中国广核电力股份有限公司 2025 年第三季度报告 | 证券代码：003816 | 证券简称：中国广核 | 公告编号：2025-071 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127110 | 债券简称：广核转债 | | 中国广核电力股份有限公司 2025 年第三季度报告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 重要内容提示： 1.董事会及董事、高级管理人员保证季度报告的真实、准确、完整，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并承担个 别和连带的法律责任。 2.公司负责人、主管会计工作负责人及会计机构负责人(会计主管人员)声明：保证季度报告中财务信息的真实、准确、完 整。 1 释 义 释义项 指 释义内容 董事会 指 本公司董事会 董事 指 本公司董事 本公司、公司、中国广核 指 中国广核电力股份有限公司 本集团 指 中国广核电力股份有限公司及其子公司 中广核 指 中国广核集团有限公司，为本公司的控股股东 中核集团 指 中国核工业集团有限公司，持有本公司已发行股本约 3.32% 恒健投资 指 广东恒健投资控股有限公司，持有本公司已发行股 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [5]. Core Views - The report highlights a steady growth in electricity consumption, with a total of 77,675 billion kWh from January to September, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [3][17]. - The report emphasizes the government's ongoing support for the green methanol industry, detailing various policies aimed at promoting its development [18][20]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.24%, while the public utility index increased by 1.08% and the environmental index by 1.44% [1][15]. - Within the electricity sector, thermal power increased by 2.00%, hydropower by 0.23%, and renewable energy generation by 0.55% [1][15]. Important Events - In September, the industrial electricity generation reached 8,262 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [2][16]. - The report notes a decline in thermal and wind power generation, while hydropower saw a significant increase of 31.9% [2][16]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and regional players like Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [4][9]. - The report suggests that nuclear power companies will maintain stable profitability, recommending China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [4][9]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Huadian International is rated "Outperform" with an expected EPS of 0.49 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 10.3 [9]. - Longyuan Power is also rated "Outperform" with an expected EPS of 0.76 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 22.9 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [5]. Core Views - The report highlights a stable growth in industrial electricity production, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6% for the first nine months of the year [2][16]. - It emphasizes the government's ongoing support for the development of renewable energy, particularly in the green methanol sector, which is expected to benefit from various policy initiatives [4][18]. - The report notes that the overall electricity consumption for the first nine months reached 77,675 billion kWh, reflecting a growth of 4.6% year-on-year [3][17]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.24%, while the public utility index increased by 1.08% and the environmental index by 1.44% [1][15]. - Within the electricity sector, thermal power saw a 2.00% increase, hydropower rose by 0.23%, and renewable energy generation increased by 0.55% [1][15]. Important Events - In September, the industrial electricity generation was 826.2 billion kWh, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, with daily average generation at 27.54 billion kWh [2][16]. - The report indicates a shift in growth rates among different energy sources, with thermal power declining by 5.4% and solar power increasing by 21.1% [2][16]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and regional players like Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [4]. - The report suggests that nuclear power companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are expected to maintain stable profitability [4]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Huadian International: Outperform, last close at 5.26 CNY, market cap 61.1 billion CNY, EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.49 CNY [9]. - Longyuan Power: Outperform, last close at 17.35 CNY, market cap 145.0 billion CNY, EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.76 CNY [9]. - China Nuclear Power: Outperform, last close at 9.09 CNY, market cap 187.0 billion CNY, EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.43 CNY [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [1] Core Insights - The construction of a new energy system is accelerating, with a focus on achieving carbon peak and promoting a green lifestyle [4] - In the first nine months of 2025, total electricity consumption increased by 4.6% year-on-year, totaling 77,675 billion kWh [4] - The electricity spot market is rapidly starting continuous settlement trials, with several provinces transitioning to formal operations [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report highlights the importance of accelerating the construction of a new energy system as outlined in the recent Communist Party meeting [4] 2. Electricity Consumption - Total electricity consumption for January to September 2025 reached 77,675 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [15] - Breakdown of consumption growth: - Primary industry: +10.2% - Secondary industry: +3.4% - Tertiary industry: +7.5% - Urban and rural residential consumption: +5.6% [4][15] 3. Power Generation - Cumulative power generation for January to September 2025 was 72,600 billion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [22] - Specific generation changes: - Thermal power: -1.2% - Hydropower: -1.1% - Nuclear power: +9.2% - Wind power: +10.1% - Solar power: +24.2% [22] 4. Electricity Prices - The average electricity purchase price in June 2025 was 389 RMB/MWh, down 1% year-on-year and 1.3% month-on-month [38] 5. Coal Prices - As of October 24, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 770 RMB/ton, up 9.07% year-on-year and increased by 22 RMB/ton week-on-week [45] 6. Hydropower Conditions - As of October 24, 2025, the water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 175 meters, with inflow and outflow rates increasing by 92% and 70% year-on-year, respectively [54] 7. Investment Recommendations - Focus on investment opportunities in hydropower and thermal power during peak summer demand [4] - Recommended companies include: - Thermal Power: JianTou Energy, Huadian International, Huaneng International, Guodian Power, Sheneng Shares, and Waneng Power [4] - Hydropower: Yangtze Power [4] - Nuclear Power: China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [4] - Green Energy: Longi Green Energy and others [4]

