Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes a structural transformation in the capital market, focusing on rebuilding confidence and addressing external demand pessimism [3][4] - The investment logic suggests a shift from cyclical growth to cyclical value, with a resilient cycle expected in 2026, highlighting the value attributes of leading companies [9] - Key assumptions include a gradual decrease in the breeding sow inventory and proactive capacity control by pig companies, which may lead to reduced supply pressure and potential price recovery for pigs in 2026 [8] Group 2 - The report identifies specific companies to focus on, such as leading low-cost and high-certainty firms like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, as well as high-growth smaller pig companies [7] - The report outlines potential risks, including the possibility of breeding sow inventory not decreasing as expected, which could lead to an oversupply of pigs and downward pressure on prices [8] - The report also discusses the beef market, indicating that if the import impact continues, it could lead to downward pressure on beef prices, affecting the profitability of beef companies [16][24] Group 3 - In the poultry sector, the report highlights that the yellow chicken market may see price increases if breeding stocks continue to decline, while the white chicken market is expected to recover as macroeconomic activities improve [25][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer demand in the poultry market, noting that weak demand could lead to price declines and pressure on company performance [27][32] - The report suggests that the animal health sector will benefit from the recovery of livestock profitability, with a focus on companies that have strong R&D capabilities and product pipelines [33][36] Group 4 - The grain sector is expected to see upward price trends due to adverse weather conditions affecting crop yields, with a focus on companies involved in seed production and transgenic varieties [40][41] - The report warns of potential risks in the seed industry, including weak demand for new varieties, which could lead to price declines and increased pressure on seed companies [44][45] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring government policies regarding the commercialization of new seed varieties, as delays could impact market expectations [46][48] Group 5 - The report provides a risk assessment for recommended stocks, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, indicating potential risks related to pig output and price declines [50][56] - The report emphasizes the need for continuous monitoring of key indicators, such as breeding sow inventory and market prices, to assess the performance of the companies in the livestock sector [56]

S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 2025 年 12 月 30 日 生猪养殖行业深度报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，东莞证券研 究所 超配（维持） 关注产能去化 布局盈利拐点 深 农林牧渔行业 | 图 | 27：SW 生猪养殖板块单季营收同比增速（%） 12 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 图 | 28：SW 生猪养殖板块单季归母净利润同比增速（%） 12 | | | 图 29：SW | 生猪养殖板块单季度毛利率净利率（%） 13 | | | 图 | 30：SW 生猪养殖板块单季度期间费用率（%） 13 | | | 图 | 31：我国生猪养殖年出栏户数占比（%） | 14 | | 图 | 32：我国生猪行业规模化程度（%） | 14 | 推荐 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： 我国是全球最大的生猪及猪肉产需国。根据美国农业部2025年4 月份《牲畜和家 ...

Market Overview - In 2025, the A-share market achieved a historic breakthrough driven by enhanced national governance and increased confidence in technology, with major indices significantly elevated and the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 4000 points [3] - The total market capitalization exceeded 100 trillion yuan, with active trading and a clear focus on technology growth [3] - The outlook for 2026 suggests a consolidation phase for the A-share market, characterized by "sideways fluctuations with slight strengthening," supported by positive expectations for national governance and long-term development [3] Sector Strategy - The mid-cap blue-chip stocks are positioned as a stabilizing force in the market, with a shift in risk appetite leading funds from extreme technology and dividend styles to the mid-range, providing opportunities for mid-cap blue chips [4] - The performance of cyclical sectors (non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals) and manufacturing (communications, military) has been validated by the market, suggesting a focus on the long-dormant consumer sector and waiting for new catalysts in technology growth [4] Industry Insights - The pig farming sector is viewed as having significant value due to extremely pessimistic expectations, with recent policies and market dynamics driving capacity reduction, which is expected to enhance long-term performance [5] - The market's pessimism regarding pig prices for 2026 is seen as underestimating inventory and capacity reduction, with historical trends indicating a likely market-driven capacity reduction [5] - The humanoid robot sector is anticipated to see rapid advancements in motion control in 2025, with mass production becoming a key focus in 2026, driven by the evolution of brain models [6] - Companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in the components sector are expected to benefit from the future of mass production in humanoid robots [6]

