Core Points - The China Securities Index AH Economic Growth Index has shown significant growth, with a 7.97% increase over the past month, 10.26% over the last three months, and a year-to-date increase of 13.34% [1] - The index comprises financially sound leading companies from both mainland and Hong Kong markets, reflecting the performance of companies benefiting from changes in the national economic structure [1] - The index's top ten holdings include Tencent Holdings (9.46%), Alibaba-W (9.43%), Meituan-W (3.83%), Yum China (3.37%), Jiangsu Bank (3.03%), Jitu Express-W (2.96%), Muyuan Foods (2.56%), Dekang Agriculture (2.43%), Wens Foodstuff Group (2.3%), and China Telecom (1.84%) [1] Market Composition - The index's market composition shows that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange accounts for 52.86%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange for 30.81%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for 16.33%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange for 0.00% [1] - In terms of industry representation, the index has 20.08% in industrials, 19.84% in consumer discretionary, 15.61% in communication services, 11.42% in information technology, 9.15% in consumer staples, 8.30% in financials, 6.14% in materials, 4.91% in healthcare, 1.69% in utilities, 1.68% in energy, and 1.18% in real estate [2] Index Adjustment Mechanism - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Weight factors are adjusted in accordance with the sample changes, and in special circumstances, temporary adjustments may be made [2]

Economic News - In June, the total electricity consumption in China reached 867 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [1] - The People's Bank of China announced that the 5-year LPR remains at 3.5% and the 1-year LPR at 3% [1] - The U.S. government is reviewing contracts between SpaceX and federal agencies due to concerns over potential waste in multi-billion dollar deals [1] - The Ministry of Transport reported that several key indicators of the "14th Five-Year Plan" have been completed ahead of schedule, including highway mileage and urban rail transit [1] - E-commerce in China saw a growth of 8.5% in online retail sales from January to June 2025, with significant increases in digital products and home appliances [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to release a plan to stabilize growth in ten key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals [1] - The European Investment Bank will launch a financing support plan totaling €4.25 billion for renewable energy and green technology investments in EU countries [1] Company News - Yushutech has begun its IPO counseling process with CITIC Securities as the advisor, aiming to submit its application by October 2025 [4] - Suzhou Goodark has been established in Singapore with an investment of approximately 8 million RMB for electronic materials and solar cell production [4] - Hongxin Technology signed contracts with a leading domestic flying car company for the development and procurement of components, which is expected to positively impact its performance [4] - Rainbowsoft's chairman proposed a cash dividend plan for 2025, suggesting a distribution of no less than 60% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [4] - Changyingtong expects revenue between 173 million to 211 million RMB for the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in net profit due to rising demand for optical fiber devices [4] Retail Industry - In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with a slowdown attributed to the earlier "618" shopping festival and weaker restaurant sales [5][6] - Essential consumption remains stable, while optional categories show a slowdown in recovery, with food and daily necessities performing well [6] - Home appliances and furniture sales saw significant growth, with home appliances up 32.4% and furniture up 28.7% year-on-year, driven by government policies [7] - Online retail sales increased by 8.5% in the first half of 2025, with physical goods online sales growing by 6.0%, indicating a steady growth in online consumption [8] - The retail market is expected to continue its recovery, with a focus on durable goods benefiting from policy support and consumer preferences for high-cost performance products [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The pig industry is experiencing a slight increase in breeding stock in Q2, with high profitability and a trend towards "de-involution" [2] - The latest pig price is 14.39 CNY/kg, with an average slaughter weight of 128.83 kg, indicating a potential for price stability despite slight fluctuations [3][13] - The Ministry of Agriculture's monitoring shows a 0.8% decrease in the national inventory of large pigs in June, suggesting a reduction in pig slaughter in July and August [3][47] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - Breeding stock has slightly increased, with a national breeding sow inventory of 40.43 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 0.12% [4][13] - The industry has maintained profitability for 14 consecutive months, with 11 out of 14 listed companies forecasting increased performance for the first half of 2025 [4] - The Ministry of Agriculture is implementing capacity regulation policies to stabilize pig prices, indicating a strong commitment to maintaining price stability [4][13] - Recommended companies include Dekang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuff Group, focusing on cost-leading enterprises with strong profit certainty for 2025 [4] 2. Poultry Industry - The price of chicken seedlings in Yantai is 1.9 CNY/bird, up 27% month-on-month but down 40% year-on-year; the price of broiler chickens is 3.3 CNY/kg, up 3.8% month-on-month [5][14] - The industry faces a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, leading to a reduction in production capacity among breeding farms [5][14] - Key investment focuses include high-return enterprises with sustainable ROE improvements, such as Yisheng Livestock and Shennong Development [5][14] 3. Feed Industry - The prices of various aquatic products have shown positive performance, with significant year-on-year increases for several species [6][15] - Recommended company is Haida Group, which is expected to benefit from industry recovery and improved management effectiveness [6][15] 4. Pet Industry - The uncertainty of tariffs and export fluctuations in Q2 have impacted the pet sector, but long-term effects are expected to be limited due to strong brand positioning and overseas factory layouts [7][17] 5. Agricultural Products - There is significant uncertainty regarding soybean imports in Q4, with August 1 being a critical date for monitoring US-China trade negotiations [8][18] - Natural rubber prices are expected to maintain a strong trend due to favorable macroeconomic conditions [8][18] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4059, up 1.09% from the previous week, while the Agricultural Index closed at 2755, down 0.14% [19][21] - The livestock sector index is at 3071, indicating a stable performance amidst market fluctuations [19][35]

