Group 1 - Rare metal concept stocks have strengthened, with Ganfeng Lithium rising over 6%, Tianqi Lithium and Zhongkuang Resources rising over 5%, and Salt Lake Co. rising over 4% [1] - The ETF tracking the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index has increased by over 3% due to market influence [1] Group 2 - The CSI Rare Metals Theme Index selects no more than 50 listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of rare metals to reflect the overall performance of rare metal theme stocks [2] - Analysts indicate that strategic minor metal reserves are limited, mining is challenging, and supply elasticity is insufficient, while downstream demand in sectors like new energy, semiconductors, and military industry is rapidly growing, exacerbating supply-demand conflicts [2] - With the continued prominence of resource scarcity, upgrading demand structure, and policy regulation, minor metal prices are expected to maintain an upward trend, benefiting companies with resource reserves, technological barriers, and compliant export channels [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a rise due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to increased prices for metals like cobalt, copper, and rare earths [1] - As of September 4, 2025, the non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) increased by 0.80%, with significant gains in stocks such as Yunnan Zhenye (3.71%) and Ganfeng Lithium (3.60%) [1] - The Pacific Securities report indicates that the prices of most non-ferrous metals were strong in the first half of 2025, resulting in improved performance for many companies in the sector [1] Group 2 - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index accounted for 50.35% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining and Northern Rare Earth [2] - The non-ferrous ETF fund (159880) closely tracks the non-ferrous metal industry index and reflects the overall performance of listed companies in this sector [1][3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the lithium mining industry, focusing on supply disruptions and long-term reset costs related to lithium resources [1][3][12]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Supply Disruptions**: Eight lithium mines in Yichun, Jiangxi, are required to submit resource reports before the 930 deadline, potentially causing supply-side disturbances and affecting lithium resource tax rates [1][5]. - **Price Volatility**: The price of lithium carbonate futures is expected to fluctuate significantly in 2025 due to production halts or reductions in regions like Qinghai and Yichun, with prices potentially exceeding 90,000 yuan [1][8]. - **Market Surplus**: The lithium market is projected to experience surpluses of 190,000 tons and 215,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2025 and 2026, respectively, despite potential supply-side disturbances that could quickly shift the market to a tighter balance [1][12]. - **Valuation Methods**: Traditional PE valuation methods are deemed unstable for lithium mining companies due to price volatility; a reset cost approach is recommended for a more accurate long-term investment value assessment [1][13][14]. Company-Specific Insights - **Ganfeng Lithium**: Holds approximately 50 million tons of resources, with a mineral value of 56 billion yuan based on current lithium carbonate prices. The reset cost could reach 73 billion yuan, indicating potential undervaluation in the current market [1][14][16]. - **Companies to Watch**: Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, Zhongmin Resources, and Shengxin are highlighted for their stable resources and early investments in solid-state battery technology, indicating growth potential [1][17][18]. - **Zhongmin Resources**: Engaged in various minor metals and plans to start copper shipments in 2026, benefiting from low-cost advantages and increased demand in commercial aerospace [2][19]. - **Shengxin's Competitive Edge**: The company has expanded overseas through its smelting plant in Indonesia and has a leading position in ultra-thin and ultra-wide lithium belts, enhancing its competitiveness in the solid-state battery market [20]. Additional Important Points - **Tax Implications**: Lithium resource tax rates vary based on the classification and treatment of lithium, which can significantly impact company costs [7]. - **Future Price Trends**: The future trajectory of lithium carbonate prices will depend on supply-side changes post-930 deadline and overseas supply recovery [9][10]. - **Resonance of Supply Disturbances**: The importance of monitoring both domestic and international supply disturbances is emphasized, as they can significantly affect commodity prices [11]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the lithium mining industry and specific companies of interest.

