Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price indicating a potential upside of over 20% within the next six months [6][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.278 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.85%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.444 billion yuan, down 18.96% year-on-year [1]. - The membership business continues to show strong growth, with revenue reaching 2.486 billion yuan, a significant increase of 26.77% year-on-year, and the effective membership scale exceeding 70 million [2]. - The company is actively enhancing its content offerings, with a notable increase in the number of new seasonal variety shows and a strong performance in original dramas, which is expected to bolster user engagement and retention [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 15.436 billion yuan, 17.149 billion yuan in 2025, and 18.521 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5.52%, 11%, and 8% respectively [5][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.902 billion yuan in 2024, 2.096 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.379 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of -46.52%, 10.21%, and 13.51% respectively [5][8]. - The company’s EBITDA is forecasted to be 7.905 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight decrease in subsequent years [5]. User Engagement and Content Strategy - The monthly active user count for the company's platform reached 268 million, placing it among the top three in the long-video industry [2]. - The company has successfully integrated AIGC technology into several programs, enhancing content production efficiency and quality [4]. - The launch of the "730 Da Mang Theater" for micro-short dramas is expected to create a unique content cluster, further diversifying the company's offerings [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a 5% year-on-year decrease in revenue for Q3 2024, amounting to 3.32 billion yuan, with gross profit declining by 24% to 990 million yuan, resulting in a gross margin drop of 7 percentage points to 30% [2] - The effective membership scale of Mango TV has exceeded 70 million, reaching a new peak, with monthly active users at 268 million, ranking among the top three in the long video industry [3] - The report anticipates that the company's leading position in the variety show sector and the launch of quality dramas will drive membership growth, leading to a revision of net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 down to 1.75 billion, 2.03 billion, and 2.22 billion yuan respectively [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company experienced a 5% decline in revenue to 3.32 billion yuan, with gross profit down 24% to 990 million yuan and a gross margin of 30% [2] - The pre-tax profit decreased by 6% to 470 million yuan, with a tax rate of 18%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 26% to 380 million yuan [2] Content and User Growth - Mango TV's variety show viewership continues to rise, with effective views reaching 2.5 billion, a 22% increase year-on-year, and a significant increase in the number of new seasonal variety shows [2] - The effective viewing share of member content has risen to 79%, up 16% year-on-year, indicating strong engagement with premium content [2] Membership and Market Position - The company has successfully increased its effective membership base to over 70 million, supported by strategic partnerships and a focus on quality content [3] - The collaboration with various partners has enhanced user engagement and contributed to the growth of the membership business [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 1.75 billion, 2.03 billion, and 2.22 billion yuan, reflecting increased content investment pressures on profit margins [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 28, 25, and 22 times for 2024-2026 [3]

传媒 分析师：乔琪 登记编码：S0730520090001 qiaoqi@ccnew.com 021-50586985 会员数量创新高，头部综艺延续热播表现 ——芒果超媒(300413)季报点评 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | ...

