Group 1 - The pork concept sector declined by 0.54%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sectors, with major declines seen in companies like Jingji Zhino, Longda Meishi, and Aonong Biological [1] - Among the 11 stocks that rose, Tianyu Biological, Ronioushan, and New Hope saw increases of 1.49%, 1.27%, and 1.03% respectively [1] - The pork concept sector experienced a net outflow of 292 million yuan, with 21 stocks seeing net outflows, and 9 stocks with outflows exceeding 10 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The leading net outflow was from Muyuan Foods, with a net outflow of 208 million yuan, followed by Aonong Biological, Guangming Meat Industry, and Haida Group with net outflows of 31.48 million yuan, 17.91 million yuan, and 16.87 million yuan respectively [2] - The stocks with the highest net inflows included Wens Foodstuff, Jingji Zhino, and Dabeinong, with net inflows of 33.06 million yuan, 14.71 million yuan, and 12.52 million yuan respectively [2] - The pork concept sector's outflow list highlighted Muyuan Foods, Aonong Biological, Guangming Meat Industry, and Haida Group as the top four companies with significant outflows [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for several companies in the pig farming industry, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [2]. Core Insights - The pig price is experiencing a downward trend due to seasonal demand weakness and government policies aimed at reducing sow production capacity, which may support prices as consumption enters a peak season [1][6]. - The report highlights that the industry is in a capacity release phase, with significant increases in the number of pigs being marketed, while the sales of piglets are seasonally declining [1][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of cost advantages and strong performance capabilities of leading companies, recommending specific firms for investment [1][6]. Summary by Sections Pig Price Fluctuations and Production Capacity - Pig prices are on a downward trend, with the average price in August 2025 at 13.8 CNY/kg, down 32% year-on-year and 5.6% month-on-month [10]. - The average profit for self-bred pigs in August 2025 is reported at 36.8 CNY per head, a significant decline of 94% year-on-year and 64% month-on-month [14]. - The number of breeding sows decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a trend of capacity reduction in the industry [14]. Market Supply and Demand - In August 2025, 15 listed pig companies collectively marketed 15.21 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 23% [32]. - The sales of piglets decreased to 1.21 million heads, reflecting a seasonal decline [32]. - The average weight of marketed pigs fell to 121 kg, down 0.5% year-on-year and 1.3% month-on-month [48]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with clear cost advantages and strong performance, specifically recommending Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, while also suggesting to monitor other companies like Shennong Group and DeKang Agriculture [1][6]. - The report anticipates that the supply-side reforms in the pig farming industry may lead to improved cash flow for leading companies, enhancing their intrinsic value [1][6].

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 农林牧渔 证券研究报告 2025 年第 39 周周报：行业养殖进入亏损，重视生猪板块预期差！ 1、生猪板块：行业养殖进入亏损，重视生猪板块预期差！ 1）本周猪价加速下跌&外销仔猪亏损加大。截至 9 月 27 日，全国生猪均价 12.76 元/kg，较上 周末-1.39%（智农通），行业自繁自养亏损为 54 元/头；本周 7kg 仔猪价格为 236 元/头，头均 亏损约 54 元/头。供应端，本周出栏均重为 128.55kg（环比+0.10kg），近五年历史同期最高， 其中散户出栏均重 143.92kg（年内高位，已接近 24 年 12 月水平），需求端，周内多地气温下 降，其次价格持续走弱，屠企分割利润增加，再者前期国储交货时间临近；所以本周屠宰样本 日均宰杀量环比+1.80%。当前出栏均重仍处于历史同期高位，猪价继续承压运行，行业已进入 亏损状态，政策引导减产&供强需弱情况下，后续产能有望去化。2）重视生猪板块空间！重 视优秀企业的盈利能力！在 25 年猪价持续低位&政策引导情况下，后续产能有望去化。从 2025 年头均市值看，其中牧原股份 3300-4000 元/头，温氏股份、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The first "927 Chinese Native Chicken Festival" was launched by five leading poultry companies, aiming to promote Chinese native chicken as a cultural and culinary symbol, enhancing its market presence and consumer recognition [1][42]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event took place at the foot of the Great Wall in Beijing, featuring a unique "Chinese Native Chicken Great Wall Night Feast" that combined seasonal aesthetics with national banquet skills [2][39]. - The theme of the festival is "Cultural Empowerment of Industry," showcasing the evolution of Chinese native chicken from a mere ingredient to a cultural symbol [1][42]. Group 2: Culinary Highlights - Renowned chef Lin Shuwei designed a menu inspired by the 24 solar terms, featuring 24 chicken dishes that reflect seasonal flavors, using high-quality chicken breeds supplied by the participating companies [9][24]. - Each dish corresponds to a specific solar term, emphasizing the traditional Chinese wisdom of eating according to the seasons [24][40]. Group 3: Cultural Significance - The event included traditional cultural performances and rituals, enhancing the immersive experience for attendees, such as the lighting of lanterns and a "chicken dance" performance [32][35]. - The festival aims to elevate the status of Chinese native chicken from a food item to a cultural symbol, thereby increasing brand value and consumer acceptance [47][50]. Group 4: Industry Development - A forum on high-quality development of the Chinese native chicken industry addressed key challenges such as lack of branding and standards, proposing collaborative solutions among the leading companies [40][45]. - The release of the "Action Plan for High-Quality Development of the Chinese Native Chicken Industry" outlines goals for establishing standards, enhancing value, and promoting brand development [45][50]. Group 5: Economic Impact - The initiative is expected to positively impact rural revitalization by linking the chicken industry to the livelihoods of millions of farmers, fostering growth in breeding, processing, and logistics sectors [48][50].

