中金公司研报指出，温氏股份预告2025年利润50-55亿元，符合市场预期公司2025年归母净利润预告为 50-55亿元，同降40%-46%，主因畜禽价格回落。以预告中值测算，4Q25归母净利润-2.6亿元至+2.5亿 元，4Q25单季度承压主因猪价低迷。猪鸡销售量均创历史新高，成本优势持续深化。公司战略从"规模 增长"转向"质量提升"，锚定"成长、科技、绿色、有担当、高质量"的新温氏定位。同时，公司强化配 套业务、构建产业链生态圈，以联农带农、优化股东回报践行担当，引领养殖业发展新范式。兼顾盈利 预测调整及龙头头均市值中枢，维持目标价25元，对应26/27年32/22倍P/E，47%上行空间。 ...

今日早参 2026 年 1 月 12 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：再度上调 2026 年美国 GDP 增长预测 在 2025 年 11 月 3 日发布的美国年度展望《不均衡的经济"再加速"》中， 我们对 2026 年美国 GDP 全年同比增速的预测为 2.3%，高于彼时彭博一致 预期（1.8%）。两个月后的今天，我们重申对美国总体增长偏强的预测，尤 其考虑到 2026 年包括中期选举在内的多重因素将推动特朗普政府实施更为 宽松的财政、货币、及地产相关政策（参见《特朗普为何急于搞活美国地产 市场？——美国宏观深度报告系列之一》，2025/12/16）。然而，考虑到 11- 12 月政府关门对增长的技术性扰动、AI+相关投资增长或将再度超预期，我 们将 2026 年美国 GDP 增速进一步上调至 2.6%。 同时，关税传导总体低于 预期、租金通胀温和、关税或将边际下调、叠加新增就业增长明显收缩，我 们小幅下调对 2026 年美国通胀走势的预测。然而，统计上"高增长、温和 通胀"的基准预测掩盖了或将恶化的 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The sentiment in the pork market has significantly improved, with a notable reduction in losses for pig farming. The average price of live pigs is currently 12.55 CNY/kg, remaining stable week-on-week. The number of breeding sows has decreased by 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year, indicating a steady adjustment in pig production capacity [2][12] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has initiated a nationwide inspection of winter crop seeds to ensure safety for the upcoming spring and summer planting seasons. This includes a focus on key crops such as corn, rice, soybeans, cotton, and vegetables. The commercialization of genetically modified seeds is expected to accelerate, enhancing self-sufficiency rates for critical varieties [1][11] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture is conducting inspections to ensure seed quality and compliance, which is crucial for agricultural production safety. The emphasis on genetically modified technology is expected to revolutionize yield improvements, with companies like Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development likely to benefit [1][11] Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is 12.55 CNY/kg, with a slight increase in slaughter volume by 17.4% year-on-year. The market sentiment has improved significantly, with a reduction in losses for self-bred and purchased pig farming, indicating a potential for recovery in the sector. Recommended stocks include companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [2][12] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2353.51 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.09% week-on-week. The international price is 5.21 USD/bushel, up 2.11% [26][27] - Wheat: The domestic average price is 2513.62 CNY/ton, down 0.09% week-on-week. The international price is 5.82 USD/bushel, down 0.13% [29][31] - Soybeans: The domestic average price is 4048.42 CNY/ton, up 0.63% week-on-week. The international price is 405.95 USD/ton, up 0.74% [39][43] - Cotton: The average price in Xinjiang is 15530.00 CNY/ton, up 0.84% week-on-week [45][49] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.64 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.76%. The prices for chicken feed and egg-laying hen feed remain stable [52][54]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the development of a modern agricultural operating system in Guiyang and Gui'an, focusing on the integration of leading enterprises, cooperatives, family farms, and large-scale farming households to drive rural revitalization and increase farmers' income [2][3][5]. Group 1: Leading Enterprises - Leading enterprises are identified as the "locomotive" of modern agricultural development, with successful examples such as the collaboration between a modern ecological breeding area and Wens Foodstuff Group, achieving a chicken survival rate of over 98% and increasing annual income for farmers by over 110,000 yuan [3]. - Gui'an has introduced four leading enterprises, including Wens and Dekang, and aims for a chicken production capacity of 30 million birds and a production value of 1.22 billion yuan by 2024, maintaining the highest output in the province [5]. - The local government is actively supporting the growth of leading enterprises through financial products like "Shuangnong Direct Loan," with 62 enterprises receiving loans totaling 120 million yuan [5]. Group 2: Cooperatives - Cooperatives serve as a crucial link between farmers and markets, with successful models like the cooperative in Wengjing Village, which integrates pig farming and vegetable planting, benefiting local villagers through land transfer and collective dividends [6]. - The government is enhancing cooperative development by providing project support and facilitating access to funding, leading to the establishment of 73 new professional cooperatives by 2025 [7]. Group 3: Family Farms - Family farms are highlighted as key units for specialized operations and income generation, with examples like Zhang Ya's family farm producing 20,000 kg of fruit annually, generating a total output value of 400,000 yuan [8]. - The local government encourages the establishment of family farms by optimizing the business environment, resulting in the addition of 248 new family farms by 2025 [11]. Group 4: Large-scale Farming Households - Large-scale farming households are strengthening the agricultural foundation, with examples of innovative practices in mushroom cultivation and earthworm farming, contributing to local employment and ecological sustainability [12][14]. - Gui'an is promoting the expansion of large-scale farming households, with plans to cultivate 2,265 households by 2025, supported by financial policies and project assistance [14]. Group 5: Future Directions - Guiyang and Gui'an will continue to focus on the collaborative development of leading enterprises, cooperatives, family farms, and large-scale farming households, aiming to create a competitive agricultural ecosystem with a target of "ten chains, hundred parks, billion-level, and ten thousand entities" [15].

