如何看待本周科技板块反弹？ 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2025 年 11 月 30 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 相关报告 1、《重视科技资金动能增强的信号》 2025-11-29 2、《A H 股市场周度观察（11 月第 4 周）》2025-11-29 3、《12 月金股报告》2025-11-27 报告摘要 一、如何看待本周科技板块反弹？ 本周市场热点集中在 TMT 等科技板块，科技板块在超跌背景下迎来反弹，通信设备、 电子元件、游戏、消费电子等领涨两市。通信、电子、传媒行业周度涨幅分别达到 8.70%、6.05%、4.23%，均已收复上周跌幅，其中通信已强势接近 10 月底高点。 在申万二级行业中，通信设备、电子元件、游戏、消费电子尤其强势，周涨幅均在 5%以上。光模块 CPO、光芯片、光通信、光电路交换机 OCS、6G 等多个通信主题 指数涨幅超过 10%。光库科技、通宇通讯、特发信息等产业链个股单周涨超 30% ...

Group 1 - The article highlights that 39 stocks appeared on the weekly trading list, with 24 showing net purchases from the Shenzhen Stock Connect [1] - The top three stocks with the highest net purchases were Saiwei Electronics, BlueFocus Communication Group, and Guangku Technology, with net purchases of 355.30 million, 182.56 million, and 150.01 million respectively [1] - The Shenzhen Stock Connect net purchased stocks outperformed the market, with an average increase of 12.61%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40% [1] Group 2 - The stock with the largest increase was Saiwei Electronics, which saw a cumulative price increase of 44.85% during the week [1] - A total of 15 stocks experienced net sales, with the largest net sales recorded for Giant Network and Vision China, amounting to 287.51 million and 121.97 million respectively [2] - The trading volume for the stocks with net purchases was notably high, with Saiwei Electronics showing a turnover rate of 159.34% [1]

- The report introduces a quantitative model named "250-day new high distance" to track market trends and identify investment hotspots. The model is based on momentum and trend-following strategies, inspired by research from George (2004) and methodologies like CANSLIM and "Stock Wizard". The calculation formula is: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ where $\text{Close}_{t}$ represents the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price hits a new high, the distance equals 0; otherwise, it is a positive value indicating the degree of fallback from the peak price [11][19][23] - The report evaluates the model positively, emphasizing its ability to capture market trends and identify leading stocks in various industries and sectors. It highlights the effectiveness of momentum strategies and the importance of tracking stocks that consistently hit new highs [11][18][23] - The report provides backtesting results for the "250-day new high distance" model. As of November 28, 2025, major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, ChiNext Index, and STAR 50 Index have respective distances of 3.50%, 5.40%, 4.66%, 6.85%, 4.10%, 2.78%, 8.17%, and 13.77% from their 250-day highs [12][31][32] - The report introduces a factor-based stock selection methodology for identifying "stable new high stocks". The factors include analyst attention (at least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 3 months), relative stock strength (top 20% in 250-day returns), price path smoothness (measured by price displacement ratio), and trend sustainability (average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days and past 5 days). Stocks are ranked based on these criteria, and the top 50% are selected [23][26][27] - The report evaluates the factor-based methodology positively, citing research by Turan G Bali et al. (2011) and Da, Gurun et al. (2012) that demonstrate the superior performance of stocks with smooth price paths and strong momentum effects [23][26][27] - Backtesting results for the factor-based methodology show that 26 stocks were selected as "stable new high stocks" for the week ending November 28, 2025. These include stocks from sectors such as cyclical industries (e.g., non-ferrous metals), manufacturing (e.g., construction), and others. Examples include Zhongji Xuchuang, Guangku Technology, and Zhongkuang Resources [27][30][32]

- The report tracks the market trend by monitoring stocks that have reached new highs, using the 250-day high distance as a key metric[11] - The 250-day high distance is calculated as follows: $ 250 \text{ day high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ where $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price and $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11] - As of November 28, 2025, the 250-day high distances for major indices are: Shanghai Composite Index 3.50%, Shenzhen Component Index 5.40%, CSI 300 4.66%, CSI 500 6.85%, CSI 1000 4.10%, CSI 2000 2.78%, ChiNext Index 8.17%, and STAR 50 Index 13.77%[12][13] - The report identifies 1043 stocks that reached new 250-day highs in the past 20 trading days, with the highest numbers in the basic chemicals, power equipment and new energy, and machinery industries[19] - The report also tracks "stable new high stocks" based on analyst attention, relative stock strength, trend continuity, price path stability, and new high sustainability[23] - The selection criteria for stable new high stocks include: at least 5 buy or hold ratings in the past 3 months, top 20% in 250-day price change, and a composite score based on price path smoothness and new high continuity[26] - The report lists 26 stable new high stocks, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Guangku Technology, and Zhongkuang Resources, with the highest numbers in the cyclical and manufacturing sectors[27][30]

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 11月28日，光库科技在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，目前6G技术方案及行业标准尚 未完全明确，公司会积极关注相关技术发展趋势和市场应用。 ...

