Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a rebound in optical module CPO and related computing hardware, with significant gains in stocks like Guangku Technology and others, indicating a positive market sentiment in the sector [1][5] - The AI-focused ETF (159363) saw a rapid increase of 2% in early trading, with a real-time transaction amount exceeding 1 billion CNY and a net subscription of 28 million units, reflecting strong investor interest [1][5] - TrendForce forecasts that the global demand for optical transceiver modules exceeding 800G will reach 24 million units by 2025 and nearly 63 million units by 2026, representing a growth of 260% [1][6][7] Group 2 - Huatai Securities suggests that Chinese optical module companies may maintain a competitive edge by 2026, particularly in the North American market, as domestic manufacturers have gradually integrated into the supply chains of leading global cloud providers [3][7] - The demand for high-speed optical modules (400G, 800G, 1.6T) is expected to expand significantly, providing new opportunities for emerging suppliers in the context of increased AI computing investments [3][7] - The AI-focused ETF (159363) is noted as the first in the market tracking the AI index, with over 56% of its holdings in optical modules, and it has a recent scale exceeding 3.3 billion CNY, ranking first among similar ETFs [3][7]

Market Overview - As of December 15, the optical fiber concept sector declined by 2.22%, ranking among the top losers in the market, with major stocks like Yangtze Optical Fiber and Cable falling to their daily limit [1] - The sector saw a net outflow of 5.038 billion yuan from main funds, with 57 stocks experiencing outflows, and 18 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 100 million yuan [2] Key Stocks Performance - Major decliners in the optical fiber sector included ZTE Corporation, which saw a net outflow of 601.61 million yuan, and other significant losers such as Changxin Bochuang and Yongding Co., with outflows of 480.78 million yuan and 466.66 million yuan respectively [2][3] - Conversely, stocks like Zhongtian Technology, AVIC Optoelectronics, and Huamai Technology experienced net inflows of 109.12 million yuan, 69.52 million yuan, and 56.86 million yuan respectively [2][4] Notable Gainers - Among the few gainers in the optical fiber sector, Falunsheng, Shaanxi Huada, and Huamai Technology recorded increases of 10.05%, 6.88%, and 6.00% respectively [1][4]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model tracks the distance of stock prices or indices from their 250-day high to identify market trends and hotspots. It is based on the momentum and trend-following strategy, which has been proven effective in various studies[11][18]. - **Model Construction Process**: The 250-day new high distance is calculated as follows: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{\text{ts\_max}(Close, 250)} $ Where: - $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price - $ \text{ts\_max}(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0. If the price has fallen from the high, the distance is a positive value, indicating the degree of decline[11]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies stocks and indices that are leading the market, providing insights into market trends and potential investment opportunities[11][18]. 2. Model Name: Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on selecting stocks that exhibit stable momentum characteristics, avoiding extreme price jumps. It incorporates factors such as analyst attention, price stability, and trend continuation to identify stocks with strong and consistent performance[26][28]. - **Model Construction Process**: The selection process involves the following steps: 1. **Analyst Attention**: Stocks must have at least five "Buy" or "Overweight" ratings in the past three months. 2. **Relative Strength**: Stocks must rank in the top 20% of the market in terms of 250-day price performance. 3. **Price Stability**: Stocks are scored based on: - **Price Path Smoothness**: Measured by the ratio of price displacement to the total price path. - **Momentum Continuity**: The average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days. 4. **Trend Continuation**: The average 250-day new high distance over the past five days is calculated, and the top 50 stocks are selected based on these criteria[26][28]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model emphasizes stable momentum and avoids stocks with erratic price movements, making it suitable for identifying consistent performers[26][28]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 3.48% - Shenzhen Component Index: 3.40% - CSI 300: 3.52% - CSI 500: 5.02% - CSI 1000: 3.62% - CSI 2000: 2.46% - ChiNext Index: 3.91% - STAR 50 Index: 12.36%[12][13][33] 2. Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Selected Stocks**: 44 stocks were identified as stable new high performers, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Guangku Technology, and Yuanjie Technology. - **Sector Distribution**: - Cyclical and technology sectors had the highest number of selected stocks, with 16 stocks each. - Within the cyclical sector, the non-ferrous metals industry had the most stocks. - Within the technology sector, the electronics industry had the most stocks[29][34]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the relative position of a stock's or index's price compared to its 250-day high, serving as a momentum indicator[11]. - **Factor Construction Process**: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{\text{ts\_max}(Close, 250)} $ Where: - $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price - $ \text{ts\_max}(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is effective in identifying leading stocks and indices, providing a clear signal of market momentum[11][18]. 2. Factor Name: Price Path Smoothness - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates the stability of a stock's price movement over time, favoring stocks with smoother price paths[26]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the ratio of price displacement to the total price path over a specified period. - Higher scores indicate smoother price paths, which are preferred for stable momentum strategies[26]. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor helps avoid stocks with erratic price movements, improving the reliability of momentum-based strategies[26]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Factor - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 3.48% - Shenzhen Component Index: 3.40% - CSI 300: 3.52% - CSI 500: 5.02% - CSI 1000: 3.62% - CSI 2000: 2.46% - ChiNext Index: 3.91% - STAR 50 Index: 12.36%[12][13][33] 2. Price Path Smoothness Factor - **Selected Stocks**: 44 stocks were identified as stable new high performers, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Guangku Technology, and Yuanjie Technology. - **Sector Distribution**: - Cyclical and technology sectors had the highest number of selected stocks, with 16 stocks each. - Within the cyclical sector, the non-ferrous metals industry had the most stocks. - Within the technology sector, the electronics industry had the most stocks[29][34].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月12日 **Acknowledgement** **The authors thank the anonymous referee for the help and comments on the manuscript.** 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测：截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日，共 746 只股票在过去 20 个交易日间创出 250 日新高。其中创新高个股数量最多的 是基础化工、机械、电子行业，创新高个股数量占比最高的是有色金属、纺 织服装、农林牧渔行业。按照板块分布来看，本周制造、周期板块创新高股 票数量最多；按照指数分布来看，中证 2000、中证 1000、中证 500、沪深 300、创业板指、科创 50 指数中创新高个股数量占指数成份股个数比例分别 为：14.45%、13.10%、10.20%、12.33%、10.00%、0.00%。 平稳创新高股票跟踪：我们根据分析师关注度、股价相对强弱、趋势延续性、 股价路径平稳性、创新高持续性等角度，本周从全市场创新高股票中筛选出 了包含中际旭创、光库科技、源杰科技等 44 只平稳创新高的股票。按照板 块来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The optical communication industry is experiencing a surge in capital interest, driven by the demand for AI computing power, with companies like Guangku Technology planning significant financing and high-premium acquisitions to expand their market position [2][3]. Financing and Acquisition - Guangku Technology's recent shareholder meeting approved a financing plan to raise approximately 19.5 billion for acquiring 99.97% of Suzhou Anjie Xun Optoelectronics, with 16.4 billion allocated for the acquisition and the remainder for working capital and debt repayment [3][4]. - The acquisition of Anjie Xun is characterized by a high premium, with an assessed value of 16.5 billion against a book value of 2.26 billion, resulting in a valuation increase of 630.26% [4]. Financial Health and Risks - Despite previous fundraising efforts, Guangku Technology's debt levels and debt ratios are projected to rise significantly after 2024, raising concerns about financial sustainability [9][10]. - The company has a history of high-premium acquisitions, with a previous acquisition of 52% of Bai'an Industrial at a premium rate of 1192.56% [4][5]. - The goodwill on Guangku Technology's balance sheet is expected to increase significantly, from 1.1 billion at the end of 2023 to potentially over 14 billion post-acquisition, indicating a heavy reliance on major clients [8]. Industry Context - The optical communication sector is poised for growth, with the CPO market expected to reach 8.1 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 137% [13]. - Despite the industry's growth, Guangku Technology's previous fundraising projects have faced delays, with key projects now expected to be completed in 2026, raising questions about the effectiveness of its capital allocation [13].

