在线上的出 2025 年 12 月 15 日 ted by street the see the series of the see on the see on the series of the see of the see of the see the series of the seen the series of the sering the sering the sering 相关研究 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 猪价底部震荡亏损延续， 宠物食品线上销售情况 农林牧渔周观点（2025.12.8-2025.12.14） 本期投资提示: 7.00% 4.00% 1.00% -2.00% -5.00% 资料来源：iFinD，申万宏源研究 请务必仔细阅读 ...

生猪市场2026年年报 生猪：冬藏未尽 春芽尚伏 -2025年生猪市场回顾与2026年展望 方正中期期货研究院 农产品团队 宋从志 Z0020712 ▷ 摘要： ● 2025年商品整体仍然呈现高开低走,特朗普的关税及国内"反内卷"政策令部分商品 波动率显著上升,全年时间来看金融类资产仍然延续强势表现,但大宗商品受制于近端压 力偏大,部分价格跌至 2016年供给侧改革前的起点。本轮农产品未处于国内政策干预的 核心,且农产品整体商品属性较强,金融属性不足,受宏观流动性影响较小,全年大部分 时间受制于周期性压力价格表现较弱。其中养殖产业链下游领跌,生猪期现价格在 2025 年三季度末创年内新低,肥猪及仔猪价格逐步跌破养殖成本。本轮盈利周期始于2024年 3 月份,猪企累计经过15个月左右的较高水平盈利,集团企业现金流及资产负债表得到一 定程度的改善,但行业整体以降本增效为主要经营目标,行业固定资产投资减少,再扩张 步划趋缓,因此行业绝对产能水平未有明显增加,但高水平盈利激励下,单位母猪的生产 效能得到较大提高,行业平均 PSY 由此前 24 提高至 26 以上,部分头部企业接近 29,这 是影响 2025年生猪供给 ...

行业景气延续，10-11月宠物食品行业线上GMV同比+17%。由于今年"双十一"大促提前，11月单月数据 参考意义有限，该行将10月-11月数据合并进行统计分析。据久谦咨询，2025年10-11月宠物食品天猫、 京东、抖音平台合计销售额为70.2亿，同比+17%;乖宝宠物：10-11月合计GMV同比+40%，其中麦富 迪、弗列加特分别同比+25%、+74%;中宠股份：10-11月合计GMV同比+76%，其中顽皮、Zeal、领先分 别同比+68%、+23%和+104%;佩蒂股份：10-11月合计GMV同比+21%，其中爵宴、好适嘉分别同比 +25%、-38%。 肉鸡养殖 智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，行业亏损加剧，产能加速去化逐步开启，重点推荐左侧布局 生猪养殖板块。猪价底部震荡，亏损幅度继续扩大(涌益监测不同规模母猪存栏自繁自养亏损额均超过 120元/头)。不同第三方机构监测样本点11月能繁母猪数据陆续发布，11月产能普遍去化，结合农业农 村部10月数据，行业产能加速去化实质性发生，推荐关注板块左侧投资机会。此外，宠物板块经历前期 较为充分调整后，建议关注年末估值切换的行情。 申万宏源主要观点如下： ...

