社会服务 社会服务 2026 年 03 月 22 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 社会服务 沪深300 相关研究报告 《中东局势或利好中国香港地产持续 复苏，多特倍斯 2 月仍保持高增—行 业周报》-2026.3.15 《中国香港房价及租金回暖，市场维 持美国年内两次降息预期—行业周 报》-2026.3.8 《体验与首店经济驱动高端商业体， 三丽鸥上修全年预期—行业周报》 -2026.3.1 | 初敏（分析师） | 李睿娴（分析师） | 程婧雅（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | chumin@kysec.cn | liruixian@kysec.cn | chengjingya@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522080008 | 证书编号：S0790525020004 | 证书编号：S0790525070010 | liruixian@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525020004 chengjingya@kysec.cn 证书编号：S07905 ...

社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2026 年 3 月 17 日 强于大市 社服与消费视角点评 1-2 月 国内宏观数据 社零增幅环比改善，看好全年消费增长 国家统计局等部门公布了部分 2026 年 1-2 月国内宏观数据。其中，1-2 月社 零总额同比增长 2.8%，较 25 年 12 月的 0.9%增速环比有所提升；1-2 月餐饮 收入同比增长 4.8%，增速表现好于商品零售额。1、2 月服务业 PMI 分别为 49.50%、49.70%。结合政府工作报告，服务消费领域有望持续迎来利好，我 们维持行业 强于大市 评级。 支撑评级的要点 投资建议 相关研究报告 《社会服务行业双周报》20260309 《社服视角学习 2026 年《政府工作报告》心得 体会》20260306 《2026 年春节旅游数据点评》20260226 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 26 年前两月消费数据表现稳步增长，服务消费规模持续扩大，消费信心 稳步修复。此外，政府工作报告从多领域提及促消费，后续增量政策值 得期待。我们建议关注有望受旅游出行消费需求复苏而实现业绩加速恢 复的旅游综合服务标的岭南控股、众信 ...

Group 1: Bond Investment Strategy - The report highlights a transition in bond investment strategy towards a "sell on every rise" approach, driven by asset allocation rebalancing and the current weak position of bond assets compared to equities [9][10] - The economic outlook for 2026 is characterized as a "non-typical recovery" period, with a focus on nominal growth recovery, fiscal spending structure, and inflation trends as key indicators for the bond market [9][10] - The report suggests that the 10-year government bond yield may range between 1.77% and 1.95%, with a potential upward breakout above 1.9% [9][10] Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Market Strategy - High dividend assets are expected to remain attractive in 2026, with historical performance indicating that sectors with dividend yields above 3% generally provide absolute returns during periods of RMB appreciation [12][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer sectors, particularly discretionary consumption, which tends to outperform during inflationary periods, suggesting investment opportunities in these areas [12][10] - The technology sector in Hong Kong is anticipated to benefit from RMB appreciation, with a focus on companies that possess unique ecological positions and infrastructure capabilities [12][10] Group 3: U.S. Stock Market Strategy - The U.S. stock market is projected to have limited valuation upside due to geopolitical uncertainties and a shift from light to heavy asset investments, with capital expenditures expected to broaden beyond technology giants [11][13] - The report notes that the S&P 500 index is expected to see stable earnings growth of around 16%, with current valuations at approximately the 70th percentile historically [11][13] - AI investments are highlighted as having potential in upstream and midstream sectors, with opportunities for alpha generation in the value chain [11][13] Group 4: Future Industries - The report discusses significant advancements in future industries, including quantum technology, biomanufacturing, and brain-machine interfaces, indicating a strong trend towards commercialization and technological breakthroughs [15][16] - The approval of the first invasive brain-machine interface for clinical use marks a significant milestone in the industry, reflecting increased investment and interest in this area [15][16] - The report outlines the importance of hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion, with China joining the "Triple Nuclear Declaration" to enhance global nuclear energy capacity by 2050 [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The global political and economic landscape is evolving, with the UN predicting a global economic growth rate of approximately 2.7% for 2026, slightly down from 2025, due to geopolitical risks and trade tensions [9] - China's GDP is expected to exceed 140 trillion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, indicating resilience and stability in the economy [9] - The talent market is undergoing profound adjustments, driven by technological innovation and the transformation of industries, leading to a demand for higher quality and more specialized talent [10] Summary by Sections Talent Market Trends - AI continues to drive industrial transformation, with a focus on multi-modal and application-specific talent becoming a competitive focal point [10] - The demand for AI talent is characterized by a need for deep technical skills, engineering capabilities, and an understanding of industry applications [11] - The report identifies five major trends in the talent market, including the rise of AI, the need for composite talents in traditional industries, the reshaping of consumer logic, the deepening of globalization, and the polarization