证券研究报告 | 2025年11月02日 美股市场速览 弱于大市 走势与业绩均有较大分化 价格走势：大盘成长独力带动市场上行 本周，标普 500 涨 0.7%，纳斯达克涨 2.2%。 风格方面：大盘成长（罗素 1000 成长+1.8%）＞小盘成长（罗素 2000 成长 -0.4%）＞大盘价值（罗素 1000 价值-0.9%）＞小盘价值（罗素 2000 价值 -2.4%）。 9 个行业上涨，14 个行业下跌，1 个基本持平。上涨的主要有：半导体产品 与设备（+6.2%）、零售业（+5.5%）、汽车与汽车零部件（+4.4%）、技术 硬件与设备（+2.9%）、运输（+2.6%）；下跌的主要有：耐用消费品与服装 （-5.7%）、商业和专业服务（-5.5%）、食品饮料与烟草（-4.6%）、消费 者服务（-3.9%）、房地产（-3.8%）。 资金流向：整体流出，行业分化较大 本周，标普 500 成分股估算资金流（涨跌额 x 成交量）为-40.5（亿美元， 下同），上周为+65.6，近 4 周为+76.3，近 13 周为+692.1。 8 个行业资金流入，16 个行业资金流出。资金流入的主要有：半导体产品与 设备（+77. ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Optimism from trade negotiations and a significant rise in Amazon's stock price contributed to a strong performance of major U.S. indices, marking a robust end to October for Wall Street [1] - The market remains cautious regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, which may suppress risk appetite in the upcoming week [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell from a revised 95.6 in September to 94.6, the lowest level since April [2] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model maintains a fourth-quarter GDP growth forecast of 3.9% [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - The recent FOMC meeting indicated a hawkish stance, with some members opposing further rate cuts, reflecting strong divisions among committee members [2][3] - The market's expectations for potential rate cuts in 2025 have been adjusted downwards, with the probability of a rate cut dropping from 95% to around 60% [3] Group 4: Stock Performance - The "Magnificent 7" tech companies had mixed earnings reports, with Amazon's stock rising by 8.9% and Meta's stock dropping over 12% due to AI-related capital expenditure plans [5] - Berkshire Hathaway's latest earnings report showed a cautious market outlook, with cash reserves reaching a record $381.7 billion [5] Group 5: Market Volatility - The VIX index has risen for five consecutive days, indicating increased demand for hedging against risks through put options on the S&P 500 [6] - The upcoming week will continue to see earnings reports, with a focus on the sustainability of capital expenditures in the AI sector [6]

Tech Sector - Apple (AAPL) reported a fiscal fourth-quarter earnings beat with a revenue of $102.466 billion, up 7.9% year-over-year, and diluted earnings per share of $1.85, while forecasting double-digit iPhone revenue growth for the December quarter despite a 3.6% decline in sales in Greater China [3] - Nvidia (NVDA) is experiencing a shift in revenue distribution, with U.S. sales now accounting for about half of its total revenue, as the company excludes China revenue from its Q3 guidance due to U.S. export restrictions [4] Automotive Sector - Volkswagen (VWAGY) faced a challenging third quarter in 2025, reporting a net loss of €1.1 billion, a 31% drop from the previous year's profit, with operating profit plunging to a loss of €1.3 billion due to nearly $1 billion in tariffs and charges related to Porsche's product strategy [5] - Several South Korean firms have paused or pulled back on U.S. investments following an immigration raid at a Hyundai Motor Group plant in Georgia, raising concerns about the predictability of the U.S. market [6] Gold Market - Global gold demand reached a record 1,313 metric tons in Q3 2025, driven by a 17% year-over-year increase in bar and coin purchases and a 134% year-over-year rise in ETF inflows, with total demand value hitting $146 billion [7][8] - The tokenized-gold market, currently valued at $3.7 billion, is gaining institutional interest as it integrates physical bullion into the digital economy, reflecting a broader shift towards real-world assets on-chain [9] U.S. Economic Landscape - The U.S. economy shows mixed signals, with positive job creation and income growth reported by White House Senior Adviser Kevin Hassett, contrasting with the financial struggles of over 750,000 federal workers who have missed two paychecks due to a government shutdown [10]

