Investment Rating - The report recommends focusing on the cyclical turning points in the pig and beef farming sectors, highlighting companies like Muyuan Foods and WH Group as potential investments. The pet industry shows clear growth potential, with companies that integrate production, sales, and research expected to succeed, such as Zhongchong Co., Guibao Pet, and Petty Co. The planting sector also has significant growth potential, with recommendations for companies like Morning Light Bio and Noposion [11]. Core Insights - The pig farming sector is expected to face continued low prices in the first half of 2026, driven by both policy and cyclical factors, with a focus on cost improvement and growth potential in pig farming enterprises [2][15]. - The poultry sector is experiencing a recovery phase, with white chicken prices remaining low and yellow chicken demand potentially increasing due to promotional activities [3][37]. - The beef farming sector is characterized by a long production cycle, with supply-side contractions likely to drive prices upward, particularly from 2025 onwards [4][46]. - The feed and animal health sectors are expected to see growth in sales, with a focus on the competitive landscape and the impact of low profits on animal health demand [5][63]. - The planting sector is projected to see stable grain prices, driven by domestic control and innovation, with a focus on specialty crops and plant extracts [6][69]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Prices are expected to remain low in the first half of 2026, with a gradual increase in supply due to rising breeding sow inventories [15]. - Capacity policies and cyclical adjustments are leading to a continued reduction in production capacity, with a focus on cost reduction and debt management among pig farming companies [23][27]. - Companies like Muyuan Foods are highlighted for their cost improvements, with expectations of further reductions in production costs [29]. Poultry Farming - The white chicken industry is in a deep price slump, with recovery expected to take time, while yellow chicken prices may see slight recovery due to promotional efforts [32][37]. - Leading companies are improving their operational efficiencies to cope with low prices, which may enhance their performance when prices recover [33]. Beef Farming - The long production cycle and fragmented market structure of beef farming in China are significant factors, with supply reductions expected to lead to price increases starting in 2025 [41][46]. - The beef supply is projected to decrease in the latter half of 2025, with expectations of continued price increases through 2027 [47]. Feed and Animal Health - The feed sector is expected to see a recovery in sales, with high inventory levels in the livestock sector supporting growth [52]. - The animal health sector may face pressure due to low profits in the livestock sector, but there are opportunities for breakthroughs in key products [63][65]. Planting - Grain prices are expected to stabilize and rise, with a focus on domestic production and innovation in seed varieties [69][75]. - The planting sector is seeing a shift towards high-quality, innovative seed varieties, with companies like Kangnong Seed showing strong growth potential [87].