of talent mobility [10][19][22] Specific Talent Demand and Salary Trends - AI-related positions such as multi-modal algorithm engineers and AI solution architects have significant salary ranges, with annual salaries ranging from 300,000 to 1,500,000 yuan [12][18] - In the healthcare sector, there is a growing demand for professionals with expertise in innovative drug development and clinical research, with specific roles like antibody engineering experts and clinical research directors being highlighted [14][43] - The report notes that the demand for talent in the clinical research sector is increasingly focused on candidates with complete project experience, particularly in oncology and other therapeutic areas [44][46] Industry-Specific Insights - In the biopharmaceutical industry, there is a critical need for talent capable of driving innovation and differentiation, particularly in areas like ADC and gene therapy [14][39] - The consumer electronics and automotive sectors are seeing a strong demand for product development roles, particularly as companies focus on enhancing technological competitiveness [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of local talent in global expansion efforts, particularly in manufacturing and high-end sectors, where understanding local markets is crucial [19][20]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: AI in Education and Human Resources AI in Education - The AI+ education market is projected to reach 200 billion RMB by 2027, driven by a strong demand from 200 million users in the K12 segment, shifting from a "teacher-centered" to a personalized "student-centered" approach [1][7] - The year 2026 is identified as a pivotal point for AI applications, transitioning from single-function models to integrated, multi-modal capabilities that enhance complex educational processes [2][3] Key Players and Their Strategies - **iFLYTEK**: - Established a comprehensive closed-loop system covering G/B/C ends, leveraging vast data and specialized models, leading to a dominant market share in high-end learning machines [1][5] - The company’s learning machine is the top seller in the high-end market, supported by continuous product iteration and technological advancements [6] - **Action Education**: - Revised its 2026 performance guidance to a 30% increase, with expected profits of 400 million RMB, reflecting a PE ratio of 15-16 times [1][8] - Launched the "Hundred Schools Plan" to expand organizational capabilities through AI, with a dividend yield of approximately 6% [1][8] - **Huatu Shanding**: - Increased R&D expenses by 160% in the first three quarters of 2025, focusing on AI products across ten major subjects [1][9] - **Core International**: - The "He Wa" platform addresses long-tail demands in the recruitment sector, with revenues expected to exceed 100 million USD in 2025 and double in 2026, projecting profits of 360 million RMB [1][13] AI Technology Evolution - The current AI model paradigm is evolving from auxiliary functions to capable of executing complex tasks, with significant advancements expected in 2026 due to improved multi-modal understanding and agent capabilities [2] - The introduction of models like OpenAI's O1 in 2024 is seen as a foundational shift, enabling AI to plan and execute tasks more like humans [2] Market Dynamics and Growth Potential - The education sector is characterized by high complexity and reliance on human-driven processes, making it ripe for AI integration [3] - The human resources digital market is projected to grow from over 30 billion RMB in 2024 to 48.4 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 17% [11] AI Applications in Education - AI applications have made strides in various educational segments, including: - Virtual teachers for subjects like Chinese and English [4] - Learning aids such as study machines [4] - Research models deployed in universities for literature reviews and data searches [4] - Automated essay grading and expansion into sports and math assessments [4] Investment Insights - The commercial growth of AI in education is underpinned by a stable user base and a strong willingness to pay among families, providing a solid foundation for AI applications [7] - Companies like Core International and Action Education are positioned well for growth, with low valuation multiples and significant market opportunities [1][13]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the consumption and modern service sectors, which are expected to outperform the overall market [1]. Core Insights - The government work report from the Two Sessions on March 5, 2026, sets an economic growth target of 4.5%-5.5% and introduces a systematic policy mix to boost domestic demand and improve livelihoods, including significant financial support for consumption and service sectors [1]. - The focus is on enhancing service quality in tourism, accommodation, and dining, while also promoting