华商消费行业股票（004189）成立日期2017年3月15日，最新规模1854.82万。今年以来收益0.62%，同 类排名4053/4195；近一年亏损0.5%，同类排名4028/4179；成立以来亏损19.76%。 12月30日，温氏股份涨1%，截至发稿，报17.09元/股，成交3.39亿元，换手率0.33%，总市值1137.16亿 元。温氏股份股价已经连续3天上涨，区间累计涨幅1.74%。 资料显示，温氏食品集团股份有限公司位于广东省云浮市新兴县新城镇东堤北路9号，成立日期1993年7 月26日，上市日期2015年11月2日，公司主营业务涉及肉鸡和肉猪养殖及其产品销售,主要产品为肉鸡和 肉猪。主营业务收入构成为：肉猪类养殖65.67%，肉鸡类养殖30.34%，其他养殖类1.90%，兽药 0.78%，肉制品加工产品0.59%，工程、设备类0.58%，其他0.14%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，华商基金旗下1只基金重仓温氏股份。华商消费行业股票（004189）三季度增持8200股，持 有股数4.48万股，占基金净值比例为4.49%，位居第二大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约7616元。 连续3天上涨期间 ...

未来，在非洲猪瘟等重大疫病的区域净化、种猪遗传改良的"卡脖子"技术突破、养殖废弃物资源化利用 的前沿探索等方面，两大巨头均有潜力开展更具实质性的联合研发或数据共享，从而降低整个行业的系 统性风险，提升中国生猪产业的核心竞争力。 生猪养殖行业龙头企业多年来不断向外透露出共赢发展的理念。 作为生猪养殖行业的两大巨头，牧原股份与温氏股份近年来在生产规模及养殖技术等方面实现大幅提 升，成为行业践行高质量发展的典范。 2025年接近尾声之际，12月26日至27日，温氏股份副总裁张祥斌一行到访牧原股份，双方团队在种猪与 健康管理、饲料营养、猪场设计与环保等方面坦诚交流分享，在经验互学互鉴中实现了共同提升。 在生猪行业当前大力践行"反内卷"的背景下，此番两家龙头企业的深入交流，无疑传递出了养殖企业正 从过往以规模扩张和价格竞争为主导的"内卷"泥潭中抽身，积极探索以开放协同、技术共享、生态共建 为特征的"竞合"新路径，为破局"猪周期"困局、构筑长期健康发展的产业新生态提供了关键范本。 据了解，本次交流中双方已凝聚了一个关键共识，即生猪养殖行业当下的核心矛盾已非简单的市场份额 之争，而是如何共同应对生产效率瓶颈、资源环境约束与 ...

根据调研日期截止日统计，近10日（12月16日至12月29日），海外机构对50家上市公司进行调研，其 中，上汽集团最受关注，被17家海外机构密集调研。 海外机构调研榜单中，上汽集团参与调研的海外机构达到17家，最受关注；其次是温氏股份，参与调研 的海外机构共有8家。 从股价表现看，获海外机构调研股近10日平均上涨4.51%。其中，股价上涨的有普利特、麦澜德等，表 现最好的是普利特，累计涨幅为24.76%。股价下跌的有12只，跌幅最大的是华利集团，累计跌幅为 12.42%。（数据宝） 2 51.33 -12.42 纺织服饰 近10日海外机构调研股 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 海外机构家数 | 最新收盘价（元） | 其间涨跌幅（%） | 行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002324 | 普利特 | 1 | 15.42 | 24.76 | 基础化工 | | 688273 | 麦澜德 | 1 | 41.73 | 21.88 | 医药生物 | | 300446 | 航天智造 | 1 | 25.24 | 14.68 | 汽车 | | 000700 | 模塑科技 ...

