Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 75.384 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.53%. The net profit reached 6.636 billion yuan, a significant increase of 244.58% year-on-year [4][6] - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in its breeding business, with projected revenues of 109.395 billion yuan, 121.337 billion yuan, and 128.693 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6][7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders, totaling approximately 999.5 million yuan [4] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company sold 21.5619 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 17.66%, generating sales revenue of 43.914 billion yuan, up 34.01% year-on-year [5] - The average selling price of pigs increased by 17.45% year-on-year, while chicken sales volume reached 871 million, a slight increase of 1.03% [5] - The company’s breeding costs have been well controlled, with the comprehensive cost of pig farming around 6.9-7 yuan per jin, and the asset-liability ratio decreased to 54.86%, down 6.55 percentage points from the end of the previous year [5][6] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for the company's earnings per share (EPS) is 1.55 yuan, 1.86 yuan, and 1.69 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6][7] - The company is expected to turn a profit in 2024, with a net profit forecast of 10.515 billion yuan, followed by 12.141 billion yuan in 2025, and a slight decrease to 10.557 billion yuan in 2026 [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ) [1][3]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant revenue growth, achieving a total operating income of 75.384 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 6.408 billion yuan, with a substantial turnaround from losses in the previous year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported a single-quarter revenue of 28.644 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, and a net profit of 5.081 billion yuan, marking the highest quarterly performance since its backdoor listing in 2015 [1]. - The growth in performance is attributed to rising pig prices and the company's continuous expansion in breeding scale, effective cost control, and improved management of breeding processes [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For the first nine months of 2024, Wens Foodstuff Group sold 21.5619 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 17.66%, generating sales revenue of 43.914 billion yuan, up 34.01% year-on-year. The breeding scale has steadily expanded, and the cost of breeding has been effectively controlled [1]. - The company’s comprehensive cost of pig breeding has decreased to below 13.8 yuan per kilogram, with a conservative estimate of 14.2 yuan per kilogram for Q3 [1]. Chicken Business Performance - The company sold 871 million meat chickens in the first nine months of 2024, a slight increase of 1.03%, with sales revenue of 24.463 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 2.56% due to minor fluctuations in chicken prices. However, the chicken breeding performance remains stable, with significant cost reduction and efficiency improvements [1]. Share Buyback and Dividend Distribution - Wens Foodstuff Group plans to repurchase shares using its own funds, with a total amount between 900 million to 1.8 billion yuan, and a maximum repurchase price of 27.01 yuan per share. This move reflects the company's confidence in its long-term development [2]. - The company has proposed a cash dividend distribution plan, intending to distribute 1.5 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders, totaling approximately 999.5 million yuan, which aims to enhance shareholder value and market confidence [2]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 109.078 billion yuan, 124.102 billion yuan, and 131.833 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.42 yuan, 1.87 yuan, and 1.72 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13.1, 10.0, and 10.8 times [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 75.419 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.56%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.408 billion yuan, up 241.47% [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 28.662 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 21.95%, and a net profit of 5.081 billion yuan, reflecting a staggering increase of 3097.03% [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 999.5 million yuan [1]. - The sales of live pigs reached 21.562 million heads in the first three quarters, an increase of 18% year-on-year, with an average selling price of 16.7 yuan/kg [1]. - The company sold 871 million live chickens in the first three quarters, a 1.0% increase year-on-year, with an average selling price of 13.0 yuan/kg [1]. - The company has initiated a share repurchase plan with a budget of 900 million to 1.8 billion yuan, demonstrating confidence in its long-term development [1]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 12.105 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 289.5% [2]. - The estimated P/E ratio for 2024 is 10.6x, with projected net profits of 14.864 billion yuan in 2025 and 9.462 billion yuan in 2026, indicating a decline of 36.3% in 2026 [2]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 89.902 billion yuan in 2023 to 104.631 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 16.4% [3]. - The net profit is forecasted to recover from a loss of 6.39 billion yuan in 2023 to a profit of 12.105 billion yuan in 2024 [3]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in the company's financial ratios, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 26.0% in 2024 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a projected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][14]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 75.419 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 6.408 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 241% [1]. - In Q3 alone, the company reported a revenue of 28.662 billion yuan, up 22% year-on-year and 15% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 5.081 billion yuan, reflecting a staggering year-on-year increase of 3097% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 98% [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares (tax included) [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Swine Segment - In Q3 2024, the company sold 7.19 million pigs, a 10% increase year-on-year, with an average price of 19.48 yuan/kg, up 19% quarter-on-quarter. The estimated total profit for the swine segment is around 4.6 billion yuan, with an average profit of over 600 yuan per pig [2]. - From Q1 to Q3 2024, the total sales volume was 21.56 million pigs, an 18% increase year-on-year, with an average price of 16.70 yuan/kg, an 11% increase year-on-year [2]. 