Core Insights - The importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan": The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to significantly impact China's economic and social development over the next five years, shifting focus from production to a balance between production and consumption due to the current issue of insufficient effective demand [1] - Strengthening consumption policies: Starting in 2024, consumption policies will be significantly enhanced, including the allocation of special government bond funds to support consumption upgrades. Continued funding is expected in 2025 and 2026 [1] - Potential of service consumption: China's service consumption still lags behind developed economies, indicating a substantial opportunity for growth in this sector to stimulate consumer interest and optimize the consumption environment [1] - Rise of technology consumption: With a rapid technological development and an engineering talent surplus, products like robotic vacuum cleaners and drones are gaining market attention, likely creating new consumer demand [1] - Optimization of the overall consumption mechanism: Measures such as consumption tax reform will encourage local governments to transition from production-oriented to service-oriented, promoting the internationalization of quality consumption companies and enhancing residents' consumption capacity [1] Investment Recommendations - Food and Beverage: Recommended companies include Dongpeng Beverage and Lihigh Food, with a focus on Youran Dairy and Bairun Co [2] - Service Sector: Recommended companies include Guming, Mixue Group, and Bubugao, with a focus on Zhongsheng Holdings [2] - Light Industry: Companies to watch include Hengfeng Paper and Xilinmen [3] - Trendy Toys: Recommended companies include Pop Mart and Blokus [4] - Home Appliances: Recommended companies include Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Electronics H, Roborock, and Ecovacs, with a focus on Yingshi Innovation [5] - Agriculture: Recommended companies include Zhongchong Co, Petty Co, Muyuan Foods, and Haida Group [11] - Textile and Apparel: Recommended companies include Anta Sports, Xtep International, 361 Degrees, and Hailan Home, with a focus on Li Ning and Sanfu Outdoor [11] Report Content Analysis - Expanding consumption share: The report emphasizes that expanding consumption share is essential for achieving Chinese-style modernization, as China's consumption rate is significantly lower than that of developed countries [9] - Shift in fiscal spending: During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, fiscal spending will shift from material investments to human capital investments, increasing support for education, healthcare, and housing [9] - Promotion of common prosperity: The report highlights the need for income distribution reform and the promotion of the Zhejiang common prosperity model to achieve balanced development [9] - Consumption tax reform: The report suggests that consumption tax reform will help local governments transition from production-oriented to service-oriented, enhancing the consumption environment [9] - Transition from traditional to new consumption: The report analyzes the maturation of traditional consumption markets and the rise of new consumption, which is characterized by a focus on quality and personal satisfaction [9] - Stimulating interest in service consumption: The report indicates that the shift from physical to service consumption is crucial for expanding domestic demand, with growing demand for events and performances benefiting local consumption [9]

Market Overview - On September 10, the non-liquor sector declined by 0.27% compared to the previous trading day, with *ST Lanhua leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812.22, up 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12557.68, up 0.38% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the non-liquor sector included *ST Yedao, which rose by 3.22% to close at 6.74, and ST Xifa, which increased by 1.76% to 11.57 [1] - Conversely, *ST Lanhua fell by 2.18% to 8.51, and Zhujiang Beer decreased by 1.22% to 10.53 [2] Trading Volume and Value - The trading volume and value for selected stocks in the non-liquor sector showed significant activity, with Gu Yue Long Shan recording a trading volume of 113,300 hands and a transaction value of 114 million yuan [1] - The total net outflow of funds in the non-liquor sector was 8.89 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 28.12 million yuan [2] Fund Flow Analysis - Ba Run Co. had a main fund net inflow of 26.84 million yuan, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 4.98 million yuan [3] - The fund flow analysis indicates that while main funds were withdrawing, retail investors were actively buying into certain stocks, such as Huaiqian Beer, which saw a net inflow of 2.76 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company, with a target price of 30.08 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 25.31 CNY [5][6]. Core Views - The company has shown stable operations with expectations for improvement in the second half of the year. The first half of 2025 saw a revenue decline of 8.56% year-on-year, with a net profit decrease of 3.32% [1]. - The alcoholic beverage segment experienced a slight decline, with revenues of 12.97 million CNY, down 9.35% year-on-year, while the edible flavor segment saw a smaller decline of 3.91% [2]. - The company is focusing on high-quality development in its pre-mixed cocktail business, optimizing marketing expenses, and managing accounts receivable effectively, which has led to improved cash flow [3]. - New product iterations are accelerating, with the introduction of single malt and blended whiskies, contributing to a growing product matrix [4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenues of 1.489 billion CNY, with a net profit of 389 million CNY. The second quarter alone saw revenues of 752 million CNY and a net profit of 207 million CNY [1]. - The gross margin for Q2 was 71.00%, with a net margin of 27.62%, reflecting slight declines compared to the previous year [3]. - The company expects revenue growth rates of -0.5%, 19.3%, and 14.9% for 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of -0.2%, 25.5%, and 17.3% respectively [5][11]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has increased its distributor count by 200, reaching a total of 2,268 by the end of the first half of 2025, indicating a strategic focus on expanding its market presence [2]. - The company is enhancing its product innovation and channel management, which is expected to support sustainable growth through economic cycles [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report references an average valuation of 43.96x for comparable companies, suggesting a favorable position for the company within its industry [5][10]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately 26.56 billion CNY, with a circulating market value of about 18.29 billion CNY [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Bairun Co., Ltd. has experienced fluctuations in stock performance and financing activities, indicating a mixed market sentiment towards the company [1][2]. - On September 9, Bairun's stock price fell by 2.39%, with a trading volume of 360 million yuan, and the net financing purchase amounted to 10.34 million yuan [1]. - As of September 9, the total balance of margin trading for Bairun reached 310 million yuan, which is 1.14% of its market capitalization, indicating a relatively high level compared to the past year [1]. Group 2 - As of June 30, the number of shareholders for Bairun increased by 15.89% to 34,500, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 13.14% to 20,936 shares [2]. - For the first half of 2025, Bairun reported a revenue of 1.489 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 389 million yuan, down 3.32% year-on-year [2]. - Bairun has distributed a total of 2.673 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 833 million yuan distributed in the last three years [3]. Group 3 - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders of Bairun include new institutional investors such as Xingquan Helun Mixed A, holding 12.41 million shares, and the Wine ETF, which increased its holdings by 1.34 million shares to 11.00 million shares [3].