urbanization to drive the development of lifestyle services [1]. - The report emphasizes the dual empowerment of policies and capital markets, with the introduction of more inclusive listing standards on the ChiNext board to support new consumption and modern service enterprises [1]. Summary by Sections Policy Direction - The report highlights that the policy direction for 2026 will prioritize the expansion and quality enhancement of the cultural tourism and modern service industries, with a notable increase in policy support [2]. - It aims to release the potential of service consumption, focusing on areas such as leisure tourism, sports events, healthcare, and the silver economy, while also addressing maternity and childcare services [2]. Demand and Supply Side - On the demand side, the report outlines measures such as a CNY 250 billion special bond to support the replacement of automobiles and home appliances, and a CNY 100 billion special fund to enhance consumer credit and service financing [2]. - On the supply side, it emphasizes the need for high-quality service supply and market environment optimization, including the establishment of national standards and the promotion of "China Service" brands [2]. Capital Market Support - The report indicates that the capital market will play a crucial role in empowering consumption services, with the ChiNext board reform aimed at facilitating financing for quality innovative enterprises in the service sector [2]. - This dual approach of policy and capital support is expected to drive the expansion and quality improvement of the consumption and service industries [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests specific investment opportunities in various sectors, including: - Cultural tourism: Sanxia Tourism, Santai Cableway, Songcheng Performance, Jiuhua Tourism, Lijiang Co [2]. - Hotel accommodation: Huazhu, Atour, Shoulv Hotel, Junting Hotel [2]. - AI and human resources services: Core International, Beijing Human Resources, Liepin [2]. - Tourism retail and sports industry: China Duty Free, Zhuhai Duty Free Group, Lansheng Co, Lisheng Sports [2]. - Maternity and infant consumption: Shengbeila, Kidswant [2].

科锐国际 20260303 摘要 2025 年灵活用工在职约 5.2 万人（净增 8,200 人），收入增速 >30%；IT 与工业研发岗占比超 35%，高价值岗位周转率提升驱动盈利 修复。 2026 年 Q1-Q2 经营节奏顺利，猎头业务增速约 30%，RPO 保持稳健； 河蛙平台与内部 CC 业务显示市场 offer 量与均价持续走高，行业复苏加 速。 海外业务表现强劲，2025 年 RPO 毛利增速超 300%；2026 年将聚焦 南美、东亚等新市场，通过伴随中企出海策略推动利润持续正增长。 河蛙平台 2026 年目标收入 1 亿元（亏损约 3,000 万），2027 年目标 2-2.6 亿元并实现盈亏平衡；AI 重构使下半年单月 offer 金额稳定在 1,600-1,800 万。 AI 智能体 MIRA 2.0 将于 2026 年面向开放网络发布，优先在海外商用； 公司计划在 2026 年底或 2027 年实现 AI 业务财务独立核算。 AI 对行业影响呈"高端辅助、低端替代"格局，预计 5 年内优先替代简 单岗位；公司定位正由传统人力资源服务商向 AI 信息技术服务商转型。 Q&A 2025 年灵 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the consumer services industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [44][46]. Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival saw record-high travel and consumption data, with inter-regional mobility reaching 2.808 billion people, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%. Daily income in consumption-related industries grew by 13.7% compared to the previous year [4][36]. - The tourism sector experienced unprecedented interest, with an average of 1.977 million people entering and exiting the country daily during the Spring Festival, marking a 10.1% increase year-on-year. Macau's daily inbound visitor count reached 173,000, surpassing pre-pandemic levels [4][37]. - Hotel occupancy rates and revenue indicators showed steady recovery, with Huazhu Group reporting a 20% increase in total guests and a peak occupancy rate of 91% during the holiday [4][39]. - The restaurant sector demonstrated growth, with daily sales for monitored retail and restaurant enterprises increasing by 5.7% year-on-year. Notably, Haidilao served over 14 million customers during the holiday period [4][36]. Industry Performance - The consumer services sector's weekly performance was a gain of 1.68%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.08%. The overall A-share market saw a gain of 2.73% [7][25]. - The hotel and restaurant sectors showed significant gains, with hotel stocks rising by 3.66% and restaurant stocks by 3.87% during the week [12][18]. - The report highlights the strong performance of specific companies, such as Luckin Coffee and Trip.com, which saw notable increases in their stock prices [4][31]. Important Announcements - Green Tea Group expects a profit of approximately 460 million to 508 million RMB for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.4% to 45.1% [31]. - Ctrip anticipates a revenue of 62.4 billion RMB for 2025, with a net profit of 33.3 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 17% and 95%, respectively [31]. - Excellent Education Group projects a revenue of 1.8 billion to 2.0 billion RMB for 2025, with a net profit of 260 million to 340 million RMB, indicating a growth of approximately 63.3% to 81.5% [31].

