投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 元月中阳收官在即，消费初显端倪 朝闻道 20260130 市场策略 元月中阳收官在即，2 月谨慎乐观 风格策略 周期轮动续力，消费初显端倪 行业策略 生猪：预期极度悲观，配置价值凸显 主题策略 食品饮料：赔率优化，胜率初显 风险提示 畜禽价格不及预期；畜禽疫病大规模爆发；原材料价格大幅波动；需求不及预期；食品安全、产业政策调 整等。 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 30 日 江韶军 执业证书编号：S0860525090001 jiangshaojun@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 于震荡中护慢牛，自中盘处取超额：朝闻 道 20260128 2026-01-27 震荡依旧，结构为王：朝闻道 20260126 2026-01-25 慢牛预期强化，把握中盘蓝筹：朝闻道 20260123 2026-01-21 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 临近月末再回首，1 月经历了先突破后盘整，中阳收官在即，依旧符合我们"横盘前 震荡，略有走强"的中期判断。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aquaculture sector experienced a rise of 1.85% on January 29, with Fu Cheng Co., Ltd. leading the gains, while the overall market showed mixed results with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.16% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.3% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The aquaculture sector's performance was highlighted by Fu Cheng Co., Ltd. closing at 6.46, up by 5.38% with a trading volume of 347,300 shares and a transaction value of 223 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers included Mu Yuan Co., Ltd. at 46.33, up by 2.64%, and Wen's Foodstuffs Group at 15.55, up by 1.97% [1] - The overall trading volume for the aquaculture sector was significant, with Mu Yuan Co., Ltd. alone accounting for a transaction value of 2.824 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The aquaculture sector saw a net inflow of 253 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 82.155 million yuan [2] - Main funds showed a positive net inflow in companies like Mu Yuan Co., Ltd. with 24.6 million yuan and Wen's Foodstuffs Group with 95.752 million yuan [3] - Conversely, retail investors showed significant outflows in companies such as Mu Yuan Co., Ltd. with 132 million yuan and Fu Cheng Co., Ltd. with 6.78 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Wens Foodstuff Group Co., Ltd. has experienced a decline of 7.64% since the beginning of the year, with significant fluctuations in trading volume and market capitalization, indicating potential investor concerns about the company's performance and market conditions [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 29, Wens' stock price rose by 2.23% to 15.59 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 743 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.81%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 103.735 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, Wens' stock has decreased by 7.64%, with a 0.70% drop over the last five trading days, an 8.94% decline over the last 20 days, and a 12.95% decrease over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Wens achieved a revenue of 75.788 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.54%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.98% to 5.256 billion CNY [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Wens has distributed a total of 30.11 billion CNY in dividends, with 6.281 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Wens was 81,100, a decrease of 10.94% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per person increased by 12.11% to 73,543 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 144 million shares, an increase of 5.5013 million shares compared to the previous period, while E Fund's ChiNext ETF reduced its holdings by 19.091 million shares to 113 million shares [3].

Group 1 - The aquaculture sector increased by 0.38% on January 28, with Xiaoming Co. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4151.24, up 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14342.9, up 0.09% [1] - Xiaoming Co. saw a closing price of 21.63, with a rise of 10.41%, and a trading volume of 224,700 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 468 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The main funds in the aquaculture sector had a net inflow of 163 million yuan, while retail funds had a net inflow of 149 million yuan [2] - The stock "Wens Foodstuffs" had a significant trading volume of 713,100 shares, with a transaction value of 1.089 billion yuan, but experienced a slight decline of 0.52% [2] - The stock "Xiaoming Co." had a net inflow of 20.89 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds showed a net outflow of 7.58 million yuan [3]

1月初以来，农药化工板块持续回暖，开启周期修复行情；农业另一子板块生猪养殖却持续回调，短期 或已充分反应业绩悲观预期。资金连续两日逆势净流入农业ETF华夏（516810.SH），或逢低布局修复 行情，以及博弈2月重要政策预期。 东方证券表示，2026年农业是拐点向上的年份，养殖、种植将依次发力，带来板块趋势上行，建议重点 关注。尤其是生猪养殖板块，优质公司持续盈利和分红率提升依然是推动板块长期业绩和估值提升的核 心驱动；近期政策与市场合力推动生猪养殖行业产能去化，助力未来板块业绩长期提升。 农业ETF华夏（516810.SH）被动跟踪中证农业主题指数，农林牧渔+基础化工含量93.64%，前十大权 重股包括牧原股份、温氏股份、海大集团、藏格矿业、盐湖股份、亚钾国际等，牧原股份+温氏股份合 计权重占比近25%。 消息面上，据新浪报道，养殖龙头公司牧原股份传最快2月香港上市。业绩方面，牧原股份2025年业绩 预告显示，第四季度业绩预计中值实现盈利，成本降幅领先行业，体现龙头公司穿越周期的韧性； ...

证券日报网讯1月27日，温氏股份（300498）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司开展股权激励的 目的在于充分调动公司各级干部和骨干员工的积极性，吸引和留住核心人才，实现公司利益、股东利益 和员工个人利益的有机统一，促进公司长期、稳定和可持续发展，最终为股东带来持续的回报。从历史 实践来看，公司此前推出的股权激励已有效达成了上述目标。公司管理层始终高度重视全体股东利益， 对股价表现保持密切关注，并致力于通过提升公司经营业绩来维护和提升公司市值。公司将继续努力， 以更好的业绩回馈股东。 ...

