Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the sales of pre-mixed cocktails are under pressure, but there is an expectation for gradual improvement in performance [1] - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026 due to the pressure on pre-mixed cocktail sales, with projected net profits of 750 million, 860 million, and 1 billion yuan for the respective years, reflecting year-on-year changes of -7.3%, +15.0%, and +15.5% [3][4] - The company plans to launch new whiskey products in the fourth quarter, which is expected to create a new growth curve [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 2.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 570 million yuan, down 13.7% year-on-year [3] - In Q3 2024, the operating revenue was 760 million yuan, a decline of 6.0% year-on-year, and the net profit was 170 million yuan, down 24.0% year-on-year [3] - The gross margin improved to 70.18% in Q3 2024, an increase of 1.34 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower costs and changes in product mix [3] Sales and Product Performance - The revenue from pre-mixed cocktails for the first three quarters was 2.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year, with Q3 revenue at 670 million yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year [3] - The company is focusing on promotional activities and inventory reduction in response to weak consumer demand [3] - The sales of the "Refreshing" product line are expected to maintain high growth due to its cost-effectiveness in lower-tier markets [3] Financial Metrics and Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 0.72 yuan, 0.82 yuan, and 0.95 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 29.5, 25.7, and 22.2 [3][4] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 24.36 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of about 16.63 billion yuan [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.39 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 570 million yuan, down 13.7% year-on-year [1]. - The pre-mixed beverage segment is under pressure due to high base effects, weak consumer spending, and intense competition at the retail level, while the flavoring and other segments showed stable performance [1][2]. - The gross margin improved by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to 70.2% in Q3 2024, attributed to product mix improvements [2]. - The company is expected to increase channel and terminal investments in Q4 2024, which may help improve sales of pre-mixed beverages due to a significantly lower base and the upcoming Spring Festival stocking season [2]. Financial Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 760 million yuan, a decrease of 6.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 170 million yuan, down 24.0% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s net profit margin for Q3 2024 decreased by 5.4 percentage points to 22.7%, while the net profit margin for the first three quarters decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 23.9% [2]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 740 million, 860 million, and 960 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8.6% in 2024, followed by increases of 15.6% and 12.6% in the subsequent years [3][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 758 million yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 172 million yuan, down 24.01% year-on-year. The pre-mixed cocktail segment generated 671 million yuan in revenue, reflecting a decline of 6.58% due to weak terminal demand and a high base from the previous year. The company maintains a leading position in the pre-mixed cocktail market and has significant advantages in whiskey production capacity and reserves. The launch of new products in Q4 is expected to drive growth [3][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.386 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.88% year-on-year, and a net profit of 574 million yuan, down 13.67% year-on-year. The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 70.18%, an increase of 1.33 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to reduced commercial discounts and lower raw material costs. However, the operating expense ratio increased to 33.46%, up 4.18 percentage points year-on-year, leading to a net profit margin of 22.67%, down 5.39 percentage points year-on-year [7][8]. Future Outlook - The company is strategically positioned in the whiskey market, which is small but growing rapidly in China. The company has been developing its liquor business since 2017, with advantages in production capacity and advanced facilities. The launch of whiskey products in Q4 2024 is anticipated to contribute positively to revenue growth. The projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 3.204 billion yuan, 3.537 billion yuan, and 3.867 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 720 million yuan, 836 million yuan, and 924 million yuan [7][8].

证 券 研 报 公 司 研 2024 年 11 月 02 日 究 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][7][13] Core Views - The pre-mixed beverage business is under pressure, but the whisky segment is expected to drive future growth. The company has been enhancing its product matrix and marketing strategies to adapt to market changes [5][6][7] - The company reported a revenue of 2.386 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.88%, with a net profit of 574 million yuan, down 13.67% year-on-year [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 758 million yuan, a decline of 5.95% year-on-year, and a net profit of 172 million yuan, down 24.01% year-on-year [4][5] - The gross margin increased by 3.25 percentage points to 70.11%, attributed to a decrease in raw material costs [6] - The company’s operating expenses increased, impacting the net profit margin, which decreased by 3.06 percentage points to 23.95% [6] Business Segments - The pre-mixed beverage segment generated 2.102 billion yuan in revenue for the first three quarters, a decrease of 3.13% year-on-year, but showed signs of recovery in Q3 with a revenue of 671 million yuan, up 6.58% year-on-year [5] - The company is expanding its whisky product line, which is expected to launch in Q4 2024, potentially becoming a new growth driver [5][6] Market Outlook - The pre-mixed beverage industry has a low penetration rate, and the company maintains a leading market share. The revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 3.276 billion, 3.418 billion, and 3.646 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 0.37%, 4.34%, and 6.67% [7][8] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 824 million, 878 million, and 950 million yuan, with growth rates of 1.84%, 6.52%, and 8.19% respectively [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][10] Core Views - The company reported a 6% year-on-year decline in revenue for the third quarter, indicating continued pressure on demand [1] - The pre-mixed liquor business experienced a revenue decline of 6.6% year-on-year, although the rate of decline narrowed compared to the previous quarter [1][4] - The company is enhancing its product matrix in the pre-mixed liquor segment and is optimistic about the growth potential of its liquor business, which is expected to contribute to revenue starting in 2025 [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 2.386 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.88% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 574 million yuan, down 13.67% year-on-year [1][4] - In the third quarter alone, total revenue was 758 million yuan, down 5.95% year-on-year, with a net profit of 172 million yuan, reflecting a 24.01% decline [1][4] - The gross profit margin improved by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw material prices and changes in product structure [5] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2024-2026, now expecting revenues of 3.192 billion, 3.578 billion, and 3.937 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -2.2%, +12.1%, and +10.0% [7][9] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 773 million, 864 million, and 963 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -4.5%, +11.7%, and +11.4% [7][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.74, 0.82, and 0.92 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7][9]

