9月25日，温氏股份（300498）通过电话会议形式，接受了中金公司协助组织的调研，Taikang Asset Management (Hong Kong)、Hao Capital等2家机构共6位机构投资者参与。温氏股份副总裁兼董事会秘书 蒋荣金，投资者关系管理室副主任史志茹接待了来访机构。 本次投资者关系活动类别为电话会议，地点在公司总部。 公司生产经营情况介绍 年初以来，温氏股份强抓基础生产管理和重大疫病防控等工作，疫病防控成效显著，畜禽大生产保持稳 定，核心生产指标持续改善，成本控制成效显著。 -猪业：当前公司猪业大生产稳定，生产经营持续向 好。8月份，公司猪苗生产成本降至260元/头左右，肉猪上市率93%左右，料肉比2.51。尽管8月份对应 期间猪苗成本、饲料成本有所提升，8月份肉猪养殖综合成本仍保持在6.1 - 6.2元/斤，成本控制较为理 想。 -禽业：公司肉鸡生产继续保持高水平稳定。8月份肉鸡上市率95%，料肉比2.86，毛鸡出栏完全成 本为5.8元/斤。 Q&A环节要点养猪业务成本改善原因：核心原因在于上半年畜禽大生产整体稳定，疫病防控效果较 好，肉猪上市率提升，无效损失大幅减少。同时，公司持 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - The company is engaged in stable production management and effective epidemic prevention, leading to improved core production indicators and cost control [2] - The company’s stock code is 300498 and bond code is 123107 [1] Group 2: Swine Production - In August, the cost of piglets decreased to approximately 260 RMB per head, with a market pig listing rate of around 93% and a feed-to-meat ratio of 2.51 [2] - The comprehensive cost of pig farming remains stable at 6.1-6.2 RMB per jin [2] - The company’s PSY (Pigs Weaned per Sow per Year) level is around 27 [5] Group 3: Poultry Production - The company’s meat chicken listing rate in August was 95%, with a feed-to-meat ratio of 2.86 [2] - The total cost of broiler chickens in August was 5.8 RMB per jin [3] - Since September, the sales price of meat chickens has risen to 6.6 RMB per jin, indicating a recovery in profitability for the poultry business [8] Group 4: Cost Management and Future Outlook - The improvement in swine farming costs is attributed to stable production, effective epidemic control, and reduced losses [4] - The company anticipates a continued weak fluctuation in raw material prices in the short term [8]

Core Viewpoint - The pig market is experiencing a downturn despite the traditional peak season, with prices dropping and concerns over excess production capacity [1][2][3] Price Trends - As of September 26, the average price of external three yuan pigs in China is 12.71 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day, with half of the regions experiencing prices in the "5 yuan pig price zone" [1] - The average price of pigs in the third week of September was 13.85 yuan/kg, and the average pork price was 24.51 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.8% decrease from the previous week [1][2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - High inventory levels and the release of production capacity by leading enterprises are contributing to the oversupply in the pig industry, compounded by weak consumer demand [2][3] - The number of breeding sows is projected to reach a high of 40.8 million by November 2024, indicating sustained supply levels [2] Industry Adjustments - Major pig farming companies are actively reducing production capacity, with a consensus on the need for quality improvement and capacity reduction [5][6] - Companies like Wens Foodstuffs and New Hope are implementing measures to control the number of breeding sows and reduce average slaughter weights [8] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may stabilize by November as excess capacity is gradually absorbed, with potential for price recovery [5][6] - The industry is expected to evolve into a "three-three" structure, balancing large enterprises, specialized farms, and medium-sized family farms to better withstand cyclical fluctuations [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [42] Core Viewpoints - Recent declines in pig prices and continuous profit decreases for breeding companies will force upstream breeding sows to reduce stock. The current stock of breeding sows remains relatively high, indicating significant potential for future reduction. The valuation of pig breeding companies is still at a historically low level, presenting an opportunity for investment based on capacity reduction expectations. In the chicken breeding sector, overall capacity is relatively high, and profitability remains under pressure. There is a potential for capacity reduction in the future, with attention to marginal profit improvement opportunities. In the feed sector, opportunities arise from increased market concentration and overseas expansion. The domestic pet market still has expansion potential, with leading domestic companies expected to maintain rapid growth [42][43] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, declining by 5.07% from September 12 to September 25, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 6.07 percentage points [10] - All sub-sectors recorded negative returns during this period, with declines of 2.89% in planting, 3.59% in animal health, 4.36% in feed, 5.32% in agricultural product processing, 5.95% in breeding, and 6.73% in fisheries [13][14] 2. Industry Key Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three-way cross pigs fell from 13.31 CNY/kg to 12.51 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn was 2365.1 CNY/ton, and soybean meal was 3002 CNY/ton, both showing slight declines. As of September 26, 2025, the profit for self-bred pigs was -74.11 CNY/head, and for purchased piglets, it was -236.57 CNY/head, indicating a decrease in profitability [22][24][27] - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks was 3.29 CNY/chick, showing a slight increase, while the average price of white feather broilers was 6.9 CNY/kg, reflecting a slight decline. The profit for white feather broilers was -2.22 CNY/chick, also indicating a decrease [29][33] - **Aquaculture**: The average wholesale prices for crucian carp and carp were 21.09 CNY/kg and 14.2 CNY/kg, respectively, both showing slight declines [35] 3. Industry News - Argentina announced a temporary zero-export tax on agricultural products, effective from September 23, 2025, until October 31, or until exports reach 7 billion USD. This measure aims to address domestic foreign exchange pressures and currency devaluation, significantly lowering export costs and enhancing competitiveness in the global market [37]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the pig farming industry, indicating a shift towards stable and high-quality development, with a recommendation to focus on leading pig farming companies that demonstrate good performance and dividend payouts [6][5]. Core Insights - The pig farming industry is entering a new phase characterized by improved profitability and stability, driven by effective cost management and policy support for capacity reduction. The report emphasizes the importance of recognizing the strength of current policies aimed at reducing production capacity [6][5]. - In the first half of 2025, the pig farming sector saw a significant increase in supply, with a slight decline in pig prices year-on-year. However, listed companies in the sector reported substantial revenue growth and profit increases, primarily due to volume-driven strategies [6][21]. - The report highlights that the current profitability cycle in the pig farming industry is expected to be prolonged, with conservative market expectations and limited capacity expansion. The anticipated supply pressure may lead to continued losses for some farming operations [6][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the Pig Farming Industry in H1 2025 - The average price of pigs in H1 2025 was 14.80 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.21%. The supply of pigs increased due to higher production efficiency and a growing number of breeding sows [10][11]. - The slaughter volume from designated slaughterhouses increased significantly, with a year-on-year rise of 21.4% in Q2 2025, indicating stable demand despite price fluctuations [11][12]. 2. Performance Review of Listed Pig Farming Companies - In H1 2025, the total revenue of listed pig farming companies reached 201.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, while net profit surged by 865.5% to 15.9 billion yuan [21][22]. - The leading companies, such as Muyuan Foods and Wen's Foodstuffs, reported substantial increases in both revenue and profit, with Muyuan achieving a 45% increase in the number of pigs slaughtered [27][26]. 3. Industry Outlook under the "Anti-Internal Competition" Policy - The report anticipates that the policy measures aimed at reducing production capacity will accelerate the pace of capacity reduction in the industry, with plans to cut 1 million breeding sows within six months [6][5]. - The industry is expected to transition towards a more stable and high-quality development phase, with improved profitability and cash flow for leading companies [6][5]. 4. Investment Analysis - The report suggests that investors should focus on companies with strong performance and reliable dividend payouts, as these firms are likely to experience a reassessment of their value in the market [6][5]. - The report indicates that the current cycle of profitability in the pig farming industry is expected to last longer than anticipated, with limited capacity expansion and ongoing supply pressures [6][5].

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in pig prices, with the average price of live pigs dropping to 12.82 yuan/kg by September 19, marking a three-year low [5][6] - The report indicates that the supply side is experiencing pressure due to increased market supply, while demand remains weak, particularly affected by high temperatures in August [5][6] - The government is implementing stricter policies to control pig production capacity, aiming to stabilize prices and promote high-quality development in the industry [6] Industry Overview - In August 2025, the average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork were 33.63 yuan/kg, 14.35 yuan/kg, and 24.98 yuan/kg, respectively, showing month-on-month declines of 5.87%, 3.77%, and 1.52% [5] - The report notes that the number of breeding sows in July was 40.42 million, with a slight decrease, indicating a trend of capacity reduction in the industry [5] - The report anticipates that the short-term pressure on pig prices will lead to a long-term upward trend as the government’s capacity reduction policies take effect [6] Company Insights - Major companies in the pig farming sector, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, reported significant declines in sales prices in August, with average sales prices of 13.51 yuan/kg and 13.90 yuan/kg, respectively [7] - The report suggests that companies with strong cost advantages are likely to maintain profitability despite the current market pressures [6] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the industry, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, which are expected to perform well in the long term [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent performance and financial metrics of Wens Foodstuff Group Co., Ltd, including stock price fluctuations and revenue growth [1][2][3] - As of September 25, Wens' stock price decreased by 2.11% to 18.58 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 123.63 billion CNY [1] - The company has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 13.91%, with a 2.62% decline over the last five trading days [1] Group 2 - For the first half of 2025, Wens reported a revenue of 49.88 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.67%, and a net profit of 3.48 billion CNY, which is a significant increase of 161.77% [2] - The company has distributed a total of 28.12 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 4.94 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3] - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 20.62% to 91,000, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 43.71% to 65,602 shares [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongxing Securities indicates a continuous decline in pig prices, with the average price falling below 14 yuan/kg in August and reaching a three-year low of 12.82 yuan/kg by September 19. The government is committed to reducing production capacity and stabilizing pig prices, which will shape the industry's future dynamics [1][2][3]. Industry Supply and