Livestock Sector - The pig farming industry is entering a "new cost competition pattern," with overall micro-profitability expected in 2025, and leading companies becoming stronger [1] - The production capacity of breeding sows is at a reasonable high level, with policy guidance aimed at reduction, leading to weaker price fluctuations [1] - Key companies to focus on include Muyuan Foods (牧原股份), Wens Foodstuff Group (温氏股份), and Lihua Agricultural (立华股份) [1] Beef Cattle Industry - The beef cattle industry is experiencing a deep supply clearance, similar to the pig industry before 2019, with significant risks of overcapacity due to prolonged losses [2] - In November 2024, the loss per head reached over 1,600 yuan, marking eight consecutive months of losses exceeding 1,000 yuan, prompting accelerated culling of breeding cows [2] - The cow production cycle (PSY) is only 1, significantly lower than the breeding sow PSY of 30, indicating a substantial reduction in beef supply expected by 2026 [2] - Recommended stocks include Youran Dairy (优然牧业) and Fucheng Group (福成股份) [2] Edible Mushroom Industry - The industry is seeing a rational return of production capacity, with leading companies solidifying their market positions [3] - The artificial cultivation of Cordyceps is entering a performance release phase, opening a second growth curve [3] - Traditional products like enoki mushrooms are experiencing alleviated overcapacity, with stable CR5 [3]

据国金证券提供的数据显示，12月23日，猪肉平均批发价为17.5元/公斤，较12月16日上涨0.7%，猪价止跌反弹。 猪价,当月同比 月均(元/公斤) -- 猪价当月同比(%,右轴) 200 55 50 150 45 40 100 I 35 50 - 30 25 0 20 -50 15 10 -100 25-12 20-12 22-12 24-12 23-12 21-12 25-06 21-06 22-06 23-06 24-06 来源, Wind,国金证券研究所(日度数据更新至 2025. 12. 23) 华创证券指出：猪价10月中旬快速探底，创过去4年低点，毛猪&仔猪双双击破成本线，几乎同步进入亏损状态。历史经验看，全产业链的亏损通 常会带动基础产能加速去化。投资角度，预计猪价拐点有望在2026年Q2-Q3出现，猪价中枢也有望逐步抬升。当前生猪养殖板块估值水平处在相对 低位，安全边际充足。 关注生猪龙头汇聚的行业主题ETF：农业50ETF(516810.SH)，权重股包括牧原股份（002714）(14%)、温氏股份（300498）(13%)、海大集团 （002311）(6%)。在去产能过程中，生猪养殖头部 ...

Group 1: Livestock Industry - The pig industry is currently in a phase of deep losses, with supply contraction expected to continue into the first half of 2026, leading to a significant reduction in production capacity. The average pig price for 2025 is projected to be below the cost line, with quarterly estimates of 15.5 CNY/kg, 13.5 CNY/kg, 16.4 CNY/kg, and 17.7 CNY/kg, resulting in an annual average of approximately 13.4 CNY/kg [11][25][26] - The white chicken market is experiencing a cautious outlook, with a projected supply growth of less than 5% for 2026. The decline in the sales of commodity broiler chicks indicates a more conservative price expectation within the industry [30][35] - The yellow chicken sector remains stable, with production capacity not significantly affected. The prices are expected to follow trends in other protein sources, with a focus on seasonal price increases [39] - The beef market is anticipated to see a price increase due to a clear reduction in both domestic and international supply. The wholesale price of beef has been rising, reaching 66.21 CNY/kg in December, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [42][70] Group 2: Agricultural Inputs and Other Sectors - The feed industry is showing signs of recovery, with a 6.6% year-on-year increase in feed production for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating improved demand from the livestock sector [71][76] - The edible mushroom sector is witnessing a rebound, particularly with the reversal of the predicament faced by enoki mushrooms and the potential growth of new products like Cordyceps [3][80] - The pet industry continues to thrive, with a notable trend towards high-end domestic products, as evidenced by the performance of brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. [4][63] - The natural sweetener market is expected to grow as consumer awareness of sugar reduction increases, with companies like Bailong Chuangyuan and Baolingbao positioned to benefit from this trend [4][71]

