行业研究丨深度报告丨电子元件 [Table_Title] 液态金属行业五问五答 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 苹果作为全球消费电子硬件创新的引领者，其自身的高端机存量用户 10 亿以上，安卓品牌在 前几年已经给消费者完成折叠屏市场教育阶段，大量 IOS 用户期待苹果的折叠屏手机问世，我 们预期其首代产品将大卖，若后续采用液态金属转轴也会对当下安卓品牌形成很好的示范作 用，液态金属行业或将迎来新一轮高成长。针对市场普遍关注的几个问题，本篇报告以五问五 答的形式行文论述。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 杨洋 蔡少东 SAC：S0490517070012 SAC：S0490522090001 SFC：BUW100 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 液态金属，即非晶合金，是指与通常情况下金属材料的原子排列呈现的周期性和对称性所不同 的非结晶状态的金属，其内部原子排列为短程有序、长程无序的玻璃态结构，因此又被称为"金 属玻璃"。 产业液态金属应用场景 %% %% %% %% research.955 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cost of parts for iPhones is expected to rise due to increased demand from AI companies [1] Group 1: Industry Impact - The surge in demand from AI companies is driving up the prices of components used in iPhones [1] - This trend may lead to higher production costs for smartphone manufacturers, potentially affecting pricing strategies [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The increased demand from the AI sector is creating a competitive environment for sourcing electronic components [1] - Companies may need to adapt their supply chain strategies to accommodate the rising costs and ensure availability of parts [1]

Core Viewpoint - Peloton's stock price has plummeted 97% from its peak during the COVID-19 pandemic due to significantly weaker demand for its products [1] Company Overview - Peloton's current market cap is approximately $2.3 billion, with shares trading at $5.58 [8] - The company has 2.7 million connected fitness subscribers and over 500,000 digital app memberships, both of which are declining [9] Potential Acquisition - Peloton could be considered a buyout target, with a hypothetical acquisition cost of about $3 billion assuming a 25% premium [2] - Apple, with a market cap of $3.8 trillion, could find financial sense in acquiring Peloton, as the purchase price is negligible compared to its net income of $42 billion in Q1 2026 [4] Strategic Fit - The integration of Peloton's digital app into Apple's Fitness+ and the potential for Peloton equipment to be sold in Apple stores could enhance Apple's product portfolio [5] - The acquisition aligns with Apple's vision of health being a significant contribution to mankind, as stated by CEO Tim Cook [6] Market Considerations - Despite the strategic advantages, the limited total addressable market for high-priced exercise equipment and workout content may not significantly impact Apple's broader business [9] - Apple's existing offerings, such as the Apple Watch and Fitness+, indicate a focus on a wide target market, which may overshadow Peloton's niche [8]

Core Viewpoint - Apple Inc. reported strong financial results but saw minimal stock movement due to investor skepticism regarding the impact of artificial intelligence on future growth [1][4]. Financial Performance - Apple reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $143.76 billion, exceeding Wall Street expectations of $138.42 billion, with earnings of $2.84 per share, surpassing estimates of $2.66 [2]. - Revenue increased by 16% year over year, while earnings rose by 19% [2]. Guidance and Market Reaction - The company provided stronger-than-expected guidance, forecasting March-quarter revenue growth of 13% to 16% and gross margins of 48% to 49% [3]. - Despite these positive indicators, Apple shares gained less than 1% in after-hours trading [3]. Investor Sentiment - Investor skepticism is attributed to a lack of clear evidence on how AI will significantly impact Apple's business, rather than dissatisfaction with financial performance [4]. - Customers are reportedly satisfied and continue to upgrade devices, but investors are looking for clearer AI milestones [5][8]. AI Strategy and Expectations - The muted stock reaction is linked to the credibility gap created by Apple's previous AI announcements, which raised expectations that were not met [6]. - CEO Tim Cook provided limited updates on AI during the earnings call, mentioning a revamped Siri powered by Apple Intelligence would arrive "this year" without further details [7]. Regional Performance - A notable rebound in China revenue was reported, increasing by 38% year over year, alongside growth in Apple's installed base, which now exceeds 2.5 billion active devices [8].

Core Viewpoint - The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) and the Fidelity MSCI Information Technology Index ETF (FTEC) provide different investment strategies within the technology sector, with SOXX focusing solely on semiconductor companies and FTEC covering a broader range of tech stocks [1] Cost & Size - SOXX has an expense ratio of 0.34% and AUM of $18 billion, while FTEC has a lower expense ratio of 0.08% and AUM of $17 billion [2] - The 1-year return for SOXX is 52.84%, significantly higher than FTEC's 20.80% [2] - SOXX offers a dividend yield of 0.57%, compared to FTEC's 0.43% [3] Performance & Risk Comparison - SOXX has a maximum drawdown of -45.75% over 5 years, while FTEC's maximum drawdown is -34.95% [4] - An investment of $1,000 in SOXX would grow to $2,573 over 5 years, compared to $2,133 for FTEC [4] Composition of Funds - FTEC holds 289 stocks, with 98% in technology, 1% in communication services, and a small portion in industrials, featuring top positions like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple [5] - SOXX is concentrated with only 30 holdings, all in the semiconductor sector, with top stocks including Nvidia, Micron Technology, and Advanced Micro Devices [6] Implications for Investors - FTEC's broader approach with nearly 10 times as many holdings as SOXX offers greater diversification, potentially reducing risk and volatility during market downturns [7] - SOXX's focused strategy on semiconductor stocks can yield high returns during industry booms, as evidenced by its performance over the last 12 months, which has more than doubled that of FTEC [8]