TikTok东南亚用户超过4.6亿；电竞奥运会暂停举办，沙特"单飞" 闻泰科技高层变动 闻泰科技10月30日公告称，聘任上市公司副总裁职务、安世半导体CEO办公室首席事务官沈新佳为公司 总裁。本次职务变更后，沈新佳不再担任公司副总裁职务。资料显示，沈新佳有15年以上外企及上市公 司法律顾问经验。此前闻泰科技子公司安世半导体被荷兰政府实施全球运营冻结，张学政被暂停在安世 半导体控股的非执行董事和安世半导体的执行董事职务等，人事层面出现失控。 点评:闻泰科技子公司安世半导体人事层面失控，此前安世中国团队的账号还曾被封，闻泰科技需要在 法律层面寻求应对方法。此前沈新佳表示，荷兰政府及相关高管的最终目标可能是让安世脱离闻泰控制 权，但他们的目的不会得逞，闻泰科技已聘请知名国际行政法和诉讼律师，将对荷兰政府的行政令在法 律适用和程序上提起行政复议和诉讼。 TikTok东南亚用户超过4.6亿 10月30日，短视频平台TikTok宣布，平台东南亚用户数已超过4.6亿。其中，印度尼西亚用户最多，超 过1.6亿。越南、泰国分别为7000万和5000万。其余用户分布在东南亚其他地区。目前TikTok平台被该 地区游戏、金融、零售 ...

【造车新势力 10 月"成绩单"一览】 小鹏汽车： 10 月交付新车 42013 台，单月交付量创下历史新 高，并连续 2 个月超过 4 万台。 2025 年 1-10 月，小鹏汽车累计交付 355209 台，同比增长 190% 。 蔚来： 10 月交付新车 40397 台，同比增长 92.6% ；今年迄今交付 241618 辆汽车，同比增长 41.9% 。 乐道品牌 10 月交付新车 17342 台，同比增长 301.5% ，环比增长 13.7% ，再创历史新高。 完整早报音频，请点击标题下方小耳机收听 理想汽车： 10 月交付 31767 辆汽车；截至 2025 年 10 月 31 日，累计交付量达 1462788 辆。 小米汽车： 10 月交付量持续超过 40000 台。 零跑汽车： 10 月全系交付达 70289 台，同比增长超 84% 。 极氪： 10 月交付 61636 辆汽车，同比增长 9.8% 。 北汽新能源： 10 月销量 30542 台，极狐 10 月销量突破 23000 台，同比增加 110% 。 岚图汽车： 10 月交付 17218 辆， 1-10 月累计同比增长 82% 。 阿维塔： ...

Apple’s new earbuds can translate languages in real time. But what do we lose when nothing gets lost in translation? https://t.co/YMDh8qaWEN ...

Core Insights - The divergence in performance among tech giants highlights a dual market sentiment towards AI investments: enthusiasm for tangible results and anxiety over substantial expenditures without visible returns [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The U.S. stock market, led by tech stocks, has seen a significant rebound, with the S&P 500 index rising nearly 40% over six consecutive months, marking one of the fastest recoveries in history [3]. - Amazon's stock surged nearly 11% after reporting a 20% increase in cloud computing revenue for Q3, reaching a historic market capitalization high [3]. - Meta's stock plummeted over 11% due to concerns over increased capital expenditures for AI and data centers, marking its largest single-day drop in nearly three years [1][4]. Group 2: Individual Company Performance - Apple reported a 7.94% year-over-year revenue growth and an 86.39% increase in net profit for Q4, with expectations of double-digit sales growth in Q1 [3]. - Other tech giants showed mixed results: Microsoft fell 2.92%, Nvidia dropped 2%, while Tesla rose 3.74% following a target price upgrade from Morgan Stanley [5]. Group 3: Global Market Trends - European markets experienced declines, with the UK FTSE down 0.44% and Germany's DAX down 0.67%, influenced by geopolitical tensions and political uncertainties in France [8]. - In contrast, Chinese concept stocks performed strongly, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 0.36%, driven by improved U.S.-China trade relations and positive corporate earnings [9][11]. Group 4: Policy and Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and uncertainty regarding future cuts have provided some market support, with the probability of further cuts decreasing from 95% to 72.8% [6]. - In China, the market is supported by regulatory reforms and positive signals from U.S.-China relations, with the A-share market showing resilience despite recent adjustments [15].

