Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's main business continues to grow, with improved profitability. The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 2.785 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 23% to 177 million yuan [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 increased by 2 percentage points to 28.83%, attributed to a higher proportion of premium products and new products, alongside a decrease in raw milk prices [1] - The company is focused on its five-year plan to double its net profit margin, emphasizing the "Fresh Cube Strategy" to enhance market penetration [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 8.150 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 474 million yuan, an increase of 24% [1] - The company’s Q3 2024 revenue was 2.785 billion yuan, with a net profit of 177 million yuan, reflecting a 23% increase year-on-year [1] Product and Market Strategy - The company’s low-temperature products showed stable growth, with low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt revenues increasing by approximately 10% year-on-year [1] - The company is enhancing its product structure by increasing the proportion of new products and optimizing its sales channels, particularly through direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels [1] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 0.63, 0.76, and 0.87 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20, 17, and 15 times [1][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company has shown resilience with a slight decline in revenue but a significant increase in net profit, indicating improved profitability [1][2]. - The low-temperature product category has experienced double-digit growth, while the overall revenue has been temporarily impacted by adjustments in the consolidation scope [2]. - The company is committed to its new five-year strategic plan aimed at strengthening core business and enhancing corporate value, with a target to double net profit margin within five years [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 470 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.4% [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 29.1%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw milk prices and product mix optimization [2]. - The net profit margin for the first three quarters was 6%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.2 percentage points, indicating a continuous improvement in profitability [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focused on its "Fresh Cube Strategy" and aims to enhance its position in the low-temperature dairy market through innovation and regional development [3]. - The company has secured 60% of its raw milk supply through self-owned and equity-held sources, aligning with its strategic goals [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 540 million yuan, 640 million yuan, and 760 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.63 yuan, 0.75 yuan, and 0.88 yuan [3][4]. - The dynamic PE ratios are projected to be 20 times, 17 times, and 14 times for the respective years [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.15 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.54%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 24.37% to 474 million yuan [6] - The low-temperature product segment is experiencing accelerated growth, particularly in the East China region, with double-digit revenue growth in low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt [7] - Profitability is improving due to product structure optimization and cost reductions, with a net profit margin of 6.54% and a gross margin of 28.83% in Q3 2024 [8] - The company is focused on its "Fresh Cube Strategy," emphasizing low-temperature products and modern media marketing to achieve nationwide expansion [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.785 billion yuan, down 3.82% year-on-year, but net profit rose by 22.92% to 177 million yuan [6][7] - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 563 million, 645 million, and 811 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.65, 0.75, and 0.94 yuan [9][10] Product and Market Analysis - The low-temperature product category is a strategic focus, with significant growth driven by new product development and direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel expansion [7] - The East China region showed strong performance with double-digit revenue growth in Q3 2024, while the western region faced challenges due to the overall consumption environment [7] Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s net profit margin improved by 1.52 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw milk prices and product mix adjustments [8] - The report highlights a slight increase in sales expense ratio to 15.27% due to heightened market competition, while management and financial expense ratios showed improvements [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 8.15 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a slight decrease of 0.54% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 24.37% to 474 million yuan [1][4] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.785 billion yuan, down 3.82% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 22.92% to 177 million yuan [1][4] - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of 0.035 yuan per share, which represents 10.16% of the net profit for the first half of the year [1] Revenue Performance - The low-temperature product category achieved double-digit growth in Q3 2024, driven by new product development and expansion of direct-to-consumer channels [2] - The East China subsidiary reported double-digit growth in Q3, while the Western region faced revenue pressure due to the overall consumption environment [2] - The company’s subsidiary, Weipin, continued to see double-digit growth in revenue, with accelerated performance in Q3 compared to the first half of the year [2] Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 29.09%, an increase of 1.67 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower milk prices and product structure optimization [3] - The net profit margin for the same period was 5.81%, up 1.16 percentage points year-on-year [3] - In Q3 2024, the gross profit margin was 28.83%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.40 percentage points [3] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 541 million yuan, 654 million yuan, and 770 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 25.59%, 20.94%, and 17.66% [4] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (P/E) for these years are projected to be 20, 16, and 14 times, respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a steady growth in performance, with a first-time interim dividend announced, reflecting an increased focus on shareholder returns [2][6]. - Despite industry demand pressures, the company has maintained relatively better sales performance through low-temperature