Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [4] Core Views - The agricultural sector is expected to experience a cyclical recovery, particularly in the beef and dairy markets, driven by domestic and international demand [3] - The pig farming sector is anticipated to stabilize due to capacity control measures, benefiting leading companies with improved cash flow and cost advantages [3] - Poultry supply is expected to remain stable, with potential for increased cash flow returns for leading enterprises as demand recovers [3] - The feed industry is likely to see enhanced competitive advantages for leading companies due to deeper industrialization and specialization [3] - The pet industry is identified as a growth sector benefiting from demographic trends [3] Summary by Sections Livestock - Beef prices are expected to continue rising, with the average price for fattened bulls at 25.20 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week and up 8.15% year-on-year [2] - Dairy cow depopulation is likely to accelerate, with raw milk prices expected to reach a turning point in 2026 [2] - The pig price on February 6, 2026, was 12.05 CNY/kg, down 1.31% week-on-week and down 20.67% year-on-year [13] Poultry - Chicken supply has slightly increased, with a focus on seasonal consumption recovery [13] - Egg prices in major production areas were 3.44 CNY/jin, up 6.83% week-on-week and up 19.44% year-on-year [13] Feed - Soybean meal prices are at historical lows, with potential catalysts from weather or trade factors [2] - Corn prices are expected to maintain a stable upward trend, with a current price of 2331 CNY/ton, down 0.09% week-on-week but up 8.52% year-on-year [2] Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - Recommended livestock companies include YouRan MuYe and Modern MuYe [3] - Recommended pig farming companies include HuaTong Co., DeKang Agriculture, and MuYuan Co. [3] - Recommended poultry companies include LiHua Co. and YiSheng Co. [3] - Recommended feed company is HaiDa Group [3] - Recommended pet company is GuaiBao Pet [3]

Investment Ratings - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for Haida Group (002311.SZ) and "Buy-B" for Shengnong Development (002299.SZ) and Wen's Shares (300498.SZ) [2] Core Insights - The pig prices are expected to face downward pressure after the peak season, with self-breeding pig farming profits currently in the negative [4] - The feed industry is undergoing accelerated consolidation, with market share shifting towards leading companies with R&D advantages and scale [4] - The report highlights opportunities for Haida Group due to its efficient internal management and strong service advantages in the industry chain [4] - The report suggests that the pig farming industry may experience a significant capacity reduction in 2026, which could improve the fundamentals and valuations of the sector [5] - The pet food sector is expected to continue growing, with a shift in competition from marketing to R&D and supply chain management [6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The agricultural sector saw a decline of 1.92% in the week of February 2-8, 2026, with the food and feed additives, meat chicken farming, and pig farming sectors performing relatively well [3][13] 2. Pig Farming - As of February 6, 2026, the average prices for external three-way cross pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan were 11.65, 11.96, and 12.38 CNY/kg, respectively, showing a week-on-week decline of 4.12%, 1.64%, and 1.98% [4][22] - The average pork price was 18.34 CNY/kg, down 1.45% from the previous week [4][22] - Self-breeding pig farming profits were reported at -38.09 CNY/head, a decrease of 63.19 CNY/head from the previous week [4][22] 3. Poultry Farming - The price of white feather chickens was reported at 7.53 CNY/kg, down 2.71% week-on-week, with a loss of 0.26 CNY per chicken [37] 4. Feed Processing - The average price of feed for fattening pigs remained stable at 3.37 CNY/kg as of January 29, 2026 [41] 5. Aquaculture - As of February 6, 2026, the price of sea cucumbers was 120 CNY/kg, and the price of shrimp was 320 CNY/kg, both remaining stable [47] 6. Crop and Oilseed Processing - As of February 6, 2026, corn was priced at 2368.43 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.33% week-on-week, while soybean prices remained stable at 4072.11 CNY/ton [56][57]