禽类养殖： 随着天气逐渐转热，动物蛋白消费表现较为平淡，供给较多的背景下整体价格持续调整，目前板块景气度底部企稳。 近期价格持续偏弱的背景下，屠宰企业亏损日益增加，养殖户出栏积极性提升进一步对价格造成压力。近期黄羽鸡价 格出现较多调整，主要系下游需求偏弱导致，预计随着消费端的逐步好转，黄鸡价格有望跟随猪价回暖，行业可以取 得较好盈利。 牧业： 截至 9 月 19 日，我山东省活牛价格 27.24 元/公斤，环比-0.15%，同比+11.69%，目前逐步进入动物蛋白消费旺季， 短期受政策与天气扰动销售受阻，随着消费旺季到来牛肉价格有望稳步上涨；奶牛方面截至 9 月 19 日主产区合同内 平均收购价为 3.03 元/公斤，环比没有变化，同比-3.50%，散奶价格在备货旺季企稳回升，预计短期去化速度有所放 缓，但是在行业资金压力大&持续亏损的背景下，行业产能有望持续去化。我们预计随着供给端产能去化的逐步传导， 原奶价格在明年有望企稳回升。肉牛方面近期犊牛与活牛价格已经出现上涨，预计新一轮肉牛周期有望开启，板块景 气度有望稳健向上。 种植链： 投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.09.22-2025.09.26）农 ...

投资建议与投资标的 农业行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 肥猪、仔猪均进入亏损区间，关注去产能 演绎 ——东方证券农林牧渔行业周报（20250922-20250926） 核心观点 投资建议：（1）看好生猪养殖板块，优质公司持续盈利和分红率提升依然是推动板块长 期业绩和估值提升的核心驱动；近期政策与市场合力推动生猪养殖行业产能去化，助力 未来板块业绩长期提升，相关标的：牧原股份(002714，买入)、温氏股份(300498，买 入)、神农集团(605296，未评级)、巨星农牧(603477，未评级)等。（2）后周期板块，生 猪存栏量回升提振饲料、动保需求，若本轮生猪去产能顺畅，产业链利润有望逐步向下 游传导，驱动动保板块上行，相关标的：海大集团(002311，未评级)、瑞普生物 (300119，未评级)等。（3）种植链，当前粮价上行趋势已确立，种植&种业基本面向好， 大种植投资机会凸显，相关标的：苏垦农发(601952，未评级)、北大荒(600598，未评 级)、海南橡胶(601118，未评级)、隆平高科(000998，未评级)等。（4）宠物板块，宠食 行业正处于增量、提价逻辑持续落地的阶段，海外市场增量不断，国产 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The logic of breeding sow reduction is strengthening, and beef and milk are expected to achieve upward linkage in 2026. As of September 26, 2025, the average price of live pigs in China is 12.50 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.20 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 5.51% [11][16] - The investment logic for live pigs is marginally improving, driven by both fundamental and policy factors. The price of live pigs is expected to rise in the second half of 2025 due to strong support from previous breeding sow reductions and winter piglet losses [29][32] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The logic of breeding sow reduction is strengthening, and beef and milk are expected to achieve upward linkage in 2026. The average price of live pigs is 12.50 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.20 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 5.51% [11][16] - The average price of beef is 66.27 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 2.10% and a year-on-year increase of 7.74% [23] Weekly Market Performance (September 22-26) - The agricultural index underperformed the market by 2.18 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.21% and the agricultural index falling by 1.97% [34][36] - Leading stocks include ST Jinggu (+15.68%), Huaying Agriculture (+5.76%), and Biological Shares (+3.78%) [34][40] Price Tracking (September 22-26) - The average price of live pigs is 12.45 yuan/kg, down 1.81% from the previous week. The average price of piglets is 21.29 yuan/kg, down 4.87% [46] - The average price of beef is 65.90 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.30 yuan/kg [54] Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the pig sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture [20][29] - In the feed sector, recommended stocks include Haida Group and New Hope [29] - In the pet food sector, recommended stocks include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Shares, and Petty Shares [32]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing decline in pork prices, with the average price of live pigs at 12.64 CNY/kg, down 3.05% week-on-week, indicating a supply surplus in the market. However, upcoming festivals are expected to boost consumption and potentially stabilize prices [2][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of improving grain yield through advanced agricultural practices and technology, particularly in the context of food security and the promotion of genetically modified crops [1][12] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is focusing on enhancing grain yields through a comprehensive approach tailored to specific crops and regions. This includes promoting high-performance agricultural machinery and addressing storage issues in different regions [1][12] - Companies like Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development are expected to benefit from these initiatives, along with seed companies such as Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][12] Swine Farming - The current average price of live pigs is 12.64 CNY/kg, reflecting a significant decrease due to oversupply. A meeting was held to discuss reducing the breeding sow population by approximately 1 million to stabilize prices [2][13] - The report suggests that the swine industry will focus on quality improvement and efficiency, with a gradual elimination of outdated production capacity. Companies like Muyuan Foods and Wen's Foodstuffs are highlighted as key players to watch [2][5][13] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2360.47 CNY/ton, down 0.10% week-on-week [26] - Wheat: The average price is 2434.39 CNY/ton, up 0.23% week-on-week [29] - Soybeans: The average price is 4050.42 CNY/ton, up 0.17% week-on-week [38] - Cotton: The average price is 15090.00 CNY/ton, down 0.89% week-on-week [46] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.68 CNY/kg, with no change week-on-week. Vitamin E prices have decreased by 7.84% to 51.70 CNY/kg [52][63]

