The plunge is punishing some stocks far more than is merited. That spells opportunity for level-headed investors.Panicked yet? It would be a little surprising if you weren't at least a bit. Now down more than 10% from its most recent peak, the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) is officially in correction territory. Such big tumbles often precede even more weakness, even if that continued selling is only rooted in fear, and the result of a self-fulfilling prophecy.However, the Nasdaq's steep pullback is ...

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 参考链接 来源：内容编译自 gurufocus ，谢谢。 全球人工智能 (AI) 的激增正在推动芯片市场发生重大转变，博通和英伟达引领了这一潮流。博通 最近发布的 2025 财年第一季度财报强调，AI 相关收入大幅增加。与此同时，英伟达凭借其通用 GPU 继续在 AI 芯片领域占据主导地位。这场竞争代表了两种截然不同的战略：博通的定制 ASIC 芯片和英伟达的多功能 GPU 解决方案。 以强大的 GPU 和 CUDA 生态系统而闻名的 Nvidia 在其 2025 财年第四季度报告中称，总收入增 长 78%，达到 393 亿美元。该公司的数据中心收入增长了约 90%，达到 350 亿美元。然而，高 能耗和内存带宽限制等挑战（尤其是在其 H100 芯片上）正变得越来越明显。 另一方面，博通专注于为特定 AI 工作负载设计的定制 ASIC。在其第一季度报告中，博通的 AI 相关收入达到 41 亿美元，占其 146 亿美元总收入的 28%。该公司声称，与一般加速器相比，其 ASIC 在矩阵运算等任务中的效率提高了 50% 以上，功耗降低了约 30%。 人工智能芯片市场正逐渐 ...

Core Insights - Nvidia holds a significant share in AI training and inference markets, but competition from hyperscale computing companies developing their own XPU raises questions about sustainability [1] - Broadcom and Marvell are positioned to benefit from the demand for custom CPUs and XPUs, collaborating with major cloud providers like AWS, Google, Meta, and Microsoft [2][3] - The cost-effectiveness of these custom solutions must be significantly lower than existing offerings from Intel, AMD, Nvidia, and AMD to be viable [3] Financial Performance - Broadcom reported Q1 FY2025 sales of $14.92 billion, a 24.7% increase year-over-year, with profits reaching $5.5 billion, up 4.2 times from the previous year [5] - Marvell's Q4 FY2025 sales were $1.82 billion, a 19.9% quarter-over-quarter increase, with a net income of $200 million, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses [16] AI Revenue Growth - Broadcom's AI chip sales reached $4.12 billion in Q1 FY2025, a 77% year-over-year increase, while other semiconductor sales declined by 19.2% [11] - Marvell's AI revenue for FY2025 is projected to be around $1.85 billion, with expectations to exceed $3 billion in FY2026, driven by custom AI XPU and optical products [18][20] Market Dynamics - The IT industry is characterized by demanding clients seeking high service levels at low costs, which influences the pricing and development of custom CPUs and XPUs [3] - Broadcom's AI business is comparable in scale to Marvell's entire business, but Marvell's data center segment is rapidly growing [3][5] Future Outlook - Broadcom anticipates stable revenue of $14.9 billion for Q2 FY2025, with a projected 19.3% year-over-year growth [14] - Marvell's success in securing new hyperscale clients and developing shared AI XPU designs will be crucial for future revenue growth [20]