Group 1: Company Overview - Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. is involved in the production and sales of flavor and fragrance products [1] - The company has made structural adjustments in its flavor and fragrance business, transferring the legal entity from the parent company to a wholly-owned subsidiary [2] Group 2: Business Development - The flavor and fragrance business has maintained stable operations and a positive growth trend, focusing on large clients while also serving small and medium-sized customers [2] - The company is actively exploring new markets and industries to increase its customer base and business volume [2] Group 3: Product Planning - The company emphasizes product research and development, planning to launch new products based on consumer research and market conditions [2] - A new whiskey product will be officially announced on November 19, 2024, following three years of aging in compliance with international standards [2] Group 4: Expansion Projects - The expansion projects for the Bacchus Wine Industry's Shanghai production base and the Guangdong production base are progressing smoothly [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [11]. Core Views - The pre-mixed cocktail business is under pressure, while the whiskey segment is poised for growth, with new product launches expected to drive future performance [4][2]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, now projecting net profits of 748 million, 976 million, and 1.241 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to challenges in the pre-mixed cocktail business [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenues of 2.386 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.88%, and a net profit of 574 million yuan, down 13.67% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 70.11%, an increase of 3.25 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3]. - The company’s selling expense ratio increased to 24.09%, up 3.94 percentage points year-on-year, impacting the net profit margin, which decreased to 23.95%, down 3.06 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Business Segment Analysis - The pre-mixed cocktail business generated 2.102 billion yuan in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, a decline of 3.13% year-on-year, with a single-quarter revenue of 671 million yuan in Q3 2024, down 6.58% year-on-year [2]. - The whiskey product line is expected to launch in Q4 2024, presenting significant growth potential for the company [4]. Earnings Forecast - The revised earnings forecast for 2024-2026 indicates a net profit of 748 million yuan in 2024, 976 million yuan in 2025, and 1.241 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30, 23, and 18 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 were 239 million and 57 million yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 2.9% and 13.7% [2] - The sales of pre-mixed drinks are under pressure, but the product structure remains relatively stable [2] - The company is expected to continue developing its product matrix and is preparing for the launch of its whiskey products in 2025 [3][4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for total revenue from 2024 to 2026 is adjusted to 32.7 billion, 37.4 billion, and 41.6 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.2%, 14%, and 11% respectively [4] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period is adjusted to 7.9 billion, 9.1 billion, and 10.5 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -3%, 16%, and 15% respectively [4] Financial Metrics - The latest diluted EPS for 2024 is projected to be 0.75 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 29, 25, and 22 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][11] - The gross profit margin for 2024 is expected to be around 70.19%, while the net profit margin is projected to be approximately 24.08% [11]

Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was under short-term pressure, with revenue of 2.386 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.88%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 574 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.67% [1] - The company is expected to release its first whiskey product on November 19, which could become a new growth driver given the potential of the domestic whiskey market [2] - Despite short-term challenges, the company's pre-mixed alcohol business remains the market leader with over 80% market share, and its long-term growth potential is still promising [3] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue was 758 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.95%, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 172 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.01% [3] - Pre-mixed alcohol revenue for the first three quarters was 2.102 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.13%, with Q3 revenue of 671 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.58% [3] - Gross margin increased by 1.34 percentage points to 70.18% in Q3, benefiting from lower production costs and reduced transportation expenses [3] - Sales expense ratio increased by 3.14 percentage points to 23.46% in Q3 due to increased market investment in a weak consumption environment [3] Industry and Product Analysis - The domestic whiskey market is dominated by high-priced imported brands, but domestic production capacity exceeded imports in 2023 [2] - The company has been preparing for its whiskey business since 2016, with production capacity far exceeding other distilleries, and its whiskey has reached a three-year aging period [2] - The company has innovatively developed whiskey with Chinese flavors, such as yellow wine barrel and Mongolian oak barrel whiskey, and has made significant progress in channel construction and consumer education [2] Future Outlook - Revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to be 3.3/4.0/4.7 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 1%/21%/18% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is expected to be 721/889/1,077 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -11%/23%/21% [4] - The company's pre-mixed alcohol "358" matrix continues to improve, and the upcoming whiskey product is highly anticipated [4] Valuation - The company's P/E ratio for 2024-2026 is expected to be 32/26/21 times, with P/B ratios of 5.53/5.29/5.08 times [6] - ROE for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 17%/20%/24% [6]