Core Viewpoint - The pig market is experiencing a downturn despite the traditional peak season, with prices dropping and concerns over overcapacity in the industry [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 26, the average price of external three yuan pigs in China was 12.71 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day, with half of the regions experiencing prices in the "5 yuan pig price zone" [1]. - The average price of pigs in the third week of September was 13.85 yuan/kg, and the average pork price was 24.51 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.8% decrease from the previous week [1]. - The cumulative output of listed pig companies from January to August 2025 reached 126 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 21.12% [6]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The current pig industry is in its sixth cycle, with the internal expansion phase nearing its end, leading to accelerated capacity reduction due to policy and losses [3][12]. - The Ministry of Agriculture plans to reduce the breeding sow stock by approximately 1 million heads to 39.5 million [8]. - By the end of July 2025, the breeding sow stock was at 40.42 million heads, which is 103.6% of the normal holding capacity, indicating a need for capacity regulation [5][9]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Price Trends - Consumer demand is expected to recover during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, potentially stabilizing prices [3]. - The market is witnessing a negative cycle where lower prices lead to panic selling among farmers, further driving prices down [7]. - The industry is shifting towards a more structured approach, with a focus on quality and differentiation rather than merely reducing capacity [12][13]. Group 4: Policy and Strategic Adjustments - The government is actively implementing measures to control pig production, including meetings with major pig companies to discuss production adjustments [8][9]. - Companies like Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods are reducing their breeding sow numbers and controlling the weight of pigs at slaughter [12]. - The industry is expected to evolve into a "30-30-40" structure, with 30% of large enterprises ensuring basic capacity, 30% focusing on niche markets, and 40% being flexible family farms [13].

Core Viewpoint - The swine market is experiencing a downturn despite the traditional peak season, with prices dropping significantly and concerns over overcapacity in the industry [1][7]. Price Trends - As of September 26, the average price of external three yuan pigs in China is 12.71 yuan/kg, with a notable decline in prices across various regions [1]. - The average price of pigs in the third week of September was reported at 13.85 yuan/kg, while pork averaged 24.51 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.8% [1]. Market Dynamics - Analysts indicate that the high inventory levels and pressure on enterprises to sell are contributing to the lack of a market bottom, despite government measures to regulate production capacity [3][5]. - The current swine industry is in its sixth cycle, with expectations that the effects of capacity reduction will become evident by the second half of 2026, potentially leading to price increases [5]. Supply and Demand Factors - The overall high inventory levels, coupled with insufficient consumer demand, have resulted in a "peak season not peaking" scenario for pig prices [7]. - By November 2024, the number of breeding sows is expected to reach a peak of 40.8 million, indicating a continued supply pressure [7]. Corporate Actions - Major companies are actively reducing their breeding sow numbers and controlling production to address overcapacity issues [16][17]. - For instance, companies like Wens Foodstuffs and New Hope are maintaining stable inventory levels and controlling the weight of pigs at the time of sale [17]. Market Sentiment - There is a shift in market sentiment, with some farmers exhibiting panic selling behavior, leading to a negative feedback loop where lower prices prompt quicker sales, further driving prices down [8]. - Despite the challenges, there is a consensus in the industry regarding the need for proactive capacity reduction and quality improvement [8]. Structural Changes - The industry is expected to evolve into a "three-three" structure, with 30% of leading enterprises ensuring basic capacity, 30% focusing on niche markets, and 40% consisting of medium-sized family farms leveraging flexibility [18].