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2025 H1 financial results, showing significant revenue growth but a sharp decline in net profit [1] Financial Performance - In 2025 H1, the company achieved revenue of 3.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 90 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 81.2%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 10 million yuan, down 98.3% year-on-year [1] - For Q2 2025, the revenue was 1.73 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -50 million yuan, with a net profit excluding non-recurring items of -40 million yuan [1] Business Segments - The cesium and rubidium segment reported revenue of 710 million yuan in 2025 H1, a year-on-year increase of 50.4%, with a gross profit of 510 million yuan, also up 50.2%. The fine chemicals segment generated revenue of 410 million yuan, up 24.9%, and a gross profit of 310 million yuan, up 26.6%. The cesium formate segment saw revenue of 300 million yuan, a remarkable increase of 107.6%, with a gross profit of 200 million yuan, up 110.6% [2] - Lithium salt sales slightly increased, with self-supplied lithium salt sales reaching 18,000 tons, a year-on-year growth of 6.4%. However, the average price of domestic lithium carbonate fell to approximately 70,000 yuan per ton, a decrease of 32.5% year-on-year, leading to a gross margin of only 10.9%, down 24.7 percentage points year-on-year [3] Operational Challenges - The copper smelting segment faced significant pressure due to a global shortage of copper concentrate, resulting in a substantial decline in processing fees and a loss of approximately 200 million yuan from the Namibia smelting business. The company plans to implement cost-cutting measures and shut down copper smelting lines to mitigate losses [3] - The company is advancing its copper and gallium-germanium smelting projects, with the Zambia Kitumba copper mine having a resource of 27.9 million tons and an average grade of 2.2% copper [3][4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the cesium and rubidium business, with projected net profits of 530 million yuan, 1.32 billion yuan, and 1.98 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively. The corresponding EPS is estimated to be 0.73, 1.83, and 2.74 yuan per share, with PE ratios of 57, 23, and 15 times [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.27 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.9%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of only 90 million yuan, down 81.2% year-on-year [1] - The cesium and rubidium business showed strong growth, with revenues of 710 million yuan in H1 2025, up 50.4% year-on-year, and gross profit of 510 million yuan, also up 50.2% [1] - The lithium salt sales increased slightly, with a volume of 18,000 tons in H1 2025, a 6.4% year-on-year growth, but the average price of lithium carbonate fell by 32.5% [2] - The copper smelting segment faced significant pressure, leading to a loss of approximately 200 million yuan in the Namibia smelting business, but measures are being taken to reduce costs and improve profitability [3] - The copper mining and gallium-germanium smelting projects are progressing steadily and are expected to contribute profits in the future [4] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 530 million yuan, 1.32 billion yuan, and 1.98 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.73, 1.83, and 2.74 yuan per share [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.27 billion yuan, with a net profit of 90 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline in profitability [1] - The cesium and rubidium segment reported revenues of 710 million yuan, with a gross profit of 510 million yuan, indicating robust growth [1] - Lithium salt sales reached 18,000 tons, but the average price of lithium carbonate decreased significantly, impacting margins [2] Business Development - The copper smelting operations are under pressure due to global supply constraints, leading to losses, but the company is implementing cost-cutting measures [3] - The Kitumba copper mine in Zambia and the Tsumeb project in Namibia are progressing as planned, with expected production in 2026 [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to have net profits of 530 million yuan in 2025, increasing to 1.98 billion yuan by 2027, with a corresponding decrease in P/E ratio over the same period [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Fed's September rate - cut expectation is rising, there's an expectation of a shift from the traditional domestic consumption off - season to the peak season, and the global total inventory of electrolytic copper shows an initial decline, which may lead to a relatively strong performance of Shanghai copper prices. It is recommended that investors lightly go long on the main contract on dips, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. Summary by Relevant Data Shanghai Copper Futures Data (2025 - 08 - 28) - Closing price: 78,930, down 260 from the previous day [2] - Trading volume: 73,403 lots, an increase of 15,585 lots from the previous day [2] - Open interest: 168,997 lots, a decrease of 6,000 lots from the previous day [2] - Inventory: 21,232 tons, down 55 tons from the previous day [2] - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price: 79,616, down 355 from the previous day [2] - Shanghai copper basis: 260, down 95 from the previous day [2] Other Price and Spread Data - LME 3 - month copper futures closing price: 9,818, up 62.5 from the previous day [2] - Total registered and cancelled warehouse receipt inventory: 0, a decrease of 157,950 from the previous day [2] - LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread: - 82.79, up 7.14 from the previous day [2] - LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread: - 167.53, up 2.04 from the previous day [2] - Shanghai - London copper price ratio: 8.0393, down 0.08 from the previous day [2] - COMEX 9 copper futures active contract closing price: 4.5445, down 0.0025 from the previous day [2] - Total inventory weight: 275,226 tons, an increase of 3,121 tons from the previous day [2] Industry News - Hudbay Minerals restarted the operation of its Snow Lake mine in Manitoba on August 22 [2] - European high - quality copper exports are restricted, and Sino - US tariff negotiation uncertainty affects scrap copper imports. Domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper price difference is negative, and the scrap copper import window is closed. Some copper smelters are shut down or have production cuts, while some new projects are under construction or planned to be put into production [2] - The weekly processing fee of crude copper in northern (southern) China remains flat (decreases), and the operating rate of domestic scrap - produced anode plate capacity decreases compared with last week. Domestic smelters' crude copper maintenance capacity in August may decrease month - on - month, and the production (import) volume of domestic crude copper in August may increase [2] - Some domestic electrolytic copper production projects are planned to be put into production in the future, and some overseas copper smelters have maintenance or production - cut situations. African agricultural exports delay ship bookings, which may lead to a decrease in domestic electrolytic copper imports in August. The import window opening may increase imports, and the social inventory of domestic electrolytic copper increases [2]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - In the past five trading days, a total of 402 companies were investigated by institutions, with Tianfu Communication, Proya, and Zhongkuang Resources being the most frequently researched companies by multiple institutions [1]. Group 1: Institutional Research Activity - 390 companies, accounting for 97.01% of the listed companies, were investigated by securities firms, while 341 companies were researched by fund companies, and 270 companies by private equity institutions [1]. - Among the companies, 244 received attention from more than 20 institutions, with Tianfu Communication being the most popular, attracting 306 institutions [1]. - Other notable companies include Proya with 233 institutions and Zhongkuang Resources with 200 institutions participating in the research [1]. Group 2: Fund Flow and Performance - In the past five days, 67 stocks that attracted more than 20 institutions saw net capital inflows, with Chip Origin receiving the highest net inflow of 776 million yuan [1]. - Other companies with significant net inflows include Shenzhen South Circuit and Zhongji Xuchuang, with net inflows of 670 million yuan and 534 million yuan, respectively [1]. - Among the stocks investigated, 125 experienced price increases, with Cambridge Technology, Tianfu Communication, and Haon Automotive showing the highest gains of 51.72%, 50.35%, and 47.01% respectively [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Among the 244 companies that have released their semi-annual reports, Fuji Lai and Sanyou Medical reported the highest year-on-year net profit growth of 12430.96% and 2083.64% respectively [2].