Investment Rating - Investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing a supply contraction due to overselling of live pigs since June, leading to a potential increase in pig prices in Q3 2025. The average selling price of live pigs in June 2025 was 14.28 yuan/kg, down 2.28% month-on-month and down 21.99% year-on-year [4][15] - The supply-demand dynamics are improving, with the gross white price difference strengthening month-on-month. As of July 17, 2025, the gross white price difference was 4.71 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.45 yuan/kg compared to June, although lower than the same period in 2024 [5][27] - The industry is entering a critical supply contraction phase, with expectations for the price center of live pigs to rise monthly [4][15] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Since June, the overselling of live pigs has intensified, leading to a supply contraction. The average price of live pigs in June 2025 was 14.28 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 2.28% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.99% [4][15] - The monitoring sample indicated a slaughter volume of 4.3168 million heads in June 2025, down 6.20% month-on-month but up 12.22% year-on-year [4][15] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The gross white price difference has improved, indicating a stronger supply-demand balance. The national frozen product storage rate was 16.85%, down 0.03 percentage points year-on-year [5][27] - The industry is currently in a supply contraction phase, with expectations for the price center of live pigs to rise gradually [4][15] Company Performance - As of July 10, 2025, 12 listed pig farming companies reported a total of 16.1481 million heads sold in June, a year-on-year increase of 45.98% [6][34] - The average selling prices for major listed pig companies decreased month-on-month, with specific companies reporting the following prices: Muyuan Foods at 14.08 yuan/kg, Wens Foodstuff Group at 14.39 yuan/kg, and New Hope Liuhe at 14.18 yuan/kg [7][41]

Core Viewpoint - The HSBC Jintrust Consumer Dividend Stock Fund (540009) reported a profit of 2.0889 million yuan for Q2 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0084 yuan, and a net value growth rate of 0.97% during the period [3]. Fund Performance - As of the end of Q2 2025, the fund's scale was 196 million yuan [15]. - The fund's unit net value was 0.798 yuan as of July 18 [3]. - Over the past three months, the fund's adjusted unit net value growth rate was 0.15%, ranking 23 out of 41 comparable funds [3]. - Over the past six months, the adjusted unit net value growth rate was 3.38%, ranking 26 out of 41 comparable funds [3]. - Over the past year, the adjusted unit net value growth rate was 18.72%, ranking 9 out of 41 comparable funds [3]. - Over the past three years, the adjusted unit net value growth rate was -10.47%, ranking 11 out of 37 comparable funds [3]. Risk Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years was -0.0217, ranking 13 out of 37 comparable funds [8]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 30.23%, ranking 31 out of 37 comparable funds [10]. - The largest single-quarter drawdown occurred in Q1 2022, at 23.74% [10]. Investment Strategy - The fund maintained an average stock position of 88.87% over the past three years, compared to the industry average of 87.68% [13]. - The fund's highest stock position was 93.2% at the end of Q3 2019, while the lowest was 81.25% at the end of Q1 2025 [13]. - The fund's management indicated a focus on resilient stocks and adjustments in positions based on mid-term growth potential and certainty, with increased allocations in the agricultural sector during Q2 [3]. Holdings Concentration - As of the end of Q2 2025, the fund had a high concentration in its top ten holdings, which included Hai Da Group, Gree Electric Appliances, SF Holding, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, HLA Corp, Spring Airlines, Yonghui Superstores, Ximai Food, and Sun Paper [18].

