证券代码：300413 证券简称：芒果超媒 公告编号：2025-002 芒果超媒股份有限公司 关于变更持续督导独立财务顾问主办人的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 芒果超媒股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于近日收到持续督导机构财信证券 股份有限公司（以下简称"财信证券"）发来的《关于更换持续督导独立财务顾问主办 人的函》，杨伟化先生因工作变动，不再担任公司发行股份购买资产并募集配套资金 暨关联交易项目的持续督导独立财务顾问主办人。为保证持续督导工作的有序进行， 财信证券委派肖维平先生（简历详见附件）接替杨伟化先生担任持续督导独立财务顾 问主办人履行相关职责和义务。变更后，财信证券负责公司上述项目的持续督导独立 财务顾问主办人为徐行刚先生和肖维平先生。 公司对杨伟化先生在担任公司持续督导独立财务顾问主办人期间所做出的努力表 示衷心的感谢！ 特此公告。 芒果超媒股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 2 月 18 日 附件： 肖维平先生简历 肖维平，男，会计专业硕士，注册会计师，保荐代表人，曾参与南岭民爆 IPO 项 目、汉钟精机 IPO 项目、北方 ...

投资建议：考虑到公司会员业务高速增长、广告市场缓慢复苏以及海外市场贡献业绩增 量，在企业所得税政策影响下，我们调整公司 2024-2026 年营收为 146/166/183 亿 元（前值分别为 154/ 171/ 185 亿元），同比增长-0.05%/14.38%/10.00%，公司 2024-2026 年归母净利润为 14.83/ 21.05/ 23.56 亿元（前值分别为 19.0/ 21.0/ 23.8 亿元），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：政策监管风险、项目进展不及预期、广告业务恢复不及预期、会员增长不及 预期风险，业绩预告仅为初步测算结果，具体财务数据请以正式财报为准。 公司报告 | 公司点评 芒果超媒（300413） 证券研究报告 会员收入破 50 亿元，企业所得税政策落地 事件：公司于 2025 年 1 月 18 日发布 2024 年业绩预告，公司预计 2024 年实现营业 利润 16.66-20.26 亿元，同比变动区间为下降 8.4%至增长 11.4%；归母净利润 12.5-16.1 亿元，剔除净冲回 4.5 亿元递延所得税资产影响，归母净利润 17-20.6 亿 元；扣非归母净利润 15. ...

游戏、出版、广告、影视，各显神通。 作者 | 贝壳XY 编辑 | 小白 春节将至，风云君先给大家拜个早年，祝大家蛇年大吉，我们新春看消费系列也迎来收官之作——传 媒。 截至2024年末，申万传媒指数较年初上涨2.78%，区间最大涨幅64.25%。乍一看似乎不错，但在去年 强力政策催化和宏观经济调整下，这样的涨幅显然是不够看的，不仅跑输沪深300、上证指数，而且 在31个行业大类中也位列中下游。 9月下旬起，在政策助力下，传媒板块跟随大盘大涨。11月，又受到海外AI应用陆续爆发的影响，国 内AI营销、AI玩具等赛道一时成为市场焦点，带动传媒板块进一步上涨。年尾又随着热度消退而跌 回起点，仅比年初高出2.78%。 聚焦传媒板块前十大公司，包括分众传媒（002027.SZ）、芒果超媒（300413.SZ）、昆仑万维（3004 18.SZ）、三七互娱（002555.SZ）、凤凰传媒（601928.SH）、恺英网络（002517.SZ）、光线传媒 （300251.SZ）、中南传媒（601098.SH）、万达电影（002739.SZ）、东方明珠（600637.SH），表现 多数优于板块整体。 注：剔除被实施风险警示股票S ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [14]. Core Views - The company has achieved record highs in membership business and a recovery in advertising revenue, driven by high-quality content [6][9]. - The impact of tax policy changes has led to significant fluctuations in profit, with a notable increase in net profit for 2023 due to the recognition of deferred tax assets [8]. - The company’s effective membership size reached 73.31 million by the end of 2024, an increase of approximately 6.78 million from the end of 2023, with membership revenue growing by 18% to over 5 billion yuan [8][9]. - Advertising revenue showed a recovery in the second half of 2024, with an estimated total of 3.58 billion yuan for the year, marking a shift from negative to positive growth [8][9]. - The company has a rich content reserve, with several popular shows and series set to be released in 2025, which is expected to support ongoing growth in membership and advertising [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts operating profit for 2024 to be between 1.666 billion yuan and 2.026 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -8.41% to +11.38% [5]. - The expected net profit for 2024 is projected to be between 1.250 billion yuan and 1.610 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 54.72% to 64.85% year-on-year [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are estimated at 0.78 yuan, 1.16 yuan, and 1.25 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 34.88, 23.32, and 21.64 [9]. Market Data - As of January 23, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is 27.15 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 27.739 billion yuan [1]. - The company’s net asset return rate is 6.40%, and the asset-liability ratio stands at 30.69% [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance forecast aligns with expectations, confirming a turning point in its business [1] - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 16,128 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a 10.2% year-on-year growth [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 2,326 million yuan in 2025, representing a 62.1% year-on-year increase [6] - The company has seen a significant increase in membership revenue, with over 50 million yuan in annual income, an 18% increase year-on-year [8] - Advertising revenue is expected to rebound, with a projected total of approximately 35.8 million yuan for the year, ending a downward trend [8] - The company is benefiting from tax exemptions for its cultural enterprises from 2024 to 2027, which will positively impact profits [8] - The company is expected to maintain its market share and continue to grow, supported by strong content and user engagement [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 14,628 million yuan, with a projected increase to 16,128 million yuan in 2025 [6][10] - The net profit for 2023 is 3,556 million yuan, with a forecasted decrease to 1,435 million yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 2,326 million yuan in 2025 [6][10] - The company's gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 27.9% in 2025 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 6.3% in 2024 to 9.2% in 2025 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has achieved record high membership revenue, with advertising business showing signs of recovery and high-quality content continuously being released [1] - The company expects its operating profit for 2024 to be between 1.666 to 2.026 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -8.41% to +11.38% [4] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is between 1.25 to 1.61 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of -64.85% to -54.72% [4] - The company is expected to benefit from a tax exemption policy from 2024 to 2027, which has already been implemented [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2024-2026, predicting net profits of 1.476, 2.081, and 2.343 billion yuan respectively [4] Membership and Revenue Growth - The company reported a record high in both membership numbers and revenue, with effective membership reaching 73.31 million by the end of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.2% [5] - The average revenue per user (ARPU) increased by 18%, driving membership revenue to exceed 5 billion yuan [5] - Advertising revenue showed a quarter-on-quarter growth of 8% in the second half of 2024, contributing to an overall positive growth for the year [5] Content Production and Performance - The company has a rich reserve of film and television content, with over 100 new shows planned for release in 2025 [6] - The launch of popular shows like "National Color and Fragrance" has attracted over 40 advertising partners, indicating strong market interest [6] - The company aims to continue leveraging high-quality content to drive revenue growth [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 15.284 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.5% [8] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 31.0% in 2024, with a net profit margin of 9.7% [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted at 0.79 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 33.7 times [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve an operating profit of between 1.666 billion to 2.026 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year change of -8.41% to +11.38%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be between 1.250 billion to 1.610 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 54.72% to 64.85% due to changes in tax policies [1]. - Membership revenue has surpassed 5 billion yuan, showing an 18% year-on-year growth, which is a key driver for the company's performance [2]. - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts due to the one-time adjustment of deferred tax assets and changes in tax incentives, with expected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 being 0.77, 1.19, and 1.34 yuan respectively [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 14.628 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 4.66%. The projected revenue for 2024 is 15.012 billion yuan, a 2.63% increase [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is expected to be 1.43776 billion yuan, a decrease of 59.56% compared to 2023 [5]. Membership and Advertising Business - The membership business has achieved a revenue of over 5 billion yuan, marking an 18% increase year-on-year, contributing significantly to the overall performance [2]. - The advertising business has also shown positive growth, with an 8% increase in the second half of the year compared to the first half [2]. Content Production - The company’s content production is entering a new cycle, with successful series such as "Little Alley Family" and "National Color and Fragrance" performing well [2]. Profit Forecast Adjustments - Due to the adjustment of deferred tax assets and tax policy changes, the profit forecasts for 2024 to 2026 have been revised, with expected EPS of 0.77, 1.19, and 1.34 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 35, 22, and 20 times [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.25 to 1.61 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 64.85% to 54.72%, primarily due to the impact of deferred tax asset write-downs [1][3]. - The company anticipates a non-recurring net profit of 1.54 to 1.90 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -9.17% to +12.06% [1][3]. - Membership revenue is projected to grow by 18% to 5.09 billion yuan, with the effective membership scale of Mango TV reaching 73.31 million