Market Overview - The Nasdaq Composite has experienced a rough start to the year, dropping approximately 3.8% year-to-date and about 7.5% from its all-time high, nearing a technical correction of 10% [1] Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) - AMD's stock has seen a 55% decline over the past year due to struggles in its gaming and embedded segments, along with a forecasted sequential revenue decline [3][4] - Despite the downturn, AMD's data center segment is showing signs of recovery, with revenue growth in Q4 2024 increasing by 24% to $7.7 billion, up from just 9% growth in Q2 [5] - The decline in AMD's embedded segment has lessened, with a yearly revenue drop of 41% in Q2 reducing to 13% in Q4 [6] - AMD's valuation metrics are becoming attractive, with a forward P/E ratio of 22, suggesting that the current 55% discount in its stock may not last long [7] Broadcom - Broadcom's stock has recently fallen by 27%, presenting a buying opportunity for long-term investors [8][9] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growth of artificial intelligence, with an estimated AI-related revenue opportunity of $60 billion to $90 billion by 2027, up from $12.2 billion in 2024 [10] - Broadcom's diverse business model, with 42% of its 2024 revenue coming from software, helps mitigate the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry [11] - The recent decline has lowered Broadcom's PEG ratio to 1.7, indicating it is reasonably priced for high-quality stocks [12] Amazon - Amazon's stock is viewed as appealing during market volatility, with a recent decline attributed to poor economic data and concerns over tariffs and AI stocks [14][15] - Historically, Amazon has recovered from significant pullbacks, with a $10,000 investment at the start of 2023 now worth over $24,000 despite recent sell-offs [17] - Amazon's fundamentals remain strong, with a well-managed and diversified business model across e-commerce, cloud services, and advertising [18]

Core Viewpoint - Broadcom's FY2025 Q1 results exceeded expectations with revenue of $14.916 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6% [1][5][12] - The company's AI business revenue grew significantly, with a 77% year-on-year increase to $4.1 billion, driven by strong demand from hyperscale data centers [2][6][11] Group 1: Financial Performance - FY2025 Q1 revenue reached $14.916 billion, surpassing previous guidance of approximately $14.6 billion [1][12] - Gross margin for the quarter was 79.1%, up 3.74 percentage points year-on-year and 2.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, benefiting from increased infrastructure software revenue and a favorable semiconductor revenue mix [1][12] - Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $10.1 billion, representing 68% of revenue, higher than the previously guided 66% [13][15] Group 2: Semiconductor Division - Semiconductor revenue was $8.2 billion, accounting for 55% of total revenue, with an 11% year-on-year increase and a gross margin of approximately 68% [2][12] - AI-related semiconductor revenue was $4.1 billion, up 77% year-on-year, driven by strong shipments to hyperscale data centers [2][6] - Non-AI semiconductor revenue was $4.1 billion, down 9% quarter-on-quarter due to seasonal declines in wireless business [9][12] Group 3: Infrastructure Software Division - Infrastructure software revenue was $6.7 billion, representing 45% of total revenue, with a 47% year-on-year increase [2][10] - The gross margin for infrastructure software was 92.5%, reflecting a shift from perpetual licenses to a subscription model [10][11] - VMware's revenue significantly contributed to the growth in infrastructure software [10][11] Group 4: Future Guidance - For FY2025 Q2, the company expects revenue to be approximately $14.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19% and flat quarter-on-quarter [3][15] - Semiconductor revenue is projected to be $8.4 billion, with AI revenue expected to reach $4.4 billion, a 44% year-on-year increase [3][15] - Infrastructure software revenue is anticipated to be around $6.5 billion, a 23% year-on-year increase [3][15] Group 5: Market Opportunities - By 2027, the addressable market for three hyperscale customers is expected to reach $60-90 billion, with four new customers currently in the pipeline [3][7] - The company is focusing on developing the first 2nm AI XPU and has doubled the capacity of existing Tomahawk 5 switches to support AI customers [7][27] - The trend towards AI is driving significant investments in hardware and infrastructure, with companies increasingly recognizing the need to run AI workloads on-premises [19][28]