2. Poultry Segment - In Q3 2024, the company sold 320 million chickens, a 5% increase year-on-year, with an average price of 13.14 yuan/kg, down 3% quarter-on-quarter. The estimated profit for the poultry segment is around 700 million yuan, with an average profit of 2.2 to 2.3 yuan per chicken [3]. - From Q1 to Q3 2024, the total sales volume was 870 million chickens, roughly flat compared to the same period last year, with an average price of 13.24 yuan/kg, down 3% year-on-year [3]. 3. Future Outlook - For the swine segment, both quantity and quality are expected to increase, with a projected rise in breeding stock by the end of September [4]. - The poultry segment is also expected to see continued growth in sales volume and cost improvements, with a planned increase in chicken output by 5% to 10% [4]. - The company's debt ratio has improved, decreasing to approximately 54.9% by the end of Q3, down 4.1 percentage points from the end of Q2 [4]. 4. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts a significant recovery in net profit, projecting 12.436 billion yuan for 2024, with corresponding EPS of 1.87 yuan per share [5]. - The estimated revenue for 2024 is 109.399 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 21.66% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][5]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable operations with significant profit realization in livestock farming, alongside a commitment to shareholder returns through active dividend distribution [4][5]. - The company reported a revenue of 75.42 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.41 billion yuan, up 241.5% year-on-year [4][5]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance in pig farming, with a sales volume of 21.56 million pigs, a 17.7% increase year-on-year, and a sales revenue of 43.91 billion yuan, up 34.0% year-on-year [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 28.66 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.08 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 3097% [4][5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 999.5 million yuan [4][5]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio improved to 54.9%, down 4.1 percentage points from the mid-year report [4][5]. Livestock Farming - In pig farming, the average selling price reached 19.5 yuan/kg, a year-on-year increase of 23.5% [4][5]. - The company has effectively controlled costs, with the comprehensive cost of pig farming dropping below 14 yuan/kg since July 2024 [4][5]. - The company expects to achieve a per-head profit of over 600 yuan in Q3 2024, contributing over 4.5 billion yuan to overall performance [4][5]. Chicken Farming - The company sold 871 million chickens in the first three quarters of 2024, a 1.0% increase year-on-year, with a sales price of 13.0 yuan/kg [5]. - The cost of chicken farming has decreased to below 12 yuan/kg, leading to a projected profit of over 2 yuan per chicken in Q3 2024 [5]. - Despite a relatively flat consumption environment, the company managed to maintain profitability through effective cost management [5]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued profitability in the pig and chicken sectors for the second half of 2024, supported by a cyclical recovery in pig prices and ongoing cost optimization [5]. - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 112.2 billion yuan, 116.7 billion yuan, and 129.1 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits projected at 10.27 billion yuan, 9.89 billion yuan, and 11.86 billion yuan [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 25.92 CNY based on a reasonable valuation level of 18 times the earnings for 2024 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 results that exceeded market expectations, with a revenue of 286.4 billion CNY in Q3 alone, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, and a net profit of 50.8 billion CNY, up 3097.0% [1]. - The high pork prices are expected to support profitability, with the average selling price of pork in September 2024 at 19.05 CNY per kilogram, and a projected increase in sales volume in Q4 [1]. - The company has initiated a share buyback plan, reflecting confidence in its long-term development and stock price [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 753.8 billion CNY, a 16.5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 64.1 billion CNY, up 241.5% [1]. - The cumulative sales volume of live pigs reached 21.56 million heads, achieving 65%-72% of the annual target of 30-33 million heads [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.95 billion CNY to shareholders [1]. Cost and Pricing Trends - The cost of pig farming has decreased, with the comprehensive breeding cost dropping below 6.9 CNY per kilogram [1]. - The company expects further cost reductions in Q4, primarily from piglet and feed costs [1]. - Chicken production remains stable, with a total sales volume of 870 million birds and a revenue of 24.463 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024 [1]. Profit Forecasts - The company has slightly adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2024-2025, predicting net profits of 96 billion CNY for 2024, 127 billion CNY for 2025, and 129 billion CNY for 2026 [2][5]. - The gross margin for 2024 has been slightly lowered due to trends in pork and chicken prices, while the margin for 2025 has been adjusted upwards [2][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 