Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on the sales of pre-mixed drinks, while accelerating its layout in the whisky segment [1] - The overall consumption demand is under pressure, but the company's profitability remains relatively stable [5] - The company is focusing on high-quality and stable operations, with a successful response to new product launches in the pre-mixed drinks and whisky segments [7] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's total revenue was 1.489 billion yuan, a decrease of 9% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 389 million yuan, down 3% year-on-year [4] - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 752 million yuan, a decrease of 9% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 208 million yuan, down 11% year-on-year [4] - The company's gross margin in Q2 2025 decreased by 1 percentage point to 71.00%, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 27.63% [5] Product Development - The company's sales revenue from alcoholic products in H1 2025 was 1.297 billion yuan, a decrease of 9% year-on-year, with sales volume down 13% to 15.0327 million boxes [6] - The pre-mixed drinks segment continues to expand, with successful new product launches such as the "358" product matrix and various whisky series [6] - The company has launched over 10 SKUs in the whisky segment, with ongoing upgrades to production bases [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve EPS of 0.71, 0.81, and 0.94 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 36, 31, and 27 times [7] - The company anticipates broad incremental space driven by the dual engines of the pre-mixed drinks and whisky segments [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant equity transaction involving Baijiu giant Bairun Co., Ltd. (百润股份) has attracted attention, with Wenzhou businessman Liu Jianguo acquiring a 6.01% stake for 1.47 billion yuan, indicating a strategic investment in the ready-to-drink cocktail sector amidst the company's fluctuating performance [1][7][10]. Company Overview - Bairun Co., Ltd. is a leading player in the ready-to-drink cocktail market, with its "RIO" brand holding the top market share in China [7]. - The company has faced challenges, with a revenue decline of 6.61% to 3.048 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 11.15% to 719 million yuan in 2024 [7][11]. - In the first half of the year, Bairun's revenue fell by 8.56% to 1.489 billion yuan, and net profit decreased by 3.32% to 389 million yuan, with both the ready-to-drink and flavoring segments experiencing declines [7][11]. Investment Rationale - Liu Jianguo's investment in Bairun is seen as a long-term financial commitment, aimed at enhancing the company's shareholder structure and bringing in resources for development, without seeking management involvement [8][10]. - The acquisition price of 23.337 yuan per share represents a significant discount from the peak price of 141.94 yuan per share in February 2021, reflecting an over 80% decline in share value [9]. Strategic Implications - Liu Jianguo's history of identifying undervalued consumer brands and his experience in capital operations may provide Bairun with strategic advantages, particularly in channel optimization and high-end market positioning [11]. - The potential synergy between Liu's experience in the golf industry and Bairun's beverage sector could lead to cross-industry opportunities, enhancing brand visibility and market reach [11]. Future Outlook - The transaction is viewed as a mutually beneficial arrangement for both Liu Jianguo and Bairun's current controlling shareholder, Liu Xiaodong, as it aligns with their respective strategic goals [10]. - Bairun's ongoing efforts to expand into the whiskey market may further enhance its growth narrative, positioning the company for future success in the evolving beverage landscape [11].

证券代码：002568 证券简称：百润股份 公告编号：2025-038 债券代码：127046 债券简称：百润转债 活动时间为 2025 年 9 月 19 日（周五）15:00-17:00。届时公司的董事、副总经理、 财务负责人马良先生和董事会秘书王晨女士将在线就公司 2025 年度中报业绩、公司治 理、发展战略、经营状况等投资者关心的问题，与投资者进行沟通与交流，欢迎广大投 资者踊跃参与！ 特此公告。 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司 董事会 二〇二五年九月十六日 暨中报业绩说明会活动的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 为进一步加强与投资者的互动交流，上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司（以下简 称"公司"）将参加由中国证券监督管理委员会上海监管局指导、上海上市公司协会及 深圳市全景网络有限公司联合举办的"2025 年上海辖区上市公司集体接待日暨中报业绩 说明会活动"，现将有关事项公告如下： 本次活动将采用网络远程的方式举行，投资者可登录 "全景路演"网站 （https://rs.p5w.net/html/175611728073329.sh ...

