国盛证券研报称，黄鸡价格持续冲高。据新牧网，8 月第三周，快速型、中速型、慢速型黄羽肉鸡均价 分别为 10.84 元/kg、12.68 元/kg、15.24 元/kg，同比分别+5.9%、5.0%、5.0%，黄鸡已连续 5 周持续上 涨，按立华股份成本 11 元/kg，假设单只黄羽肉鸡的体重 2.2kg，则单羽盈利已经修复至 3.7 元。我们认 为，前期低价或刺激行业部分去产，同时叠加季节性需求驱动强化涨价趋势，根据新禽况预测，1）供 应端看，外围中、快速类供应量已明显减少，市场出现缺货情况，而高档类正品销售畅通，非标产品仍 在处理中，但涨价情绪极高；2）需求端看，升学宴拉动消费，市场需求向好，同时对于中秋国庆备 货，行业续养也逐步启动，整体销量提振。我们认为，即使考虑行业补栏周期，本轮景气周期或持续一 个季度左右，板块或同步基本面迎来回暖，建议关注黄鸡龙头标的温氏股份、立华股份。 ...

Group 1: Zhongtong Express (中通快递) - Profitability under pressure, adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 decreased by 26.8% YoY, with a single ticket net profit of 0.21 CNY, down 12 cents YoY [2][7][10] - Revenue for Q2 2025 reached 11.8 billion CNY, a 10.3% increase YoY, while H1 2025 revenue was 22.7 billion CNY, up 9.8% YoY [7][9] - Market share increased to 19.5% in Q2 2025, with a package volume of 9.85 billion pieces, up 16.5% YoY [9][10] - Capital expenditure for 2025 expected to remain flat or slightly decrease, with H1 2025 capital expenditure at 3.1 billion CNY [9][10] - Mid-term dividend of 0.3 USD per share, with a payout ratio of 40% [9][10] Group 2: Yuanda Pharmaceutical (远大医药) - Revenue for H1 2025 was 6.107 billion HKD, a 1.0% increase YoY, with net profit of 1.169 billion HKD, slightly down by 5.9% YoY [3][12] - The nuclear medicine segment saw a revenue increase of 105.5% YoY, contributing significantly to overall growth [12][13] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 12.254 billion, 13.376 billion, and 14.779 billion HKD, with net profits of 2.185 billion, 2.462 billion, and 2.706 billion HKD respectively [14] Group 3: Yuandong Bio (苑东生物) - H1 2025 revenue was 654 million CNY, down 2.3% YoY, with net profit of 137 million CNY, down 6.8% YoY [4][16] - The company is focusing on self-research and strategic investments to accelerate innovation [16][17] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.501 billion, 1.795 billion, and 2.202 billion CNY, with net profits of 282 million, 345 million, and 431 million CNY respectively [18] Group 4: Pop Mart (泡泡玛特) - H1 2025 revenue reached 13.876 billion CNY, a 204.4% increase YoY, with net profit of 4.574 billion CNY, up 396.5% YoY [19][20] - The company is expanding its global presence, with significant growth in the Americas and Asia-Pacific regions [19][20] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 11.128 billion, 15.332 billion, and 20.295 billion CNY, with substantial YoY growth rates [21] Group 5: Nanjing Steel (南钢股份) - H1 2025 revenue was 28.944 billion CNY, down 14.06% YoY, while net profit increased by 18.63% to 1.463 billion CNY [23][24] - High-end products contributed significantly to profit, with advanced steel materials accounting for 