证券研究报告 农林牧渔 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 10 日 雷轶 SAC：S1350524110001 leiyi@huayuanstock.com 张东雪 SAC：S1350525060001 zhangdongxue@huayuanstock.com 冯佳文 SAC：S1350524120003 fengjiawen@huayuanstock.com 顾超 SAC：S1350524110005 guchao@huayuanstock.com 林若尧 SAC：S1350525070002 linruoyao@huayuanstock.com 周翔 SAC：S1350525070003 zhouxiang@huayuanstock.com 李冉 liran02@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 投资评级： 看好（维持） 中央一号文件发布，强调生猪产能综 合调控 ——农林牧渔行业周报（20260202-20260206） 证券分析师 投资要点： 生猪：猪价持续走弱，中央一号文件强调产能综合调控 SW 生猪养殖板块跌 0.1%，逐步消化行业去产能偏慢担忧影响，寻底 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in near-month contracts is attributed to weakening spot prices, with a notable trend of backwardation in the market [3][19]. Group 1: Market Trends - The spot price of live pigs initially rose to 13.30 yuan/kg in January due to holiday stocking and adverse weather, but has since come under pressure as supply increases ahead of the Spring Festival [3][19]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, pig farming enterprises are increasing their market supply to mitigate holiday risks, leading to a rise in supply pressure [3][19]. - The average weight of pigs being sold is currently high, and the reduction in weight before the holiday is less than expected, exceeding the capacity to meet holiday demand [3][19]. Group 2: Demand and Inventory - The demand for frozen products remains relatively stable, with a decline in utilization rates across various regions; northern markets have seen a decrease of around 10%, while southern markets show a varied decline between 2-11% [3][19]. - Frozen product inventories are continuously decreasing, although overall levels are higher than at the end of the previous year [3][19]. Group 3: Supply Outlook - The supply of newborn piglets is expected to peak around May 2026, with a continuous improvement in supply anticipated in Q3 2026, indicating a strong backwardation pricing trend for the year [4][20]. - The effects of capacity reduction are expected to gradually manifest in the second half of 2026, with expectations for spot prices to recover around May [4][20]. Group 4: Operational Strategies - The high basis of near-month contract 2603 continues, with the futures market showing a persistent downward trend, indicating a significant divergence between futures and spot prices [5][21]. - There is a need to monitor the risk of a significant decline in spot prices after the holiday, while short-term backwardation strategies are supported by fundamentals [5][21]. - Attention should be given to the reduction of breeding sows and potential low-position buying opportunities in the far-month contracts 2609 and 2611 as the market stabilizes [5][21].

Core Viewpoint - Company Wens Foodstuff Group is entering the pet food market by acquiring a stake in Qingdao Shuang'an Biotechnology Co., aiming to leverage synergies and enhance sustainable development capabilities amid declining profits in its main business [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Details - Wens Investment, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Wens Foodstuff Group, plans to invest up to 147 million yuan in Qingdao Shuang'an, acquiring 14.8684 million yuan of registered capital for 44.3854 million yuan and subscribing to an additional 34.4579 million yuan of registered capital for 103 million yuan [1]. - Post-transaction, Wens Investment will hold 48.18% of Qingdao Shuang'an, becoming its largest shareholder [1]. Group 2: Market Context - The pet food market in China is experiencing significant growth, with the urban pet consumption market surpassing 312.6 billion yuan in 2025, a 4.1% increase year-on-year, and the pet food market reaching 167.9 billion yuan, growing by 5.9% [2]. - The competitive landscape includes major foreign players like Mars and Nestlé Purina, as well as domestic brands such as Zhongchong Co., Guai Bao Pet, and Peidi Co., all vying for market share [2]. Group 3: Industry Trends - Major meat companies are recognizing opportunities in the pet food sector, with several, including Shengnong Development and Deli Foods, establishing joint ventures and production projects for pet food [3]. - Experts highlight that Wens Foodstuff Group's advantage lies in its upstream resources and established supply chain, allowing for cost control and quality assurance in pet food production [3].

Core Viewpoint - The investment by Wens Foodstuff Group in Qingdao Shuang'an Bio-Tech Co., Ltd. aims to strengthen its core business while exploring strategic opportunities in the pet food sector, enhancing sustainable development and risk resilience [1][3]. Investment Details - Wens Investment plans to invest no more than 147 million yuan in Qingdao Shuang'an, acquiring approximately 22.19% of its equity and subscribing to an additional capital increase of 103 million yuan [4]. - After the transaction, Wens Investment will hold 48.18% of Qingdao Shuang'an's equity, making it the largest shareholder [4][5]. Company Background - Qingdao Shuang'an, established in 2010, operates in the pet food industry, including the development and production of pet food and health products, with brands like Black Nose and Cat Doctor [5]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 407 million yuan and a net profit of 12.16 million yuan by 2025, with total assets of 506 million yuan and net assets of 144 million yuan [6]. Market Context - The pet consumption market in China is expected to grow significantly, reaching 405 billion yuan by 2028, with pet food accounting for 53.7% of the market share [7]. - The competitive landscape includes major players like Guai Bao Pet and Zhong Chong Co., with significant revenue figures, highlighting the challenges faced by Qingdao Shuang'an [9]. Strategic Implications - The investment is seen as a strategic move for Wens Foodstuff Group to diversify and stabilize its business amid declining profits, with a projected net profit drop of 40.73%-46.12% in 2025 [9][10]. - By acquiring Qingdao Shuang'an, Wens aims to leverage synergies in cost reduction, product upgrades, and channel sharing, potentially enhancing future profit growth [10].

