Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is actively reducing inventory, and there are positive expectations for whisky recruitment [5][8] - The RTD (Ready-to-Drink) division is expected to return to high-quality development, focusing on optimizing marketing expenses [7] - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was 737 million yuan, a decrease of 8.11% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 181 million yuan, an increase of 7.03% [9] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 3.048 billion yuan, a decline of 6.61% year-on-year, and a net profit of 719 million yuan, down 11.15% [9] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 69.7%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with a notable reduction in sales expenses [9] - The company expects to achieve revenues of 3.434 billion yuan, 3.907 billion yuan, and 4.504 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.7%, 13.8%, and 15.3% [9][11] Product and Market Insights - The company is launching new whisky products, including "Bailide" blended whisky and the "Laizhou" single malt whisky series, with recruitment and distribution expected to catalyze growth in Q2 [8] - The revenue from pre-mixed drinks and flavoring segments showed a decline of 7.17% and an increase of 6.30% respectively in 2024 [9] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 34, 29, and 25 times respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [9]

食品饮料/非白酒 百润股份（002568.SZ） 预调酒目标企稳增长，威士忌业务推进顺利 相关研究报告 《预调酒销售持续承压，期待业绩逐 步改善 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.11.3 《预调酒销售短期承压，下半年新品 值 得 期 待 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.8.1 《预调酒业务行稳致远，威士忌新品 前 景 可 期 — 公 司 首 次 覆 盖 报 告 》 -2024.7.3 ——公司信息更新报告 | 张宇光（分析师） 逄晓娟（分析师） | | 张恒玮（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | zhangyuguang@kysec.cn | pangxiaojuan@kysec.cn | zhanghengwei@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030003 | 证书编号：S0790521060002 | 证书编号：S0790524010001 | |  | 业绩表现符合预期，期待威士忌放量增长，维持"增持"评级 | | | 百润股份 2024 | 年营收 30.5 亿元，同比-6.6%，归母净利润 | 7.2 亿元，同比- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to stabilize its growth in the ready-to-drink cocktail segment while the whisky business is progressing smoothly [1][10] - The revenue for 2024 is projected at 3.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, with a net profit of 720 million yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year [5][9] - The company anticipates a gradual improvement in performance, particularly in the whisky segment, with new product launches expected to contribute positively to revenue [6][10] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the ready-to-drink cocktail revenue was 2.68 billion yuan, down 7.2% year-on-year, primarily due to weakened consumer demand [6] - The company's Q1 2025 revenue was 740 million yuan, a decrease of 8.1% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 7.0% to 180 million yuan [5][9] - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026, expecting net profits of 830 million yuan, 960 million yuan, and 1.09 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 15.3%, 16.1%, and 13.3% [5][9] Margin and Cost Analysis - The gross margin for Q1 2025 increased by 1.34 percentage points to 69.66%, attributed to product mix optimization and reduced costs from the establishment of a liquor production base [8] - The net profit margin improved by 3.68 percentage points to 24.61% in Q1 2025 [8] Sales Channel Performance - Offline channel revenue for 2024 was 2.71 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.5%, while online retail revenue fell by 30.8% to 270 million yuan due to adjustments in e-commerce strategies [7] - The company is focusing on expanding its offline presence while adjusting its online strategies to maintain product pricing [7] Future Outlook - The ready-to-drink cocktail segment is expected to show a quarter-on-quarter improvement, with the whisky segment anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue growth in the coming years [6][10] - The company is projected to achieve stable growth in 2025, supported by the successful launch of new whisky products [6][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company shows resilience in its ready-to-drink cocktail business, with a projected recovery in growth for 2025. The whisky business has entered the product sales phase, which is expected to be a significant highlight for 2025 [6]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast based on the latest performance and increased expectations for whisky business profitability, projecting EPS of 0.77, 1.00, and 1.29 for 2025-2027 [6]. Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profitability - 2024 projected revenue is 30.48 billion, with a decline of 6.61% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected at 7.19 billion, down 11.15% year-on-year [2][6]. - For 2025 Q1, revenue is estimated at 740 million, a decrease of 8.1% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to be 180 million, an increase of 7.03% year-on-year [6]. Revenue Growth Forecast - Revenue growth rates are projected at 23.00% for 2025, 23.45% for 2026, and 20.43% for 2027 [2][8]. - The ready-to-drink cocktail business is expected to recover in 2025, with an estimated revenue of around 650 million for Q1 [6]. Profitability Metrics - Gross margin is expected to improve from 69.67% in 2024 to 73.08% by 2027 [2][8]. - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 23.59% in 2024 to 24.37% in 2027 [8]. Valuation Ratios - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 40.87 in 2024 to 20.16 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [2][8]. - The P/B ratio is projected to decline from 6.27 in 2024 to 4.05 in 2027 [2][8]. Business Segment Insights Ready-to-Drink Cocktails - The ready-to-drink cocktail segment generated 26.8 billion in revenue for 2024, showing a slight decline but with a stable development