29.77% of total sales [24] - The company is expanding its overseas operations, including a new coke production base in Indonesia [24] Group 6: Huayang Group (华阳集团) - H1 2025 revenue was 5.311 billion CNY, a 26.65% increase YoY, with net profit of 341 million CNY, up 18.98% YoY [26][27] - The automotive electronics and precision die-casting segments are driving growth, with significant new orders from major global clients [26][27] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 12.71 billion, 15.89 billion, and 19.17 billion CNY, with net profits of 870 million, 1.15 billion, and 1.43 billion CNY respectively [27] Group 7: Shenhuo Co. (神火股份) - H1 2025 revenue was 20.428 billion CNY, up 12.12% YoY, while net profit decreased by 16.62% to 1.904 billion CNY [29][30] - The aluminum business is the main contributor to revenue, while coal business faced significant price declines [30][31] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.41, 2.67, and 2.96 CNY per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 8, 7, and 7 [31] Group 8: Beixin Building Materials (北新建材) - H1 2025 revenue was 13.558 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 0.29% YoY, with net profit down 12.85% [33][34] - The gypsum board business is under pressure, while waterproof and paint businesses are showing growth [34][35] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.935 billion, 4.464 billion, and 4.952 billion CNY, with corresponding EPS of 2.33, 2.64, and 2.93 CNY [35]

近期，由于夏季天气炎热、消费季节性偏弱，加之前期二次育肥生猪出栏，猪肉市场供应有所增加，生 猪价格小幅回落。据国家发展改革委监测，近日全国平均猪粮比价跌至6∶1以下，按照《完善政府猪肉 储备调节机制做好猪肉市场保供稳价工作预案》规定，进入三级预警区间。为促进生猪市场平稳运行， 近期国家发展改革委将会同有关部门开展中央冻猪肉储备收储。相关概念股：德康农牧(02419)、中粮 家佳康(01610)、万洲国际(00288)。 据悉，生猪行业去产能大幕拉开。农业农村部最新调度显示，当前，我国生猪产能阶段性偏高，为防范 生产大起大落、价格大涨大跌风险，将实施生猪产能综合调控，引导调减约100万头能繁母猪。 能繁母猪存栏是生猪供应的"总开关"，直接决定10个月后的商品猪出栏规模，若调减能繁母猪存量，10 个月后生猪出栏量将相应减少。这意味着，下半年和明年春节后生猪出栏将明显增加，由于生猪的自然 生长周期，从现在开始调减能繁母猪产能，调控效果将于10个月后落地。 在国内猪肉弱需求、强供给的背景下，年内生猪价格持续走低，尤其是进入7月猪肉消费淡季以来，消 费不振使得猪价进一步走低。 事实上，今年以来多次政策出台，倡导行业减母 ...

行业动态跟踪 | 农林牧渔 7 月上市猪企出栏量同比高增环比下降，体重持续回落 证券研究报告 2025 年 08 月 21 日 生猪行业动态跟踪报告（月度） 我们通过分析 18 家上市猪企的出栏月报，得出以下结论： 1 | 请务必仔细阅读报告尾部的投资评级说明和声明 上市猪企 7 月生猪销售均价环比+1.90%，同比-22.35%。头部企业中，牧原 股份/温氏股份/新希望销售均价为 14.30/14.58/14.44（元/公斤），环比分别 +1.56%/+1.32%/+1.83%，同比分别-21.86%/-23.06%/-23.19%。7 月上市猪 企出栏均价同比下降的原因是 24 年 7 月猪价出现明显上涨，导致基数较高。 目前生猪供应充足，猪价总体仍在低位。 上市猪企 7 月出栏均重为 105.7 公斤/头，环比-1.34%，同比+0.53%。出栏 均重方面，上市猪企 7 月出栏体重环比下降，同比上升。上市猪企受政策导 向影响，主动降低出栏均重。头部企业中，牧原股份/温氏股份/新希望商品 猪出栏均重为 128.07/105.69/95.81（公斤/头），环比分别-1.11%/-7.03%/ -3.43%， ...

证券日报网讯 温氏股份（300498）8月21日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司现已建设覆盖生产 经营管理全流程、全业务场景的数字化决策系统和大数据平台，包括对合作农户的管理。相关数字化建 设成果获得国家信通院、广东省等多项荣誉和认可。 ...

