Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 13.89 CNY, based on a 2024 PE of 20.03 times [13]. Core Insights - The company has optimized its product structure, leading to improved profitability [2]. - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 10.987 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 431 million CNY, up 19.27% year-on-year [9]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 26.87%, an increase of 2.83 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin of 29.38% in Q1 2024, up 2.32 percentage points year-on-year [10]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue (in million CNY): - 2022: 10,006 - 2023: 10,987 - 2024E: 12,067 - 2025E: 13,097 - 2026E: 14,106 - Revenue Growth Rate (%): - 2022: 11.59% - 2023: 9.80% - 2024E: 9.83% - 2025E: 8.53% - 2026E: 7.71% [3][4]. - Net Profit (in million CNY): - 2022: 361 - 2023: 431 - 2024E: 593 - 2025E: 756 - 2026E: 952 - Net Profit Growth Rate (%): - 2022: 15.68% - 2023: 19.27% - 2024E: 37.74% - 2025E: 27.32% - 2026E: 25.98% [3][4]. Product and Market Performance - The company has seen double-digit growth in low-temperature products, with high-end fresh milk growing nearly 40% year-on-year [12]. - The company’s DTC revenue grew over 15%, with remote e-commerce increasing by over 40% [12]. - New product revenue accounted for 12% of total revenue in 2023, contributing to growth [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 20% relative to the market index in the next six months [1][26]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.99 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 430 million yuan, up 19.3% [1][2]. - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.61 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.7% growth, and a net profit of 90 million yuan, which is a significant increase of 46.9% [1][2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.50 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders [1]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2023, the liquid milk segment generated 9.76 billion yuan in revenue, growing by 11.2% year-on-year, supported by a strong product development strategy [2]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 26.9%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points, attributed to lower raw milk prices and optimized product mix [3]. - The net profit margin for 2023 was 4%, showing a 0.4 percentage point improvement [3]. Strategic Planning - The company has outlined a strategic plan for 2023-2027, aiming for double-digit revenue growth and a doubling of net profit margin, focusing on organic growth supplemented by acquisitions [4]. - The product strategy emphasizes low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt, targeting a compound annual growth rate of no less than 20% for high-end fresh milk over five years [4]. - The direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel is expected to be the primary growth driver, with a target revenue contribution of 30% by 2027 [4]. Financial Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 570 million yuan, 710 million yuan, and 840 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 0.66 yuan, 0.82 yuan, and 0.97 yuan [4][6]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the same years are 15x, 12x, and 10x, indicating a favorable valuation trend [4][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2][19]. Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in its main business, continuing to progress towards its "Five-Year Plan" [2][19]. - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 10.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 430 million yuan, up 19.3% year-on-year [4][19]. - The company aims to enhance its core business and improve profitability, with a target of doubling net profit over five years [19]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company's revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and other businesses was 9.755 billion, 79 million, and 1.153 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.15%, 11.28%, and -0.53% [6]. - The company reported a gross margin of 26.87% in 2023, an increase of 2.83 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw material prices [6][19]. - The net profit margin for 2023 was 3.92%, up 0.31 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin excluding non-recurring items was 4.23%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points [6]. Future Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 11.647 billion, 12.345 billion, and 13.086 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 540 million, 659 million, and 795 million yuan [19][22]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.62, 0.76, and 0.92 yuan respectively, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16, 13, and 11 [19][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [13][11]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady strategic progress and enhanced profitability, with 2023 revenue reaching 10.987 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.80%, and a net profit of 431 million yuan, adjusted for a year-on-year increase of 19.27% [3][11]. - The company's gross margin improved due to declining raw milk prices and product structure optimization, with gross margins of 26.87% for the full year 2023 and 29.38% for Q1 2024 [3][11]. - The company is actively developing its D2C channels, with revenue from this segment growing over 15% year-on-year [3][11]. Financial Performance Summary - 2023 revenue by product: liquid milk 9.755 billion yuan (+11.15%), milk powder 780 million yuan (+11.28%), and other products 1.153 billion yuan (-0.53%) [3]. - Revenue by region in 2023: Southwest 4.095 billion yuan (+9.98%), East China 3.020 billion yuan (+4.80%), Northwest 1.424 billion yuan (-0.97%), North China 1.109 billion yuan (+39.03%), and others 1.339 billion yuan (+14.90%) [3]. - Revenue by channel in 2023: direct sales 5.588 billion yuan (+10.22%) and distribution 4.247 billion yuan (+12.41%), with e-commerce revenue at 880 million yuan (+20.51%) [3]. Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2024-2025 has been adjusted to 550 million yuan and 663 million yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2026 at 742 million yuan [3][12]. - Corresponding EPS for 2024-2026 is projected at 0.64, 0.77, and 0.86 yuan, with current P/E ratios of 15, 13, and 11 times [3][12].