Core Viewpoint - The stocks of state-owned enterprises in China are experiencing a significant upward trend, with notable gains in specific companies such as China First Heavy Industries and China XD Electric, both reaching their daily limit up [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China First Heavy Industries and China XD Electric both hit the daily limit up, indicating strong investor interest and positive market sentiment towards these companies [1] - Other companies in the sector, including China Nuclear Engineering, China Electric Power Research Institute, and China General Nuclear Power, also saw their stock prices rise, reflecting a broader positive trend in the industry [1]

Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the Chinese electricity market from 2026 to 2032, focusing on industry trends, market dynamics, and investment opportunities [2][3][11]. Chapter Summaries Chapter 1: Overview of the Electricity Industry - Defines the electricity industry and its classifications, including regulatory frameworks and data sources used in the report [2][3]. Chapter 2: Global Electricity Industry Development - Analyzes the political and legal environment, historical development, market conditions, and competitive landscape of the global electricity sector [3][4]. - Discusses market size and forecasts, highlighting consumption and supply dynamics [3][4]. Chapter 3: Current State of the Chinese Electricity Industry - Examines technological advancements, historical development, and import/export conditions of the Chinese electricity sector [4][5]. - Analyzes market participants, supply and demand conditions, and identifies market pain points [4][5]. Chapter 4: Market Competition and Investment in China - Details the competitive landscape, including major players and their strategic positioning within the market [5][6]. - Discusses investment trends, mergers, and acquisitions in the electricity sector [5][6]. Chapter 5: Industry Chain and Supporting Layout - Provides an overview of the electricity industry chain, including resource distribution and supply conditions for various energy sources [6][7]. - Analyzes the market for upstream generation, transmission, and distribution equipment [6][7]. Chapter 6: Development of Sub-markets - Reviews the current state of various sub-markets, including thermal, hydro, wind, solar, nuclear, and biomass power generation [7][8]. Chapter 7: Regional Market Development - Analyzes the development patterns of the electricity market in key regions, focusing on generation and consumption metrics [8][9]. Chapter 8: Case Studies of Global and Chinese Enterprises - Compares the strategic positioning and operational performance of major electricity companies in China and globally [9][10]. Chapter 9: Environmental Insights and SWOT Analysis - Evaluates the economic, social, and policy environments affecting the electricity industry in China, along with a SWOT analysis [11][12]. Chapter 10: Market Prospects and Trends - Assesses the potential for growth in the Chinese electricity market and forecasts future trends [11][12]. Chapter 11: Investment Strategies and Recommendations - Discusses barriers to entry and exit, investment risks, opportunities, and strategic recommendations for investors in the electricity sector [11][12].

Core Insights - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy Index has seen a strong increase of 1.70%, with notable gains from stocks such as China Xidian up 6.61% and Shanghai Electric up 6.40% [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission has released a plan aiming for a new energy storage capacity of over 180 million kilowatts by 2027, enhancing project economics through supportive policies [5] - The demand for energy storage is expected to maintain a high growth rate, with projections indicating a 30%-40% increase in global energy storage installations over the next two years [4] Group 1: Market Performance - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF (561790) has increased by 1.63%, marking a three-day consecutive rise, with a latest price of 1.25 yuan [3] - The ETF has seen a weekly cumulative increase of 2.85% as of October 24, 2025, ranking in the top third among comparable funds [3] - The ETF's trading volume reached 416.82 million yuan with a turnover rate of 9.1% [3] Group 2: Policy and Economic Outlook - The new energy storage plan outlines a target of 180 million kilowatts by 2027, with supportive measures from provinces like Henan to enhance project viability [5] - The energy storage market is experiencing robust demand, driven by new pricing policies and increased investment from social capital [4] - The lithium battery demand is projected to exceed 2700 GWh next year, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 30% [4] Group 3: Industry Composition - The top ten weighted stocks in the Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy Index account for 47.72% of the index, including major players like Yangtze Power and China Nuclear Power [6] - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF closely tracks the index, which includes 50 listed companies involved in green energy and fossil energy sectors [5]