outlook due to consumer loyalty and ongoing product updates [6]. Whisky Business - The whisky segment has launched new products and is expected to contribute significantly to revenue in 2025, with a strong product pipeline and marketing strategy [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Bairun Co., is facing challenges with declining revenue and net profit, marking a shift in growth momentum for its core product, RIO pre-mixed cocktails, amid changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [1][9]. Financial Performance - In the fiscal year 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.048 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.61%, and a net profit of 719 million yuan, down 11.15% [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a slight recovery in net profit, which increased by 7.03% year-on-year, although revenue still declined by 8.11% [1][6]. Main Product Decline - RIO, established in 2003, remains the leading brand in the domestic pre-mixed cocktail market, accounting for 87.83% of the company's revenue in 2024, but its revenue fell by 7.17% with sales volume down by 8.81% [2][3]. - The offline distribution network has contracted, with the number of distributors decreasing from 2,164 to 2,068, particularly in the East China region, which saw a 16% decline [2]. Consumer Trends - The younger generation is shifting towards new beverage options such as hard seltzers and craft beers, which are squeezing the market space for RIO's low-alcohol sweet cocktails [3]. - Despite frequent new product launches, the lifecycle of these products is shortening, leading to decreased brand loyalty and repurchase intent among consumers [3]. Operational Challenges - The company has a high sales expense ratio, with total sales expenses reaching 750 million yuan, accounting for over 24% of revenue, which is considered high compared to industry peers [6]. - Inventory levels have increased significantly, with total inventory rising by 33.7% to 1.043 billion yuan, raising concerns about potential cash flow impacts [7]. New Business Development - The company is focusing on developing its whiskey business as a second growth curve, with over 400,000 barrels in aging capacity and the launch of new whiskey products [8]. - However, the whiskey business is still in its early stages and has not yet contributed significantly to revenue, facing challenges related to long aging periods and market education [8]. Overall Outlook - Bairun Co. is at a critical juncture with its main business entering a growth plateau, while new business lines require ongoing investment and market cultivation [9]. - Financially, the company maintains profitability and healthy cash flow, but the quality and sustainability of growth are under scrutiny [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily due to strong sales pressure on its flagship product, while also indicating improvements in gross margin and a focus on key product marketing [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 720 million yuan, down 11.2% [1][2]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 660 million yuan, with net profit of 140 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year revenue decline of 18.0% [2]. - Cash receipts for 2024 totaled 3.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.2% year-on-year [2]. Product Performance - The company's food flavor segment generated revenue of 340 million yuan, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year, while the ready-to-drink cocktail segment reported revenue of 2.68 billion yuan, down 7.2% [2]. - The ready-to-drink cocktail segment faced pressure due to a high base from the previous year, expected to account for nearly half of total revenue [2]. Channel Analysis - Revenue from offline, digital, and ready-to-drink channels in 2024 was 2.71 billion yuan, 270 million yuan, and 40 million yuan, respectively, with declines of 1.5%, 30.8%, and 43.6% year-on-year [3]. - The company shifted its focus back to offline development post-pandemic, reducing online investment and maintaining price expectations [3]. Margin and Cost Structure - The gross margin for 2024 was 69.7%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from cost reductions [4]. - The gross margin for food flavors was 69.1%, up 1.5 percentage points, while ready-to-drink cocktails had a gross margin of 70.0%, up 2.4 percentage points [4]. - Sales and management expense ratios increased by 2.9 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively, with marketing expenses rising to 400 million yuan, an increase of 11.7% [4]. Future Outlook - The ready-to-drink cocktail business is stabilizing, and new whiskey products are being rolled out, with expectations for earnings per share (EPS) of 0.78, 0.89, and 1.03 yuan for 2025-2027 [2][5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a 34 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, leading to an upgrade to a "strongly recommended" rating [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.05 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 720 million yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 660 million yuan, down 18.0% year-on-year, with a net profit of 140 million yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [1] - The pre-mixed liquor segment continues to face pressure due to high base effects and weak demand, while the flavoring business showed stable performance. The sales volume of pre-mixed liquor decreased by 8.8% to 32.38 million boxes in 2024, with an average price increase of 1.8% to 82.7 yuan per box [1][2] - The company expects improved performance in the pre-mixed liquor segment starting from Q2 2025, as the base effect diminishes. The introduction of new whiskey products is anticipated to drive revenue growth [3] Financial Summary - The company's gross margin increased by 3.0 percentage points to 69.7% in 2024, primarily due to channel and product structure