证券日报网讯 11月28日，光库科技在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司目前在海南没有子公司和 分公司。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Market Overview - The communication equipment sector experienced a decline of 0.27% on November 27, with Meilixin leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3875.26, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12875.19, down 0.25% [1] Top Performers - Tongyu Communication (002792) saw a significant increase of 10.03%, closing at 21.62 with a trading volume of 576,300 shares and a transaction value of 1.207 billion [1] - LianTe Technology (301205) rose by 9.98%, closing at 134.73 with a trading volume of 196,100 shares and a transaction value of 2.507 billion [1] - Other notable gainers include Taicheng Light (300570) up 7.51%, Guanghetong (300638) up 7.09%, and Cambridge Technology (603083) up 5.95% [1] Underperformers - Meilixin (301307) experienced a significant drop of 11.70%, closing at 35.86 with a trading volume of 257,600 shares and a transaction value of 963 million [2] - Shida Group (600734) fell by 9.92%, closing at 5.54 with a trading volume of 3,512,400 shares and a transaction value of 76.67 million [2] - Other notable decliners include Ruisi Kanda (603803) down 6.35% and Changxin Bochuang (300548) down 3.84% [2] Capital Flow - The communication equipment sector saw a net outflow of 2.31 billion from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 1.647 billion [2][3] - Notable net inflows from retail investors were observed in companies like Cambridge Technology and Guanghetong, while significant outflows were noted in Meilixin and Taicheng Light [3] Individual Stock Capital Flow - ZTE Corporation (000063) had a net inflow of 787 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 337 million [3] - Taicheng Light (300570) had a net inflow of 319 million from institutional investors, with retail investors experiencing a net outflow of 174 million [3] - Cambridge Technology (603083) recorded a net inflow of 238 million from institutional investors and a net inflow of 159 million from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is witnessing significant activity in Google-related industry chain stocks, driven by Google's challenge to Nvidia's dominance in the AI chip market through its TPU chip offerings [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Saiwei Electronics reached a historical high with a 20% limit up [1] - Xidi Micro increased by over 13% [1] - Zhihui Power and Taicheng Light both rose by over 9% [1] - Yintang Zhikong and Guangku Technology saw increases of over 7% [1] - Tengjing Technology grew by over 5% [1] - Dekeli experienced a rise of over 4% [1] Group 2: Market Developments - Google is leveraging its advancements in AI models to challenge Nvidia's chip market leadership [1] - The company has begun promoting its TPU chip deployment in its own data centers to major clients like Meta, aiming to expand beyond its Google Cloud rental business [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Google is challenging NVIDIA's dominance in the chip market by promoting its TPU chips to major clients like Meta, leveraging its advancements in AI models [1] - In the A-share market, stocks related to the Google supply chain are experiencing significant activity, with Saiwei Electronics hitting a historical high with a 20% increase, and other companies like Xidi Micro, Zhihui Power, and Taicheng Light also seeing substantial gains [1] - Google aims to expand its TPU chip deployment from its cloud rental business to a broader market, indicating a strategic shift in its approach to AI hardware [1]

Core Insights - The CPO concept stocks in the A-share market continue to be active, with significant price increases observed in several companies [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Taicheng Light (300570) saw a rise of 10.67%, with a total market capitalization of 25.1 billion and a year-to-date increase of 53.56% [2] - Cambridge Technology (603083) increased by 10%, with a market cap of 40.3 billion and a year-to-date rise of 183.09% [2] - New Yi Sheng (300502) rose by 8.44%, boasting a market cap of 356.9 billion and a year-to-date increase of 336.70% [2] - Huylu Ecology (001267) experienced a 5.52% increase, with a market cap of 15.3 billion and a year-to-date rise of 156.77% [2] - Woge Optoelectronics (603773) increased by 5.26%, with a market cap of 6.562 billion and a year-to-date rise of 15.69% [2] - Other notable performers include Jiepu Te (688025) up 4.33%, Tianfu Communication (300394) up 4.25%, and Lian Te Technology (301205) up 4.33% [2]