在线上的出 2026 年 01 月 05 日 相关研究 券研究报 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 元旦猪价反弹后回落,关注牛肉进口国别配额 及配额外关税落地 — 农林牧渔周观点（2025.12.29-2026.01.04） 本期投资提示: 0 本周申万农林牧渔指数上涨 0.1%，沪深 300 下跌 0.6%。个股涨幅前五名：华绿生物（6.5%） 牧原股份（5.5%） 神农集团（4.2%） 平潭发展（3.8%） 大湖股份（3.5%） 跌幅前五名：国 投中鲁 (-10.8%)、罗牛山 (-9.6%)、*ST 正邦 (-9.0%)、神农科技 (-7.7%)、国联水产 (- 7.0%)。 0 投资分析意见：行业亏损加剧，产能加速去化逐步开启，重点推荐左侧布局生猪养殖板块。 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|农林牧渔 证券研究报告 元旦前猪价反弹明显，牛肉进口配额保障政策落地 [TAblE_TitlE] 农林牧渔行业 [TAblE_SummAry] 核心观点： [TAblE_G rADE] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-01-04 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： TAblE_Author 钱浩] SAC 执证号：S0260517080014 SFC CE No. BND274 021-38003634 shqianhao@gf.com.cn 分析师： 郑颖欣 SAC 执证号：S0260520070001 021-38003632 zhengyingxin@gf.com.cn 分析师： 高一岑 SAC 执证号：S0260525100002 021-38003780 gaoyicen@gf.com.cn 分析师： 李雅琦 SAC 执证号：S0260524080006 021-68827265 liyaqi@gf.com.cn -4% 4% 11% 19% 26% 34% 01/25 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [5] Core Viewpoints - The pig farming sector is expected to benefit from recent policies and market dynamics that promote capacity reduction, leading to a potential price turning point in Q2 2026, with long-term performance improvements anticipated for related stocks [3][43] - The structural growth trend in the post-cycle sector continues, with profits likely to gradually transmit downstream if the current round of pig capacity reduction proceeds smoothly, benefiting the animal health sector [3] - The planting chain shows a confirmed upward trend in grain prices, indicating favorable fundamentals for planting and seed industries, highlighting significant investment opportunities [3] - The pet food sector is experiencing growth and price increase logic, with continuous recognition of domestic brands and sustained growth of leading companies [3] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs as of December 31 was 12.76 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 10.38%, while the average price of 15 kg piglets was 19.44 yuan/kg, up 2.21% week-on-week [12][51] - The supply side shows a widening price gap for fattened pigs, supporting price increases, while demand is boosted by consumption expectations during the New Year holiday [12][17] Poultry - The price of white feather broilers increased to 7.82 yuan/kg, up 6.39% week-on-week, and chick prices rose to 3.59 yuan/chick, up 1.7% week-on-week [17][51] - The supply of meat chickens has increased, leading to a more relaxed market supply, while demand has weakened due to some slaughterhouses reducing operations [17] Feed Sector - The prices of corn, wheat, and soybean meal have risen, with corn averaging 2351.57 yuan/ton, up 0.57% week-on-week, and soybean meal at 3172.29 yuan/ton, up 0.96% week-on-week [27][51] - Increased selling enthusiasm among farmers is noted, although the pace of supply remains slow [27] Major Agricultural Products - The domestic natural rubber futures price was 15605 yuan/ton as of December 31, down 0.29% week-on-week, with inventory levels increasing [38][51] - The current down cycle for sugar prices continues, with no significant recovery expected [39]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the agricultural industry [9] Core Insights - In 2026, the pig and beef cattle farming sectors are expected to reach a cyclical turning point, with clear growth potential in the pet sector and significant opportunities in specialty planting [2][13] - Companies with complete production, sales, and research capabilities in the pet industry are likely to succeed amid competitive pressures [8] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Price: The pig price is expected to remain low in the first half of 2026, leading to continued low profits in the industry [3] - Capacity: Policy and cyclical adjustments are driving capacity reduction, with a focus on cost improvement and growth potential in pig farming enterprises [3][27] - Debt Reduction: The average debt-to-asset ratio for listed pig farming companies has decreased to 56.27%, indicating improved financial health [27] Poultry Farming - White Chicken: The industry is experiencing deep price declines, with a return to supply-demand balance expected to take time [4][30] - Yellow Chicken: Prices may see slight recovery, supported by promotional activities for native chicken varieties [35] Beef Farming - Long Cycle: The beef farming cycle is lengthy, with a fragmented supply structure impacting pricing dynamics [39] - Price Outlook: A supply contraction is expected to support continued price increases for beef from 2025 onwards [46] Feed and Animal Health - Feed: The feed sector is anticipated to see growth in sales, with a positive outlook for 2026 as livestock numbers remain high [49] - Animal Health: Demand for animal health products may face pressure due to low profits in farming, but breakthroughs in key products are worth monitoring [58][59] Planting - Grain Prices: Grain prices are expected to trend upwards, driven by increased focus on food security and innovation in seed varieties [7][64] - Specialty Planting: Opportunities in specialty crops like blueberries and mushrooms are highlighted, with a focus on innovation and market demand [7][70] Pet Industry - Growth Potential: The pet market is thriving, with strong consumer willingness to spend, indicating clear growth prospects [8][13] - Competitive Landscape: Companies with integrated production, sales, and research capabilities are rare and likely to outperform in the competitive environment [8][13]

人民财讯1月2日电，温氏股份1月2日在互动平台表示，公司2025年年初制定2025年肉猪（含毛猪和鲜 品）销售目标约3300万—3500万头。截至2025年11月末，公司已累计销售肉猪3190万头（含毛猪和鲜 品，不含仔猪）。 转自：证券时报 ...

两家企业的高规格技术团队在座谈会上打破企业边界，就品系配套、饲料营养标准、猪舍选址标准等关 键技术细节开放分享。 来源：环球网 近日，广东温氏股份团队一行到访河南牧原集团，就规模化养殖、疾病防控、成本控制及数智化应用等 核心议题展开全方位交流。 图为温氏 股份与牧原团队交流现场。 从岭南到中原地区，作为国内生猪养殖行业两家巨头，此次进厂深访、坦诚交流引业界关注。有分析 称，通过共建良性生态，双方或将以超越企业自身的视角，引领构建健康、可持续的产业新生态。 温氏团队此次访问并非走马观花式的参观，而是深入到牧原的技术核心区域。两家企业选择通过开放交 流寻求突破。 在牧原肉食产业综合体、农牧装备产业园，温氏团队实地了解了牧原的楼房猪舍设计、环控通风模式等 技术创新实践。 座谈会上，双方团队就种猪与健康管理、饲料营养、猪场设计与环保三大领域展开了实质性技术对话。 这种程度的技术细节交流，在中国生猪养殖行业尚属罕见。 温氏股份根植于广东省云浮市，是以畜禽养殖为主业的现代农牧企业集团。牧原根植于河南南阳，是集 饲料加工、生猪养殖、屠宰加工为一体的全产业链企业。两家企业起步于20世纪八九十年代，经过数十 年的深耕与发展，均 ...