Summary of Conference Call for Company and Industry Analysis Company Overview - **Company**: 科锐国际 (Kerry International) - **Industry**: Flexible Employment and AI Applications Key Points Business Growth and Revenue - All business lines are expected to achieve growth in 2026, with flexible employment being the main revenue source, focusing on high-end clients and new customer expansion to alleviate market concerns about growth [2][3] - The target for 河蛙 (He Wa) in 2026 is to double revenue from 2025 and achieve breakeven, with significant growth in various metrics [2][4] - The flexible employment business is projected to grow nearly 30% in revenue for 2025, with an emphasis on profitability and structural optimization [2][7] Financial Performance - The flexible employment segment is expected to maintain a high growth rate, with revenue and gross margin increasing simultaneously, validating the effectiveness of focusing on high-end clients and new customer expansion [3][4] - The company aims for a group revenue growth target of 20%-30% in 2026, with the flexible employment segment accounting for over 90% of total revenue [3][20] AI Development - The AI application has a 1.0 version ready for internal demonstration, with plans to upgrade to a 2.0 version that will be available for external use [2][4] - The AI application is designed to enhance efficiency in recruitment and other HR processes, although it currently does not contribute directly to revenue [6][14] - The company is positioning itself as a provider of AI services rather than a passive participant in the industry changes brought by AI [12][14] Employment Trends - The flexible employment penetration rate in China is still low compared to Western countries, indicating significant growth potential [12] - The company is not overly concerned about the impact of AI on programming jobs, as it believes that while some jobs may be replaced, new opportunities will also arise [12][13] Operational Focus - The company is prioritizing profitability and structural optimization over mere headcount growth, reflecting a shift in focus due to market changes and the impact of AI on job structures [11][12] - The flexible employment business is focusing on increasing the proportion of high-income individuals to improve gross margins, with a target of expanding the base of individuals earning over 3,000 yuan [7][8] Segment Performance - The猎头 (Headhunting) business is expected to maintain stable revenue around 1 billion yuan per quarter, with a gross margin of approximately 30% [16] - The overseas business is projected to continue its growth trajectory, although specific targets for 2026 have not been set [17][18] Market Outlook - The employment market is expected to remain stable, with no significant changes in job supply compared to 2025, indicating a positive outlook for 2026 [19] - The company is confident in achieving its performance targets across various business lines, with each segment showing potential for growth [19] Conclusion - The company is strategically positioned to leverage AI advancements while focusing on high-end flexible employment solutions, aiming for sustainable growth and profitability in a changing market landscape [14][20]

Financial Performance - In 2025, the company reported total assets of 453,340.58 million RMB, representing a growth of 12.64% compared to the beginning of the period, primarily due to the increase in operational scale [5] - The equity attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 226,382.33 million RMB, an increase of 14.79% from the beginning of the period, mainly driven by the growth in net profit attributable to the parent company [5] Business Operations - The company has developed a comprehensive talent supply chain solution driven by digital technology, which includes high-end talent search, recruitment process outsourcing, job outsourcing, independent consulting, and human resources consulting [4] - The domestic market is experiencing an upgrade in talent structure, with increasing demand for digital transformation and international expansion, which the company is capitalizing on by integrating global resources and enhancing its human resources ecosystem [3][4] - The overseas business is gradually improving, with revenue and profit contributions from international operations and local businesses increasing as market conditions recover [4] Economic Context - The report highlights that China's economy is moving towards high-quality development, with technological and industrial innovation becoming core drivers, enhancing the resilience of global supply chains and the country's strategic advantages in the global value chain [3]