进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生15笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为8153.04万元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，温氏股份今日收盘价为16.92元，上涨1.14%，日换手率为0.72%，成交额为 7.28亿元，全天主力资金净流入7672.61万元，近5日该股累计下跌0.65%，近5日资金合计净流入1626.68 万元。 两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为9.20亿元，近5日增加3050.36万元，增幅为3.43%。 温氏股份12月29日大宗交易平台出现一笔成交，成交量23.03万股，成交金额308.14万元，大宗交易成交 价为13.38元，相对今日收盘价折价20.92%。该笔交易的买方营业部为中国中金财富证券有限公司云浮 新兴东堤北路证券营业部，卖方营业部为中国中金财富证券有限公司云浮新兴东堤北路证券营业部。 | 成交量 | 成交金 | 成交价 | 相对当日收 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | （万 | 额（万 | 格 | 盘折溢价 | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | 股） | 元） | （元） | （%） | | | | | | | | 中国中金财富 ...

Group 1 - The aquaculture sector increased by 1.58% on December 29, with Jingji Zhino leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3965.28, up 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13537.1, down 0.49% [1] - Key stocks in the aquaculture sector showed varied performance, with Jingji Zhino rising by 10.01% to a closing price of 16.27 [1] Group 2 - The main funds in the aquaculture sector saw a net inflow of 90.42 million yuan, while retail funds had a net inflow of 10.91 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Muyuan Foods and Wen's Foodstuffs experienced significant net outflows from retail investors [3] - Jingji Zhino had a net inflow of 67.42 million yuan from main funds, indicating strong institutional interest [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hog industry is "Oscillating" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the hog market evolved from "counter - cyclical inventory accumulation" to "policy - driven inventory reduction" under the backdrop of absolute over - capacity. Despite efficiency improvements and lower feed costs, the industry entered a phase of substantial capacity reduction due to continuous policy guidance and deep losses [2][13] - In 2026, the market will show a clear pattern of "near - term weakness and long - term strength". It is recommended to adopt a reverse spread strategy as the base allocation for the whole year to capture the price difference between reality and expectations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025: Waiting for the Bottom to Come - **Q1**: A "structural bottom" supported by expectations. The pre - Spring Festival concentrated slaughter led to a short - term supply shortage after the festival. The high fat - to - standard price spread strengthened the industry's reluctance to sell, delaying capacity clearance [14] - **Q2**: An "oscillating bottom - grinding" in sentiment games. After May Day, pig prices declined. The rebound after the Dragon Boat Festival lacked fundamental support, and the market returned to an oscillating pattern [15] - **Q3**: A "re - construction of far - month contracts" driven by policies. The industry symposium in July signaled "anti - involution" and "capacity and inventory reduction", shifting the trading logic to "strong expectations" and establishing a reverse spread structure [15] - **Q4**: A "cost breakdown" after returning to reality. After the National Day, pig prices fell sharply, breaking through the cash cost line. The market focused on the substantial reduction of sow inventory and potential winter epidemic risks [16] 3.2 Market Pattern Re - shaping and the Capacity Reduction Cycle 3.2.1 Vertical Intensification of the Industry - The hog industry has entered a new stage of structural differentiation and intensive upgrading. By October 2025, large - scale enterprises dominated the industry, with listed companies and large breeding groups controlling 43.1% of the sow inventory. The industry's overall ability has improved, but price and capacity adjustments have become more sensitive [20] - Regionally, different patterns have emerged: South China is highly intensive, Northeast China has a dual - structure, and Central China is more balanced. The inter - regional price difference has become more stable, and the futures delivery area has been expanded, strengthening the linkage between futures and spot markets [23][24] 3.2.2 Cycle Development Path: Policy and Market - Driven Capacity Reduction - **Downward inflection point delay**: Thanks to cost optimization, the downward inflection point of this cycle was postponed. The industry's profit was maintained until September 2025 when the industry entered a full - scale loss phase due to inventory pressure and spot price drops [30] - **Total over - supply**: The large inventory and high出栏 volume in 2025 were due to the increase in sow capacity last year. The supply pressure was significant, and many listed companies were close to or had exceeded their annual出栏 targets [43][47] - **Capacity loosening**: Since 2025, the sow inventory has gone through four stages. Multiple data sources confirm that the industry entered a new capacity adjustment phase in the third quarter, but the reduction is still mild, and the supply is expected to remain loose until the end of Q1 2026 [52][67] 3.3 Peak出栏, Speculation Support, and Consumption 