Summary of Baijiu Co. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Baijiu Co. - **Industry**: Alcoholic Beverages, specifically focusing on pre-mixed cocktails and whiskey Key Points and Arguments Pre-mixed Cocktails Business - In the first half of 2025, the overall pre-mixed cocktail business declined by approximately 9%, while the "Mild Drunk" series achieved double-digit growth. The "Strong Refreshing" and "Refreshing" series experienced double-digit and single-digit declines respectively, indicating a shift in market preferences [2][3] - New products such as jelly cocktails and high-alcohol pre-mixed cocktails were launched in Q3 2025, with a sales target of 60 million yuan, aimed at stabilizing and improving performance [2][3] - The pre-mixed cocktail business has grown from around 1 billion yuan in 2018 to a projected 25-30 billion yuan by 2024, with significant contributions from the "Mild Drunk" and "Strong Refreshing" products [3][4] Whiskey Business Development - Baijiu Co. is actively developing its whiskey business, having launched products like "Bailide Blended Whiskey" and "Laizhou Single Malt Whiskey." The company expects to complete 85% of terminal distribution by the end of Q3 2025, although initial sales feedback has been lukewarm [2][5] - The Chinese whiskey market is estimated to be worth 5 to 6 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 21% over the past 8 to 9 years. However, foreign brands dominate the market, accounting for over 70% of market share [2][7] - Baijiu Co. aims to leverage its local distribution system to change the current market dynamics dominated by foreign brands [2][8] Market Potential and Strategy - The company has over 500,000 barrels of base liquor reserves and is innovating by using Chinese yellow wine barrels for whiskey production. There is a potential resonance effect between pre-mixed cocktails and whiskey in consumer cultivation [2][9] - The whiskey market in China is still in its early stages, and significant marketing efforts are required to enhance consumer acceptance and penetration [12][15] - The company has invested heavily in project barrels since 2020, with a production capacity of 31,000 tons for vodka and 5,000 tons for whiskey, indicating strong production capabilities [4][13] Future Outlook - The recovery of the pre-mixed cocktail business depends on consumer spending power and the success of innovative product collaborations [4][14] - If whiskey products can generate significant incremental growth, the company's market value could increase substantially. The company has a comprehensive product matrix and is focusing on brand innovation to stabilize and gradually improve performance [6][11] - The potential for whiskey sales to reach half the size of the pre-mixed cocktail market (12.5 to 15 billion yuan) is anticipated as consumer awareness and distribution channels improve [11] Marketing and Consumer Engagement - Effective marketing strategies are crucial for whiskey, which requires time for consumer acceptance. The company plans to utilize thematic marketing to create buzz and engage younger consumers [15] - Key sales periods such as Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day, and Chinese New Year are critical for assessing market performance and consumer response [12][15] Additional Important Insights - The company has a strong innovation capability in new consumer categories, and monitoring its development dynamics is essential for potential investment opportunities [16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The white liquor market is gradually stabilizing, with health and nutrition creating a second growth curve for Ximai. The food and beverage index increased by 1.1% from September 8 to September 12, ranking 17th among 28 sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.3 percentage points. The sub-industries of meat products (+3.0%), white liquor (+1.7%), and pre-processed foods (+0.4%) performed relatively well. The white liquor sector is currently under demand pressure, with slight price declines for Feitian Moutai, indicating terminal demand stress. However, there are signs of improvement in terminal sales for Moutai since the end of August, suggesting that the bottom for the white liquor market is approaching. It is expected that the economic activity will increase with the implementation of large-scale infrastructure projects, leading to a stable upward trend in the white liquor market [4][11][12]. Summary by Sections Weekly Viewpoints - The white liquor market is stabilizing, and health products are becoming a potential growth area for Ximai. The food and beverage index's performance is lagging behind the market, with specific sub-industries showing better results [4][11]. Market Performance - The food and beverage index rose by 1.1%, ranking 17th out of 28 sectors, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 0.3 percentage points. Meat products, white liquor, and pre-processed foods led the sub-industry performance [11][13]. Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices are declining, with full-fat milk powder auction prices down by 5.6% month-on-month but up by 12.2% year-on-year. Domestic fresh milk prices are also showing a downward trend [18][21]. Liquor Industry News - The liquor industry is seeing new product launches to adapt to market changes, with companies like Wuliangye and Zhenjiu introducing new products targeting younger consumers. The market is expected to recover as risks are released and new products are introduced [4][39]. Recommended Portfolio - The recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Wancheng Group, and Bairun Shares, with each company showing potential for growth despite current market pressures [5][43].