Group 1 - The company, BaiRun Co., announced the repurchase and cancellation of 820,400 restricted shares, which accounts for 0.0782% of the total share capital before the repurchase [2] - After the completion of the repurchase and cancellation, the total share capital of the company will be adjusted from 1,049,368,955 shares to 1,048,548,555 shares [2] - As of the date of the announcement, the repurchase and cancellation process for the restricted shares has been completed at the Shenzhen branch of China Securities Depository and Clearing Co., Ltd [2]

关于可转换公司债券转股价格调整的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 债券代码：127046 债券简称：百润转债 证券代码：002568 证券简称：百润股份 公告编号：2025-036 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司 经深交所"深证上[2021]1056 号"文同意，公司 112,800 万元可转换公司债 券将于 2021 年 11 月 3 日起在深交所挂牌交易，债券简称"百润转债"，债券代 码"127046"。 1、调整前转股价格：46.66 元/股 2、调整后转股价格：46.68 元/股 3、本次转股价格调整生效日期：2025 年 9 月 10 日。 根据《上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司公开发行可转换公司债券募集说 明书》及中国证监会关于可转换公司债券发行的有关规定，在本次发行之后，当 公司发生派送股票股利、转增股本、增发新股或配股、派送现金股利等情况（不 包括因本次发行的可转换公司债券转股而增加的股本）使公司股份发生变化时， 将按下述公式进行转股价格的调整（保留小数点后两位，最后一位四舍五入）： 派送股票股利或转增股本：P ...