3.3.1 Piglets: Leading Indicator for出栏 Forecast - Piglets are a key indicator for predicting hog出栏. In 2025, piglet supply increased steadily, and the industry's efficiency improvement contributed to the increase in piglet births. Based on the piglet - to - hog conversion cycle, the出栏 is expected to peak in Q1 2026 and may improve in Q2 [69][70] 3.3.2 Elasticity and Support from Speculation - **Breeding speculation**: The inventory adjustment through breeding speculation affects the存栏 structure. In 2025, the industry showed long - term optimization and short - term fluctuations in the weight distribution of hogs. In 2026, post - Spring Festival low - price pressure and secondary fattening may support prices [78][80] - **Frozen product inventory**: In 2025, the frozen product inventory rate first decreased and then increased. In 2026, if there is a price reversal expectation in the second half of the year, the slaughter end may increase inventory in the first half, supporting post - Spring Festival spot prices [93][94] 3.3.3 Limited Boost from Curing Demand - Although the slaughter volume increased year - on - year, the curing demand at the end of the year had limited impact on prices. The reasons include the long - term consumption structure optimization and the postponed Spring Festival in 2026 [98] 3.3.4 Feed Data Confirmation - Feed data can confirm the hog存栏 structure. As of November, the feed sales data from different institutions showed that the feed consumption related to capacity had decreased marginally, while the fattening feed was still increasing, indicating a significant存栏 pressure [100][101] 3.4 Outlook and Investment Suggestions 3.4.1 Summary of Views - The continuous increase in sow inventory in 2024 led to an expansion of hog出栏 in 2025 and a price decline. However, factors such as lower feed costs, speculative behavior, and improved production efficiency deviated from the early market expectations. The industry may see a new upward inflection point in pig prices around Q2 2026, but the cycle evolution is complex [110][111] 3.4.2 Strategies - **Short - term (end of the year to pre - Spring Festival)**: Seize the band - trading opportunities in the oscillating market. Use an interval - oscillating strategy, and consider short - term long positions when the market is pessimistic and short positions when prices reach key resistance levels. The support level for LH2603 is 11,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 11,800 - 12,000 yuan/ton [112] - **Medium - term (post - Spring Festival to Q1 2026)**: Adopt a bearish strategy and focus on the release of supply pressure. Short positions can be added on price rebounds, but beware of potential rebounds. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities when LH2603 approaches 11,800 - 12,000 yuan/ton and LH2605 returns to 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [113][114] - **Long - term (from Q2 2026)**: Observe on the left - hand side and prepare for the cycle reversal. Shift the strategy from "short - selling" to "finding the inflection point". When the fundamental signals are confirmed, gradually build long positions in far - month contracts at the support level of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Use a flexible reverse spread strategy for arbitrage [115]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The pork industry continues to face losses, with a focus on pig farming opportunities. The average price of live pigs is 11.59 CNY/kg, down 0.46% week-on-week. The total breeding sow inventory is 39.9 million heads, down 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year. The industry is experiencing ongoing losses, with self-bred and purchased pig farming losses at 130.11 CNY/head and 162.80 CNY/head respectively. The recent anti-dumping ruling may alleviate domestic pork supply pressure, leading to accelerated capacity reduction [2][12]. Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has initiated winter crop seed supervision checks to ensure seed safety for the upcoming spring and summer planting. The checks focus on key crops such as corn, rice, soybeans, cotton, and vegetables. The commercialization of genetically modified technology is expected to accelerate, enhancing self-sufficiency rates of key varieties. Recommended stocks include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development [1][11]. Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is reported at 11.59 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.46% from the previous week. The average price for pig futures is 11,469 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.07% increase. The average weight of pigs post-slaughter is 89.57 kg, with a month-on-month increase of 3.21% in slaughter volume [12][62][65]. Recommended Stocks - For pig farming, recommended stocks include: 1. Livestock sector: Lihua Stock, Muyuan Food, Shuanghui Development, Dekang Agriculture, Jingji Zhino, and Wens Foodstuff 2. Feed sector: Haida Group 3. Animal health sector: Jinhai Biological, Biological Shares, Placo, and Zhongmu Shares [2][12].