Core Viewpoint - The transfer of shares from Liu Xiaodong, the actual controller of Bairun Co., Ltd., to Liu Jianguo raises complex signals amid the company's declining performance, particularly in its main product, RIO cocktails [1][5]. Group 1: Share Transfer Details - Liu Xiaodong plans to transfer 63 million shares, representing 6.01% of the total share capital, to Liu Jianguo for a total price of RMB 1.47 billion, at a price of RMB 23.337 per share [3][4]. - Following the transfer, Liu Jianguo will hold 6.01% of Bairun's shares, while Liu Xiaodong will retain 34.58% of the shares, ensuring no change in the controlling shareholder [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Bairun's financial report for the first half of 2025 shows a revenue decline of 8.56% to RMB 1.489 billion and a net profit decrease of 3.32% to RMB 389 million [5][6]. - The company's main product, alcoholic beverages, which account for 88% of revenue, saw a 9.35% decline in sales, totaling RMB 1.297 billion [6]. Group 3: Market Strategy and Challenges - Bairun is attempting to diversify its product line by introducing whiskey, with plans to produce 1 million barrels of original liquor over the next 4 to 5 years [6][7]. - The whiskey market remains niche, with challenges in converting cocktail consumers to whiskey drinkers, as the product is still in the early stages of market acceptance [7].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a rating of "Buy" for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 10.21%, 13.80%, and 15.81% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with absolute values of 33.59 billion, 38.23 billion, and 44.27 billion [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow by 7.53%, 18.45%, and 16.85% over the same period, with absolute values of 7.73 billion, 9.16 billion, and 10.70 billion [5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company launched its liquor business in 2016 and has made significant investments, exceeding 35 billion, to establish a production capacity of 26,000 tons for grain-based spirits and 4,000 tons for malt whiskey by 2024 [13][14] - The company aims to achieve a raw liquor reserve target of 1 million barrels over the next five years, positioning itself as the largest liquor manufacturer in China [13][18] Product Development and Market Strategy - The company has successfully localized imported products, particularly in the ready-to-drink cocktail market, where it holds the top market share in China [34] - The product matrix has been refined to meet diverse consumer preferences, with a focus on high-quality and innovative offerings [22][23] - The company has developed a dual-brand strategy for whiskey, with a focus on high-quality products that cater to both traditional and modern consumer tastes [22] Market Potential and Consumer Insights - The domestic whiskey market is expected to double in size, driven by the growing consumer interest in premium and differentiated products [4] - The company has identified a significant overlap in the consumer demographics of its ready-to-drink cocktails and whiskey, particularly among younger consumers aged 18-39 [59] Financial Projections - Revenue and net profit forecasts indicate a positive growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 33.59 billion, 38.23 billion, and 44.27 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.69 in 2024 to 1.02 by 2027, reflecting the company's growth strategy and market positioning [6]

Market Overview - On September 12, the non-liquor sector declined by 1.05%, with Bai Run Co., Ltd. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3883.69, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12996.38, up 0.13% [1] Stock Performance - The following stocks in the non-liquor sector experienced notable price changes: - Bai Run Co., Ltd. (002568) closed at 25.91, down 1.78% with a trading volume of 95,000 shares and a turnover of 248 million yuan [2] - ST Xifa (000752) closed at 11.96, down 1.56% with a trading volume of 67,800 shares and a turnover of 82.15 million yuan [2] - Xianjing Beer (000729) closed at 11.82, down 1.34% with a trading volume of 227,600 shares and a turnover of 270 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The non-liquor sector saw a net outflow of 145 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 123 million yuan [2][3] - The following stocks had significant capital flows: - Gu Yue Long Shan (600059) had a net inflow of 11.18 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 7.20 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Chongqing Beer (600132) had a net inflow of 7.43 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 14.01 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Summary of Baijiu Co. Conference Call Industry Overview - The pre-mixed alcoholic beverage market in China is expected to experience rapid expansion, driven by changes in consumer demographics, channel development, and consumption scenarios, similar to the Japanese market [2][5][6] - The current scale of the pre-mixed beverage market in China is approximately 70 billion yuan in production and 150 billion yuan in retail [6] - The whisky market in China has seen significant growth, with retail sales increasing from about 1 billion yuan in 2013 to an estimated 55-60 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of around 20% [17] Company Insights - Baijiu Co. is positioned as a leading player in the pre-mixed beverage market, holding over 60% market share [2][7] - The company has introduced innovative products such as jelly wine and the light enjoyment series, contributing to revenue growth [2][14] - Baijiu Co. has established a clear product matrix with three core offerings: 3-degree light, 5-degree refreshing, and 8-degree strong beverages [10] Key Points from the Conference Call - **Operational Turnaround**: The company anticipates a turning point in operations in Q3, with expected revenue growth driven by stable performance of the 358 series and new product contributions [2][4] - **Whisky Business Growth**: Baijiu Co. has become the largest whisky producer in China, with projected whisky revenue reaching 300 million yuan for the year [3][22] - **Marketing Strategy**: The company has refined its marketing approach since 2016, focusing on a combination of online and offline strategies to enhance cost efficiency and drive sales growth [9] - **Product Development**: The company has successfully launched new products targeting specific consumer segments, such as the micro-drunk series aimed at young women and the refreshing series for home dining [11][12] Competitive Landscape - The pre-mixed beverage market is expected to see a concentration of leading brands while smaller brands become more fragmented [8] - Baijiu Co.'s long-standing presence and continuous innovation provide it with a competitive edge in the market [7] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the growth potential of both its pre-mixed beverage and whisky segments, with expectations of improved revenue and profit margins in the coming quarters [15][22] - The introduction of new products is expected to complement existing offerings and fill gaps in the market, particularly in the mid-alcohol segment [14][15] Additional Insights - The whisky segment is primarily targeted at young male consumers aged 18-29, with a focus on home consumption and small gatherings [17] - Baijiu Co. has established a dual-brand strategy with Bailede and Laizhou, aiming to enhance market penetration and brand recognition [18][22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. has seen a significant increase in its stock price, with a rise of 5.11% to 26.53 CNY per share, and a total market capitalization of 27.818 billion CNY [1] - The company was established on June 19, 1997, and went public on March 25, 2011. Its main business involves the research, production, and sales of flavor and fragrance products, as well as pre-mixed cocktails [1] - The revenue composition of the company is primarily from alcoholic products at 87.14%, followed by food flavoring at 11.34%, and other sources at 1.52% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, a fund under Shanzheng Asset Management has heavily invested in Bairun shares, with an increase of 1,500 shares in the second quarter, bringing the total to 19,200 shares, which constitutes 4.35% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund, Shanzheng Asset Management Selected Industry Mixed Initiation A (018750), was established on December 26, 2023, with a latest scale of 10.9956 million CNY. It has achieved a year-to-date return of 5.45% and a one-year return of 33.79% [2] - The fund manager, Zhuang Bo, has a tenure of 10 years and 179 days, with the fund's total asset scale at 11.3079 million CNY. The best return during his tenure is 24.93%, while the worst is -3% [2]