Market Overview - In 2025, the A-share market achieved a historic breakthrough driven by enhanced national governance and increased confidence in technology, with major indices significantly rising and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching above 4000 points [3] - The total market capitalization surpassed 100 trillion yuan, with active trading and a clear focus on technology growth [3] - The outlook for 2026 suggests a consolidation phase for the A-share market, characterized by "sideways fluctuations with slight strengthening," supported by positive expectations for national governance and long-term development [3] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-cap blue-chip stocks as a stabilizing force during market fluctuations, with a shift in investor preference from extreme technology and dividend styles to mid-range options [4] - It is recommended to explore opportunities in the long-dormant consumer sector and to wait for new catalysts in technology growth [4] Industry Focus: Swine Industry - The report highlights a pessimistic outlook for the swine industry, suggesting that the current market conditions present significant investment value [5] - Recent policies and market dynamics are expected to drive capacity reduction in the swine industry, leading to long-term performance improvements [5] - The report notes that market expectations for swine prices in 2026 are extremely low, which may underestimate the inventory and capacity reduction situation [5] - Historical trends indicate that when prices for fat pigs and piglets are low, the industry is likely to initiate market-driven capacity reductions, supported by ongoing policy restrictions on leading producers [5] Industry Focus: Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is anticipated to see rapid advancements in motion control in 2025, with mass production becoming a key focus in 2026 [6] - The report identifies the brain model as a significant challenge for mass production, with expectations for accelerated progress in the first half of 2026 [6] - Companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in the components sector are expected to benefit from this trend [6]

座谈会上，双方聚焦关键议题展开了深入交流。在种猪与健康管理方面，双方重点探讨了品系配套、后备猪饲养及重大疾病净化等内容；在饲料营养方面， 双方就饲料加工成本与营养标准等进行对标；在猪场设计与环保方面，双方围绕猪舍选址标准、空气过滤的应用管理及种养循环模式等展开了交流。 转自：新华财经 近日，温氏股份副总裁兼技术总监张祥斌一行到访牧原集团，进行了为期2天的参观交流。期间双方围绕规模化养殖、疾病防控、成本控制及数智化应用等 议题展开了深层次技术交流。 会前，温氏股份一行实地参观了牧原肉食产业综合体、农牧装备产业园及牧原肉食，了解了楼房猪舍设计、环控通风模式、智能装备的研发应用现状和生猪 屠宰工艺等技术创新实践成果。 除向全行业公开分享"低豆日粮技术"等经验外，今年以来，牧原集团通过交流学习，一方面发挥技术优势，通过全链开放加大了联农助农力度，带动中小养 殖户发展；另一方面通过与正大集团等国际化养殖龙头交流，加快"出海"布局。 有业内人士分析，随着养殖龙头企业之间、龙头企业与中小养殖场户之间、国内龙头企业与国外同业之间"开放互联、协同创新"新生态的逐渐形成，生猪行 业高质量发展未来将可能打开新的增长空间。（陈浩） ...

Core Viewpoint - The yellow feather chicken market in 2025 experienced a "roller coaster" with significant losses in the first half, followed by a rapid recovery in prices after August, leading to a potential balance between profit and loss for the year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The market faced a downturn in the first half of 2025, with prices hitting a low of 11.8 yuan/kg in July, and companies like Wen's Foodstuffs (温氏股份) reported a sales average of 10.29 yuan/kg in June, a 24.78% year-on-year decline [1][2]. - August marked a turning point, with prices increasing by over 20% month-on-month, allowing profitability to return, with profits of 3-4 yuan per chicken reported [2]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The industry is witnessing a polarization trend, with small farmers exiting the market while leading companies continue to grow rapidly. For instance, Wen's Foodstuffs and other listed companies reported significant increases in chicken sales, with Wen's selling 1.194 billion chickens, a year-on-year growth of 8.55% [3]. - The concentration of the industry is expected to increase, with leading companies projected to maintain a growth rate of around 10% in 2026, driven by cost advantages and a "company + farmer" model [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The industry is anticipated to shift from "cyclical speculation" to "value growth," with a focus on fresh and processed products as key growth areas. Price recovery is expected to be moderate, supported by supply adjustments and steady demand [3].