Core Insights - The swine industry is entering a "cost competition new pattern," with policy adjustments leading to weak cycles and strong differentiation, resulting in overall micro-profitability in 2025, favoring leading enterprises [4][5] - The beef industry is experiencing a significant supply reduction, creating a large cycle, with domestic beef farming being highly fragmented and facing substantial overcapacity risks due to prolonged losses [4][5] - The edible fungus sector is seeing a rational return of industry capacity, with leading companies solidifying their market positions, particularly in the artificial cultivation of Cordyceps sinensis [4][5] Swine Industry - The breeding sector is characterized by a new cost competition landscape, with the overall industry expected to be micro-profitable in 2025, while leading companies maintain strong profitability [4] - The number of breeding sows is at a reasonable high level, with policies guiding reductions, leading to weaker price fluctuations [4] - Recommended companies include Muyuan Foods (牧原股份), Wens Foodstuffs (温氏股份), and Lihua Agricultural (立华股份) [4] Beef Industry - The beef industry is undergoing deep supply clearance, with significant fragmentation in domestic beef farming, where over 90% of farmers have fewer than 10 cattle [4] - In 2024, beef prices hit a five-year low, with losses exceeding 1,600 yuan per head for eight consecutive months, accelerating the elimination of breeding cows [4] - Recommended companies include Youran Dairy (优然牧业) and Fucheng Co., Ltd. (福成股份) [4] Edible Fungus Sector - The industry is rationally returning to capacity, with leading companies consolidating their market positions [4] - The artificial cultivation of Cordyceps sinensis is entering a performance release period, opening a second growth curve [4] Supply Dynamics in Swine Industry - The supply dynamics of breeding sows are changing in three phases: expansion, stabilization, and reduction, with a notable decrease in sow inventory expected in the latter half of 2025 [15][19] - The feed consumption trends indicate a correlation with sow inventory changes, with feed sales peaking in September 2025 [17] - The profitability of self-breeding operations remains positive despite recent price declines, but losses have begun to emerge as prices drop below 14 yuan per kilogram [20] Cost Trends - The overall trend in breeding costs is declining, supported by lower corn and soybean meal prices, with costs for large-scale and purchased pig farming at 12.40 yuan/kg and 13.31 yuan/kg respectively [34] - The pig-to-grain price ratio has dropped significantly, indicating worsening profitability for farmers [36] Market Opportunities - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a catalyst for market opportunities, with government efforts to guide production capacity adjustments and improve product quality [58] - The current valuation of the swine breeding sector is at historical lows, with potential for profit recovery as supply reduces and prices stabilize [60] Long-term Outlook - The long-term outlook for the swine industry is shaped by supply-side reforms and capacity reductions, with a strong expectation for capacity restructuring [64] - The policy environment is focused on reducing inefficient production capacity, enhancing the competitive position of leading companies [64]

Group 1 - The poultry concept sector declined by 0.40%, ranking among the top declines in concept sectors, with major declines seen in companies like Roniu Mountain, Yisheng Shares, and Yike Foods [1] - Among the poultry concept stocks, only two companies saw price increases, with Jingji Zhino rising by 4.49% and Tangrenshen by 0.23% [1] - The top gainers in other concept sectors included Terahertz with a rise of 4.02% and Commercial Aerospace with 3.60% [1] Group 2 - The poultry concept sector experienced a net outflow of 209 million yuan, with 17 stocks seeing net outflows, and 8 stocks exceeding 10 million yuan in outflows [1] - Roniu Mountain had the highest net outflow of 95.06 million yuan, followed by Wens Shares and Tianma Technology with outflows of 33.15 million yuan and 12.76 million yuan, respectively [1] - The top net inflows were seen in Jingji Zhino, Tangrenshen, and Shuanghui Development, with net inflows of 9.19 million yuan, 3.65 million yuan, and 2.42 million yuan, respectively [2]

猪肉概念资金流出榜 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002714 | 牧原股份 | -2.47 | 1.11 | -20439.57 | | 000735 | 罗牛山 | -3.06 | 16.52 | -9506.18 | | 002157 | 正邦科技 | -2.00 | 2.69 | -8891.43 | | 002311 | 海大集团 | -2.63 | 0.59 | -3846.61 | | 300498 | 温氏股份 | -1.01 | 0.56 | -3315.30 | | 000860 | 顺鑫农业 | 0.07 | 1.06 | -1485.98 | | 603477 | 巨星农牧 | -0.18 | 1.10 | -1271.76 | | 603363 | 傲农生物 | -0.43 | 2.41 | -1228.25 | | 002458 | 益生股份 | -2.08 | 1.18 | -1212.58 | | 000876 | 新希望 | -0.33 | 0. ...