and new product strategies, with significant profit growth expected as it continues to improve profit margins according to its five-year plan [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 474 million yuan, an increase of 24.37% [2][6]. - In Q3 2024, revenue was 2.785 billion yuan, down 3.82% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 177 million yuan, up 22.92% [2][6]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 29.09%, an increase of 1.66 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 5.97%, up 1.19 percentage points [6][7]. Dividend Announcement - The company announced an interim dividend plan, proposing a cash dividend of 0.35 yuan per 10 shares (before tax), totaling approximately 30 million yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 6.36% [6][7]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 11.493 billion yuan, 12.310 billion yuan, and 13.410 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.60%, 7.11%, and 8.94% respectively [7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 558 million yuan, 682 million yuan, and 803 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 29.53%, 22.28%, and 17.65% respectively [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's main business shows steady growth, with product structure optimization leading to an increase in gross margin [4] - The company is focusing on high-end products under the "fresh" strategy, enhancing profitability through regional deepening and increased penetration [3][6] - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with a slight decline in revenue but a significant increase in net profit [3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 8.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 474 million yuan, an increase of 24.4% [3] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.785 billion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year, but net profit rose by 22.9% to 177 million yuan [3] - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 550 million, 650 million, and 770 million yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.64, 0.75, and 0.89 yuan [3] Business Segment Performance - Q3 revenue decline was primarily due to the sale of "One Yogurt Cow" at the end of 2023, but the main business continues to grow steadily [4] - Low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt categories showed double-digit growth, while ambient products experienced slight declines [4] - The East China region performed well with double-digit growth, while the Western region faced challenges due to the consumption environment and product structure [4] Profitability Analysis - The net profit margin increased by 1.38 percentage points to 6.36% in Q3 2024, mainly due to a 2.40 percentage point increase in gross margin [5] - The improvement in gross margin is attributed to structural optimization and declining raw milk prices [5] - The company expects continued support for gross margin improvement in Q4 due to ongoing declines in raw milk prices and structural enhancements [5] Strategic Outlook - The company aims to cultivate strategic categories centered on low-temperature fresh milk and specialty yogurt, focusing on internal growth potential [6] - Emphasis on new product development and promotion, with a target for new product revenue to exceed double digits [6] - The DTC channel is seen as a key growth engine, with plans to expand into emerging channels like snack retail [6]

公司研究 [Table_Title] 主业增长稳健，盈利弹性释放 ——新乳业（002946）2024 年三季报点评 | --- | --- | |--------------|-----------------------------------------| | 2024 | 11 月 03 日 | | 研究所： | | | 证券分析师： | 刘洁铭 S0350521110006 liujm@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 秦一方 S0350523120001 qinyf@ghzq.com.cn | 评级：增持(维持) 最近一年走势 事件: 新乳业发布 2024 年三季报，2024 年前三季度公司实现营业收入 81.94 亿元，同比-0.54%，归母净利润 4.74 亿元，同比+24.4%，扣非归母净 利润 5.07 亿元，同比+29.5%。单 Q3 公司实现营收 27.85 亿元，同比 -3.82%，归母净利润 1.77 亿元，同比+22.9%，扣非归母净利润 1.93 亿 元，同比+19.73%。 投资要点: 主业增长稳健，单 Q3 收入同比下滑主要系剥离一只酸奶牛影响。 公司单 Q3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.15 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 470 million yuan, an increase of 24.4% year-on-year [1]. - The company's core categories, particularly low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt, continue to grow despite a challenging market environment, driven by its "fresh strategy" [1][2]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 6.4%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a decrease in raw milk prices and an improved product mix [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.79 billion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 180 million yuan, up 22.9% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin was 28.8%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from a favorable raw milk price environment and a shift towards higher-end products [2]. Strategic Insights - The company is focusing on its "fresh strategy," which emphasizes innovation and brand positioning, leading to growth in its core product categories [1][2]. - The DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) business is rapidly growing, contributing to market share expansion [1]. Profit Forecast - The report adjusts profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 560 million yuan, 670 million yuan, and 800 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 29.0%, 21.4%, and 18.5% [3]. - The projected PE ratios for the same years are 19, 16, and 13 times [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience in its performance during the off-season, maintaining a high level of profitability. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 8.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 470 million yuan, an increase of 24.4% year-on-year [2]. - The low-temperature fresh milk business showed steady growth, reflecting the company's strong operational resilience. The company continued to implement its "Fresh and Sour Dual Strong" strategy, enhancing its market share through improved channel coverage [2][3]. - The decline in raw milk prices and structural optimization contributed to an increase in gross profit margins. The company achieved a gross margin of 29.1% for the first three quarters, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 5.8% [3]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects net profits attributable to shareholders to be 550 million yuan, 650 million yuan, and 790 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 27.4%, 19.0%, and 21.5% [4][7]. - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19, 16, and 13 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][7]. - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2024 was reported at 28.8%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective cost management and a shift towards higher-end products [3].

1 证券代码：002946 证券简称：新乳业 新希望乳业股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2024-005 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...