Core Viewpoint - Zhongkuang Resources has shown a significant increase in stock price and trading activity, indicating positive market sentiment despite some fluctuations in net profit [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Zhongkuang Resources' stock price increased by 16.29% year-to-date, with a 0.07% rise in the last five trading days, a 12.56% increase over the last 20 days, and a 35.22% increase over the last 60 days [2]. - As of August 28, the stock was trading at 40.70 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 29.365 billion CNY [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Zhongkuang Resources reported revenue of 3.267 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 34.89%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 89.129 million CNY, reflecting a significant decrease of 81.16% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 1.728 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.592 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder and Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 65,900, with an average of 10,786 circulating shares per person, a decrease of 3.67% from the previous period [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 16.4078 million shares, an increase of 786,100 shares from the previous period [3].

Group 1 - In the past five trading days, a total of 287 companies were investigated by institutions, with Tianfu Communication, Desai Xiwai, and Zhongkuang Resources being the most frequently researched [1][2] - Among the companies investigated, 177 had more than 20 institutions participating, with Tianfu Communication receiving attention from 306 institutions, ranking first [1] - The types of institutions involved in the research included 277 securities companies, 247 fund companies, and 190 private equity firms [1] Group 2 - In terms of market performance, 121 of the investigated stocks rose, with Tianrongxin, Shengyi Electronics, and Jinli Permanent Magnet showing the highest increases of 38.21%, 31.14%, and 29.68% respectively [2] - Conversely, 54 stocks experienced declines, with Furuishi, Xingyun Co., and Yuanhang Precision showing the largest drops of 16.06%, 13.10%, and 10.29% respectively [2] - Among the stocks investigated, 176 have released semi-annual reports, with Fuji Lai and Suotong Development reporting the highest year-on-year net profit growth of 12430.96% and 1568.52% respectively [2] Group 3 - The most frequently investigated stock was Ice Wheel Environment, which received 7 institutional research visits [1] - Other companies with multiple investigations included Hualing Steel and Youfa Group, each receiving 3 visits [1] - The net inflow of funds in the past five days for stocks with more than 20 institutions researching was positive for 55 stocks, with Zhaoyi Innovation seeing a net inflow of 912 million yuan, the highest among them [1]

制作：产品中心 《策略|"十五五"前瞻初探——"十五五"研究系列》 1、"十五五"规划展望。自 1953 年开始制定第一个"五年计划"以来， 我国已发布十四个"五年规划"。完善统一大市场：推进统一大市场建设 重点在于打破地方保护和市场分割，促进资源的高效配置流动，激发各类 市场主体活力与创造力。2、促进民生消费："十五五"规划可能在以下几 方面进一步对消费进行支持：1.财政支出从投资进一步转向民生；2.大力 支持消费结构升级。3、深化国有企业改革：整体来看，预计"十五五" 中，国有企业改革整体思路或依旧延续精细化区分、"一企一策"的思路， 同时要积极探索尝试有利于创新的国有企业经营机制和公司治理模式。4、 健全资本市场稳定机制："十五五"期间资本市场改革思路或转向"构建 内在稳定、韧性强的现代化资本市场生态系统"。整体来看，"十五五"期 间的资本市场稳定机制建设将是一个系统性的工程，完成从"政策驱动" 到"制度驱动"、从"单一维度"到"生态系统"的转型，推动资本市场 高质量发展,助力加快建设金融强国。 证券研究报告 | 2025 年 08 月 27 日 $$\overline{{{\prod_{\mathrm ...