债券代码：127046 债券简称：百润转债 证券代码：002568 证券简称：百润股份 公告编号：2025-035 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司 关于部分限制性股票回购注销完成的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 1．本次回购注销限制性股票 820,400 股，占回购注销前公司总股本 1,049,368,955 股的 0.0782%。本次回购注销完成后，公司股本总数由 1,049,368,955 股调整为 1,048,548,555 股。 2．截至本公告披露日，上述限制性股票已在中国证券登记结算有限责任公 司深圳分公司完成回购注销流程。 一、激励计划简述及已履行的相关审批程序 1．2021 年 12 月 3 日，公司召开第五届董事会第二次会议，审议通过了《关 于〈上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司 2021 年限制性股票激励计划（草案）〉 及其摘要的议案》《关于〈上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司 2021 年限制性 股票激励计划实施考核管理办法〉的议案》以及《关于提请股东大会授权董事会 办理本次限制性股票激励计划相关事宜的议案》 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [10]. Core Viewpoints - Baijiu Co., Ltd. is the leading player in China's pre-mixed beverage market, with stable growth expected in its pre-mixed beverage business as the market continues to expand. Additionally, as a leading domestic whisky brand, the company is well-prepared in terms of product matrix, channel design, and capacity reserves, which positions it to benefit from the increasing penetration of whisky in the Chinese market [3][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Baijiu Co., Ltd. operates two main businesses: pre-mixed beverages and flavoring agents. In 2024, the pre-mixed beverage segment is projected to generate revenue of 2.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%, accounting for 87.8% of total revenue. The flavoring agent business is expected to achieve revenue of 340 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, making up 11.0% of total revenue [5][19]. Pre-mixed Beverage Business - The company has established a comprehensive product matrix and a multi-channel distribution strategy, including both online direct sales and offline fast-moving consumer goods channels. The product offerings include various series of pre-mixed cocktails, catering to different consumer preferences and occasions. The "RIO" brand has maintained the highest market share in the industry for several years [6][64]. Whisky Business - The whisky segment is positioned for rapid growth, with the company having completed the 500,000th barrel filling, making it the largest whisky distillery in China. The company has launched several new whisky products and is focusing on brand promotion and consumer experience centers to enhance its market presence [7][20][82]. Financial Forecast - The company is expected to see earnings per share (EPS) of 0.70 yuan in 2025 and 0.86 yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 37 and 30 times, respectively. The report anticipates stable growth in the pre-mixed beverage market and significant contributions from the whisky segment as market penetration increases [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The bottom of the liquor market is gradually emerging, and growth in new consumption is expected. The food and beverage index experienced a decline of 1.0% from September 1 to September 5, ranking 14th among 28 sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.2 percentage points. The sub-industries of processed foods (+1.0%), meat products (+0.5%), and other foods (0.0%) performed relatively well. Individual stocks such as Huanlejia, Qianwei Yangchun, and Huifa Foods saw significant gains, while Aipu Co., Youyou Foods, and New Dairy experienced notable declines. Despite market consolidation, a more proactive investment approach in the food and beverage sector is recommended to seize undervalued rotation opportunities. The liquor sector is facing demand decline due to alcohol bans, but the current fundamental situation is already reflected in the market, and the risk is reduced. As companies streamline operations, they are expected to resonate with the subsequent industry recovery, leading to increased investment interest. Some liquor brands are showing signs of improvement in opening rates, indicating that the fundamental bottom is approaching. The food and beverage sector has undergone a prolonged adjustment, and current valuations are relatively low, providing a high safety margin. Public fund positions have continued to decrease, optimizing the chip structure. Liquor companies, represented by liquor stocks, are showing a continuous increase in dividends, aligning with the stock selection criteria of certain funds, making them attractive to conservative investors. Additionally, new consumption is expected to continue attracting funds in the second half of the year. From the mid-year performance reports, new consumption targets exhibit rapid growth and strong growth potential, with high growth expected for the entire year. Investors are advised to focus on new channels, new categories, and new markets to identify new consumption targets that align with industry development trends. Specific recommended stocks include Weilong Delicious, Yanjinpuzi, Ximai Foods, Dongpeng Beverage, Youyou Foods, Wancheng Group, and Bairun Co. [3][11][12] Market Performance - From September 1 to September 5, the food and beverage index declined by 1.0%, ranking 14th out of 28, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.2 percentage points. The sub-industries of processed foods (+1.0%), meat products (+0.5%), and other foods (0.0%) performed relatively well. Individual stocks such as Huanlejia, Qianwei Yangchun, and Huifa Foods saw significant gains, while Aipu Co., Youyou Foods, and New Dairy experienced notable declines [12][13]. Upstream Data - On September 2, the GDT auction price for whole milk powder was $3,809 per ton, down 5.6% month-on-month but up 12.2% year-on-year. The domestic fresh milk price was 3.0 yuan per kilogram on August 28, remaining stable month-on-month but down 4.7% year-on-year. In the short to medium term, domestic milk prices are still on a downward trend [16][17]. Liquor Industry News - Recently, Guizhou Province announced two liquor projects with a total investment of 5.2 billion yuan. The projects include a 50,000-ton annual production facility for sauce-flavored liquor and an intelligent storage center for sauce-flavored liquor. The total investment for the production facility is 5 billion yuan, while the intelligent storage center has an investment of 200 million yuan [38][39].

Group 1 - The stock price of BaiRun Co., Ltd. has declined by 2.62% on September 3, reaching 26.03 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 224 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.18%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 27.315 billion CNY. The stock has experienced a cumulative decline of 7.5% over the past three days [1] - BaiRun Co., Ltd. was established on June 19, 1997, and went public on March 25, 2011. The company is primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of flavor and fragrance products, as well as pre-mixed cocktails. The revenue composition is as follows: alcoholic products account for 87.14%, food flavorings 11.34%, and others 1.52% [1] Group 2 - According to data from the top ten holdings of funds, one fund under Everbright Pramerica holds a significant position in BaiRun Co., Ltd. The Everbright Pramerica Consumer Stock A Fund (008234) held 253,900 shares in the second quarter, representing 4.04% of the fund's net value, making it the ninth largest holding. The estimated floating loss today is approximately 177,700 CNY, with a total floating loss of 535,700 CNY during the three-day decline [2] - The Everbright Pramerica Consumer Stock A Fund (008234) was established on April 23, 2020, with a current scale of 157 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 11.91%, ranking 3409 out of 4222 in its category; the one-year return is 32.11%, ranking 2958 out of 3783; and since inception, the return is 16.8% [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of Everbright Pramerica Consumer Stock A Fund is Ma Pengfei, who has been in the position for 5 years and 134 days. The total asset size of the fund is 659 million CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 16.82% and the worst being -29.26% [3]