Investment Rating - The overall industry rating is "Positive" for the agriculture sector, indicating expected returns above the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [7][52]. Core Views - The pig price has rebounded during the peak season, with the national average price at 12.97 CNY/kg, an increase of 0.19 CNY from last week. The average price for 15 kg piglets is 28.03 CNY/kg, up by 2.89 CNY [6][18]. - The livestock industry is experiencing a slowdown in output growth, with a decrease in slaughter rates. The operating rate of large-scale slaughterhouses is 36.48%, down 2.1 percentage points from last week and 24.63 percentage points year-on-year [6][18]. - The industry is transitioning from losses to profitability, although the pace of capacity reduction is slowing. As of December 2025, the number of breeding sows is 39.61 million, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year [7][19]. - The chicken industry is facing high capacity levels, with prices expected to fluctuate in the medium term. The average price for broiler chickens is 3.7 CNY/kg, down 0.07 CNY from last week [8][21]. - The yellow chicken market is experiencing low capacity levels, with prices expected to rise in the medium term due to tight supply and seasonal demand [22][21]. Summary by Sections Livestock Industry - The pig price has rebounded, but the increase is narrowing. The average price is 12.97 CNY/kg, with a slight increase in piglet prices [6][18]. - The operating rate of slaughterhouses has decreased, indicating a slowdown in the output growth of listed companies [6][18]. - The industry is moving towards profitability, but the capacity reduction is slowing down, with breeding sow numbers at 39.61 million [7][19]. Poultry Industry - The chicken industry is at a high capacity level, with prices expected to remain stable in the medium term. The average price for broiler chickens is 3.7 CNY/kg [8][21]. - The yellow chicken market is experiencing low capacity, with prices expected to rise due to seasonal demand [22][21]. Crop Industry - Grain prices are on the rise, with corn at 2376 CNY/ton and wheat at 2525 CNY/ton, indicating a positive outlook for the planting sector [11][24]. - The seed industry is benefiting from favorable policies and technological advancements, with long-term investment value highlighted [10][23]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends buying shares in Zhongchong Co., Muyuan Foods, and Suqian Agricultural Development, all rated as "Buy" [4].

Core Viewpoint - Yunfu has successfully transitioned from an agricultural city to an agricultural powerhouse, achieving a total agricultural output value exceeding 100 billion yuan, driven by practical efforts and strategic development initiatives [8][20]. Group 1: Agricultural Development - The total output value of modern agriculture in Yunfu rose from 58.6 billion yuan in 2021 to 100.6 billion yuan in 2025, marking a significant milestone [20][21]. - The city focuses on "integrated" development, promoting the upgrade of agriculture from traditional farming to a collaborative model involving primary, secondary, and tertiary industries [9][10]. - Local enterprises like Wens Foodstuff Group, which is a top 500 company in China, play a crucial role in leading the agricultural industry, with a chicken market volume exceeding 1.3 billion birds, ranking first in Asia [11][12]. Group 2: Specialty Products and Industry Upgrades - Yunfu is recognized for its unique agricultural products, including the "no-core yellow skin" fruit, "Luoding cinnamon," and "Chinese native chicken," which have gained national and global acclaim [14][15]. - The city has established a complete agricultural production system with leading enterprises, creating 2 national and 15 provincial modern agricultural industrial parks [13]. - The local cinnamon industry, particularly Luoding cinnamon, is positioned as a key driver for county development and rural revitalization, supported by national geographical indication product certification [28][29]. Group 3: Rural Revitalization and Economic Growth - The "Hundred-Thousand-Million Project" is a strategic initiative aimed at promoting coordinated urban-rural development, resulting in significant economic growth in county and town economies [49][50]. - Three county-level industrial parks have been cultivated, with notable growth in town economies, leading to a 30% increase in total economic output across three towns [55][56]. - Over 85% of administrative villages have achieved the standard of beautiful and livable villages, reflecting the success of rural construction efforts [58][60].

格隆汇1月27日丨温氏股份(300498.SZ)在互动平台表示，公司近几年持续降低负债率水平。截至2025年 三季度末，公司负债率降至49.4%，在行业企业中处于比较优秀的水平。 ...

证券时报·数据宝统计显示，温氏股份今日收盘价为15.33元，下跌2.67%，日换手率为1.06%，成交额为 9.70亿元，全天主力资金净流出7935.80万元，近5日该股累计下跌2.91%，近5日资金合计净流入4403.70 万元。 两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为11.10亿元，近5日增加4169.77万元，增幅为3.90%。（数据宝） 1月27日温氏股份大宗交易一览 | 成交量 | 成交金 | 成交价 | 相对当日收 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | （万 | 额（万 | 格 | 盘折溢价 | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | 股） | 元） | （元） | （%） | | | | | | | | 中国中金财富证券有限公司 | 中国中金财富证券有限公司 | | 19.20 | 241.92 | 12.60 | -17.81 | 云浮新兴东堤北路证券营业 | 云浮新兴东堤北路证券营业 | | | | | | 部 | 部 | 温氏股份1月27日大宗交易平台出现一笔成交，成交量19.20万股，成交金额241.92万元，大宗交易成交 价为12.60元，相 ...