12月24日温氏股份大宗交易一览 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，温氏股份今日收盘价为16.63元，下跌1.01%，日换手率为0.56%，成交额为 5.57亿元，全天主力资金净流出3315.30万元，近5日该股累计下跌2.41%，近5日资金合计净流出6769.98 万元。 两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为9.03亿元，近5日增加807.05万元，增幅为0.90%。 据天眼查APP显示，温氏食品集团股份有限公司成立于1993年07月26日，注册资本665392.7141万人民 币。（数据宝） 温氏股份12月24日大宗交易平台出现一笔成交，成交量34.00万股，成交金额565.42万元，大宗交易成交 价为16.63元。该笔交易的买方营业部为中信证券华南股份有限公司广东分公司，卖方营业部为机构专 用。 进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生13笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为7570.17万元。 | 成交量（万 | 成交金额 | 成交价格 | 相对当日收盘折溢 | 买方营业部 | 卖方营 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股） | （万元） | （元） | 价（%） | | 业部 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000048 | 京基督衣 | 14.20 | 4.49% | 18.81万 | 2.63亿 | | 300313 | *ST天山 | 8.35 | 1.46% | 2.60万 | 2157.61万 | | 001201 | 东瑞股份 | 14.49 | 0.28% | 2.08万 | 3005.44万 | | 603717 | 天域生物 | 7.69 | 0.26% | 6.43万 ﻛ | 4918.25万 | | 002321 | 华英农业 | 2.40 | 0.00% | 26.81万 | 6432.89万 | | 600975 | 新五丰 | 5.84 | 0.00% | 9.52万 | 5545.14万 | | 002982 | 湘佳股份 | 13.92 | -0.07% | 1.82万 | 2522.72万 | | 603477 | 巨星农牧 | 16.94 | -0.18% | 5.63万 | 9495.49万 | | 000876 ...

温氏食品集团股份有限公司近日披露投资者关系活动记录表显示，2025年1-11月，当期公司累计销售生猪3591万头，其中毛猪和鲜品3190万 头、仔猪401万头；肉鸡（含毛鸡、鲜品和熟食）销售11.9亿只，鲜品销售2.0亿只，鲜销比例达17%，熟食销售约1400万只；肉鸭（含毛鸭和鲜 品）销售约4500万只。 公司表示，本年度畜禽生产保持稳定，核心生产指标持续优化，猪业、禽业成本控制成效显著。 关于增长空间，公司指出将通过挖掘现有产能潜力实现内生增长，当前PSY（母猪年提供断奶仔猪数）为27头，规划每年至少提升1头以上，未 来争取全面突破32头；同时优化出栏结构，仔猪销售规模目标占生猪总销售规模的5%-10%，黑猪销售占比力争约5%。此外，公司明确种猪作 为核心资产，将由公司自主养殖，不委托合作农户。 对于2026年降本目标，公司表示，在考虑饲料原料价格可能略有上升的前提下，初步预计全年肉猪养殖平均综合成本在5.9元/斤左右。降本路 径将聚焦五大方向：育种技术赋能、数智技术助力、生产模式迭代、饲料营养配方优化及精益管理。 转载声明：该文章内容来源于企业公告，供大家学习、交流为目的，如侵犯原作者权益，请及时留言或 ...

据天眼查APP显示，温氏食品集团股份有限公司成立于1993年07月26日，注册资本665392.7141万人民 币。（数据宝） 12月23日温氏股份大宗交易一览 | 成交量（万 | 成交金额 | 成交价格 | 相对当日收盘折溢 | 买方营业部 | 卖方营 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股） | （万元） | （元） | 价（%） | | 业部 | | 33.50 | 562.80 | 16.80 | 0.00 | 中信证券华南股份有限公司 | 机构专 | | | | | | 广东分公司 | 用 | （文章来源：证券时报网） 温氏股份12月23日大宗交易平台出现一笔成交，成交量33.50万股，成交金额562.80万元，大宗交易成交 价为16.80元。该笔交易的买方营业部为中信证券华南股份有限公司广东分公司，卖方营业部为机构专 用。 进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生12笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为7004.75万元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，温氏股份今日收盘价为16.80元，下跌1.35%，日换手率为0.38%，成交额为 3.82亿元，全天主力资金净流出45 ...