生生生 生生生生生生生生生生生生生 生生生生 2 0 2 6 . 0 2 . 0 6 作者：姜振飞 联系方式： jiangzhenfei@zjtfqh.com 审核：李文涛 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 观点小结 生猪 定性 解析 从业资格证号：F03143941 交易咨询证号：Z0022201 临近春节终端备货接近尾声，屠宰企业开工率接近年度高点，下周上半周北方小年过后，家庭备货也 将基本结束，屠宰企业将陆续停工，现货价格也将逐步停止报价，因春节后是需求淡季，市场对春节后现货 价格预期较为悲观，因此养殖端在春节前出栏较为积极，从规模化样本企业小幅超额完成1月出栏计划以及 牧原将出栏体重降至120公斤以下，加上标肥价差持续走扩，肥猪出现相对偏紧的情况来看，春节前养殖端 出栏是积极的，这也降低节后的出栏压力。 核心观点 底部区间震荡 从上市企业业绩公告来看，2025年半数上市企业都是亏损的，结合期货价格以及现在的养殖成本来看， 2026年上半年实现盈利将比较困难，因此在预期2026年较为悲观的情况下，上半年养殖端压栏以及二育将较 为谨慎，持续的亏损也将促使一些低效能的企业 ...

温氏股份加入宠物食品混战。近日，温氏股份发布公告，公司全资子公司广东温氏投资有限公司（以下简称"温氏投资"）拟受让青岛双安生物科技有限公司 （以下简称"青岛双安"）部分股权并向其进行增资，进而切入宠物食品这一细分赛道。 公告显示，此次交易，温氏投资拟投资不超过1.47亿元。其中，温氏投资拟受让温润农科壹号（珠海）创业投资基金合伙企业（有限合伙）等4名交易对手 持有的青岛双安合计1486.84万元的注册资本，交易对价为4438.54万元。同时，温氏投资拟以1.03亿元认购青岛双安新增注册资本3445.79万元。交易完成 后，温氏投资将持有青岛双安48.18%的股权，成为其第一大股东。 公开信息显示，青岛双安是一家从事宠物食品业务的公司，成立于2010年，业务涉及宠物食品、宠物保健品研发生产及供应链服务和销售渠道运营等，打造 了黑鼻头、猫博士等自有品牌。2025年，青岛双安实现营收4.07亿元，净利润为1216.6万元。 对于此次投资，温氏股份称，旨在继续巩固现有主业优势的基础上，积极探索并布局具备协同效应及战略价值的优质细分赛道，提升公司可持续发展能力与 抗风险能力。这一选择或与其主业承压有关，业绩预告显示，由 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry compared to the overall market performance [1][4]. Core Insights - The total net profit for the tracked companies in the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector is projected to be CNY 30.949 billion for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 20%. The top three sub-sectors by profit growth are animal health (+76%), planting industry (+54%), and pet food (+3%) [3][4]. - The report highlights significant performance disparities among different sectors, with the animal husbandry sector facing challenges due to oversupply and declining prices, particularly in pig farming, where the average price of pigs dropped by 29.9% year-on-year [3][5]. - The pet food sector shows resilience in domestic markets despite a slowdown in overseas growth, with a projected online sales growth of 10.2% in 2025 [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Animal Husbandry - The pig farming sector is expected to see a net profit of CNY 20.908 billion in 2025, down 26% year-on-year, with significant losses reported in Q4 [5][8]. - The chicken farming sector remains profitable, with white chicken prices stable and yellow chicken prices showing a 9.5% increase year-on-year [3][4]. Pet Food - Domestic pet food sales are projected to grow, with major companies like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co. expected to report net profits of CNY 0.678 billion and CNY 0.433 billion, respectively [3][4]. Planting Industry - The report notes a recovery in edible mushroom prices, with a projected net profit increase of 154% for Zhongxing Junye in 2025 [3][4]. - Blueberry prices have slightly decreased, but companies are expected to maintain profitability through volume sales [3][4]. Animal Health - The animal health sector is projected to see a net profit increase of 76%, driven by new product launches and increased demand for veterinary vaccines [3][4]. Seed Industry - The seed industry is facing challenges with low grain prices, leading to a mixed performance among companies, with Dabeinong expected to report a significant loss [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - Pacific Securities report indicates that Wens Foodstuff Group expects a decline in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, projecting a range of 5-5.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.73%-46.12% [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The company's net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to be between 4.8-5.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 44.64%-49.86% [1] - For 2026-2027, the projected net profit attributable to shareholders is 8.325 billion yuan and 15.018 billion yuan, with earnings per share (EPS) estimated at 1.25 yuan and 2.26 yuan respectively [1] Group 2: Business Performance - The company anticipates a total pig output of 40.4769 million heads in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.11%, exceeding the initial target of 33-35 million heads [1] - Profit margins in the pig and chicken farming sectors are expected to decline due to a significant drop in market prices, which has outpaced cost reductions [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The industry is expected to continue capacity reduction in the first half of the year due to persistently low pig prices since early 2026, with a potential turning point in the market likely occurring in the second half [1] - Despite the anticipated downturn in the pig cycle for 2026, the company's ongoing cost reduction efforts suggest that performance may still see growth over the next two years [1] Group 4: Valuation - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12.64x for 2026 and 7.01x for 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]