optimization. The sales expense ratio rose by 2.9 percentage points to 24.6%, with advertising expenses increasing by 34% [2] - For 2025-2027, the company is projected to achieve net profits of 860 million, 1.00 billion, and 1.12 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 20.0%, 16.3%, and 11.7% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 32, 28, and 25 times for the respective years [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Strongly Recommended" [3][6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.05 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 720 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.6% and 11.2% respectively, primarily due to the high base effect from the previous year [6][7] - The pre-mixed cocktail business stabilized in Q1 2025, while the new whiskey products began distribution, indicating a positive outlook for future growth [6][7] - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 0.78, 0.89, and 1.03 yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with the current stock price corresponding to a 34 times price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company experienced a revenue decline of 6.6% to 3.05 billion yuan, with a net profit of 720 million yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year [6][7] - The gross profit margin improved to 69.7%, up 3.0 percentage points from the previous year, benefiting from cost reductions [6][7] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 23.6%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [6][7] Product Performance Summary - The pre-mixed cocktail revenue was 2.68 billion yuan in 2024, down 7.2% year-on-year, while the sales volume decreased by 8.8% [6][7] - The company’s food flavoring segment saw a revenue increase of 6.3% to 340 million yuan in 2024 [6][7] - The company plans to enhance market promotion efforts around key products to drive growth [6][7] Market Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing whiskey market, targeting younger consumers and competing with international brands [6][7] - The report emphasizes the potential for significant market expansion as the whiskey category enters a rapid growth phase [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The demand for pre-mixed cocktails remains weak, while the whiskey business is expected to provide new growth momentum [1][8] - The company has launched its whiskey products, which are anticipated to drive faster revenue growth [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 720 million yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year [3][4] - For Q4 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 660 million yuan, a decline of 18% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 140 million yuan, an increase of 0.5% year-on-year [3][4] - In Q1 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 740 million yuan, down 8.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 180 million yuan, up 7% year-on-year [3][4] Product Performance Summary - The pre-mixed cocktail segment generated revenue of 2.68 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 7.17% year-on-year, with sales volume down 8.81% [4] - The food flavoring segment saw revenue of 337 million yuan, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year, indicating stable growth [4] Channel Performance Summary - Offline retail remains the primary sales channel, contributing 2.71 billion yuan in revenue, a decline of 1.48% year-on-year, accounting for 89.96% of total revenue [4] - Digital retail channels experienced a significant drop in revenue, down 30.75% year-on-year, while the ready-to-drink channel saw a decline of 43.58% [4] Profitability and Cost Analysis - The company's gross margin improved to 69.67% in 2024, up 2.97 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to slight price increases and reduced commercial discounts [5] - The net profit margin for Q4 2024 was 21.88%, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase due to higher other income [5] Future Outlook and Valuation - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 809 million yuan and 940 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 13% and 12% [8] - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 0.77 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34x [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.05 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 720 million yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year. The revenue for Q4 2024 was 660 million yuan, a decline of 18.0% year-on-year, while the net profit was 140 million yuan, an increase of 0.5% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 740 million yuan, down 8.1% year-on-year, and net profit was 180 million yuan, up 7.0% year-on-year [1][2][3] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the gross margin increased by 3.0 percentage points to 69.7%, primarily due to channel and product structure optimization. The sales expense ratio rose by 2.9 percentage points to 24.6%, with advertising expenses increasing by 34%. The net profit margin decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 23.5% due to rising expense ratios [2][3] - The company expects the pre-mixed beverage business to face short-term growth pressure due to a high base and weak demand, while the whiskey segment is anticipated to contribute modest revenue [1][3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and introduced a forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of 860 million yuan, 1.00 billion yuan, and 1.12 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 20.0%, 16.3%, and 11.7% [3][5] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on improving the efficiency of its marketing expenditures and anticipates better profit performance than revenue growth. The launch of new whiskey products is expected to enhance market presence and drive sales [3][5]