Core Viewpoint - The capital heat in the optical communication industry is shifting from stock market exuberance to private placements and mergers and acquisitions, with companies like Guangku Technology planning significant financing for high-premium asset acquisitions amid rising AI computing demands [2][3][25]. Financing and Acquisition Details - Guangku Technology's recent shareholder meeting approved a financing plan to raise approximately 19.5 billion yuan through share issuance and convertible bonds, primarily to acquire 99.97% of Suzhou Anjie Xun Optoelectronics Technology Co., Ltd. [3][17] - The financing includes 6.56 billion yuan from share issuance, 4.92 billion yuan from convertible bonds, and 8 billion yuan in supporting funds, with 16.4 billion yuan allocated for the acquisition and 3.08 billion yuan for working capital and debt repayment [3][17]. Valuation and Premium Concerns - Anjie Xun's book value is reported at 226 million yuan, with an assessed value of 1.65 billion yuan, resulting in a valuation increase of 630.26% [4][17]. - This acquisition is not Guangku Technology's first high-premium purchase; a previous acquisition in January 2024 had a premium rate of 1192.56% [4][17]. Financial Health and Debt Issues - Despite multiple rounds of financing since 2020, Guangku Technology's interest-bearing debt and debt ratio are expected to rise significantly after 2024 [9][22]. - The company has faced delays in completing its fundraising projects, with all previous projects postponed, raising concerns about its financial management and operational efficiency [9][25]. Market Context and Future Outlook - The optical communication industry is experiencing growth driven by increasing AI data center demands and network bandwidth upgrades, with the CPO market projected to reach 8.1 billion USD by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 137% [25]. - The ongoing capital operations in the industry raise questions about whether they represent a strategic move to secure technological advantages or a potential overcapacity situation [25].

Group 1 - The CPO concept has become active again, with notable stock performance in the sector [1] - Fuxin Technology reached the daily limit increase, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Saiwei Electronics and Xinyisheng both hit historical highs during the trading session [1] Group 2 - Other companies such as Shijia Photon, Guangku Technology, Changfei Optical Fiber, and Tengjing Technology also showed significant gains [1]

Core Viewpoint - CPO (Chip-Package-Optical) technology is emerging as a key direction for high-speed optical modules, leveraging the advantages of "chip and optical engine co-packaging" to become a core area for next-generation optical communication devices [1] Company Highlights - **特发信息 (Tefa Information, 000070.SZ)**: Latest stock price at 14.85 CNY, with a daily increase of +10.00%. The subsidiary has CPO platform design capabilities and high-precision packaging technology applicable for CPO packaging [1] - **联特科技 (Liante Technology, 301205.SZ)**: Latest stock price at 143.60 CNY, with a daily increase of +7.24%. Focused on optical communication transceiver modules, mastering design and manufacturing capabilities from optical chips to optical modules [1] - **长芯博创 (Changxin Bochuang, 300548.SZ)**: Latest stock price at 143.82 CNY, with a daily increase of +7.09%. An integrated circuit electronic device company that has released external light source modules for CPO and is developing photonic technology-related products [1] - **德科立 (Dekeli, 688205.SH)**: Latest stock price at 172.90 CNY, with a daily increase of +4.78%. A light transmission company with R&D plans covering 800G and CPO high-speed miniaturized optical transceiver module technology solutions [1] - **华工科技 (Huagong Technology, 000988.SZ)**: Latest stock price at 83.20 CNY, with a daily increase of +3.53%. A photonics company with vertical integration capabilities, establishing a research institute to focus on CPO and LPO technologies [1] - **光迅科技 (Guangxun Technology, 002281.SZ)**: Latest stock price at 68.55 CNY, with a daily increase of +3.24%. A global supplier of photonic devices that has already laid out CPO technology and completed silicon photonic integration packaging technology development [1] - **新易盛 (Xinyi Sheng, 300502.SZ)**: Latest stock price at 432.26 CNY, with a daily increase of +3.13% [1] - **中天科技 (Zhongtian Technology, 600522.SH)**: Latest stock price at 17.22 CNY, with a daily increase of +2.99%. Advancing CPO co-packaging optical technology and has mastered high-speed optical module packaging capabilities [2] - **炬光科技 (Juguang Technology, 688167.SS)**: Latest stock price at 170.89 CNY, with a daily increase of +2.45%. Acquired SMO technology applicable for efficient collimation and coupling of laser light sources in CPO [2] - **源杰科技 (Yuanjie Technology, 688498.SH)**: Latest stock price at 691.66 CNY, with a daily increase of +2.39%. Has laser product reserves for CPO, with CW high-power laser technology applicable in the CPO field [2] - **光库科技 (Guangku Technology, 300620.SZ)**: Latest stock price at 172.58 