Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [8] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, copper production increased by 2% year-on-year to 516,200 tons, with a full-year production forecast of 2,016,700 tons, an 8% increase compared to the previous year [2][11] - Nickel production in Q2 2025 saw a significant decline of 99% year-on-year, totaling 300 tons, due to temporary shutdowns [3][12] - Iron ore production reached 70.3 million tons in Q2 2025, a 2% increase year-on-year, with a full-year forecast of 263 million tons, reflecting a 1% increase [4][13] - Coking coal production increased by 5% year-on-year to 10.3 million tons in Q2 2025, while full-year production is expected to decrease by 19% to 36 million tons [5][14] - Thermal coal production rose by 8% year-on-year to 4.1 million tons in Q2 2025, with a full-year forecast of 15 million tons, a 2% decrease [6][15] Summary by Sections Copper - Q2 2025 copper production was 516,200 tons, up 2% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Average realized price for copper was $4.43 per pound, down 3% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [19] Nickel - Q2 2025 nickel production was 300 tons, down 99% year-on-year and 87% quarter-on-quarter [3] - Full-year nickel production forecast is 30,200 tons, a 63% decrease compared to the previous year [12] Iron Ore - Q2 2025 iron ore production was 70.3 million tons, up 2% year-on-year and 14% quarter-on-quarter [4] - Average realized price for iron ore was $79.93 per wet ton, down 12% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter [19] Coking Coal - Q2 2025 coking coal production was 10.3 million tons, up 5% year-on-year and 31% quarter-on-quarter [5] - Average realized price for coking coal was $177.32 per ton, down 28% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter [19] Thermal Coal - Q2 2025 thermal coal production was 4.1 million tons, up 8% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter [6] - Average realized price for thermal coal was $85.70 per ton, down 31% year-on-year and 12% quarter-on-quarter [19] Major Projects - The Jansen project is progressing, with 68% completion of the JS1 project, and capital expenditure expected to rise to between $7 billion and $7.4 billion [16]

Group 1 - LME copper prices rose to a one-week high, closing at $9,778.50 per ton, up $112.00 or 1.16% due to increased investor risk appetite and bargain buying [1][2] - Other base metals also saw price increases, with three-month aluminum up 2.00% to $2,629.50, zinc up 2.98% to $2,818.50, and lead up 1.88% to $2,010.00 [2] - BHP Group reported a slight increase in copper production for the fourth quarter, reaching 516,200 tons, up 2.25% year-on-year, and an annual copper production of 2,016,700 tons, an 8% increase from the previous fiscal year [4] Group 2 - Analysts noted that U.S. economic data has improved, boosting hopes for better copper demand and reducing the likelihood of immediate interest rate cuts [4] - LME copper inventories have been rising, particularly in Asian warehouses, as some traders bet on increased buying following recent price declines, though uncertainty remains about whether this will materialize [4] - Peru's copper production fell by 4.6% year-on-year in May, totaling 220,849 tons, highlighting challenges in one of the world's largest copper-producing countries [5] Group 3 - Nickel prices underperformed due to rising inventories and weak demand, with Commerzbank lowering its nickel price forecast for the end of 2025 from $18,000 to $16,000 per ton [6] - Three-month aluminum reached a three-week high of $2,637 per ton, reflecting positive market sentiment [7]

Core Insights - BHP announced the latest cost and progress estimates for the first phase of the Jansen potash project in Canada, indicating that the phase is 68% complete [1] - The projected capital expenditure for the project has increased to between $7 billion and $7.4 billion, including unexpected costs, compared to the initial estimate of $5.7 billion [1] - The first production date has been pushed back to mid-2027, aligning with the original timeline [1] - The group's capital expenditure guidance for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 remains at $11 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - BHP reported record production levels for iron ore and copper in its annual operational review for the year ending June 30, 2025, highlighting significant achievements in its operations [1] Group 1: Iron Ore Production - BHP's iron ore business in Western Australia set multiple records, including annual production [1] - The overall performance in iron ore indicates strong operational efficiency and capacity utilization [1] Group 2: Copper Production - Copper production exceeded 2 million tons, marking a significant milestone for the company [1] - The Escondida copper mine in Chile achieved its highest production level in 17 years, showcasing the mine's recovery and operational improvements [1] - The Spence copper mine also reached a record high in production, contributing to the overall increase in copper output [1]

Group 1 - BHP Group reported record high production of iron ore and copper for the fiscal year, demonstrating the company's operational strength and resilience amid global uncertainties [1][2] - The company produced over 2 million tons of copper, with significant contributions from the Escondida copper mine in Chile, which reached its highest output in 17 years [1][2] - BHP's total copper production for the fiscal year was 2.0167 million tons, an 8% increase from the previous fiscal year's 1.865 million tons [2][3] Group 2 - The demand for global commodities remains resilient, driven by renewable energy investments, grid construction, strong machinery exports, and electric vehicle sales [2] - Despite potential economic slowdowns and trade tensions, stimulus measures from China and the U.S. are expected to mitigate short-term impacts on demand [2] - BHP's fourth-quarter copper production was 516,200 tons, up from 510,800 tons in the previous quarter and 2.25% higher than the same quarter last year [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - BHP's fourth-quarter and annual operational report indicates rising costs and delays in its Canadian potash project, while iron ore and copper production have slightly increased, reaching historical highs [1][2]. Group 1: Potash Project - BHP has invested heavily in the potash sector, completing 68% of the Jansen project phase one, with estimated costs rising from $5.7 billion to between $7 billion and $7.4 billion [1]. - Potential oversupply in the market may delay the phase two execution of the Jansen project by two years [1]. - The company is considering extending the execution timeline for phase two of the Jansen project as part of its regular review of capital projects [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Production - In the fourth quarter, BHP's iron ore production reached 70.3 million tons, bringing the fiscal year 2025 iron ore production to 263 million tons, close to the upper limit of its guidance range [1]. - The fiscal year 2024 iron ore production is projected at 260 million tons, reflecting a growth rate of 1% [1]. - BHP's Western Australia iron ore operations set multiple records, including annual production [1]. Group 3: Copper Production - BHP's copper production increased by 2% in the fourth quarter, with the Escondida project in Chile achieving its highest annual output in 17 years [2]. - Total annual copper production exceeded 2 million tons, marking an 8% year-on-year increase and setting a new record [2]. - The CEO highlighted the resilience of global commodity demand since 2025, despite challenges in the market [2].

Group 1 - BHP's copper production is expected to reach a record high of over 2 million tons in the fiscal year 2025, marking a significant milestone for the company [1] - Despite the anticipated record production, BHP has issued a warning about a potential decline in copper output for the following year, indicating a shift in market supply and demand expectations [1]

Production Performance - BHP Group's iron ore output, a key revenue driver, increased by 2% compared to the previous year's quarter [1]

Group 1 - Company BHP has raised the capital expenditure expectation for the first phase of the Jansen Potash project in Canada to $7-7.4 billion, up from the initial estimate of $5.7 billion [1] - The Jansen first phase project is expected to commence production in the mid-2027 fiscal year [1] - The company anticipates total capital and exploration expenditures of approximately $11 billion for the year [1]

Group 1 - The company expects copper production at the Escondida mine to be between 1.15 million and 1.25 million tons for the fiscal year 2026 [1] - The company anticipates copper production for the fourth quarter to be 516,200 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 2% [1] - The company projects energy coal production for the fourth quarter to be 4.1 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8% [1]