Core Insights - Broadcom (AVGO) reported first-quarter fiscal 2025 non-GAAP earnings of $1.60 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.67% and marking a 45.5% year-over-year increase [1] - The company achieved net revenues of $14.9 billion, a 25% year-over-year increase, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.03% [2] - AVGO shares rose over 12.82% in after-hours trading to $202.45 following positive second-quarter fiscal 2025 guidance [3] Revenue Breakdown - Semiconductor solutions revenues, accounting for 55% of net revenues, reached $8.2 billion, an 11% year-over-year increase, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.56% [4] - AI-related revenues surged 77% year over year to $4.1 billion, significantly contributing to overall revenue growth driven by increased shipments to hyperscalers for AI applications [4] - Infrastructure software revenues, making up 45% of net revenues, rose 47% year over year to $6.7 billion, supported by the VMware acquisition and strong demand for infrastructure solutions [6] Operating Performance - Non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 79.1%, a 370 basis points increase year over year [7] - Adjusted EBITDA increased 40.9% year over year to $10.1 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 67.6%, up 780 basis points [7] - Non-GAAP operating margin grew 880 basis points year over year to 65.9% [7] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - As of February 2, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $9.31 billion, slightly down from $9.35 billion as of November 3, 2024 [8] - Total debt was $66.58 billion, down from $67.57 billion as of November 3, 2024 [9] - The company generated $6.11 billion in cash flow from operations, compared to $5.60 billion in the previous quarter, with free cash flow at $6.01 billion [9] Future Guidance - For the second quarter of fiscal 2025, Broadcom expects revenues of $14.9 billion, indicating a 19% increase year over year [10] - AI semiconductor revenues are projected to grow 44% year over year to $4.4 billion, while non-AI semiconductor revenues are expected to reach $4 billion [10] - Infrastructure software revenues are anticipated to grow 23% year over year to $6.5 billion [10]

点击注册小程序 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 1）FY25Q1：公司营收149.16亿美元，YoY+25%，QoQ+6%，超彭博一致预期的146.15亿美元；调整后 EBITDA 100.83亿美元，YoY+41%，QoQ+11%，超彭博一致预期96.25亿美元；Non-GAAP净利润78.23亿 美元，YoY+49%，QoQ+12%。2）FY25Q2指引：营收149亿美元，YoY+19%；调整后息税折摊前利润率 66%，QoQ -2pct。 报告摘要 Marvell数据中心市场收入高速增长，ASIC定制芯片需求强劲 分业务看： 1）半导体业务FY25Q1收入82亿美元，YoY+11%，其中人工智能收入41亿美元，YoY+77%，超出38亿美 元的指引；非人工智能收入41亿美元，QoQ-9%。公 ...

Core Viewpoint - Broadcom's stock surged 13% in after-hours trading following a strong earnings report, driven by robust AI spending, positioning the company as an attractive long-term investment in the AI hardware sector [1][2]. Financial Performance - Broadcom reported Q1 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $1.60, exceeding expectations by $0.09, with revenues of $14.916 billion, surpassing forecasts by $330 million [2][3]. - The company's net income reached $14.92 billion, a 25% year-over-year increase, attributed to significant investments in AI hardware by data centers and hyperscale enterprises [2][3]. - Free cash flow for Q1 2025 was $6 billion, up 28% year-over-year, indicating improved cash flow margins with a free cash flow margin of 40% [4][5]. Market Position and Growth Potential - Broadcom is a key player in the AI infrastructure market, providing essential hardware components for data centers, networks, and software markets [6]. - The company expects a 19% average annual revenue growth rate from FY 2025 to FY 2029, driven by ongoing AI investments [6]. - Broadcom's current P/E ratio stands at 23.62, higher than its three-year average of 17.9, suggesting potential for valuation upside if revenue and cash flow growth continue [6]. Risks and Future Outlook - The primary risk for Broadcom is a potential slowdown in AI spending, which could impact core business performance and cash flow growth [7]. - Despite the high P/E ratio, Broadcom's long-term growth potential remains strong, benefiting from accelerated AI spending and a favorable market outlook [7].

