在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示。 例如，11月23日晚，深圳市芭田生态工程股份有限公司宣布，公司的小高寨磷矿290万吨/年扩建项目安 全设施设计审查获批复。芭田股份（002170）表示，小高寨磷矿获批建设、开采规模的扩大，有利于公 司增加磷矿的产量，并实现扩大和优化上下游产业，进一步实现磷化工一体化战略，实现富矿多开采和 磷资源的高效利用。 12月9日，贵州川恒化工股份有限公司在投资者互动平台上表示，公司在建矿山中，鸡公岭磷矿250万 吨/年的项目建设正常进行，预计2026年可产出工程矿，2027年末投产；老寨子磷矿的180万吨/年项目 已开工建设，预计 ...

数据来源：天眼查APP 证券之星消息，根据天眼查APP数据整理，近日，深圳安矿智能科技有限公司成立，法定代表人为廖文 文，注册资本1000万元，经营范围包含：一般经营项目：机械设备研发；机械设备销售；机械设备租 赁；工业机器人制造；工业机器人销售；工业机器人安装、维修；智能机器人销售；智能机器人的研 发；人工智能硬件销售；智能物料搬运装备销售；软件开发；软件销售；环境保护专用设备制造；环境 保护专用设备销售；安全咨询服务；人工智能基础资源与技术平台；智能控制系统集成；信息技术咨询 服务；采矿行业高效节能技术研发；技术服务、技术开发、技术咨询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推 广。（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活动）许可经营项目：无。天眼查APP 股权穿透显示，该公司由芭田股份全资持股。 证券之星消息，根据天眼查APP数据整理，近日，深圳安矿智能科技有限公司成立，法定代表人为廖文 文，注册资本1000万元，经营范围包含：一般经营项目：机械设备研发；机械设备销售；机械设备租 赁；工业机器人制造；工业机器人销售；工业机器人安装、维修；智能机器人销售；智能机器人的研 发；人工智能硬件销售；智能物料搬运 ...

Market Overview - In November, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a trend of high-low switching, with the ChiNext Index down 4.23% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 5.23%[5] - The market's focus shifted towards defensive sectors as funds moved from high-valuation growth stocks to low-valuation cyclical stocks and dividend assets[5] Investment Strategy - December's market is expected to maintain an upward trend, with a short-term oscillating structure anticipated[5] - Key events include the Central Economic Work Conference and various industry conferences that may create investment opportunities[5] Key Investment Themes - Focus on "anti-involution" policies which are expected to improve industry performance, particularly in resource sectors benefiting from rising commodity prices[5] - Emphasis on overseas expansion themes, with Chinese high-end manufacturing expected to gain market share globally[5] Recommended Stocks - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) projected EPS growth from 1.21 in 2024 to 2.83 in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 23.62 to 10.10[7] - Electric Power Investment (002128.SZ) expected to see EPS rise from 2.38 in 2024 to 2.75 in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 10.9 to 9.45[27] Financial Performance - Zijin Mining's revenue is projected to grow from 303.64 billion yuan in 2024 to 381.84 billion yuan in 2027, with a net profit increase from 32.05 billion yuan to 75.22 billion yuan[18] - Electric Power Investment's revenue is expected to increase from 298.59 billion yuan in 2024 to 371.25 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit rising from 5.34 billion yuan to 6.17 billion yuan[27] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected policy changes, underperformance in commercialization, and slower-than-expected product development[5]

杨义韬分析，获取资源最为直接的方式是"大股东支持模式"，即控股股东将优质磷矿资源注入上市公 司。如控股股东四川发展为川发龙蟒注入天瑞矿业、国拓矿业等，同时川发龙蟒还收购了天盛矿业10% 股权；新洋丰控股股东为其注入竹园沟矿业，并承诺后续将继续注入更多资源。 "另一种路径为市场化并购与合资。"杨义韬表示，企业通过控股、参股或组建合资公司快速扩大权益产 能。如兴发集团8.5亿元收购桥沟矿业50%股权，东方铁塔拟以2.8亿元收购昆明帝银72%股权等。 从政策导向来看，此前工信部等八部门发布《推进磷资源高效高值利用实施方案》，要求"构建高端 化、智能化、绿色化、融合化、集聚化的磷化工产业体系"。四川一家磷矿企业相关负责人透露，在政 策鼓励一体化和资源集中的背景下，地方政府明确支持磷矿石就地消化，配套深加工装置已成为获取矿 权和扩产的隐性前提条件。 受益于化工品持续涨价潮，作为关键原材料的磷矿石价格持续高位运行。据百川盈孚数据，12月2日， 国内30%品位磷矿石市场均价为1016元/吨，28%品位磷矿石市场均价为945元/吨，25%品位磷矿石市场 均价为758元/吨。 近期，芭田股份、兴发集团等上市公司密集披露了其在磷 ...