行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 及 产 业 农林牧渔 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 15 日 猪价底部震荡亏损延续，关注11月 宠物食品线上销售情况 看好 —— 农林牧渔周观点（2025.12.8-2025.12.14） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 1．本周农业股市场表现 本周申万农林牧渔指数下跌 0.1%，沪深 300 下跌 0.1%。个股涨幅前五名：*ST 正邦 （19.4%）、生物股份（17.2%）、平潭发展（13.8%）、罗牛山（13.7%）、神农科技 （12.3%），跌幅前五名：西王食品（-15.4%）、海利生物（-13.0%）、华英农业（- 12.4%）、好当家（-11 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the recent performance of various industries, with notable gains in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, electronics, and power equipment, while retail and real estate sectors faced declines [1][1][1] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of technological breakthroughs and supply-demand optimization, indicating a shift towards quality improvement in economic growth [11][12][19] - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing significant growth, with the establishment of a dedicated regulatory body and a notable increase in the commercial aerospace index, which has risen by 46.52% since April 7 [47][48] Group 2 - The report indicates a seasonal recovery in social financing, with November seeing an increase of 24,885 billion yuan, driven primarily by government bond issuance [4][7] - The credit environment is showing signs of marginal improvement, particularly in corporate loans, which increased by 6,100 billion yuan in November, reflecting a recovery in demand [5][6] - The report notes that the retail sector is undergoing a transformation, with a focus on quality, as highlighted by the Ministry of Commerce's emphasis on retail quality upgrades [1][1][1] Group 3 - The report discusses the rising interest in inquiry transfers, which have seen a significant increase in both project numbers and transfer scale, indicating a growing trend in the market [51][52] - The technology sector is expected to remain a key focus, with upcoming events such as the Volcano Engine FORCE conference anticipated to showcase advancements in AI and cloud services [56]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [2][13]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is currently experiencing a mixed performance, with the agricultural index underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [2][13]. - The pig farming industry is facing a downward price trend, with the average pig price at 11.48 yuan/kg, indicating a continued loss across the sector [21][22]. - Poultry farming shows signs of stabilization, with white feather chicken prices at 7.33 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight increase, while yellow feather chicken prices are improving due to better demand [28][31]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, with live cattle prices at 26.68 yuan/kg [33]. - The planting sector is experiencing tight supply conditions, with corn prices rising to 2238.57 yuan/ton, indicating potential for price increases if crop yields decline [37][38]. - Feed prices are stabilizing, with pig feed prices at 3.32 yuan/kg, while aquatic product prices are showing upward trends [51][55]. Summary by Sections 1. Swine Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 129.63 kg, with prices expected to continue declining due to excess supply and ongoing losses in the industry [22][21]. - The report suggests focusing on low-cost, high-quality enterprises such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [22][24]. 2. Poultry Farming - The white feather chicken market is under pressure, but yellow feather chicken prices are improving due to better demand and reduced supply [28][31]. - The overall profitability in poultry farming is expected to improve if consumer demand recovers [28][31]. 3. Livestock - The beef market is anticipated to rise as it enters the peak consumption season, with live cattle prices showing a year-on-year increase [33]. - The dairy sector is experiencing a reduction in stock, with raw milk prices expected to stabilize in the coming year [33]. 4. Planting Chain - Corn prices are on the rise, with a current price of 2238.57 yuan/ton, indicating a tightening supply situation [37][38]. - The planting sector is expected to improve if there are significant reductions in crop yields due to adverse weather conditions [37][38]. 5. Feed & Aquatic Products - Feed prices are stabilizing, with pig feed prices at 3.32 yuan/kg, while aquatic product prices are showing positive trends [51][55]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring price movements in the feed and aquatic sectors for investment opportunities [51][55].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the accelerated reduction of pig production capacity and highlights investment opportunities in raw milk and beef cattle sectors [2][15]. Livestock Farming - As of December 12, the average price for lean pigs in China is 11.03 CNY/kg, unchanged from the previous week but down 33.2% year-on-year. The industry continues to face significant supply pressure and losses due to short-term demand stagnation and regional epidemics [7][15]. - The number of breeding sows decreased by 1.1% month-on-month in October, indicating a more pronounced decline compared to September. The winter season is noted as a high-risk period for pig diseases, which may further impact production capacity [15]. - Recommended leading companies include Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, with additional attention on Dekang Agriculture and New Hope Liuhe. Companies with potential for operational turnaround include Zhengbang Technology, while smaller firms like Tiankang Biological and Shennong Group are also suggested for consideration [15]. - For broiler chickens, the average price for live chickens and chicks is 3.65 CNY/jin and 3.54 CNY/chick, respectively, both showing a week-on-week increase of 1.4% [15]. Dairy Sector - The current price for fresh milk in major production areas is 3.02 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week but down 3.2% year-on-year. The industry is expected to continue reducing capacity due to long-term losses and financial pressures [16]. - The report anticipates a gradual balance in supply and demand as previous capacity reductions take effect, with a positive outlook for the raw milk cycle in 2026-2027 [16]. - Recommended companies in the dairy sector include Yurun Agriculture and Modern Farming [16]. Feed and Animal Health - The report notes a mixed performance in aquatic product prices, with a significant rebound in white shrimp prices due to previous disease outbreaks and delayed stocking [17]. - The aquaculture industry is expected to improve in 2025 compared to 2023-2024, although profitability is projected to remain lower than pre-2023 levels, necessitating upgrades in feed formulations and farming techniques [17]. - Leading feed companies are expected to enhance their market share domestically and expand internationally, leveraging their cost advantages [17]. - Key companies to watch in the animal health sector include Keqian Biological, Pulaike, Ruipu Biological, and Biological Shares, as they expand into pet healthcare [17]. Crop Sector - The domestic corn spot price is 2357 CNY/ton, remaining stable, while soybean meal prices have increased by 1.5% to 3159 CNY/ton [18]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring weather conditions in South America and trade factors affecting soybean prices [18]. - Companies to focus on in the seed industry include Suqian Agricultural Development, Beidahuang, and Longping High-Tech [18]. Pet Food Industry - The global production layout of pet food companies is maturing, with limited impact from trade frictions on overseas operations. The domestic market shows high growth potential, driven by functional and health-oriented products [20]. - The industry is witnessing a trend towards consolidation, with leading companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Shares showing strong brand performance [20]. - The long-term outlook remains positive for industry growth and the rise of domestic brands [20].