行情回顾： 本周（2026.01.05-2026.01.09）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 3010.28 点(周环比+0.98%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 4758.92 点（周环比+2.79%），深证综指收于 2660.05 点（周环比+5.10%），上证综指收于 4120.43 点（周环比+3.82%），科 创板收于 1475.97 点（周环比+9.80%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑输上证综指。 生猪养殖： 元旦前随着消费端的好转，生猪价格底部回升，节后整体处于供需双弱的情况，目前生猪价格底部震荡。本周生猪出 栏均重为 128.54 公斤/头，生猪出栏均重持续下降，在此期间的过程中猪价相对坚挺，主要系 12 月集团的超量出栏。 从供给端角度来看，1 月份预计出栏总量环比减少，但是由于元旦后供需双弱以及行业二育入场，预计春节前后生猪 价格仍有下探空间。政策端主动去产能或持续推进，同时板块的持续亏损利好板块去产能逻辑和明年下半年猪价上涨。 短期来看，生猪价格仍有下降空间，近期行业产能在政策调控和供给压力下已经有所减少，同时行业价格已经跌破完 全成本线，预计整体亏损下行业产能去化，目前板块景气度底部企稳。中长期来看， ...

农业行业 行业研究|行业周报 12 月猪企出栏延续增量降重 ——东方证券农林牧渔行业周报（20260105-20260111） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：（1）看好生猪养殖板块，近期政策与市场合力推动生猪养殖行业产能去化， 结合新生仔猪情况，预计 26Q2 猪价拐点显现，板块业绩长期提升可期，相关标的：牧原 股份(002714，买入)、温氏股份(300498，买入)、神农集团(605296，未评级)等。（2） 后周期板块，行业结构性成长趋势持续，若本轮生猪去产能顺畅，产业链利润有望逐步 向下游传导，驱动动保板块上行，相关标的：海大集团(002311，买入)、瑞普生物 (300119，未评级)等。（3）种植链，当前粮价上行趋势已确立，种植&种业基本面向 好，大种植投资机会凸显，相关标的：苏垦农发(601952，未评级)、北大荒(600598，未 评级)、海南橡胶(601118，未评级)、隆平高科(000998，未评级)等。（4）宠物板块，宠 食行业正处于增量、提价逻辑持续落地的阶段，海外市场增量不断，国产品牌认可度持 续提升，龙头企业成长持续兑现，相关标的：乖宝宠物(301498，未评级)、中宠股 ...