经营范围含一般经营项目是：机械设备研发；机械设备销售；机械设备租赁；工业机器人制造；工业机 器人销售；工业机器人安装、维修；智能机器人销售；智能机器人的研发；人工智能硬件销售；智能物 料搬运装备销售；软件开发；软件销售；环境保护专用设备制造；环境保护专用设备销售；安全咨询服 务；人工智能基础资源与技术平台；智能控制系统集成；信息技术咨询服务；采矿行业高效节能技术研 发；技术服务、技术开发、技术咨询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推广。（除依法须经批准的项目外， 凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活动），许可经营项目是：无 企业名称深圳安矿智能科技有限公司法定代表人廖文文注册资本1000万人民币国标行业制造业>计算 机、通信和其他电子设备制造业>电子器件制造地址深圳市南山区粤海街道滨海社区高新南十道63号高 新区联合总部大厦30层企业类型有限责任公司(法人独资)营业期限2025-12-2至无固定期限 来源：市场资讯 天眼查显示，近日，深圳安矿智能科技有限公司成立，法定代表人为廖文文，注册资本1000万人民币， 由深圳市芭田生态工程股份有限公司全资持股。 序号股东名称持股比例1深圳市芭田生态工程股份有限公司100% ...

Core Insights - A total of 21 buy ratings were issued by institutions today, covering 20 stocks, with Guizhou Moutai receiving the highest attention with two buy ratings [1][2] - Among the rated stocks, 11 provided future target prices, with 7 stocks showing an upside potential exceeding 20%, led by Guizhou Moutai with a target price of 2600.00 CNY, indicating a potential increase of 79.56% [1][2] - The average increase for stocks with buy ratings today was 0.82%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, with notable gainers including Hu Guang Co., Sophia, and Shenzhou Digital [1][2] Company Summaries - Guizhou Moutai received a strong buy rating from Huachuang Securities with a target price of 2600.00 CNY, compared to the latest closing price of 1448.00 CNY [2] - Dongpeng Beverage also received a strong buy rating from Huachuang Securities with a target price of 340.00 CNY, latest closing at 269.03 CNY [2] - Shenzhou Digital was rated as "Increase" by Guotai Junan with a target price of 55.97 CNY, latest closing at 41.27 CNY [2] - Hu Guang Co. was rated as "Strong Buy" by Huachuang Securities with a target price of 37.90 CNY, latest closing at 31.30 CNY [2] - Other notable stocks include Jerry Shares, which was rated "Increase" with a target price of 73.20 CNY, latest closing at 62.07 CNY [2] Industry Insights - The basic chemical industry was the most favored, with stocks like Huhua Co. and Chuanheng Co. receiving buy ratings [2] - The computer and automotive industries also attracted attention, with two stocks each receiving buy ratings [2]

中化新网讯 近日，记者从芭田股份了解到，该公司全资子公司贵州芭田生态工程有限公司小高寨磷矿 设计规模由前期的200万吨/年变更为290万吨/年。 芭田股份表示，小高寨磷矿设计规模的扩大，有利于公司增大磷矿的产量并优化上下游产业链，进一步 实现磷化工一体化战略，扩大磷矿产能，促进磷精矿、高纯磷酸(盐)等磷化工新能源电池材料产业链的 总体提升，实现富矿多开采和磷资源的高效利用。 今年3月，芭田股份公告旗下小高寨磷矿启动扩建升级项目，其磷矿的采、选产能将分别提升至290万 吨/年、120万吨/年，并升级5G网络技术，打造智慧矿山。项目建成后小高寨磷矿总计建设规模达290万 吨/年，将满足市场对磷矿的持续增长需求，提升公司的竞争力和经济效益。 ...

2025年1至6月份，芭田股份的营业收入构成为：化学肥料制造业占比59.65%，磷矿采选占比39.26%， 新能源材料占比1.09%。 截至发稿，芭田股份市值为112亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——大鹏工业战略配售"肥"了自家人！认购价9元，上市首日涨到118元，实控 人和亲哥哥凭配售一天浮盈2492万元 每经AI快讯，芭田股份（SZ 002170，收盘价：11.61元）11月24日晚间发布公告称，公司第九届第三次 董事会会议于2025年11月24日在公司本部V1会议室以现场和通讯方式结合召开。会议审议了《关于再 次使用部分闲置募集资金暂时补充流动资金的议案》等文件。 （记者 曾健辉） ...