25.53 [1][4][7] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of RMB 75.4 billion in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 6.41 billion, marking a return to profitability [1][2] - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 28.6 billion, up 22% year-on-year and 15% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of RMB 5.08 billion, a significant increase of 3097% year-on-year and 98% quarter-on-quarter [1][2] - The strong Q3 performance is attributed to rising prices of pigs and chickens, alongside a decrease in costs for both, as well as increased volumes of both livestock [1][2] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company sold 21.56 million pigs in the first three quarters, an 18% increase year-on-year, with Q3 sales of 7.19 million pigs, up 9.9% year-on-year [2] - The average price for pigs in Q3 was RMB 19.5 per kg, a 24% increase year-on-year, while the cost of production was estimated at RMB 14.2 per kg, leading to a profit of over RMB 640 per pig [2] - The company sold 871 million chickens in the first three quarters, a 1% increase year-on-year, with Q3 sales of 323 million chickens, up 4.7% year-on-year [2] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 1.5 per 10 shares, totaling RMB 999.5 million, and has already distributed RMB 1.66 billion in dividends this year [3] - A share buyback plan of RMB 900 million to 1.8 billion has been announced, reflecting confidence in long-term growth [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company expects limited growth in pig supply in Q4 2024, with strong demand likely to support high prices [4] - The projected net profits for the company for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 10 billion, RMB 13.4 billion, and RMB 13.1 billion respectively, with corresponding book values per share of RMB 6.48, RMB 8.29, and RMB 10.16 [4][10] - The company is assigned a price-to-book ratio of 3.08 for 2025, leading to the target price of RMB 25.53 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][13]. Core Views - The company achieved a turnaround in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with a total revenue increase of 16.56% year-on-year to 75.419 billion yuan and a net profit of 6.408 billion yuan [1][5]. - In Q3 2024, revenue rose by 21.95% year-on-year to 28.661 billion yuan, with net profit soaring by 3097.03% to 5.081 billion yuan [1][5]. - The company sold 21.562 million pigs and 870 million chickens in the first three quarters of 2024, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 18% and 1% [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s breeding performance has improved, with a breeding rate of 87% and a market weight rate of 92% for pigs as of July 2024 [2]. - The average comprehensive cost of pig farming decreased to approximately 14.6 yuan/kg, aligning with the company's cost target [2]. - The company aims to achieve a pig output of 30-33 million heads in 2024, with 21.562 million heads sold in the first three quarters [2]. - The asset-liability ratio improved to 54.86% by the end of Q3 2024, down 4.09 percentage points from Q2 2024, with cash and cash equivalents of 3.679 billion yuan [2]. Profit Forecast and Financial Indicators - The company forecasts net profits of 7.587 billion yuan, 15.819 billion yuan, and 12.031 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 8, and 11 times [2][11]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 89.921 billion yuan in 2023 to 110.315 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 22.7% increase [3][11]. - The net profit is expected to recover from a loss of 6.390 billion yuan in 2023 to a profit of 7.587 billion yuan in 2024 [3][11].

投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 | --- | --- | |------------------------|------------| | 基本数据 | 2024-10-22 | | 收盘价 ( 元 ) | 19.16 | | 流通股本 ( 亿股 ) | 54.39 | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 5.78 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 66.54 | | 最近 12 月市场表现 | | -12% -4% 4% 12% 20% 28% 温氏股份 沪深300 分析师 肖珮菁 SAC 证书编号：S0160524070005 xiaopj@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《Q2 扭亏为盈，持续受益畜禽周期 景气》 2024-08-27 2. 《规模较快增长，生产经营稳健，Q1 减亏显著》 2024-04-29 3. 《经营稳健降本增量，猪鸡回暖 Q3 扭亏》 2023-10-26 温氏股份(300498) / 养殖业 / 公司点评 / 2024.10.23 猪鸡盈利高增，回购分红彰显发展信心 证券研究报告 ❖ 事件：公司 2024 前三季度营收+16.56%，归母净利润+241.47%。公司 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 26.73 CNY per share, indicating an expected strong performance relative to the market [3][4]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in performance for Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 75.42 billion CNY (up 16.6% year-on-year) and a net profit of 6.408 billion CNY (up 241.5% year-on-year), driven by rising livestock prices and decreasing breeding costs [1][2]. - The company sold 21.562 million pigs in the first three quarters, a 17.7% increase year-on-year, with a Q3 average selling price of 19.48 CNY/kg and estimated profit per pig of approximately 680-700 CNY [1]. - Chicken sales also saw a year-on-year increase of 4.7% in Q3, with an average selling price of 13.14 CNY/kg and estimated profit per chicken of 2.5-2.7 CNY [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 75.42 billion CNY and a net profit of 6.408 billion CNY, with a significant increase in profitability compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The company’s EPS for 2024 is projected to be 1.57 CNY, with expected growth rates of 263.4% for net profit in 2024 and 21.6% in 2025 [2][19]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio decreased to 54.86%, down 4.1 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating improved financial stability [1]. Sales and Production Insights - The company’s pig sales in Q3 reached 7.188 million heads, a 9.9% increase year-on-year, reflecting strong market demand [1]. - The company continues to optimize its breeding structure, with production biological assets valued at 4.849 billion CNY, showing a 1.2% increase from the previous quarter [1]. - The chicken production maintained high levels, with Q3 sales of 323 million birds, contributing to overall profitability [1].