Demand Performance - In August, pig prices continued to decline, with average prices dropping below 14 yuan/kg. By September 19, the average price of live pigs was 12.82 yuan/kg, marking the lowest level in three years [1][2]. - The supply side saw a significant increase in market pressure due to a concentration of sales from smallholders, leading to a notable price drop. High temperatures in August also suppressed consumer demand, resulting in weak sales [2]. - The number of breeding sows was reported at 40.42 million in July, showing a slight decrease. Data indicates a mixed trend in breeding sow inventory, with some samples showing growth while others indicate a decline [2]. Policy and Regulatory Developments - A meeting held on September 16 by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the government's commitment to reducing production capacity and stabilizing pig prices. Clear regulatory targets were set for breeding stock and slaughter weights, with tighter funding and environmental measures [3]. - The short-term impact of these policies may increase supply pressure and lead to further price declines, but the long-term outlook suggests a potential recovery in pig prices by 2026 as inefficient production capacity is eliminated [3]. Future Market Outlook - The ongoing capacity regulation will remain a central theme in the industry, with expectations for the elimination of outdated production capacity. High-quality producers are likely to maintain profitability and benefit from improved margins post-regulation [4]. - The industry valuation is currently below historical averages, indicating a safety margin for investments. Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ), Tian Kang Biological (002100.SZ), and Shennong Group (605296.SH) [4]. Sales Data of Listed Companies - In August, major companies reported a decline in average sales prices, with Muyuan Foods at 13.51 yuan/kg, Wens at 13.90 yuan/kg, Zhengbang Technology at 13.75 yuan/kg, and New Hope at 13.54 yuan/kg, reflecting changes of -5.52%, -4.66%, -3.91%, and -6.23% respectively [5]. - The sales volume for August showed a recovery, with Muyuan Foods selling 700,000 pigs, Wens 325,000, New Hope 134,000, and Zhengbang 67,000, representing increases of 10.17%, 2.56%, 2.71%, and a decrease of -3.67% respectively [5]. - The average weight of pigs sold also decreased, with Muyuan at 125.29 kg, Wens at 109.95 kg, and New Hope at 95.07 kg, indicating a continued trend of reduced weights in the industry [5].

Market Performance - The aquaculture sector increased by 0.4% on September 24, with Huaying Agriculture leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.64, up 0.83%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13356.14, up 1.8% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Huaying Agriculture (002321) closed at 2.98, with a rise of 5.67% and a trading volume of 1.4659 million shares, amounting to a transaction value of 440 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers included Dongrui Co. (001201) with a 2.24% increase, and Shengnong Development (002299) with a 2.16% increase [1] - The top trading stock by transaction value was Muyuan Foods (002714), closing at 53.96 with a 1.39% increase and a transaction value of 1.982 billion yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The aquaculture sector saw a net inflow of 209 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 216 million yuan [2] - The main stocks with significant net inflows included Muyuan Foods (902.668 million yuan) and Huaying Agriculture (569.835 million yuan) [3] - Retail investors showed a negative net flow in several stocks, including Huaying Agriculture and Shengnong Development, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [3]

Core Insights - The report indicates a narrowing profitability in pig farming while the pet food sector continues to grow [1][5] - The investment rating is maintained as "positive" for the sector [1] Pig Farming - Supply pressure has led to a decline in pig prices, with the average price in July-August 2025 at 14.63 CNY/kg, down from 14.96 CNY/kg in Q2 2025 [5] - The average profitability for self-breeding and purchased piglets in the industry has shifted to losses, with figures of 53.0 CNY/head for self-breeding and -106.7 CNY/head for purchased piglets as of September 19 [5] - The outflow of pigs from listed companies has shown a growth rate of 26.2% in Q2 2025 and 20.0% in July-August 2025 [5] - The report suggests that the ongoing policy guidance for capacity adjustment and weight reduction will likely elevate the price center of pigs in the future [5] - Recommended companies for investment include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, Dekang Agriculture, Juxing Agriculture, Shennong Group, Tiankang Biological, and Tangrenshen [5] Animal Health - Demand for animal health products is on the rise, with significant year-on-year growth in various vaccines, such as a 30% increase for swine fever vaccines in July-August 2025 [5] - Companies like Keqian Biological and Ruipu Biological are highlighted for their strong internal growth potential due to new product launches [5] Poultry Farming - The price of white feather chickens has rebounded due to seasonal demand and tighter supply, with an average price of 6.92 CNY/kg as of September 19, 2025 [5] - The report notes a 17.66% year-on-year decrease in the number of breeding chickens updated in the first eight months of 2025, indicating potential long-term benefits for the white feather chicken industry [5] - Recommended companies include Shennong Development and Yisheng Livestock [5] Pet Food Sector - Domestic sales of pet food are driven by consumption upgrades and domestic substitution, with a reported growth rate of 11% across major e-commerce platforms from January to August 2025 [5] - The report highlights the introduction of new products and the strengthening of brand power among leading companies [5] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., Petty Co., and Lusi Co. [5]