公 司 研 究 [数据日期 Table_cominfo] 2024/04/26 收盘价 9.88 总股本(万股) 86,581 流通A股/B股(万股) 84,927/0 资产负债率(%) 70.38% 市净率(倍) 3.21 净资产收益率(加权) 3.50 12个月内最高/最低价 17.49/8.10 公 司 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 新乳业 沪深300 [新乳业（ Table_NewTitle] 002946）：深化"鲜立方"战 略，盈利水平持续提升 ——公司简评报告 ➢ 事件：4月25日，公司发布2023年年报及2024年一季报，公司2023年营业总收入为109.87 亿元，同比+9.80%，归母净利润为4.31亿元，同比+19.27%，扣非归母净利润4.65亿元， 同比+57.86%。其中，2023年Q4公司营业收入为27.93亿元，同比+10.56%，归母净利润 为0.50亿元，同比-2.09%，扣非归母净利润为0.74亿元，同比+55.64%。2024年Q1公司营 业收入为26.14亿元，同比+3. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company focuses on low-temperature fresh milk, with a 54% year-on-year increase in net profit excluding non-recurring items in Q3 [9]. - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected to be 10.99 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.80% [9]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 5.61 billion yuan, 7.09 billion yuan, and 8.56 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 30.24%, 26.36%, and 20.78% [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is 10,987.29 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.80% [5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is 430.83 million yuan, reflecting a 19.27% increase year-on-year [5]. - The company's gross profit margin for 2023 is 26.87%, up 2.84 percentage points year-on-year [9]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) for 2023 is 16.85% [5]. Business Performance - The liquid milk and milk powder segments showed steady growth, with revenues of 9,755 million yuan and 790 million yuan respectively, both increasing by over 11% year-on-year [9]. - The company’s distribution channels have expanded, with a 42.74% year-on-year increase in distributor revenue in the second half of 2023 [9]. - The company has launched new products, with new product revenue accounting for 12% of total revenue in 2023 [9]. Market Position - The company has maintained a strong market share in the fresh milk segment, with a nearly 40% year-on-year growth in its high-end product line [9]. - The company’s online direct sales revenue increased by 20.51% year-on-year, indicating robust growth in e-commerce channels [9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 12.22 billion yuan, 13.48 billion yuan, and 14.73 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 15 in 2024 to 10 in 2026, indicating potential for value appreciation [9].

公 司 研 究 | --- | --- | |-----------------------|---------------------------| | | | | 张宇光（分析师） | 叶松霖（分析师） | | zhangyuguang@kysec.cn | yesonglin@kysec.cn | | S0790520030003 | 证书编号： S0790521060001 | 2023 年公司净利率同比增 0.3pct 至 3.9%，净利率如期提升。2024Q1 公司净利率 同比增 1.0pct 至 3.43%，净利率提升主因结构升级下毛利率同比增 2.3pct 至 29.4%。2024Q1 销售费用率同比增 1.6pct、管理费用率同比降 0.5pct。展望 2024 年，预计原奶价格仍会平稳略降，公司结构持续优化、原奶成本下行下预计毛利 率可提升；非经常损益预计会有所改善，净利率仍可持续提升。 股价走势图 相关研究报告 公司信息更新报告 特别声明 幅证券 主业稳步增长，净利率持续提升 投资评级：增持（维持） 坚持鲜战略，维持"增持"评级 2024Q1 净利率提升主因毛利率提升 风险提示：宏观经济 ...

研 公 研 究 告 券 ▌ 盈利预测 ▌ 风险提示 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|--------|-------------------------|--------|--------| | 预测指标 | | 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E | | | | 主营收入（百万元） | 10,987 | 12,378 | 13,712 | 15,052 | | 增长率（ %） 9.8% | | 12.7% | 10.8% | 9.8% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 431 | 663 | 822 | 1,008 | | 增长率（ %） 19.2% | | 53.9% | 24.0% | 22.6% | | 摊薄每股收益（元） | 0.50 | 0.77 | 0.95 | 1.16 | | ROE（% ） | 16.3% | 22.2% | 24.1% | 25.7% | 证券研究报告 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 3 孙山山：经济学硕士，6 年食品饮料卖方研究经验，全面覆盖食品饮料行业， 聚焦饮料子板块，深度研究白 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 being CNY 534 million, CNY 654 million, and CNY 793 million respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 24.0%, 22.3%, and 21.3% [9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of CNY 10.987 billion in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 9.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 431 million, representing a growth of 19.3% [9]. - The first quarter of 2024 showed a revenue of CNY 2.614 billion and a net profit of CNY 90 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.66% and 46.93% respectively [9]. - The company is focusing on high-end fresh milk and specialty yogurt, with high-end fresh milk products experiencing a growth rate of 40% [9]. - The direct-to-consumer (DTC) business is expected to grow over 15% in 2024, with e-commerce sales increasing by over 40% [9]. Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 26.87%, an increase of 2.84 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin for liquid milk was 28.76%, up by 2.7 percentage points [9]. - The company’s sales and management expense ratios were 15.28% and 4.28% respectively in 2023, with the sales expense ratio increasing due to heightened brand promotion and media advertising [9]. - The net profit margin for 2023 was 3.92%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.31 percentage points [9]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2023, the revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and other products was CNY 9.755 billion, CNY 790 million, and CNY 1.153 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.15%, 11.28%, and -0.53% [9]. - The company’s revenue by region showed significant growth in North China, with a year-on-year increase of 39.03% [9]. Future Projections - The report forecasts total revenues of CNY 11.514 billion, CNY 12.336 billion, and CNY 13.167 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 4.80%, 7.13%, and 6.74% [12]. - The projected earnings per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are CNY 0.62, CNY 0.75, and CNY 0.92 respectively [12].

[公司评级 Table_Invest] 买入 当前价格 10.05 元 合理价值 12.24 元 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2024-04-26 盈利预测： [Table_Finance] 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 10006 10987 11951 13428 14942 增长率（%） 11.6% 9.8% 8.8% 12.4% 11.3% EBITDA（百万元） 984 1278 1377 1592 1817 归母净利润（百万元） 361 431 530 641 758 增长率（%） 15.7% 19.3% 23.0% 21.1% 18.2% EPS（元/股） 0.42 0.50 0.61 0.74 0.88 市盈率（P/E） 31.50 22.96 16.42 13.57 11.48 ROE（%） 14.3% 16.8% 15.6% 15.2% 14.9% EV/EBITDA 15.62 10.36 8.44 6.77 5.33 数据来源：公司财务报表，广发证券发展研究中心 [Table_Contacts] [Table_Page] 年报点评|饮料乳 ...