Market Overview - The stock market experienced volatility due to third-quarter earnings reports, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and developments in the China-U.S. trade war, yet all three major indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow) ended the week positively [1] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter-point for the second time this year, with Chairman Jerome Powell emphasizing a commitment to reducing inflation to 2% [1] - The S&P 500 increased by 2.3% and the Nasdaq advanced by 4.7% in October, while the Dow achieved its sixth consecutive month of gains with a return of 2.5% [1] Corporate Earnings - Nvidia became the first U.S. company to surpass a $5 trillion market capitalization, driven by strength in generative AI and partnerships with Nokia and T-Mobile [1] - Apple reached a $4 trillion market capitalization, supported by strong demand for the iPhone 17 and positive analyst ratings [1] - Microsoft reported decent quarterly earnings but faced pressure due to high expectations and increased AI spending, leading to an upgrade in stock rating to a buy-equivalent 1 [1] - Meta Platforms' stock declined by 10% after raising its expense outlook and reporting a significant tax charge, which was viewed as a buying opportunity [1] - Eli Lilly's earnings report led to a price target increase from $800 to $925 due to strong revenue and earnings performance [1] - Amazon's cloud computing unit reported impressive results, prompting an increase in the price target from $250 to $275 while maintaining a buy-equivalent 1 rating [2] Trade Developments - The U.S. and China reached a one-year trade agreement, reducing fentanyl-linked tariffs on China from 20% to 10%, lowering overall levies on Chinese goods to approximately 47% [1] - China agreed to a one-year pause on rare earth export controls, which had been announced earlier in October [1] Company Specific Developments - Corning reported better-than-expected earnings but saw a decline in stock price as investors took profits; the company is viewed positively due to its AI-related products [1] - Boeing faced a mixed quarter with a $9 billion charge-off, leading to a stock decline [1] - Honeywell's Advanced Material business split and began trading under the ticker "SOLS," with shares rising by 6% on the first trading day [2] - DuPont's electronics business, Qnity, is set to begin trading on the S&P 500 [2]

Core Insights - Berkshire Hathaway Inc. reported a significant increase in operating earnings, rising 34% in the third quarter, driven by a substantial surge in insurance profits [1][2]. Financial Performance - Operating earnings for the latest quarter reached $13.49 billion, reflecting a 33.6% increase [2]. - Insurance-underwriting profit saw a remarkable 216% increase, amounting to $2.369 billion, compared to $750 million in the same quarter last year [3]. - Insurance-investment income decreased by 13.18% to $3.181 billion [3]. - Net earnings attributable to Berkshire shareholders totaled $30.796 billion, up from $26.251 billion a year ago [4]. - As of September 30, 2025, Berkshire's shareholders' equity was $698.2 billion, an increase of $48.8 billion since December 31, 2024 [4]. Insurance Float and Cash Holdings - The insurance float was approximately $176 billion, an increase of $5 billion since year-end 2024 [4]. - The company held $354.3 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and U.S. Treasury bills, net of unsettled purchase payables, while investments in equity and fixed-maturity securities totaled $301.2 billion [8]. Equity Portfolio Concentration - Berkshire's equity portfolio remained heavily concentrated, with five companies accounting for 66% of total equity holdings at the end of the third quarter, down from 71% as of December 2024 [5]. Strategic Moves - Berkshire Hathaway announced the acquisition of Occidental Petroleum Corporation's chemicals business for $9.7 billion, marking its largest move since the $11.6 billion purchase of insurer Alleghany in 2022 [6][7]. - The acquisition is subject to regulatory approvals and expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025 [7]. Leadership Transition - Warren Buffett, at 95 years old, is set to hand off the CEO role to Greg Abel at year-end, while remaining as chair [6].

Macro Dynamics - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a tax policy regarding gold transactions, exempting value-added tax for members or clients trading standard gold through the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange, effective from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027 [2] - A nationwide 1% population sampling survey has commenced, targeting approximately 5 million households and 14 million individuals to gather data on demographics, employment, migration, marriage, fertility, and housing conditions [3] Energy Sector - In September 2025, 7,218 new renewable energy projects were registered, including 32 wind power projects and 7,184 solar power projects, with a significant focus on distributed solar energy [6] - The completion of China's thorium-based molten salt experimental reactor in Gansu represents a significant advancement in nuclear energy technology, aiming to reduce reliance on imported uranium and enhance energy security [7] Financial Institutions - Zhejiang Wangshang Bank reported a total asset scale of 521.46 billion yuan as of the end of September 2025, marking a 10.7% increase from the beginning of the year, with a slight decrease in operating income but a 30.2% increase in net profit [9] Market Data - On October 31, U.S. stock indices collectively rose, with the Nasdaq up 0.61%, marking a 2.24% increase for the week and a 4.7% increase for October [11] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 0.53% on October 31, ending a five-month decline [12] Company Dynamics - Novo Nordisk's CEO announced that the company is nearing completion of its plan to lay off 9,000 employees as part of a global restructuring effort [14] - Meituan's flash sale reported significant sales growth on the first day of its Double 11 promotion, with nearly 800 brands seeing sales double compared to the previous year [15] - A land dispute involving Hainan Natural Rubber Industry Group's subsidiary has been reported, with local authorities intervening to maintain order following a conflict over land rights [16]