Core Viewpoint - Samsung Electronics is collaborating with Broadcom to develop Silicon Photonics technology, which is expected to enhance data processing speeds by over 10 times, marking it as a key manufacturing technology for the next generation of foundry services [1][2]. Group 1: Collaboration and Technology Development - Samsung and Broadcom aim to achieve mass production and commercialization of Silicon Photonics technology within two years, with Samsung also discussing technology implementation with NVIDIA [1]. - Broadcom's strength in wireless and optical communication semiconductors, which contribute approximately 30% and 10% to its overall revenue respectively, will be leveraged in the partnership with Samsung [1]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Samsung is striving to enhance its competitiveness in advanced process technologies as it faces a widening market share gap with TSMC, which has secured most orders from global tech giants [2][3]. - TSMC's early development of Silicon Photonics technology and its partnerships with companies like Apple and NVIDIA have positioned it advantageously in the advanced process competition [3]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Challenges - As the semiconductor industry moves below the 3nm process, new technologies like Silicon Photonics are crucial for maximizing power efficiency and signal processing speed, especially with the growing demand for AI technologies [3]. - Samsung is currently 1 to 2 years behind TSMC in the commercialization timeline for Silicon Photonics, with TSMC planning to establish a production line by June this year [3].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was a record $14.9 billion, up 25% year on year [7][26] - Consolidated adjusted EBITDA reached a record $10.1 billion, up 41% year on year [7] - Gross margin was 79.1% of revenue, better than guidance due to higher infrastructure software revenue and a favorable semiconductor revenue mix [27] - Operating income was $9.8 billion, up 44% year on year, with an operating margin of 66% [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Semiconductor revenue was $8.2 billion, representing 55% of total revenue, up 11% year on year [28] - AI revenue within the semiconductor segment was $4.1 billion, up 77% year on year, with expectations for Q2 AI revenue to grow to $4.4 billion, up 44% year on year [7][16] - Infrastructure software revenue was $6.7 billion, up 47% year on year, driven by VMware integration [20][30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Non-AI semiconductor revenue was $4.1 billion, down 9% sequentially due to seasonal declines in wireless [16] - Broadband showed a double-digit sequential recovery, while server storage was down single digits but expected to rise in Q2 [17] - Enterprise networking remained flat, and wireless was flat year on year, with expectations for Q2 to remain the same [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is increasing R&D investments in AI technologies, focusing on next-generation accelerators and networking solutions [8][37] - Broadcom aims to support hyperscale customers in developing AI clusters, with a serviceable addressable market estimated between $60 billion to $90 billion by fiscal 2027 [11][12] - The strategy includes transitioning from perpetual licenses to full subscription models in software, with a focus on VMware's VCF [21][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the AI market, noting strong demand from hyperscalers and ongoing investments in AI infrastructure [8][63] - Concerns about geopolitical tensions and tariffs were acknowledged, but management indicated no immediate impact on current design wins or shipments [62][86] - The company expects total semiconductor revenue to grow 2% sequentially and 17% year on year in Q2, with infrastructure software revenue expected to be approximately $6.5 billion, up 23% year on year [19][24] Other Important Information - Free cash flow for Q1 was $6 billion, representing 40% of revenue [32] - The company ended Q1 with $9.3 billion in cash and $68.8 billion in gross principal debt, having reduced debt by a net $1.1 billion during the quarter [34] - The company paid $2.8 billion in cash dividends and repurchased $2 billion worth of shares [35] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about the trend you're seeing with new customers? - Management noted that the four new engagements are not yet defined as customers, as they are still in the development phase [41][46] Question: Can you provide insights on the second half AI profile? - Management refrained from speculation but indicated that improved networking shipments are encouraging for Q2 [52][56] Question: Are you seeing disruption from tariffs and other dynamics? - Management acknowledged concerns but emphasized that the current disruption is positive, driven by generative AI advancements [62][63] Question: How do you view design wins and deployments? - Management clarified that design wins are only counted when products are in production at scale, emphasizing a selective approach to partnerships [78][81] Question: Are there concerns about new regulations impacting shipments? - Management expressed no current concerns regarding regulations affecting existing design wins [86] Question: How do you see the importance of networking in AI deployments? - Management highlighted that performance is the primary driver for hyperscalers when selecting networking solutions [98][100] Question: Will the new customer engagements impact the projected unit growth? - Management confirmed that the new engagements are not included in the current market estimates, as they are still in the partner phase [108]