Summary of the Pig Farming Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The pig farming industry is currently experiencing a price bottoming phase, with pig prices reaching a new low not seen in about a year and a half. This is primarily due to passive capacity reduction, ongoing production cuts driven by policy, and tightening environmental regulations [2][6]. Key Price Trends - In July 2025, the average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork were 35.7 CNY/kg, 34.91 CNY/kg, and 25.37 CNY/kg, reflecting year-on-year declines of 18.65%, 20.05%, and 12.8% respectively. Month-on-month, piglet prices decreased by 4.09%, while live pig and pork prices saw slight increases of 1.72% and 0.31% [2][3]. - By early August 2025, the average selling price of live pigs had dropped to 13.82 CNY/kg, continuing a downward trend [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side has significantly influenced recent price movements. In early July, large-scale farms reduced output to support prices, but increased supply from smallholders later in the month exerted downward pressure on prices. Demand was weak due to seasonal factors, with expectations for improvement in late August or early September as schools reopen [4][6]. Environmental Regulations Impact - Stricter environmental policies are placing considerable pressure on small to medium-sized farms. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has intensified inspections, particularly in southern water network regions, which is expected to accelerate the upgrade or exit of outdated production capacity, promoting high-quality development in the pig farming industry [5][6]. Profitability Analysis - As of August 8, 2025, self-breeding and self-raising pigs yielded an average profit of 45.13 CNY per head, while purchased piglets continued to incur losses of 134.14 CNY per head, indicating that self-breeding remains slightly profitable while external purchases are increasingly unprofitable [3][7]. Major Companies Performance - In July 2025, major pig farming companies reported the following slaughter volumes: Muyuan (7.5 million heads, down 10.4%), Wens (3.1 million heads, up 5.24%), New Hope (1.3 million heads, up 2.07%), and Zhengbang (700,000 heads, down 2.16%). Collectively, 17 listed companies slaughtered 15.81 million heads, a 5.3% decrease month-on-month [3][9]. - The average slaughter weights for July were: Muyuan (108.57 kg), Wens (105.69 kg), and New Hope (95.81 kg), with most companies showing a decrease in average weight, indicating a continued trend towards lighter slaughter weights [3][11]. Cost Structure and Competitive Advantage - Muyuan has a significant cost advantage, with its total cost in July 2025 reported at 11.9 CNY/kg. This positions leading companies favorably to achieve good returns this year and maintain profitability into 2026 [3][12]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to continue facing a supply surplus in the short term, leading to a price bottoming phase. However, in the medium to long term, this situation may facilitate the exit of outdated production capacity and stabilize the market. Regulatory policies are likely to remain strict, with expectations for improved prices and profitability in the second half of the year and into 2026 as pressures ease [6][13][14]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on leading companies with clear cost advantages and high performance reliability, such as Muyuan, Wens, and Shennong Technology. The sector is currently undervalued, presenting safety and upside potential. Additionally, close attention should be paid to trade tensions and changes in import/export policies to mitigate risks associated with raw material cost fluctuations [8].

Economic News - The State Council emphasizes enhancing macro policy effectiveness and stabilizing market expectations, focusing on domestic circulation and effective investment expansion [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 266.5 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40% [2] - From January to July 2025, national public budget revenue was 1.35839 trillion yuan, with tax revenue declining by 0.3% [3] - Trade with Shanghai Cooperation Organization countries reached 247.7 billion USD in the first half of the year, a 0.8% increase [4] - The Ministry of Finance reported a 0.7% decline in government fund budget revenue from January to July 2025 [5] - Securities transaction stamp duty increased by 62.5% year-on-year in July 2025 [6] - The central bank introduced a series of monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts and increased loan quotas [7] Important Company Information - JD.com has over 150,000 full-time delivery riders, advocating for social security benefits for gig workers [6] - Dongfeng Group is selling a 50% stake in Dongfeng Honda Engine Company [6] - Leap Motor reported a 174% increase in revenue to 24.25 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, achieving a net profit of 30 million yuan [6] - SoftBank announced a 2 billion USD investment in Intel, reflecting confidence in advanced semiconductor manufacturing [6] - Kandi Technologies has entered into a partnership with CATL to supply battery swap stations for commercial vehicles [6][7] Industry Analysis Coal Industry - Coking coal prices have risen significantly, with the price index reaching 1340.16 yuan/ton, a 17.44% increase [8] - Coking coal inventory at three ports decreased by 14.06% month-on-month [11] - Independent coking plants saw an increase in inventory but a decrease in average available days [9] - The overall capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises rose to 74.03% [10] - The demand side shows a potential increase in demand driven by hydroelectric projects [11] Agriculture and Livestock Industry - In July 2025, pig prices fluctuated, with live pig prices averaging 14.91 yuan/kg, a 1.72% increase [13] - The number of breeding sows showed a slight increase, indicating a potential stabilization in supply [14] - Policy measures are focused on reducing production capacity and controlling weight, which may stabilize prices in the long term [15] - Major pig farming companies reported varying sales prices and volumes, with some experiencing a decline in output [16] Machinery Industry - Parker New Materials specializes in high-end metal forging products, serving various industries including aerospace and energy [18] - The company reported a revenue of 7.72 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 