[Table_Main] 公司研究|可选消费|媒体Ⅱ 证券研究报告 芒果超媒(300413)公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 28 日 [Table_Title] 有效会员破 7000 万，期待 Q4 优势内容表现 ——芒果超媒(300413) 2024 年三季报点评 [Table_Summary] 事件： 公司发布 2024 年三季报。 点评： 税收政策调整影响利润增速，收入前三季度-0.85% 2024 前三季度，公司实现营业收入 102.78 亿元，同比微降 0.85%；实现 归母净利润 14.44 亿元，同比下降 18.96%，扣非归母净利润 12.26 亿元， 同比下降 23.98%，主要受税收政策调整影响，利润端略承压。分季度来看， 24Q3 单季度，公司实现营业收入 33.18 亿元，同比下降 7.14%，归母净利 润 3.80 亿元，同比下滑 27.41%，扣非归母净利润 3.14 亿元，同比下降 26.80%。费用率角度，2024 年前三季度，公司销售/管理/研发费用率为 11.87%/2.50%/1.24%，较上年同期分别下降 3.53/1.30/0.34pct。 有效会员突破 700 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance shows a decline in revenue and net profit, primarily due to increased income tax [2][3] - The company is expected to benefit from increased investment in series and content production, which is anticipated to drive membership revenue growth [5][8] - The integration of AIGC (Artificial Intelligence Generated Content) in content production is progressing well, with various applications already in place [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 33.2 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 7.14%, and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 8.74% [2][3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.80 billion yuan, down 27.41% year-over-year and 35.95% quarter-over-quarter [2][3] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 14.05%, a decrease of 3.14 percentage points year-over-year, while the gross margin was 29.15%, down 6.67 percentage points year-over-year [3] Content Strategy - The company has solidified its leading position in variety shows, with 2.5 billion effective plays in Q3 2024, a year-over-year increase of 22% [4] - The company has a clear strategy for content production across three tiers: head, mid-tier, and customized member content [4] - The effective membership scale has exceeded 70 million, marking a new high, driven by strong content offerings and innovative member benefits [5] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 150.22 billion yuan, 166.47 billion yuan, and 179.95 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 18.11 billion yuan, 21.85 billion yuan, and 23.72 billion yuan [9][10] - The company is actively pursuing international expansion, with overseas downloads of its app increasing significantly [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing a decline in revenue and net profit due to changes in corporate income tax policies, with Q3 2024 revenue at 3.318 billion yuan, down 7.14% year-on-year, and net profit at 380 million yuan, down 27.41% year-on-year [1] - The company is leveraging high-quality variety shows to drive membership conversion, with a significant increase in active users and membership numbers [1] - The introduction of the Mango AI model is expected to enhance content production, benefiting short dramas and advertisements [1] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue was 3.318 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.14% - Operating profit for Q3 2024 was 459 million yuan, down 7.32% year-on-year - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 380 million yuan, down 27.41% year-on-year - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 11.4%, and the gross margin was 29.8% [1] - The company expects to achieve revenues of 150.7 billion yuan, 163.1 billion yuan, and 173.9 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a projected net profit of 20.7 billion yuan, 23.6 billion yuan, and 25.0 billion yuan [2][4] User Engagement and Content Strategy - The company reported a total of 2.68 billion monthly active users in August, with over 70 million members [1] - The variety shows launched in Q3 2024 contributed to a 22% year-on-year increase in effective views, totaling 2.5 billion views [1] - Upcoming variety shows are expected to further enhance viewership in Q4 2024 [1] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in revenue growth post-2024, with expected revenue growth rates of 3.0% in 2024, 8.2% in 2025, and 6.6% in 2026 [2][4] - The introduction of new content and the expansion of the Mango AI model are expected to drive future growth [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking the first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company, Mango TV, is a state-owned new media platform focusing on internet video, interactive entertainment content production, and content e-commerce, being the only state-controlled long-video new media company in the A-share market. The company has shown good cost control and steady performance, with a net profit of 3.56 billion yuan in 2023 and a net profit margin of 24.3% [1][9]. - The online video industry is steadily growing, with a focus on improving profitability. The collaboration between long and short video formats is deepening, enhancing content supply to increase user stickiness. Membership fees are gradually increasing, and the internet advertising market is expected to recover [2][18]. - The company is continuously solidifying its content moat and exploring diversified monetization paths, including membership, advertising, operator partnerships, and AI integration [3][18]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 15.07 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2.99%, and net profits of 1.91 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 46.43% due to tax policy changes. The P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 26.3x, 23.7x, and 21.4x respectively [3][2]. - The company has maintained a high gross profit margin, primarily driven by its internet video business, which accounted for 90.9% of the gross profit in 2023 [12][14]. Company Overview - Mango TV is actively expanding its ecological matrix as a new type of mainstream media group backed by state capital. The company has undergone significant restructuring and development since its establishment in 2005, with a focus on integrating traditional and new media [9][10]. - The company has a total share capital of 1,870.72 million shares, with a market price of 26.80 yuan, resulting in a market capitalization of approximately 50.14 billion yuan [1]. Industry Analysis - The online video market is experiencing steady growth, with the user base becoming increasingly stable. The mobile internet monthly active users (MAU) reached 1.24 billion in June 2024, growing by 1.8% year-on-year [18][19]. - The advertising market is expected to recover alongside macroeconomic improvements, with the internet advertising market projected to reach 351.