证券研究报告 2025.12.14 农业周报：宠食新消费品牌发力大促 王思洋 分析员 陈泰屹 分析员 龙友琪 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080523070004 SFC CE Ref：BTG198 siyang5.wang@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080524020011 taiyi.chen@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080524010004 youqi.long@cicc.com.cn 行业动态 行业近况 本周（12.8-12.12）农林牧渔涨幅+0.3%，跑赢大盘 0.4ppt。涨 幅前三个股为正邦/生物股份/罗牛山，分别+19%/+17%/+14%。 评论 畜禽产业链：11 月样本上市猪企出栏环比下降。1）生猪养殖： 商品猪/二元母猪/7kg仔猪价格周环比+2.1%/-0.5%/+1.2%；11 月样本上市猪企出栏量环比减少 5.5%；涌益 17 省育肥栏舍利用 率环比-6.5ppt；本周商品猪出栏均重周环比-0.2%，关注北方动 物疫病情况；德康"百村百万"家庭农场基地投运。2）禽养 殖：鸡苗/毛鸡/鸡产品价格周环比+1.4%/+0.8%/+0.6%；哈 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月13日 2025年12月14日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（186） 优于大市 粮价有望筑底企稳，看好肉奶周期共振反转 周度农产品跟踪：牛价有望持续上涨，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：行业反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。12 月 12 日生猪价格 11.34 元/ 公斤，周环比+2.07%；7kg 仔猪价格约 219.52 元/头，周环比+1.21%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。12 月 12 日，鸡苗价格 3.38 元/ 羽，周环比+2.11%；毛鸡价格 7.24 元/公斤，周环比+2.26%。 黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。12 月 11 日浙江快大三黄鸡/ 青 脚 麻 鸡 / 雪 山 草 鸡 斤 价 分 别 为 4.6/5.6/8.2 元 ， 周 环 比 分 别 +2.22%/+7.69%/+0.00%。 鸡蛋：在产父母代存栏维持增长，中期供给压力较大。12 月 12 日，鸡蛋主 产区价格 3.09 元/斤，周环比+3.00%，同比+0.98%。 肉牛：新一轮牛价上涨开启，看好 2025 年牛周期反转上行。12 月 12 日，国 内育肥公牛出栏价为 ...

联农共富，初心 不改！温氏股份 获第三届"猗顿 猪业杰出贡献 奖"_南方+_南方 plus 敢做养猪先锋， 不忘联农带农！ 12月13日，第五 十二届养猪产业 大会（广州）顺 利闭幕。在当天 举办的颁奖典礼 认可，更是 对"带农致富"初 心的坚定守护。 从"公司+农 户"到"公司+家 庭农场"再到创 新的"政银企村 户"共建模式， 温氏股份始终践 行联农带农的初 心，构建起风险 共担、利益共享 的紧密共同体。 2015年-2025年 前三季度累计支 付农户养殖费用 超961亿元，即 便行情低迷期， 仍保障农户收益 稳定，让4.3万 农户实现家门口 创业致富。 上，温氏食品集 团股份有限公司 （简称：温氏股 份）荣获第三届 恒通杯"猗顿猪 业杰出贡献 奖" 。 温氏股份总裁 黎少松（中）代表企业上台，接受广东省农业农村厅总畜牧兽医师陈楚楷（右）、四川恒通内江猪保种繁育有限公司董事长郭 亮（左）颁发的"猗顿猪业杰出贡献奖"。 "猗顿猪业杰出 贡献奖"既是对 行业贡献的权威 以科技为翼，温 氏股份与华为等 科技企业深度合 作，研发出"牧 视通""AI诊 疗"等产品，将 AI从探索走向应 用，让农户养殖 更高效；以服 ...