Group 1 - Pork stocks experienced a significant upward trend, with Bangji Technology (603151) hitting the daily limit increase [1] - Shennong Group (605296) rose over 6%, indicating strong market interest [1] - Juxing Agriculture (603477) and Luoniushan (000735) both increased by more than 4%, reflecting positive sentiment in the sector [1] - Zhenghong Technology (000702) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) also saw gains, contributing to the overall bullish trend in pork-related stocks [1]

Group 1 - The A-share pork sector continues to rise, with Bangji Technology increasing by over 8% [1] - Other companies such as Shennong Group, Juxing Agriculture, Luoniushan, Dongrui Shares, Zhenghong Technology, and Wens Foodstuff also experienced gains [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the pig farming industry, emphasizing the long-term value of quality pig enterprises amidst the "anti-involution" trend [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the slight increase in the breeding sow inventory in Q2 2025, indicating a potential adjustment in production capacity going forward [3]. - It notes the ongoing decline in average slaughter weights for pigs, suggesting a shift in market dynamics and the need for quality-focused investments [3]. - The report also discusses the recovery in the chicken breeding sector, with a noted increase in the price of broiler chicks, although challenges remain due to high inventory levels [3]. - In the pet food sector, the report indicates a stable growth trajectory despite some short-term sales fluctuations, with a focus on leading brands [3]. - The animal health segment is expected to see a recovery in performance driven by improved profitability in livestock farming and rising demand for vaccines [3]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of pigs is reported at 14.39 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decline of 2.0% [3]. - The average slaughter weight for pigs has decreased to 128.83 kg, down 0.2 kg from the previous week [3]. - The breeding sow inventory at the end of Q2 2025 is reported at 40.43 million heads, a slight increase of 40,000 heads from Q1 2025 [3]. Chicken Farming - The average price of broiler chicks has increased by 54.3% week-on-week to 1.25 CNY/chick [3]. - The average price of broiler chickens is reported at 3.15 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 3.3% [3]. - The report anticipates a potential rebound in chick prices during July and August, despite current inventory pressures [3]. Pet Food - The total sales of pet food during the 5-6 month period reached 5.83 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6% [3]. - The cumulative sales for the first half of 2025 reached 14.91 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 12% [3]. - Leading brands are expected to continue outperforming the market, with a focus on product innovation and market leadership [3]. Animal Health - The report notes a 15.8% year-on-year increase in vaccine approvals, with a total of 9,128 batches approved from January to May 2025 [3]. - The recovery in livestock profitability is expected to drive demand for animal health products, particularly vaccines [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the investment logic for live pigs is marginally improving, supported by both fundamental and policy factors, with expectations of rising prices in the second half of 2025 [25] - The domestic pet consumption market remains stable, but trade tensions have put pressure on exports, with a notable decline in sales and export figures [20][29] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - Short-term supply increases have led to a decline in pig prices, but after market adjustments, prices may rise further [4][13] - As of July 18, the average price of live pigs was 14.19 yuan/kg, down 3.34% from the previous week [13][14] Weekly Market Performance - The agriculture index underperformed the market by 0.83 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.69% [30][32] - The animal health sector showed the highest gains among sub-sectors [30] Price Tracking - The average price of live pigs decreased to 14.27 yuan/kg, while the price of piglets increased slightly to 31.96 yuan/kg [41] - The price of corn decreased to 2473 yuan/ton, while soybean meal prices rose to 2928 yuan/ton [15][56] Key News - As of the end of Q2 2025, the number of breeding sows was reported at 40.43 million, with overall meat production showing a slight increase [38] - The report indicates a stable trend in domestic pet food sales, with a total of 31.87 billion yuan in sales for June, down 7.98% year-on-year [20][23] Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others, while in the feed sector, Hai Da Group and New Hope Liuhe are highlighted [25][29]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the fund, Guotai Agricultural Stock A, achieved a profit of 25.351 million yuan in Q2 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0881 yuan, and a net value growth rate of 5.49% during the reporting period [2] - As of July 18, 2025, the fund's unit net value was 1.716 yuan, and the fund manager, Cheng Zhou, oversees 9 funds, all of which have positive returns over the past year [2] - The fund's performance in terms of net value growth rates places it in the following rankings among comparable funds: 9th out of 41 for the last three months (6.24%), 17th out of 41 for the last six months (8.37%), 14th out of 41 for the last year (13.70%), and 28th out of 37 for the last three years (-29.55%) [3] Group 2 - The fund's maximum drawdown over the last three years was 46.17%, ranking 8th out of 37 comparable funds, with the largest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q1 2021 at 15.53% [11] - The fund maintained an average stock position of 91.65% over the last three years, compared to the industry average of 87.67%, reaching a peak of 93.73% at the end of Q1 2025 [14] - As of the end of Q2 2025, the fund's total assets amounted to 475 million yuan [16] Group 3 - The top ten holdings of the fund as of the end of Q2 2025 include Muyuan Food, Dongpeng Beverage, Wens Foodstuff Group, Haida Group, Salt Lake Industry, Xinyangfeng, Yili Group, Haitian Flavoring and Food, Shuanghui Development, and Anjixin Food [18] Group 4 - The fund management anticipates that support from export and consumption policies for the economy may weaken in Q3, but GDP is expected to remain above 5%. The macroeconomic environment is characterized by limited downside risks, with the A-share market expected to have some upward potential [2]