CNY, with a daily increase of +2.20%. Launched high-density, high polarization-maintaining fiber array collimators for CPO applications [2] - **仕佳光子 (Shijia Photonics, 688313.SH)**: Latest stock price at 96.10 CNY, with a daily increase of +2.13%. Products like high-power laser chips can be used for CPO packaging [2] - **亨通光电 (Hengtong Optic-Electric, 600487.SH)**: Latest stock price at 20.75 CNY, with a daily increase of +1.72%. One of the earliest companies to layout CPO optoelectronic co-packaging, previously launched a 3.2T CPO working prototype [2] - **聚飞光电 (Jufei Optoelectronics, 300303.SZ)**: Latest stock price at 7.12 CNY, with a daily increase of +1.71%. The company's invested subsidiary has silicon optical chips applicable for CPO [2] - **中际旭创 (Zhongji Xuchuang, 300308.SZ)**: Latest stock price at 616.00 CNY, with a daily increase of +1.65%. A leading optical module company, with CPO as one of its key evolution directions, already has R&D and layout in place [3]

Core Viewpoint - The OCS (Optical Circuit Switch) industry chain concept stocks have shown significant strength, driven by advancements in technology and market expectations, particularly due to Google's seventh-generation TPU and Gemini 3 model, which are expected to enhance the market scale of OCS significantly [1][2][3]. Industry Overview - The OCS technology allows for direct optical signal switching without electro-optical conversion, improving network performance and efficiency in data centers [3][4]. - The market for OCS is projected to grow rapidly, with a forecasted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% from 2025 to 2030, and shipments expected to exceed 50,000 units by 2029 [2][3]. Company Insights - A-share listed companies in the OCS industry chain are expected to benefit from the growing demand, with key players already positioning themselves in the market [4][5]. - Companies like Ying Tang Zhi Kong are developing MEMS micro-mirrors, which are crucial for OCS technology, and have plans for acquisitions to enhance their product offerings [4][5]. - Tengjing Technology focuses on precision optical components and has established partnerships with major manufacturers in the optical communication sector [5][6]. - Guokai Technology and Guangxun Technology are also actively developing OCS products, with Guokai planning acquisitions to expand its capabilities [6][7]. Market Dynamics - The OCS market is characterized by various technological solutions, with MEMS being the most cost-effective option, and companies are expected to continue innovating to meet the demands of AI data centers [4][8]. - The future of OCS technology is anticipated to focus on higher performance, smarter adaptability, lower costs, and broader compatibility, with MEMS likely to maintain a dominant market position [8].

Group 1 - The Scale Up optical interconnection solution is approaching, with companies like Nvidia, Google, and Meta starting to introduce optical technology into cabinet scenarios from the second half of 2026 [1][17] - In the Scale Up scenario, the value of FAU, CW laser light sources, and MPO/MTP/MMC connectors is expected to increase [2][18] Group 2 - FAU (Fiber Array Unit) is a high-precision passive optical device that arranges multiple optical fibers at preset intervals using a V-shaped groove substrate, forming a dense optical signal transmission channel [3][19] - FAU is essential for connecting optical engines and optical fibers, serving as a critical component in optical modules and CPOs, offering advantages such as high precision (micron level), high density (e.g., 48 cores), low loss, and high reliability [4][20] Group 3 - The composition of FAU includes optical fibers (core carriers for transmitting optical signals), substrates (mechanical support), and V-shaped groove substrates (for precise fiber positioning) [5][21][23] - FAU is primarily embedded between the optical engine and optical fiber interface within optical modules, with distinct roles at the transmitting end (Tx) and receiving end (Rx) [8][24] Group 4 - D-FAU (Detachable Fiber Array Unit) introduces a detachable and replaceable mechanism, enhancing maintainability by separating the fiber array from the substrate support structure [9][10][25] - FCFAU (Multi-channel Fiber Coupling Array) is an optimized version of multi-channel FAU, utilizing optical coupling elements to achieve higher coupling efficiency, density, and thermal stability, mainly applied within CPO optical engines [11][12][27] Group 5 - The domestic supply landscape includes Tianfu Communication, a leading global manufacturer of high-speed optical devices that has invested in FCFAU development [13][30] - Guangku Technology focuses on fiber laser devices and optical communication devices, having acquired Anjie Xun and Jiahua Weijie to expand into FAU [14][31] - Zhishang Technology specializes in optical communication devices and consumer electronics, providing OEM and interface services for SENKO MPC (D-FAU) [15][32] - Juguang Technology specializes in laser components and optical elements, with micro-lens arrays applicable to D-FAU, PIC ends, and ELS modules [16][33]