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2024 [27][28]. Operational Analysis - The company has effectively controlled sales expenses, leading to a decrease in the sales expense ratio while maintaining stable management and R&D expense ratios. The net profit margin has improved, particularly in 2023 due to one-time non-recurring gains [14][15]. - The company’s operating cash flow has shown significant growth, reaching 1.08 billion yuan in 2023, a 96.5% increase, primarily due to increased cash receipts from operating projects [15][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.278 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.85%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.444 billion RMB, down 18.96% year-on-year [2]. - The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 3.318 billion RMB, a decline of 7.14% year-on-year, with a net profit of 380 million RMB, down 27.41% year-on-year [2]. - The increase in income tax expenses due to policy adjustments has negatively impacted net profit, which decreased by 280 million RMB compared to the same period last year [2]. - The company is increasing its content reserves, which has led to a decline in operating cash flow [2]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - The company has established a three-tiered variety show development matrix, leading to a 22% year-on-year increase in effective views for its variety shows, totaling 2.5 billion views in Q3 2024 [3]. - The company launched 31 new seasonal variety shows in Q3 2024, leading the market among major platforms [3]. - The contribution of drama series to membership revenue has increased, with member content views accounting for 79% of total views, a 16% increase year-on-year [3]. - The international app downloads have risen from 130 million to 210 million, with a target of 260 million for the year [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.964 billion RMB, 2.161 billion RMB, and 2.465 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 25.53, 23.20, and 20.34 [3][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown a steady development in its core business, with expectations for quality content to drive future performance recovery [2] - Membership numbers have reached new highs, significantly boosted by popular content such as "Singer 2024," which added 18.53 million users to the Mango TV international app [3] - The company is expected to achieve a target of 260 million users for its international app in 2024, while domestic app platform members have exceeded 70 million [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 10.278 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.85%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.444 billion yuan, down 18.96% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2024, operating revenue was 3.318 billion yuan, a decline of 7.14% year-on-year, with a net profit of 380 million yuan, down 27.41% year-on-year, primarily due to changes in corporate income tax policies [2] - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, predicting net profits of 1.918 billion yuan, 2.180 billion yuan, and 2.381 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.03 yuan, 1.17 yuan, and 1.27 yuan [2] Content and Innovation - The company is set to release several high-quality shows in Q4 2024, including "Goodbye Lover 4" and "The Alley Family," which are expected to drive membership and advertising revenue growth [4] - The integration of AI-generated content (AIGC) in production is anticipated to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, with the launch of the "Shanhai Short Drama Intelligent Production Platform" [4] Key Financial Metrics - The company's projected operating revenue for 2024 is 16.044 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.7% [5] - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 33.2%, while the net margin is projected at 12.0% [5] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2024 is estimated at 26.1 times, decreasing to 21.1 times by 2026 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.318 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.14%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 380 million yuan, down 27.41% year-on-year [1]. - The new media business continues to develop, with Mango TV launching 31 variety shows in Q3 2024, ranking first among major platforms. Popular shows like "Hello, Saturday 2024" and "Chinese Restaurant 8" have performed exceptionally well [1]. - The integration of cultural technology and AI is showing initial results in cost reduction and efficiency improvement. The "Mango Large Model" has been approved for various applications, enhancing the company's AI capabilities across content creation and advertising [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.278 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.85% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.444 billion yuan, down 18.96% year-on-year [1]. - Management expenses for Q3 2024 were 257 million yuan, with a management expense ratio of 2.50%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company expects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 1.971 billion yuan, 2.156 billion yuan, and 2.419 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 25x, 23x, and 21x [1][3].