by year-end, marking a 10% year-on-year increase [8]. - Advertising revenue is expected to increase by 1.4% to 3.58 billion yuan, while operator revenue is projected to decline by 41% to 1.63 billion yuan [1][8]. - The GMV of Xiaomang e-commerce is expected to grow by 55% to over 16 billion yuan [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 14.628 billion yuan in 2023, with projections of 14.743 billion yuan in 2024 and 16.168 billion yuan in 2025 [11]. - The operating profit for 2024 is estimated at 1.749 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.577 billion yuan [11]. Tax Impact - The impact of tax policy on apparent profit is calculated to be -190 million yuan, influenced by the deferred tax asset adjustments [8]. Content and Membership Growth - The company has a strong content pipeline for 2025, with over 100 series planned, including major titles like "Five Blessings Arrive" and "Water Dragon Chant" [8]. - The company aims to maintain a 40% innovation rate in its variety shows, with over 100 shows in development [8]. Market Position - The company is expected to benefit from the performance of its high-quality variety shows and series, which are anticipated to drive membership growth and overall revenue [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [4][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a significant rebound in its advertising revenue and membership growth, with effective members reaching 73.31 million in 2024, leading to a membership revenue exceeding 5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18% [2][3]. - The company anticipates a strong content supply in 2025, with various new shows and series planned, which is expected to drive further growth in both membership and advertising revenues [3][10]. - The forecasted revenues for 2024-2026 are 14.745 billion, 16.197 billion, and 18.186 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.409 billion, 2.040 billion, and 2.791 billion yuan [10][12]. Summary by Sections Membership and Revenue Growth - The company reported a total of 73.31 million effective members by the end of 2024, indicating a solid foundation of quality content and the success of its international app expansion plan [3]. - Membership revenue is projected to be over 5 billion yuan in 2024, marking an 18% increase year-on-year [3]. Advertising Revenue and Content Supply - Advertising revenue is showing positive growth, with a projected 8% increase in the second half of 2024 compared to the first half [3]. - The company plans to launch a variety of new content in 2025, including dramas and variety shows, which is expected to enhance viewer engagement and drive revenue [3][10]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 14.745 billion yuan for 2024, with a net profit of 1.409 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decrease of 60.4% year-on-year due to tax adjustments [10][12]. - For 2025, revenues are expected to rise to 16.197 billion yuan, with net profits rebounding to 2.040 billion yuan, a 44.8% increase [10][12].

Financial Projections - The estimated operating profit for 2024 is projected to be between RMB 1,666 million and RMB 2,026 million, representing a year-on-year change of -8.41% to +11.38%[3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between RMB 1,250 million and RMB 1,610 million, indicating a significant year-on-year decline of -64.85% to -54.72%[3] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is forecasted to be between RMB 1,540 million and RMB 1,900 million, with a year-on-year change of -9.17% to +12.06%[3] Membership and Revenue Growth - The number of effective members for Mango TV reached 73.31 million by year-end, marking a new high[7] - Revenue from the membership business exceeded RMB 5 billion for the first time, achieving a year-on-year growth of 18%[8] Advertising and E-commerce Performance - The advertising business showed recovery, with a 8% increase in revenue in the second half of the year compared to the first half[8] - The GMV for Xiaomang E-commerce is expected to exceed RMB 16 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 55%[8] Tax and Policy Benefits - The company will benefit from a tax exemption policy for cultural enterprises, which will positively impact net profit from 2024 to 2027[8] Strategic Focus and Recognition - The company is focusing on integrating culture and technology to enhance operational stability and optimize structure[5] - The company has been recognized as one of the "Top 30 Cultural Enterprises" in China for the fifth consecutive time and ranked 19th among the "Top 100 Internet Comprehensive Strength Enterprises" in 2024[7]