Core Points - China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) saw a stock price increase of 2.01% on October 27, reaching 4.07 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 205.53 billion CNY [1] - The company reported a year-to-date stock price increase of 0.87%, with a 20-day increase of 11.81% [1] - CGN's main business involves the construction, operation, and management of nuclear power plants, with electricity sales accounting for 78.27% of its revenue [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, CGN achieved operating revenue of 39.167 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 0.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.952 billion CNY, down 16.28% year-on-year [2] - Since its A-share listing, CGN has distributed a total of 26.057 billion CNY in dividends, with 13.938 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, CGN had 236,300 shareholders, a decrease of 1.50% from the previous period, with an average of 168,532 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 1.53% [2] - The second-largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 8.107 billion shares, a decrease of 858 million shares from the previous period [3]

Core Insights - The global nuclear power sector is experiencing a resurgence, with China positioned as a leading force in this transformation [2][6] - The 2025 International Energy Transformation Forum highlighted the importance of nuclear energy in achieving a clean and low-carbon global energy transition [1][6] Group 1: Global Nuclear Power Trends - The global energy structure is rapidly shifting towards clean and low-carbon sources, with nuclear energy playing an increasingly vital role [2] - In 2024, global nuclear power generation is expected to reach a ten-year high, with projections indicating that by 2050, global nuclear installed capacity will exceed 900 million kilowatts, effectively doubling [2] - China currently operates 59 nuclear power units with a total installed capacity of 62.48 million kilowatts and has 53 units under construction, totaling 62.93 million kilowatts, maintaining the world's largest nuclear power capacity [2] Group 2: China's Nuclear Power Achievements - China's nuclear power units have operated safely for over 600 reactor years, achieving the highest WANO comprehensive index score globally for nine consecutive years [2] - In 2024, 43.18% of the world's top-performing nuclear units will be from China, showcasing its "safety hard power" in nuclear energy [2] - China General Nuclear Power Group has surpassed 100 million kilowatts in clean energy capacity, reinforcing China's influence in the global clean energy sector [2] Group 3: Technological Innovations - China's nuclear power industry has achieved significant advancements, marked by the mass construction of the "Hualong One" reactor, which has over 400 key equipment items fully localized [3] - The industry supports over 5,400 enterprises in collaborative innovation, with a total of 41 units either under construction or in operation, leading globally [3] - Major companies like Dongfang Electric Group have established a robust industrial framework, ensuring stable supply capabilities for key nuclear project components [3] Group 4: Digitalization and Advanced Technologies - The nuclear power construction in China is transitioning to a model-driven and data-driven approach, enhancing project management efficiency [4] - China has over ten operational fusion devices, progressing from principle exploration to experimental stages, aiming for breakthroughs in key fusion energy technologies [4] Group 5: Open Cooperation and Global Collaboration - "Open cooperation" emerged as a consensus among forum representatives, seen as a crucial pathway for advancing global nuclear power [5] - EDF's China president emphasized the need for bilateral openness in supply chains to enhance nuclear energy's systemic value [5] - WANO aims to improve global nuclear plant safety and reliability through collaborative actions and best practice sharing [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for several companies within these industries [3][4]. Core Insights - The second industry is the main driver of electricity consumption growth, with a notable increase in electricity demand due to seasonal factors and high temperatures in Q3 [4][9]. - Global gas prices are rebounding, and expectations of a cold winter may enhance gas sales growth [18][19]. - The report highlights various investment opportunities across different energy sectors, including hydropower, green energy, nuclear power, thermal power, and gas [16][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: Q3 Second Industry Drives National Electricity Consumption - In September, total electricity consumption reached 888.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [10]. - The second industry contributed significantly to this growth, with a 5.1% increase in electricity consumption, accounting for 51% of the total growth [4][9]. - The cumulative electricity consumption from January to September was 7767.5 billion kWh, reflecting a 4.6% year-on-year growth [13]. 2. Gas: Global Gas Price Rebound and Cold Winter Expectations - As of October 24, the Henry Hub spot price was $3.21/mmBtu, showing a weekly increase of 13.96% [19][20]. - The report notes a seasonal demand increase and geopolitical factors supporting gas prices, particularly in Europe [25][37]. - The anticipated La Niña phenomenon may lead to colder winter conditions, potentially boosting gas consumption [37]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The report indicates that the power equipment sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, while the public utility, gas, and environmental protection sectors lagged [42]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - The report discusses significant developments in the energy sector, including the launch of innovative products in wind energy and updates on national energy policies [50][51]. - It highlights the performance of major companies, such as Huadian International, which reported a decrease in electricity generation due to increased renewable energy capacity [57].