中经记者 蒋政 北京报道 看到2025年生猪价格走势，河南养殖户老张庆幸在5月份之后没有补栏。他的猪场因为猪瘟遭遇清圈， 在分析市场行情后，老张计划空置半年。 "养殖应该在9月份左右就进入亏损状态了。现在依然不盈利。自己好歹躲过了这波低迷行情。"老张告 诉《中国经营报》记者。 记者注意到，"产能调整缓慢，猪价低位运行"是我国生猪养殖行业在2025年的主基调。而在现有产能贡 献中，规模猪企依然占据大头。尽管多家猪企全力进行降本增效，但在供需失衡面前依然难掩行业亏 损。 多位行业人士预测，到2026年第二季度，猪价有望实现盈亏平衡线。而整个行业未来将由规模效应转向 精细化运营，市场也将步入微利阶段。 供需失衡引发行业性亏损 根据卓创资讯数据，截至2025年12月28日，全国生猪交易均价为12.25元/公斤，较26日上涨0.62元/公 斤。 正常情况下，我国生猪养殖成本盈亏线在14元/公斤之上浮动。目前行业依然处于亏损状态。 老张的养殖场没有雇人，其养殖成本在13元/公斤。但是，因为零星出现的猪瘟，让他的猪场持续出现 清圈。直到2025年5月份之后，他就将猪场空置了。按照他的计算，2025年上半年，猪价还在盈亏线之 ...

证券日报网讯1月9日，温氏股份（300498）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司将继续聚焦主营业 务，全力做好提升业绩与内在价值工作，在高质量发展的基础上，更好地回馈广大投资者。 ...

Economic News - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the export control of dual-use items to Japan, stating that China aims to prevent Japan's militarization and nuclear ambitions through legal measures [1] - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the U.S. for seizing a Russian-flagged oil tanker, emphasizing that such actions violate international law [1] - The Ministry of Commerce commented on Meta's acquisition of Manus, indicating that the government supports lawful international business operations [1] - The Ministry of Commerce discussed South Korean President Lee Jae-myung's visit to China, highlighting agreements to deepen economic cooperation [1] - The State Administration for Market Regulation held discussions with the photovoltaic industry association and leading companies to prevent market manipulation [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology warned against irrational competition in the lithium battery industry [1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue a 1-year fixed-rate bond totaling 135 billion yuan and a 30-year bond totaling 32 billion yuan [1] Company Insights - Sinopec announced a restructuring with China Aviation Oil Group to enhance supply chain efficiency and promote sustainable aviation fuel development [4] - Beifang Changlong plans to acquire 51% of Shunyi Technology, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [4] - Quanxin Co. intends to issue convertible bonds to raise up to 312 million yuan for aviation communication projects and working capital [4] - Yingqu Technology forecasts a net profit of 540 million to 660 million yuan for 2025, driven by stable growth in various business segments [4] - Wens Foodstuff Group expects a net profit of 5 billion to 5.5 billion yuan for 2025, a decline attributed to lower sales prices of pigs and chickens [4] Industry Analysis - The securities industry is expected to see improved performance in 2026 due to supportive policies and accelerated consolidation [6][7] - The average daily trading volume has increased since early 2025, indicating improved market activity [7] - Regulatory support for technology growth companies has led to increased IPO and financing activity, benefiting brokerage revenues [8] - The self-operated investment segment is becoming crucial for brokerage firms' profitability, with a focus on maintaining stability amid market volatility [9] - The securities industry is likely to experience further consolidation, with notable mergers already occurring among leading firms [11]

对于2025年12月生猪销售情况，卓创资讯生猪分析师范晴晴向智通财经记者表示："12月生猪价格呈现 跌-涨-跌-涨走势，月底涨幅较大，但全月均价环比仍微跌。"她指出，月初养殖端出栏积极性高，市场 供应充足，而终端需求平淡，导致价格下行；中下旬受南方腌腊备货带动，价格短暂回升，但备货结束 后需求收缩，价格再次回调。"2026年春节在2月中旬，终端备货启动时间较晚，预计1月末才逐步开 启。" 新希望相关负责人向智通财经记者表示，去年与以往年度不一样，旺季不旺，受整体供给宽松影响，价 格仍低迷。基本盘来看，2026年二季度前供给端仍相对充裕。 卓创数据显示，2025年12月全国白条猪肉出厂均价同比下降26.21%，低价在一定程度上刺激终端消 费，屠宰企业日均屠宰量环比增幅15.22%，但仍难以扭转猪价整体颓势。 去产能进程缓慢 1月9日，2025年猪价在12月触及新低中收官，有猪企高管向智通财经记者表示："猪价已经持续倒挂将 近半年。" 上市猪企近期陆续披露的去年12月销售数据显示，2025生猪价格"旺季不旺"，部分企业出栏量环比上 升，但销售均价普遍同比大幅下滑，行业整体仍处于底部运行阶段。智通财经记者从业内采访 ...