2.95% increase year-on-year [19] - The demand for high-precision forging products is expected to grow, improving the company's product structure and profitability [19] - China's energy cost advantages in electricity and natural gas may help the company capture overseas market share [20]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The agricultural sector index decreased by 0.14%, ranking 24th among 31 primary industries, while the broader market indices, such as the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite, increased by 2.37% and 1.70% respectively [12][14] - The report highlights a downward trend in pig prices, with the average price as of August 18 being 13.55 CNY/kg, a decrease of 0.21 CNY/kg from the previous week, marking a new low for the year [5][16] - The report emphasizes the government's commitment to reducing production capacity in the pig farming sector to stabilize prices, with expectations of increased supply pressure in the latter half of 2025 [6][19] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector underperformed the market, with a 0.14% decline in the agricultural index, while the broader indices saw gains [12][14] - The pig farming and related feed sectors experienced the largest declines due to falling pig prices [14] Livestock Industry Tracking Pig Farming - The average pig price has been declining, with significant supply but weak demand leading to a challenging market environment [5][16] - As of August 15, self-breeding pig farmers reported an average profit of 28 CNY per head, down 17 CNY from the previous week, while external pig purchases resulted in a loss of 157 CNY per head [17] - The government is enforcing production capacity reduction policies, which are expected to accelerate in the future [18] Broiler Chicken - As of August 15, the price of broiler chicken chicks rose to 3.80 CNY per chick, while the price of broiler chickens was 3.52 CNY per jin, showing a slight decline [31] - The supply of chicks is tight due to reduced breeding and increased culling, leading to a potential slowdown in chick price increases [31] Crop Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have rebounded slightly, with white sugar priced at 6000 CNY/ton as of August 15, an increase of 30 CNY/ton [34] - Soybean prices have seen a minor increase, with the landed price of Brazilian soybeans at 4040 CNY/ton, up 1.8% [34] - Corn prices have slightly decreased, with an average price of 2356 CNY/ton, down 11 CNY from the previous week [34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [5][63]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in the pig farming sector, the potential for valuation reassessment, and the strong growth in the pet economy, particularly for domestic brands [5][63]. Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The average price of pigs as of August 14, 2025, is 13.74 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.28 CNY/kg. The price of 15 kg piglets is 484 CNY/head, down 33 CNY/head from the previous week [12]. - The report suggests that the swine industry is moving towards a self-regulatory and stabilizing phase, with top companies like Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture being recommended for investment [12][5]. 2. Poultry Industry - The report notes a decline in poultry prices, with the average price of broiler chickens at 3.60 CNY/kg, remaining stable week-on-week. The report recommends companies like San Nong Development and Lihua Shares [21][22]. 3. Animal Health - The animal health sector is experiencing a recovery, with companies like Huayuan Biological, Reap Biological, and Placo showing improved performance. The approval of mRNA vaccines for veterinary use is seen as a significant technological advancement [33][5]. 4. Planting Industry - The report indicates an increase in soybean meal prices, with the average price reaching 3092 CNY/ton, up 2.8% week-on-week. Companies involved in transgenic seed commercialization are recommended for investment [38][42]. 5. Feed Industry - Feed prices are fluctuating, with the price for fattening pig feed at 3.34 CNY/kg, down 0.3% month-on-month. The report suggests that the feed industry is likely to see increased concentration, recommending companies like Haida Group [44][46]. 6. Pet Industry - The pet economy is booming, with the market size for pet consumption in urban areas projected to reach 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, growing by 7.5%. Companies like Guobao Pet, Zhongchong Shares, and Petty Shares are recommended for investment [53][54].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][4][49]. Core Insights - The report highlights the pressure on pig prices, which have slightly weakened, and emphasizes the growth in online sales of pet food [1][4]. - The report suggests focusing on the "anti-involution" process in the pig farming industry and capturing investment opportunities in quality pig enterprises [4][5]. - Short-term price weakness combined with policy guidance may lead to a restart in capacity reduction, with a recommendation to closely monitor the implementation of industry regulation measures [4][5]. Summary by Sections Agricultural Stock Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index fell by 0.1%, while the CSI 300 rose by 2.4% [4][5]. - Top five gainers included COFCO Sugar (35.9%), Shenlian Bio (14.0%), and Xiaoming Co. (8.9%) [4][5]. Pig Farming - The average price of external three yuan pigs was 13.67 yuan/kg, down 0.5% week-on-week [4][5]. - The average weight of market pigs was stable at 127.82 kg, with a slight increase of 0.02 kg per head week-on-week [4][5]. - The average price of weaned piglets was 429 yuan/head, down 11 yuan week-on-week [4][5]. Poultry Farming - The average selling price of white feather broiler chicks was 3.48 yuan/chick, up 18.4% week-on-week [4][5]. - The average selling price of white feather broiler meat was 3.35 yuan/kg, up 2.6% week-on-week [4][5]. Pet Food - In July, the total sales on platforms like Tmall, JD, and Douyin reached approximately 2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5% [4][5]. - The cumulative sales from January to July were 16.9 billion yuan, up 12% year-on-year [4][5]. Animal Health - The report indicates a recovery in the performance of animal health companies due to stable profits in pig farming and increased demand for vaccines [4][5]. - Jinhe Bio reported a revenue of 1.39 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.5% [4][5].