Core Viewpoint - Apple maintains a strong position in the consumer tech industry despite criticisms regarding its AI advancements, with a significant distribution advantage through its vast number of active devices [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Strategy and Financials - Apple is taking a cautious approach to AI investments, with capital expenditures of $12.7 billion in fiscal 2025 [1]. - The company has not introduced major AI features, leading to criticism, particularly regarding the delay of its AI-powered Siri [2]. Group 2: Distribution Advantage - As of a year ago, Apple had 2.35 billion active devices globally, with the installed base continuing to grow [3]. - The iPhone accounts for approximately half of Apple's product revenue, suggesting there are over 1 billion active iPhones [3][4]. - This extensive distribution network provides Apple with a significant competitive edge, as the iPhone remains a crucial device for consumers worldwide [4][8]. Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - Despite the rapid growth of AI technologies, the smartphone, particularly the iPhone, is expected to remain the most important device for consumers [8]. - Apple's competitive moat is strengthened by its brand recognition and ecosystem, which is likely to endure even as AI influences the economy and society [9].

Market Overview - The S&P 500 closed lower on Friday but was slightly higher for the week, with a 0.34% gain for the week and a 1.37% gain for January, briefly topping 7,000 for the first time ever [1] - The Nasdaq was flat for the week and gained 0.95% for January [1] Tech Earnings - Meta Platforms reported earnings that exceeded estimates, leading to a nearly 9% increase in its stock, while Microsoft saw an 8% drop due to disappointing results from its cloud computing business [1] - Apple broke an eight-week losing streak with a strong quarter driven by a 23% increase in iPhone sales, but concerns over memory shortages impacted its stock [1] - GE Vernova and Corning reached all-time highs, with Corning's stock rising after a $6 billion deal with Meta [1] Non-Tech Companies - Starbucks shares fell over 6% despite a promising quarter and a bullish Investor Day, indicating potential for a buying opportunity if the decline continues [1] - Honeywell shares reached an all-time high following a strong earnings report and news of accelerated aerospace spinoff plans, gaining nearly 3% for the week [1] - Dover's stock fell over 2% due to profit-taking after a strong earnings report, while Danaher and Boeing closed lower for the week [1] Software Sector - The software sector faced significant sell-offs, with Salesforce dropping 7% and ServiceNow falling 10% despite better-than-expected results [1] - Concerns over AI-driven disruptions led to a revaluation of SaaS companies, compressing price-to-earnings ratios [1] - Cybersecurity stocks like Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike also declined, but were viewed as buying opportunities [1] Federal Reserve Developments - The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady after three consecutive rate cuts, with Chairman Jerome Powell noting solid economic activity and stabilization in the unemployment rate [1] - President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell, which is seen as a more hawkish move, impacting gold and silver prices negatively [1]

Core Viewpoint - Apple reported record first quarter results driven by unprecedented iPhone sales, leading to all-time high revenue, but faces challenges due to global memory chip shortages [1][5]. Financial Performance - Apple's Q1 sales reached $143.8 billion, surpassing Wall Street estimates of $138.4 billion, with iPhone sales contributing $85.3 billion [5]. - Revenue from iPhone grew 23% year-over-year, achieving record sales across all geographic segments [6]. Supply Chain Challenges - CEO Tim Cook indicated that the global memory chip shortage is impacting the company, with expectations of continued effects in the current quarter and beyond [2]. - The company is experiencing supply shortages of advanced processors for the iPhone 17, exacerbated by high demand for tech hardware driven by AI developments [3][4]. - Apple is in a "supply chase mode" to meet high customer demand due to low channel inventory at the end of the December quarter [4]. Memory Chip Market Dynamics - Memory chip prices are anticipated to rise significantly in the coming quarters, which may force Apple to either absorb the costs, affecting future margins, or increase iPhone prices [3]. - The tech industry's AI data center expansion is consuming large quantities of memory chips, creating scarcity that affects prices and availability for other tech companies, including Apple [7][9].

在总结苹果创下历史最佳季度成绩的同时，库克表示，接下来一年里，苹果将带来一些"前所未见的创新"，并强调苹果"最好作品还在后面"。 更关键的是，今年苹果的新品确实是有点不一样。 从以往经验来看，这类表态多少带着稳定市场预期的意味，几乎每次财报电话会议都会出现类似的乐观言论。但这一次，库克用词明显更激进，"前所未 见"这样的说法并不常见。 按照目前产业链和媒体报道的信息，2026 年很可能是苹果近年来新品密度最高的一年之一。本周刚发布的第二代 AirTag 只是开场，后面还有超过 20 款新 品在路上。 其中最受关注的，无疑是苹果首款折叠屏 iPhone。这款产品预计将在今年秋季随 iPhone 18 Pro 一同亮相。 概念设计 不论是产品形态、交互方式，还是定位，折叠屏 iPhone 都会是 iPhone 产品线中有史以来最大的一个变化。外界普遍认为，苹果会在折叠结构、屏幕折痕控 制和系统适配上做出明显差异化，而不是简单跟随安卓路线。 在苹果本周的财报电话会议上，Tim Cook 罕见地抛出了一句分量不轻的话。 与此同时，传闻已久的苹果首款智能眼镜也有望在今年首次亮相，虽然真正上市时间可能要等到 2027 年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 closed lower on Friday following earnings reports from major tech companies such as Apple, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Nasdaq rose by 0.4% for the week, indicating a slight positive performance in the tech sector [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.7% over the same period, reflecting a decline in traditional industrial stocks [1]